Lawrence Mendelsohn
Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please ask the question
Thank you very much. Welcome everybody to the Great Ajax Corp., Second Quarter 2021 Conference Call. Also here with me are, Mary Doyle our CFO, and Russell Schaub our President. Before we get started, I just want to have everyone quickly take a look at page 2, the safe harbor disclosure of the presentation. And with that, we can go on to page 3 and begin. As an introduction, the second quarter of 2021 was a good quarter. Our overall corporate cost of funds further decreased, by approximately 25 basis points. And our asset-based cost of funds decreased even more, after decreasing nearly 50 basis points in Q3 of 2020, 26 basis points in Q4, 2020 and 30 basis points in Q1 of 2021. Our cost of funds has continued to decrease in the third quarter of 2021 as well. A significant increase in loan performance and loan cash flow velocity continued. And it's also continued into the third quarter of 2021. This continuing increase in loan cash flow velocity has led to an additional acceleration of income on loans during Q2 of 2021 of $4.7 million, as the present value of cash flow and payoff proceeds exceeded expectations. We continue to be in an offensive position and in Q2 we purchased a significant amount of loans, primarily joint venture structures, at good prices and good locations, and at low percentages of the underlying property values. The prices we paid are materially lower, than when mortgage loans are currently selling today. At June 30th 2021, we had approximately $88 million of cash and more than $300 million of unencumbered bonds, unencumbered beneficial interest and unencumbered mortgage loans combined. As of July 31 2021, we still have approximately $88 million of cash and still have a similar amount of unencumbered bonds, beneficial and mortgage loans. The significant cash balance does create some earnings drag. And a significant cash flow velocity from our mortgage loans and mortgage loan JV structures reduces our loan and securities portfolio leverage as well. We are however well equipped for volatility and the investment potential it creates. And we have good opportunities in our pipeline as well. And with that, we come to page 3, the business overview, starting out talking about our manager. Our manager strength in analyzing loan characteristics and market metrics for REIT performance probabilities and pathways and its ability to source these mortgage loans through long-standing relationships, enables us to acquire loans that we believe have a material probability of long-term continuing REIT performance. We've acquired loans in 338 different transactions since 2014, including six different transactions in the second quarter. Remember, that we owned a 19.8% interest in the equity of our manager. Additionally, our affiliated servicer provides a strategic advantage in non-performing and non-regular paying loan resolution processes and timelines. And a data feedback loop for our managers' analytics. In today's environment having our portfolio teams and analytics group at the manager working closely with the servicer is essential to maximize REIT performance probabilities loan, by loan, by loan. We have certainly seen the benefit of this during the COVID pandemic in Q2 and Q3 2021 with a significant increase in loan cash flow velocity and credit performance. Like our 20% equity interest in our manager, we have a 20% economic interest in our servicer. The analytics and sourcing of the manager and the effectiveness of affiliated servicer, also enables us to broaden our investment reach, through joint ventures with third-party institutional investors. On the leverage side, we still have low leverage. Our June 30 2021 corporate leverage ratio was 2.3 times versus 2.3 times at March 31. Our Q2 2021 average asset base leverage was two times versus 2.1 times in Q1 of 2021, even though we made significant acquisitions in Q2. We also have $20 million invested in Gaea Real Estate Corp. a REIT that invests in multifamily properties, multifamily repositioning, mezzanine loans, and triple net lease veterinary clinic real estate. We think Gaea has a great deal of optionality. And we expect Gaea to grow materially in the second half of 2021 and 2022. On page 4, we talk about highlights of the second quarter. It was a busy quarter. Net interest income from loans and securities, including a $4.7 million interest income from the increase in present value of loan payoffs and cash flow velocity in excess of expectations was approximately $18.95 million in the second quarter. Our gross interest income, excluding the $4.7 million from income from the increase in present value of cash flow velocity was lower than Q1, but net interest income was $500,000 higher, due to our reduced cost of funds, interest expense decreased by approximately $1.47 million. A GAAP item to keep in mind is that, interest income from our portion of joint ventures shows up in income from securities, not interest income from loans. For these joint venture interests servicing fees for securities are paid out of the securities waterfall. So our interest income from joint ventures -- if its joint ventures securities, is net of servicing