Ray N. Walker
Analyst · Johnson Rice
Thanks, Jeff. On the operations front, the synopsis is all about executing the plan with better efficiencies, lower operating cost and improving well performance in what we all now recognize as one of the highest-quality plays in North America. With continued strong execution in our approximately 1 million net acre position in Pennsylvania, combined with our stack pay potential in the Utica and Upper Devonian, our emerging plays in the Mississippian, the Cline and the Wolfberry, we believe we can drive increasing value for our stockholders for many years into the future. Let me start with and spend most of my time this morning on the Marcellus. We continue to recognize substantial improvements in well performance that we believe will lead to real upside in our plan. These improvements are a result of longer laterals, RCS completions, better frac designs and the application of new targeting technology. To illustrate this, during the first quarter, we brought online a 6-well pad in the super-rich area at 14,040 boe per day that's 65% liquids. That's 2,340 boe per day average per well. Additionally, we're bringing online a brand-new 6-well pad as we speak with slightly shorter laterals in the same area that also looks very good at 1,860 boe per day per well with 64% liquids. Now in and of itself, these are impressive wells with great production rates and outstanding economics. The punchline is that these new wells are in an area that already had 8 offset producing wells with up to 5 years of production history, and the new wells are substantially better than the previous wells. I want to stress that these 24-hour production rates from each of these 12 wells are actual rates to sales, but yet they're all constrained by limitations of the facilities and gathering system. In spite of being choked back, which is by design, by several metrics, these new wells are simply better than those nearby older wells. In our view, the improvements are because the new wells were targeted better, had 30% longer laterals and had optimized RCS frac designs when compared to the older wells. For the new wells, the gas rate per frac stage is 28% higher for the first 20 days, and the gas rate per equivalent lateral length is 125% higher. Importantly, production per dollar spent is 140% higher than the older wells for those first 20 days. This is really important, so I'm going to repeat it again. The new wells' gas rate per frac stage is 28% higher, and per equivalent lateral length is 125% higher. And the production per dollar spent is 140% higher than the older wells for those first 20 days. Clearly, this illustrates the potential upside that we could see going forward as we go back into previously drilled areas. These 12 wells also support our belief that we have not yet drilled our best well in the wet and super-rich Marcellus. As we apply these new designs and technologies along with longer laterals, we expect that our well results will continue to improve. And as was the case in this example, and I'm repeating myself again, we can expect substantial upside going forward, even in areas where we've previously drilled. On the last call, we discussed 5 new wells in the super-rich area that also had impressive production rates. As follow-up on those 5 wells, the 3-well pad, after 30 days of production, was producing 1,085 boe per day per well, still at 65% liquids. And the 2-well pad was producing 1,257 boe per day per well, still at 58% liquids. I think the results of these 17 super-rich wells demonstrate the impact of improving well performance and economics as a result of our team continuing to unlock and apply new technologies. In fact, 11 of those 17 wells now have more than 30 days production and, for the first 30 days, are 45% to 50% above the super-rich type curve in our presentation. The key is it's still early, but we are really excited about the long-term potential that, that shows. Our technical team is really taking advantage of our improved reservoir modeling, which can only come with time and more data. What we're excited about is the potential upside that we see all across the Marcellus, including in the dry areas. We've been talking about these techniques for quite some time but now are seeing tangible and impressive results and again, recognizing real upside in well performance as we go back into previously drilled areas. Today, we have over 430 horizontal Marcellus wells in Southwest PA on our 540,000 net acre position, which are producing approximately 500 million cubic feet equivalent per day net. If we were to develop the entire position on 80 acres, that's 6,750 wells. Best to-date, we've only drilled about 6% of our wells on 80-acre spacing. If you could drill all 6,750 wells today, when you do the math, we have the potential to grow our Southwest Pennsylvania production to almost 8 bcf equivalent per day. Of course, this is assuming we drill all our acreage on 80s and all the wells are equal and, at the same time, and so on. Obviously, I'm not saying we will grow at 8 bcf equivalent per day, but it does give us confidence that we have a very large and high-quality asset that we can grow significantly for many years. Remember, there are over 1,650 producing Marcellus wells, which significantly de-risk our acreage. And again, this estimate does not include the Upper Devonian or the Utica or 40-acre spacing, all of which, we believe, are highly prospective across our Southwest PA acreage. If you factor in all the things we're seeing, improving well