Russell Gordon
Analyst · Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead
Thanks, Matt. Our first quarter outlook is on the next page, Slide 13. On a consolidated level, first quarter sales are expected to be approximately flat compared to a record prior year period with many market trends from the fourth quarter continuing. By segment, CPG is expected to generate low single-digit revenue growth on top of the nearly 11% growth they generated in the first quarter of 2024. As they benefit from their focus on restoration, selling, building envelope systems and unique turnkey offerings. In PCG, sales are expected to be flat due to challenging comparisons as a few larger projects were completed in the prior year period and others are being delayed beyond the first quarter of 2025. In SPG, overall demand is expected to remain soft. However, the segment is facing easier comparisons, which should result in sales declining in the low single-digit range. In Consumer Group, sales are expected to be down low-single-digits. Trends are expected to remain similar to the fourth quarter with market share gains and strength in international markets being offset by continued DIY softness. Consolidated first quarter adjusted EBIT is expected to increase in the mid-single-digit percentage range compared to a record prior year period driven by MAP 2025 benefits. As part of MAP 2025, we are in the process of consolidating or have recently consolidated 12 facilities, which demonstrates our continued momentum in generating efficiencies. Our fiscal 2025 full-year guidance is on the following slide, Slide 14. We expect sales growth will be up low single digits and adjusted EBIT will increase mid-single-digits to low-double-digits. On the top line, volume growth is uncertain as the visibility on the global economic outlook is limited which includes the unknown impact of elections in the U.S. and other markets. Our strategic balance and focus on repair and maintenance should be beneficial as we navigate the mixed economy. We expect pricing to be slightly positive in response to continued inflation in areas like labor and benefits, and we expect moderate increases in raw material costs in the second half of the fiscal year. By segment, CPG should outgrow its markets with its differentiated product and service offerings and should continue to benefit from spending on infrastructure and restoration projects. After a year of strong growth, CPG will face more challenging prior year comparisons in fiscal 2025, while commercial construction remains sluggish. Moving to PCG. They continue to benefit from increased spending on infrastructure projects as well as their more collaborative strategy in emerging markets, which is generating profitable growth. After years of strong growth, the growth in spending on reshoring projects appears to be moderating. And PCG will also experience a temporary headwind from the under absorption impact of opening of new plants in India and Malaysia that we highlighted on the last call -- on the last quarter. Although these plans will be a longer-term tailwind of PCG results. At SPG, the current expectation is that several key end markets will remain sluggish. As a result, SPG has pruned certain products and their associated SG&A cost structure. These actions, along with easier comparisons will help SPG get back to growth particularly if end markets recover. At Consumer, we will continue benefiting from new products and market share gains as well as driving an improved product mix which is expected to more than offset near-term softness in DIY. When end markets ultimately recover, consumer is poised for strong profitability growth as a result of the MAP 2025 initiatives put in place. On a consolidated level, the key driver of EBIT growth is expected to be our MAP 2025 benefits including manufacturing and commercial excellence improvements as well as the actions we have taken to make our SG&A structure more streamlined. This includes leveraging the power of RPM to generate efficiencies in areas like automation, digital selling tools and centralizing more back office functions. These efficiencies will be more apparent over time as we overcome the negative short-term under-absorption impact of MAP enabled plant consolidation. Finally, because of the strong cash flow and debt reductions made throughout fiscal year 2024, we will benefit from lower interest expense in fiscal year 2025. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now be pleased to answer your questions.