fees, unlike interest income from loans, which is gross of servicing fees. As a result, since our joint venture investments have been growing faster than our direct loan investments. GAAP interest income will grow more slowly, than if we directly purchase loans outside the joint ventures, by the amount of the servicing fees and the GAAP servicing fee expense will decrease by the corresponding offsetting amount. An important part of discussing interest income is the payment performance of our loan portfolio. At June 30, approximately 74.2% of our loan portfolio by UPB made at least 12 of the last 12 payments, as compared to only 13%, at the time we purchased the loans. This is up from 73% at March 31, 2021.In our first quarter of 2020 last year investor call, we mentioned that we expected the COVID-19-related economic environment would negatively impact the percentage of 12 for 12 borrowers in our portfolio. Thus far, the impact on regular payment performance has been far less than expected and the percentage of our portfolio that is 12 of 12 has been quite stable and increasing since Q4 of 2020 and is only 2% lower than pre-COVID Q4 of 2020 -- or Q4, 2019. Additionally, we have seen significant prepayment from a material subset of our COVID-impacted borrowers that had significant absolute dollars of equity and were in strong home price appreciation locations. The continuing strong regular payment pattern and the prepayment pattern of certain previously delinquent loans led to the $4.7 million increase in the present value of borrower payments in excess of expectations in the quarter. Approximately 20% of our full loan payoffs in second quarter of 2021 were from loans over 180 days delinquent. While regular paying loans produce higher total cash flows over the life of the loans on average, they can extend duration. And because we purchase loans at discounts, this can reduce percentage yield on the loan portfolio and interest income. However, regular paying loans generally increase our NAV, enable financing at a lower cost of funds and provide regular cash flow. Loans that are not regular monthly pay status tend to have shorter durations. However, we have generally expected that this duration reduction would be less than typical due to the impact of certain COVID-19 resolution extension requirements. As I mentioned earlier, most of our loans were purchased as non-regular paying loans and the borrowers, our servicer and portfolio team and our manager, have worked together overtime to reestablish these loans as regularly paying. We also expect that given the low mortgage rate environment and the stability of housing prices so far that higher prepayments will likely continue for both regular paying and non-regular paying loans. We have seen this trend continue in Q3 of 2021. Our cost of funds in Q2 2021 was lower than Q1 by 25 basis points. This was due to spread reductions on repurchased facilities and the six securitizations we completed in Q1 and Q2 and two securitizations we called in late February of 2021. We expect our cost of funds to continue decreasing materially, especially since we called four of our older securitizations and resecuritized the underlying loans in late Q2 of 2021 and will likely do so with some of our other older securitizations in the next few quarters. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $10.37 million or $0.45 per share after subtracting out $1.95 million of preferred dividends. A couple of other things to note. We recorded $161,000 expense from the acceleration of the amortization of deferred issuance costs, as a result of repurchasing $5 million of our convertible bonds in the open market. We also paid approximately $100,000 in duplicate interest due to the three-week timing gap between resecuritizing loans and calling the underlying bonds that were previously backed by those loans. Additionally, we expensed approximately $2.2 million relating to the GAAP-required accrual of the warrant put rights from our Q2 2020 issuances of preferred stock and warrants versus $1.95 million in the first quarter of 2021. Book value per share was $15.86 at June 30, 2021, versus $16.18 per share at March 31. The difference in book value comes from GAAP treatment of our convertible bonds based on changes in earnings amounts and share price. Our stock price at March 31 was $10.90 and at June 30 was $13. Taxable income was $0.34 a share. Taxable income in Q2 was primarily driven by lower interest expense, increases in prepayment, especially for delinquent loans and from cash flow velocity on performing loans. Delinquent loans usually generate tax gains at the time of a foreclosure and the creation of related REO and then tax losses at the sale of REO. Less REO creation typically leads to lower taxable income. However, we saw many delinquent loans prepay in full and generate tax gains. Additionally and probably more importantly, as our cost of funds decreases, we should have further reductions in interest expense, which increases taxable income. In Q2, we completed four securitizations and joint venture structures totaling $1.4 billion in UPB and we called for securitizations. The four new securitization structures contained approximately $900 million of newly purchased