Ray N. Walker
Analyst · Simmons & Company
Thanks, Jeff. Over the last few calls, I've discussed many of the technologies that we've introduced down hole, things like RCS completions, enhanced frac designs, better targeting and increasingly longer laterals. Not only do our teams do a great job down hole, they are also making impressive strides on the surface. One of the best measures of that performance is direct operating expense, and compared to the prior-year quarter, our direct operating expenses on a per unit basis are down 15%. In the southern Marcellus, we averaged 166 frac stages per month in 2012. And this year with the same amount of frac crews and equipment, we're averaging 196 stages per month, which is a staggering 18% improvement at this stage of the development. Last year, our facilities team, who developed the first 0-vapor protocol designs in the basin, was building facilities that already exceeded the new EPA standards, which in and of itself is a great accomplishment. Recently, they fine-tuned that design, resulting in a 20% upgrade in condensate pricing at some of our sites. And they're working on expanding that application, which we expect to add real value going forward. They were also able to realize a 15% reduction in facility costs this year at the same time. On the land side, we're developing 75% more acreage per pad year-over-year. So when considering operating expenses, facility designs, logistics, marketing and even the efficiency of which we're developing our acreage, I believe our teams are among the best out there, and I want to congratulate all our teams across the company. We are exceeding our operating targets across-the-board. Third quarter production for the company came in at 960 million cubic feet equivalent per day with 23% liquids, which was above the high end of our guidance, which was 940 million to 950 million with 22% liquids. We can attribute the exceptional growth to better-than-expected timing, along with increasingly strong well performance both occurring in southwest Pennsylvania. Marcellus production for the third quarter averaged 756 million cubic feet equivalent per day, net to Range, and for the first 9 months of this year, averaged 718 million. When compared to the same time period in 2012, that's a 40% increase year-over-year in our Marcellus production. Additionally, we reached another major milestone in the Marcellus where over a period of several days, we produced over 1 million gallons per day of NGLs, net to Range, with an additional 8,300 barrels per day of condensate. In northeast Pennsylvania, we have 1 rig running. During the third quarter, we brought online a step-out well in Lycoming County with a 24-hour IP of 23 million a day and a 30-day average rate of 15 million a day. At 60 days, the well cumed over 3/4 of the Bcf. In the last couple of weeks, we brought online 2 more wells on that same pad under constrained conditions at a combined rate of over 42 million a day. The average IP to sales of those 3 wells, again all were under constrained conditions, is 22 million a day with an average lateral length of 5,000 foot, 23 stages and an average revenue interest of 86%. As we further develop this area with longer laterals and more stages, we expect even better returns. In the super-rich area in southwest Pennsylvania, we brought online 24 wells in the third quarter, with an average IP to sales of 2,657 Boe per day, with 66% liquids. Now just for clarification, all the rates that I quote today for the super-rich and wet areas of the Marcellus include 80% ethane extraction. The average 24-hour IPs during the third quarter were 43% higher, with condensate rates being 54% higher than the previous quarter. That's a really impressive group of wells. And again, my congratulations to the southern Marcellus team for a job very well done. The 17 super-rich wells that we've been tracking in our presentation and over the last few calls are still holding up nicely and performing well above the 2012 curve. With 240 days online, those wells are 43% above the curve, and we've updated that information on Slide #18 in the presentation. Specifically at the last call, I announced the brand-new, super-rich well that had just IP-ed that week at over 5,700 Boe per day with 63% liquids. As a further update, for the first 30 days, the well averaged over 2,700 Boe per day with 61% liquids and cumed almost half a Bcf equivalent. And at 60 days, the well averaged over 2,100 Boe per day with 60% liquids and cumed over 3/4 of a Bcf equivalent. As further confirmation of that area, that well was 1 well of a 4-well pad that had an average 24-hour IP per well of 4,143 Boe per day with 63% liquids, which is including 571 barrels per day of condensate per well. After 60 days, the 4 wells on the pad averaged almost 2,000 Boe per day with 61% liquids each. The average lateral length is a little over 4,000 feet with 22 stages. Again, here's another example of some really strong wells that support our belief that we've not drilled our best wells yet, as we continue to see better and better results. I'd like to call your attention to the fact that we've added a new slide in our presentation on Page 17, showing our top-10, super-rich Marcellus wells. When comparing on a 24-hour IP basis, we have 5 of the top-10 wells in the basin, including the Utica. On a normalized initial production rate per thousand foot of lateral basis, we have 8 of the top 10 liquids-rich wells in the basin. Again, we use 80% ethane recovery in our numbers and only considered wells with more than 60% liquids. Also, the range IPs are based on actual 24-hour production to sales, and in most all cases, our wells start out constrained by facilities. Our super-rich wells are already basin-leading wells, as you can see by this data. But as we drill longer laterals and continue to see improvements like we've seen over the last year, there's