Theodore Crandall
Analyst · Barclays Capital
Good morning, everyone. As you can imagine, this is a somewhat difficult time to be a Steelers fan in Wisconsin, and since I am surrounded by Packers fans at the moment, including my boss, I guess what I can safely say is I'm looking forward to a good game. At any rate, as Rondi mentioned, we posted charts for our website and my comments will reference those charts. As Keith noted, the Q1 results reflect a continuing global economic recovery, good execution across our businesses and regions and another very strong quarter for financial performance. So starting with Chart 1, the Q1 results summary. Revenue in the quarter was $1.366 billion. That's up 28% compared to Q1 last year. The year-over-year impact of currency translation was less than $2 million, so a negligible impact. Segment operating earnings were $222 million, and increase of 62%, compared to $137 million in Q1 last year. General corporate net was $15.7 million, down from $19.5 million a year ago. We indicated about $86 million in general corporate net expense for the full year in our November guidance, so Q1 was well below that run rate. The lower level was due primarily to a gain on the sale of an investment. The effective tax rate in the quarter was 19.6%. That's slightly below the low-end of our full-year guidance range. We benefited in the quarter from the retroactive impact of the R&D tax credit extension. Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations was $1.04, almost double last year's $0.54. Average diluted shares outstanding in the quarter was 144.5 million. We repurchased approximately 700,000 shares in Q1 at a cost of about $49 million. Despite share repurchases over the past year, the average diluted share count is up about 800,000 shares year-over-year. That increase is primarily due to the effect of a higher share price on the dilution calculation. Moving to Chart 2, the Q1 Results: Rockwell Automation. As I noted previously, sales for quarter one increased 28% year-over-year, but also increased about 1% sequentially. Q1 is our third consecutive quarter with year-over-year growth over 25%. Regarding the sequential sales increase of 1%, we typically experienced a modest decline sequentially from Q4 to Q1, so this was a better-than-expected start to the fiscal year. We suspect Q1 may have benefited from some customers using calendar year capital and operating expense budgets and in Asia, it appears that some project business may have been pulled in from Q2 due to the timing of the lunar new year this year, but clearly Q1 also saw continued growth in fundamental demand. Moving to the earnings side of the chart. You can observe a steady improvement over the course of last year, and I would also point out the sequential step up in earnings from Q4 to Q1 on a relatively modest sales increase. Operating margin for the quarter was 16.3%, up 3.5 points from 12.8% in Q1 last year. That margin improvement reflects some good volume leverage offset by both higher compensation costs and growth spending. Q1 last year was the last quarter to benefit from the salary reductions and the suspension of the 401(k) match that we implemented during the downturn. It was also the last quarter before increased compensation expense associated with the global salary and wage increase. You might also remember that we began to accelerate growth spending in the second half of last year. So in Q1, volume leverage had to overcome both of these items to deliver the improved operating margins. On a different note, although it's not displayed on the chart, our trailing fourth quarter return on invested capital was 25.7%. That's up from 9.5% in Q1 last year, largely due to the increased earnings. As Keith noted, ROIC is almost back to the peak of 26% that we experienced in the second quarter of fiscal year '08. Now please turn to Chart 3, which summarizes the Q1 results in the Architecture & Software segment. Looking at the left side of this chart, we'll now experience seven consecutive quarters of sequential sales growth in the Architecture & Software segment. You can see four of those quarters reflected here. Year-over-year growth in Q1 was 31%. Currency had a slight negative impact on sales on a year-over-year basis. Architecture & Software sales in Q1 were up 7% sequentially and operating margin for the quarter was 24.9%, up 3.8 points from Q1 last year and up 2.6 points sequentially. Chart 4 covers our Control Products & Solutions segment. Sales in Q1 were up 26% compared to last year, with a very minor positive impact from currency. Sales were down 4% sequentially. In the product portion of Control Products & Solutions, sales were up 4% sequentially, but that was offset by a 9% sequential decline in solutions and services, and that's a typical Q4-Q1 pattern in that portion of the Control Products & Solutions segment. Segment operating earnings increased 82% year-over-year with a related 2.9-point improvement in operating margin. Sequentially, operating earnings were down 10% and operating margin contracted by less than a point, in both cases consistent with the lower volume. The next chart, Chart 5, provides a geographic breakdown of our sales in the quarter. I'll focus my comments on the far right column, excluding currency effects. Very strong sales growth to every region, the U.S., Canada, EMEA and Asia-Pacific were all in the high 20s to low 30% in terms of year-over-year growth, with Latin America leading all other regions at 42%. Emerging markets were particularly strong in the quarter. In total up 38%, with China up 40%. This is the third consecutive quarter for 40-plus percent year-over-year growth in China. I'll turn now to Chart 6, Free Cash Flow. Free cash flow for the quarter was $4 million, slightly better than a breakeven result. Q1 is typically a weaker cash flow quarter and we expected this Q1 to be especially low due to the larger-than-normal payout of performance-based compensation that was earned and expensed in the last fiscal year. You can see that impact in the compensation and benefits line. Despite the slow start in Q1, we continue to expect free cash flow conversion of about 100% for the full year. The only qualifier I would put on the free cash flow expectation is that we will continue to monitor the status of our pension plan funding and if we choose to make a discretionary contribution this year, cash conversion could be somewhat lower. And that takes us to the final slide, which addresses our current outlook for fiscal '11. As Keith mentioned, we're revising guidance. We've increased the range of full-year sales to $5.5 billion to $5.7 billion. That's a $200 million increase across the range compared to our previous guidance. The new low-end of our revenue range is equal to the previous high-end. Excluding currency effects for the full year, net revenue range now represents growth of 12% to 16%. The previous range was 8% to 12%, so that's a four-point increase in year-over-year growth across the range. For the full year, we expect currency to contribute about one point of growth, which is the same expectation as previous guidance. We expect segment margin to be about 17% or maybe a bit higher. The previous range was 16% to 17%. We've increased our fiscal 2011 guidance per diluted earnings per share to a range of $4.30 to $4.60. We continue to expect the full-year tax rate of 20% to 22%, and perhaps the other item worth commenting on is general corporate net. There we now expect expense to be closer to $80 million for the full year. This guidance includes the expected results of the acquisition we recently announced, but with respect to full-year sales and earnings, it's not really large enough to make a meaningful impact. With that, I'll turn it back over to Rondi and we'll begin the Q&A session.