loans, as well as approximately $535 million of loans from the four called securitizations. The new securitizations combined will reduce funding costs by approximately 150 basis points per year for the approximate $120 million UPB, that is our percentage ownership of the $535 million of resecuritized loans from the securitizations we called in the second quarter. Of the approximately $900 million of newly purchased loans in these four securitized joint venture structures, we retained another approximately $140 million UPB in the foreign debt securities and beneficial interests. Cash collections at June 30, 2021, we had approximately $88 million of cash and for Q2, 2021, we had an average daily cash and cash equivalent balance of approximately $114 million. We had $78.9 million of cash collections in the second quarter, which is an 11% increase over the first quarter. Our surplus cash tempers earnings and return on equity, but this provides us with significant optionality and the related earnings drag decreases, as we get cash invested over time, like we did in the second quarter. As I mentioned earlier in this call, at June 30 we also had approximately $289 million face amount of unencumbered securities from our securitizations and joint ventures and approximately $53 million unpaid principal balance of unencumbered mortgage loans. As of July 31, we still have $88 million of cash and unencumbered assets even -- and approximately $300 million of unencumbered assets, even though we invested approximately $85 million in the month of July. As I mentioned earlier on this call, approximately 74.2% of our portfolio by UPB made at least 12 of their last 12 payments compared to only 13% at the time of loan acquisition. This difference creates material embedded net asset value versus loan purchase discount. It also enables us to continue reducing our cost of funds and advance rates through rated securitization structures. On page 5, we continue to be primarily RPL-driven with purchased RPLs representing approximately 96% of our loan portfolio at June 30. We primarily purchased RPLs that have made less than seven consecutive payments and have certain loan level and underlying property specifications that our analytics suggest will have positive payment migration on average. The positive payment migration of these purchased RPLs resulted in an increase in the fair market value of the loans and the related decrease in cost of funding. On page 6, you can see on RPLs we continue to buy and own lower loan-to-value loans. Our overall RPL purchase price is approximately 51% of the property value and 88.2% of UPB. On page 7, non-performing loans -- again an important discussion. Purchased non-performing loans have declined over time relative to the total loan portfolio. For NPLs on our balance sheet our overall purchase price is 79% of UPB and 47.2% of property value. As a result of the low loan-to-value and higher absolute dollars of equity on average for our RPL and NPL portfolios, we have seen that rising home prices and relatively low mortgage rates have significantly accelerated prepayment and regular payment velocity on our loans as borrowers can capture significant and growing equity. This leads to greater interest income by accelerating the receipt of loan purchase discount and the present value of cash flow velocity. Subsequent to June 30, we have purchased a significant amount of NPLs and have agreed to purchase approximately $100 million of NPLs subject to due diligence in Q3. I will discuss this in more detail on page 10 in this presentation. Our target markets. California continues to represent the largest segment of our loan portfolio. Our California mortgage loans are primarily in Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties. We have seen consistent payment and performance patterns from loans in these markets. Performance in Southern California has far outperformed expectation during the COVID-19 pandemic period. We have also seen consistently strong prepayment patterns and even more so in recent quarters. Since May of 2020, California prepayments represent nearly 40% of all our prepayments. Until May of 2020, we can see material negative effects from the tax law SALT provisions in New York City metro and in suburban New Jersey and Southern Connecticut home values and home sale liquidity. We have seen a quick positive turn in liquidity in these suburban locations as a result of COVID-19. It's too early to tell though whether this is a short-term phenomenon or a longer-term change in lifestyle as a result of COVID-19 and it also is likely to be affected by any potential new tax law changes becoming effective. Related to this, we have also seen demand and prices for homes and home rentals increased materially in several of our metro areas of Florida, Phoenix, Dallas, Charlotte, Atlanta and a number of others. We're seeing the strength primarily in single-family homes and a bit less so though for condominiums. On page 9, we can talk about portfolio migration. At June 30, approximately 74.2% of our loan portfolio made at least 12 of the last 12 payments including approximately 67% of our portfolio that made at least 24 of 24. Again this compares to approximately 13% at the time of