no doubt that our super-rich acreage position is a class-leading asset that would yield even greater value than we see today. We've now released gas in place or sometimes referred to hydrocarbon in place maps for each horizon -- the Marcellus, the Upper Devonian and the Utica -- that also show our perspective acreage in each case. All this is shown on Pages 11 to 14 in our presentation, so let me walk you through those now. When you look at the Marcellus gas in place map, you not only see southwest and northeast PA as 2 distinct core areas from a gas in place standpoint, they have also proven to be core from a productivity standpoint, even though they exhibit different reservoir characteristics. You can definitely see the high gas in place area in northeast PA with highly productive dry gas wells. You also have southwest Pennsylvania as a highly productive area. Even though the gas in place is not as high in southwest Pennsylvania and the reservoir is thinner, the porosity and permeability are much higher than exhibited in northeast Pennsylvania, and you have the additional enhancement of the liquids and condensate. There are now over 7,000 wells with data supporting both these areas as being core and highly productive. Looking at the Upper Devonian, you see the highest gas in place area in southwest Pennsylvania, where Range drilled the first horizontal in 2009. We have tons of data on the Upper Devonian as we drill through it on our way to the Marcellus, and we continue to believe that it'll be highly productive. We've done significant testing and have cracked the code as we announced earlier this year with a 10 million cubic feet equivalent per day Upper Devonian horizontal well, with 60% liquids in the super-rich area, yielding what we believe is tremendous upside potential going forward. There's also been significant testing of the Upper Devonian throughout the basin, validating what we show in this analysis. Range also drilled the first horizontal in the Utica in 2009, leading us to be the first to recognize the stacked pay potential of the Utica/Point Pleasant underneath southwest Pennsylvania. When you analyze the data and all the offset activities, the largest amount of hydrocarbon in place in the Utica is centered across our 540,000 net acre position in southwest Pennsylvania, namely, in Washington County. This may seem a little contrary because most of the Utica activity to-date has been targeting the liquids-rich portion of the play because that's where everyone got started. There hasn't been a lot of dry gas Utica drilling, simply because most of it's located under the Range Marcellus activity in southwest Pennsylvania. Recently, we've seen a nearby well completed in the dry Utica/Point Pleasant making 11 million a day with only 8 stages that confirms our analysis. Under our Washington County acreage, we have the Point Pleasant interval, which is the key productive interval that's over 140-foot thick, with early estimates of over 150 Bcf of gas in place at high pressure at approximately 10,700 feet. And we now have a confirmation well nearby, all of which equals what we believe is really good potential for high volume, high return gas production. With longer laterals and enhanced completion designs, we believe the Utica/Point Pleasant and Washington County is very perspective, and we're currently working on plans to drill a horizontal Utica/Point Pleasant well in southwest Pennsylvania in 2014. When you stack all 3 plays together on Page 14, the largest gas in place in the basin is clearly in southwest Pennsylvania, namely under the Range acreage position. We secure all rights to all depths since we drilled Marcellus wells. A real upside going forward is that we expect significant gains and capital efficiency as we go back and develop the Upper Devonian and the Utica/Point Pleasant as much as the infrastructure of roads, pads, midstream and water will already be in place and paid for. Again, all of these yielding substantial durability in our growth projections with low investment risk. We control all the horizons in the highest gas in place acreage in the basin, and we have great diversity with super-rich, wet and dry gas production, all with some of the best returns in the basin and getting better. On the midstream and marketing front, we and our partners are doing well in staying in front of our capacity needs. We have contracts and commitments in place to support our needs, not only through the next couple of years, but for a number of years going forward. Mariner West is starting up, and we expect it to be fully functional later in the quarter, and thereby, alleviating any issues associated with BTU pipeline specs for Range in southwest Pennsylvania. Since Range discovered and pioneered the Marcellus focusing mostly in southwest Pennsylvania, we still, today, maintain our first-mover status in positioning ourselves to take advantage of the pipeline infrastructure that already exists in the region, all of this resulting in competitive netbacks. We're the largest wet gas producer in the basin, and our portfolio of marketing arrangements for all our products is among the best out there. An example of that is our 3 ethane deals, providing us both operational and market diversity for the long term. Once in operation, we expect these 3 contracts to provide an uplift in overall revenue. In our press release, we describe some of those details and make a comparison to today's pricing, showing that once these 3 projects are running, ethane would be selling for an equivalent gas price today of approximately $4.13, net of any transportation, plus we'll receive an additional 8% propane, meaning an additional $0.40 to $0.50 per mcf. This is substantially better than selling ethane as BTUs in the gas stream. Our expectation has always been and will remain to have very few wells that aren't flowing or aren't hooked up to