Theodore D. Crandall
Analyst · Steve Tusa from JPMorgan
Thanks, Keith. All right, good morning, everybody. As Rondi mentioned, we posted a set of slides at the website, and my comments are going to reference those slides. I'll start with Page 5, which is the first quarter results summary. Revenue in the quarter was $1,489,000,000, up 1% compared to the first quarter of last year. The year-over-year impact of currency fluctuations reduced sales by about 0.5 point, and acquisitions contributed less than 0.5 point. Organic growth was 1.5%. As I move to segment operating earnings, I'll take the opportunity to remind you that consistent with our discussions on last quarter's earnings call, beginning with this first quarter of fiscal '13, we've adopted a new approach to dealing with pension expense in some of our earnings measures. We've introduced new non-GAAP measures that exclude non-operating pension costs from our income from continuing operations and corresponding EPS, and we also changed our definition of segment earnings to exclude the non-operating pension costs. We defined non-operating pension costs to include defined benefit plan interest cost, expected return on plan assets, amortization of actuarial gains and losses and the impacts of any plan curtailments or settlements. We consider service costs related to active employees to be operating pension costs. So on the new reporting basis, segment operating earnings were $276 million, down about 5% from $292 million in Q1 last year. General corporate net was $18.5 million compared to $20.2 million in Q1 last year. $18.5 million is a little lower than our expected run rate for the full year. The adjusted effective tax rate in the quarter was 26.6%. That compares to an adjusted effective rate in Q1 last year of 24.9%. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.23, and that compares to $1.31 a year ago. Average diluted shares outstanding in the quarter was 141.2 million. We repurchased approximately 1.2 million shares in the first quarter at a cost of about $88 million, and at the end of Q1, there was $849 million remaining under our $1 billion share repurchase authorization. Moving to Page 6. This is the graphical version of total company results for Q1. As I noted on the prior slide, the year-over-year increase in sales for Q1 was 1%. Bills declined sequentially by 11%. As we discussed in last quarter’s earnings call, we entered the first quarter with an unusually low backlog in our solutions businesses. On the right side of the chart, you will note a modest year-over-year and sequential decline in operating earnings. Operating margin in Q1 was 18.5%, down from 19.8% on a comparable basis for Q1 last year. The year-over-year decline is more about an unusually strong margin in Q1 last year than about weakness this year. In Q1 this year, we experienced very modest organic growth so not enough volume leverage to offset a higher base of spending due to annualization of fiscal '12 investments, the increase in operating pension costs of about $5 million in the quarter and normal year-on-year compensation increases. Currency effects also had a negative impact on operating margin in the quarter. These factors had a similar impact on operating margins in both segments. At 18.5%, operating margin is about equal to last year's full year result, pretty much right on our full year guidance and we believe a very solid start to the year. Although it's not displayed on the chart, our trailing fourth quarter return on invested capital was 29%. Now please turn to Page 7. This is the Q1 results of the Architecture & Software segment. Looking at the left side of this chart, sales increased 1% year-over-year. Currency translation reduced sales by 1 point, so 2% organic growth. Sales were down 2% sequentially. Operating margin for the quarter was 27.9%, down from a difficult comp of 29.1% in Q1 last year, but almost a full point above the full year 2012 operating margin for Architecture & Software. Again, a pretty strong start to the year. You can also note here that sequential earnings improvement and operating margin was up 2.7 points sequentially. The next page, Page 8, covers our Control Products & Solutions segment. Sales in the quarter were up 1% compared to last year both on a reported and organic basis. There was no significant difference between the year-over-year growth rates and the products portion of this segment and the solutions and services portion. Sales declined 16% sequentially with products down 3%, but solutions and services down 24%. The decline in solutions and services was pretty much as expected, and consistent with our comments last quarter regarding a low beginning backlog. On the right side of this chart, you'll note the year-over-year and sequential earnings decline. Operating margin in this segment dropped from 12.5% in Q1 last year to 11.2% this year. Particularly in our solutions and services businesses, the cost structure increased over the course of last year as volume ramped. We haven't fully adjusted for the substantial sales decline from Q4 to Q1 because we've rebuilt backlog in Q1, and we need to preserve the experienced people in these businesses to fulfill the orders which now will be delivered in the balance of the year. Switching to the next page. This provides a geographic breakdown of our sales in the quarter. I'll focus my comments on the far right column, which displays organic growth. As Keith noted, strong growth in the U.S. of 6%, Latin America was up 7% and Brazil experienced 13% growth in the quarter. EMEA and Canada were each down 2%, and Asia Pacific was down 9% year-over-year with China down 13%. India was weaker. That was somewhat offset by growth in the balance of Asia. Compared to our expectations and looking across the regions, the U.S. outperformed expectations in Q1 and Asia underperformed. Keith talked about some of the reasons for the underperformance in China and India in his comments. We do expect to see improvement in Asia Pacific sales performance in the balance of the year, particularly in China. Trends in the macro indicators, our backlog at the end of Q1 and input from our sales organization and customers support this view. In the longer term, we continue to believe that the emerging markets in Asia remain among our best growth opportunities. I'll turn now to Page 10, which is free cash flow. Free cash flow for the quarter was $156 million. Even though Q1 is typically a weaker cash-flow quarter, that represents about a 97% conversion on net income so another very good start to the year. And that takes us to the final slide, Page 11, which addresses our current outlook for fiscal '13. As Keith mentioned, we're reaffirming guidance. We continue to expect sales in the range of $6.35 billion to $6.65 billion. That revenue range represents organic growth for the full year between 1% and 5%. Consistent with our previous guidance, we still project stronger growth rates in the second half of the fiscal year. We believe that currency and acquisitions will add about 1 point of additional growth for the full year. That's the same as prior guidance. We continue to expect segment margin to be about 18.7% for the full year, and consistent with an expectation of higher growth rates in the second half, third and fourth quarters are also likely to be the higher-margin quarters. We are reaffirming adjusted EPS in the range of $5.35 to $5.75. We now foresee a full year adjusted tax rate of between 25% and 26%. That's down slightly from previous guidance of 26%. The reduction is primarily due to the extension of the R&D tax credit for 2012 and 2013 in the recent American Taxpayer Relief Act. We believe that the benefit of a lower tax rate will now likely be offset by somewhat higher share count. Subject primarily to acquisition opportunities, we still expect to spend about $400 million this year on repurchases. However, we are now projecting that full year average shares outstanding will be about 141 million. That's up 1 to 2 million shares from what we expected in November and due to a higher share price and the impact of the higher share price on both repurchases and options. And finally, we still expect general corporate net expense to be about $83 million for the full year. With that, I'll turn it over to Rondi, and we'll begin Q&A.