performance, increasing capital efficiencies and lower operating cost, and you add to that 40-acre development in portions of the reservoir and additionally, you tack on the stack pay potential of the Utica and Upper Devonian and the potential of our other plays across the company, I think you can see for yourself why we have confidence in our ability to grow production at 20% to 25% for many years, essentially doubling our production every 3 years or so, which, in about 6 years, takes us up to 3 bcf equivalent per day as a company. And we believe it continues to grow significantly from there. Shifting to Northeast Pennsylvania, while continuing to hold acreage with 1 to 2 rigs running, our technical team is focusing on delivering great wells, reducing cost and increasing efficiency. Two significant wells were brought online in Lycoming County and are described in the press release, and our plan for the remainder of the year is to continue with the 1-to-2-rig program in that area. Now I'll bring you up-to-date on our emerging plays and start with our Mississippian play in Northern Oklahoma. We ran 5 rigs during the first quarter. Efficiencies are improving quickly. For example, we've seen our spud-to-rig-release days decrease from 37 days down to approximately 20 days in a short span of just 9 months. We've had some good news on a couple of other fronts. We've gotten a better result from pooling than we predicted, and we're ending up with almost 100% working interest in our wells rather than the prediction of 80% or so. Also, the team is making much better use of our saltwater disposal infrastructure, therefore, not needing to drill as many disposal wells this year. As a result of the rigs getting faster, higher working interest and less saltwater disposal wells needed, the good news is we're going to be able to utilize fewer rigs this year for about the same number of net producing wells. We're still working out the numbers, but we should be able to finish the year with fewer rigs as we do plan to stick to our CapEx budget. The team did have some noteworthy wells and updates on previous wells that are detailed in the press release. In this play, it's all about location in a core sweet spot area, execution, controlling cost and steadily and thoughtfully building out infrastructure. And I'm happy to report that the Midcontinent team is doing a great job on all fronts. In the wet Utica, Northwest PA and the Cline in West Texas, we're continuing to closely monitor offset activity, along with trading data and results as wells in both areas are completed and brought online by our peers. Again, we have large acreage positions in both areas that are largely HBP, and our plan continues to be to watch, trade and learn before we make any further development plans. Later this year, we expect that there'll be significant information that we can talk about in both plays. For the first quarter, we exceeded our production guidance primarily due to some better-than-expected timing of pads coming online, combined with some really good well performance, both of which happened in the Marcellus. Like I was talking about earlier, some of these multi-well pads coming online are really impressive, and just a few days ahead or behind schedule can really impact our production in any given quarter. While we're likely to see quarter-to-quarter variability, we still expect to come right in at 20% to 25% growth for the year. Although we lost approximately 18 million cubic feet equivalent per day from the New Mexico sale that was effective April 1, guidance for the second quarter is set between 880 million and 890 million cubic feet equivalent per day with 20% liquids. Remember in the last call, during Q&A, I kept referring to and restating, "Did I tell you about those 5 super-rich Marcellus wells?" We had a lot of fun with that, obviously. But there were a few folks on the call that caught the real meaning. It really is the Marcellus and our large acreage position in Pennsylvania that will drive our share price for many years. You could sum it up into 7 key points: number one, the sheer size of our acreage position in Pennsylvania at approximately 1 million net acres; number two, the largely de-risked nature of our Marcellus potential, largely in Southwest and Northeast PA; number three, the stack pay potential of the Utica and the Upper Devonian and the potential of the wet Utica and Northwest PA; number four, the tremendous economic impact of the liquids in our wet and super-rich area in both the Marcellus and the Upper Devonian and the developing markets for those products; number five, the high-quality dry gas assets both in Northeast and Southwest Pennsylvania; number six, capital efficiency improvements as we go back into areas where infrastructure is already in place, combined with the lower unit cost; and number seven, substantial improvements in well performance as we incorporate better RCS designs, better targeting and longer laterals. As we begin to appreciate all these things going forward, it really is all about what those 17 super-rich wells illustrate. We've only just begun to get a glimpse of the upside as our technical team continues to accelerate its understanding of the reservoir and delivers results. What it means is as we work our plan for 20% to 25% production growth year-over-year for many years going forward, we have great confidence in our team and our assets. In short, we are confident in our plan to deliver substantial shareholder value for many years to come. Now over to Roger.