gathering at the end of every year. And I believe our inventory of wells waiting on infrastructure is among the lowest in the basin. We've consistently met our volume targets every quarter, involving extensive coordination and planning efforts with our partners going out 3 years and beyond. And we've been turning our wells into sales quickly. We've had no significant curtailments due to interstate pipeline issues because our team has been instrumental in helping to solve issues that could affect the flow of our gas. And our sales prices in each region of the basin compare favorably. In summary, our team has us well positioned with firm transportation, firm sales and a plenty of compression and processing capacity to support our growth trajectory for the coming years at terms that are among the best in the basin. We don't say it enough, so I want to say it publicly to our marketing team because I know that they're listening today: job very well done. Chad Stevens, our Senior VP in charge of marketing, is with us today on the call and can provide additional details and answer questions during the Q&A. Now let me spend just a few minutes on some of the other activity across the company as all our teams are doing a great job, lowering cost and hitting their marks. In the Mississippian play in northern Oklahoma, we just completed a 12-mile step-out well that had daily production of over 300 barrels of oil per day for more than a week and has produced on average -- has produced an average of 330 Boe per day with 94% liquids, which is 85% oil for the last 30 days. This production mix is significantly different from the southern part of the play in that it's a much higher percentage of oil. And the production profile is much flatter, thus yielding really good economic returns. Again, being higher value oil and a flatter decline yields very good economics, and we believe this well helps to de-risk a large portion of our acreage. We've also applied some new completion designs on 4 of our recent wells that, while early, are showing significantly better results. Again, it's early, and this is only 4 wells with 65 days online, but they're performing 45% above the 600 Mboe type curve. We expect to bring online 4 more wells with new completions during the fourth quarter. In fact, just this week, one of those wells came online, initially moving 780 Boe per day with 82% liquids, and we're pretty sure the oil will go higher as it's only been online a few days. Importantly, even with these larger designs, the well costs will be flat to our current $3.2 million, which is exceptionally good news. The average 24-hour IP for our Mississippian wells brought online in the third quarter was 622 Boe per day with 75% liquids, and that's our highest average IP for any quarter today. All of this to say, we're seeing real improvement and encouragement in the Mississippian. Our Conger properties, we continue to closely monitor horizontal Cline and Wolfcamp activity. And of note, we're currently working on 2 7,000-foot laterals, one in the Cline and one in the upper Wolfcamp. The Cline well just started flowback after a 28-stage completion and with only 13% of the load recovered, the well is flowing up casing at over 400 psi, making about 1.2 million a day in gas with 500 barrels of oil, which is over 850 Boe per day. And the pressure, gas rate and oil rate have been steadily increasing for days. These are really encouraging results this early in the flow back, being much better and much sooner than anything we've seen to date. On the upper Wolfcamp horizontal, we just set pipe on a 7,000-foot lateral, and we'll start to frac in a couple of weeks. As we complete these 2 wells and watch the offset activity, we continue to be very encouraged by the potential that we have on our legacy position for horizontal Cline and for multiple intervals of Wolfcamp development. I should also point out that we just finished a very successful vertical Wolfberry program this year at Conger, completing 14 wells. One of those wells was a successful step-out to the east side of Conger and is significant in that it sets up potential on the east side of the field. We believe the EURs on those 14 wells will be consistent with our previous estimates, and the well costs during the year were actually reduced to the $1.9 million range near the end of the program, thereby resulting in very good economics. Based on this performance, coupled with the step-out on east Conger, we could now have up to 1,000 potential Wolfberry wells at 20-acre spacing at Conger. Our production guidance for the fourth quarter has us right at the high end of our 20% to 25% year-over-year production guidance, which means the fourth quarter should be about 1 Bcf equivalent per day with 25% liquids. I'd like to point out that we're achieving the high end of our guidance, even though we sold approximately 18 million equivalent per day in production with the New Mexico properties earlier this year. Also of note in our guidance for the quarter, over half of the new Marcellus fourth quarter wells will be coming online in December and will not have much impact on our 2013 volumes. In closing, we're exceeding our operating targets. Production is growing at impressive rates, anchored by our growth in the Marcellus and expenses are falling. We have solid marketing and commercial arrangements in place in Appalachia to handle our growth for many years at attractive terms. We have approximately 1 million net acres in Pennsylvania positioned in the core, meaning both from a gas in place analysis and from a marketing standpoint. When you add up the stacked pay potential, we have more like 2 million net acres in the largest producing field in North America. We believe all of this positions us well to deliver 20% to 25% production growth at industry-leading returns, building shareholder value for many years. Now we're to Roger.