purchase. Non-paying loans which usually have shorter durations than paying loans get time lines extended as a result of COVID moratoriums. This affects the yield on true non-performing loans as extended resolution time lines can lead to more property tax, more insurance payments, more repair expenses. However, in the past four quarters and continuing so far in Q3, 2021 we've seen prepayment of non-performing loans shorten duration on average rather than extend duration from COVID. Since we purchased most of our loans when they were less for 12 of 12 payment history and at a discount, our servicers worked with most of our borrowers over time. While it was too soon to understand the full impacts of COVID-19 on home prices and mortgage loan performance so far the impact on our portfolio has been significantly positive as we have seen demand for homes in our target markets generally increase cash flow velocity on the loans increase and prepayment in full on COVID-impacted loans increase. 12 for 12 loans in today's low market trade and materially higher prices in our cost basis they trade significantly over par. As a result, our portfolio and related implied corporate NAV estimates are materially higher than GAAP book value which presents our loans at the lower of market or amortized cost. Subsequent events on page 10. Since June 30 it's continued to be busy. In July of 2021, we purchased $170 million of RPLs and NPLs into a joint venture securitization that we closed in June of 2021 with a securitized prefunding structure. We own 20% of this joint venture. The purchase price was made at 98% of UPB significantly lower as a percentage of owing balance and 54.2% of the underlying property value. We also directly purchased $3.1 million of non-performing loans at 74.2% of UPB and 69.7% of underlying property value. We've also agreed to purchase approximately $103 million UPB of NPLs in five transactions subject to due diligence. The purchase price for the loans is approximately 97% of UPB approximately 91% of the owning balance and 64% of the value of the underlying properties. One of these purchases is approximately $90 million of UPB with 100% of the related underlying properties in Miami, Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties Florida. We expect these transactions to close in August and we expect to own 100% interest in these loans. We have agreed to purchase subject to due diligence $3.8 million of RPLs in four transactions at a price of 78.9% of UPB and 51.7% of underlying collateral value. We expect these transactions to close in August and to own 100% interest in these loans. In July, we completed a $518 million rated joint venture securitization with a subset of loans from two of our 2020 joint venture structures. The AAA through A classes represent 83% of UPB. AAA through B represents 95.5% of UPB. We retained approximately $53 million of various classes of securities in this joint venture. On August 5, we declared a cash dividend of $0.21 per share to be paid on August 31 to holders of record of August 16. On Page 11 we have some financial metrics. And there's a couple that I'd like to share. One average loan yield excluding the increase in the present value of cash flow declined marginally by approximately 0.1%. For debt securities and beneficial interest however remember that yield is net of servicing fees and yield on loans is gross of servicing fees. Debt securities and beneficial interest is how our interest in our JV structures are presented under GAAP. As our JVs increase as they did in 2020 and 2021 relative to loans, the GAAP reporting will show lower average asset yields by the amount of the servicing fees. That being said, yields on beneficial interest increased in Q2 as cash flow velocity increased. Our average asset level net interest margin increased as well. Leverage continues to be low specifically for companies and -- especially for companies in our sector. We ended Q2 2021 with asset level debt of 2.1x and average asset level debt for the quarter was 2x. Our asset level debt cost of funds was lower in Q2 2021 than Q1 by approximately 25 basis points and the cost of our asset level debt has further declined so far in the third quarter. As we get our surplus cash invested as we did in the second quarter, we should see increases in interest income and net interest income as well. Also, as we continue to repurchase our convertible notes in the open market our cost of funds and interest expense further decreases. On the next page -- actually two pages securities and loan repurchase agreement funding. Our total repurchase agreement related debt on June 30 was approximately $394 million of which $42 million was non-mark-to-market mortgage loan financing and $283 million was financing on Class A1 senior bonds in our joint ventures. At June 30, we had 155 million face of unencumbered bonds, as well as $132 million of unencumbered equity beneficial interest certificates and $53 million UPB of unencumbered mortgage loans. Combined with $88 million of cash at June 30 we have significant resources for being on offense and defense. That concludes my discussion and presentation. If anybody has any questions very happy to answer whatever you might have interest in.