Frank Heard
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Ken. When you appreciate how our initial progress on the four-pillar strategy contributed to our solid performance in 2015 compared to the unsatisfactory results in 2014, you can see the potential of Gibraltar’s fundamental transformation. The first of these four pillars is operational excellence. We have been working to reduce overhead, price our products more strategically to better support our partners, consolidate facilities, improve our raw material sourcing and increase efficiencies across the business. The Gibraltar team at every level has embraced the cultural change we are making very quickly and that has resulted in some excellent results in these early days. In leveraging the work we are doing in 80/20, we are taking a more strategic look at customers and end-markets to evaluate our portfolio in terms of best use of our financial and human capital. We continue to realign our talents and expertise to be closer to our customers and redeploy capital to enhance these partnerships. As a result of all our businesses – as a result, all our businesses are becoming more valuable. During the first year of our 80/20 initiative, we derived $11.2 million of year-over-year profit improvement compared with a target of $5 million that we developed midyear. We also reduced inventories during 2015 by over $20 million, significantly surpassing our initial target of $12 million reduction. Our portfolio management initiatives leverages the work we are doing in 80/20 by taking a more strategic look at our customers and end markets as we allocate leadership time, capital and resources to the highest potential platforms and businesses. As a result, we are spending less capital in 2016 compared to historical levels with a much higher expected rate of return. We anticipate capital expenditures in the range of $16 million to $19 million in 2016 compared with a CapEx of $12 million in 2015. We continue to see four of our product platforms as key areas for greater product innovation, centralized mail and parcel delivery, residential air management, transportation, infrastructure and renewable energy, including green technology. In centralized mail and parcel delivery, we have made some excellent progress with our Express Locker having nearly 150 installations as of the end of 2015. For residential housing, we are developing an energy efficient whole house fan and higher efficiency smart vents that self-regulate as environmental conditions change. Additionally, we are launching a new meta-roofing installation system that’s been tested to withstand hurricane force winds. Many in the roofing industry see this as a potential game changer. Innovative products, which we define as products with patent protection introduced within the past 3 years, represent 4% of revenues for 2015. Our objective is to approach 10% of revenues by 2020, driven by acquired product lines as well as internal product development. Our fourth strategic pillar is acquisition. We are focused on making strategic acquisitions in five key markets postal and parcel solutions, residential air management, transportation infrastructure, water management and renewable energy. RBI is an ideal example of the type of acquisition we are focused on. In 2016, we plan to close on further acquisition – acquisitions in target markets that offer higher returns on investment than we have realized in the past. Now I will talk about our guidance for 2016, referencing Slide 10. While none of us have a crystal ball, we do believe that Gibraltar should fare pretty well in 2016, since we are less exposed to the most serious global challenges than some other companies. 85% of our 2015 revenue came from the Continental United States, one of the largest developed markets in the world and one that has a comparatively healthy economy today. Looking at our segments specifically, demand for our residential products is generally tied to residential housing starts and renovation activity, which both have positive outlook. We expect middle to single-digit growth in the U.S. residential market as the gradual recovery to mid-cycle housing starts continue. We expect that these improving market conditions will partially offset the decline in revenue from centralized mail receptacles due to the December 2015 completion of a specific customer’s 2-year contract. As a result, we expect residential product revenue will decrease by approximately 15% for the year. Our industrial infrastructure sales have already been affected by the industrial slowdown, including the severe energy downturn. We believe that, that has flattened out, so we are cautiously optimistic for 2016. Looking at transportation infrastructure products sold by this segment, the newly signed federal transportation appropriation is a helpful development for states, allowing departments of transportation to plan larger scale projects. In 2016, these states will start issuing RFQs and awarding initial contract. We expect this will meaningfully benefit our backlog by the end of 2016 and our revenues in 2017 and beyond. In this segment, we are expecting equivalent revenues to 2015 with lower demand – level demand for the key industrial markets such as upstream oil and gas continuing. In renewable energy and conservation, we see a continuing tailwind for growth in the solar market over the next few years, supported by the recent 5-year extension of the U.S. federal investment tax credit. This also bodes well for the next several years as solar installations are expected to increase across the U.S. And solar accounted for nearly 20% of our consolidated revenues in 2015. This segment’s 2016 revenue should increase over 2015, led by higher market demand from renewable energy. For 2016 as a whole, we expect consolidated revenues to range between $1.60 billion and $1.80 billion, up approximately 3% from 2015. Regarding profitability in 2016, we expect consolidated adjusted earnings per diluted share in the range of $1.32 to $1.40, up substantially from the $1.09 reported in 2015. The expected improvement in earnings comes from the additional cost efficiencies benefiting from the 80/20 simplification initiative plus the incremental accretive earnings from RBI. For the first quarter of 2016, we expect revenues to crease nearly 15% and adjusted EPS in the range of $0.12 to $0.15 compared with $0.06 for the first quarter of 2015. EPS benefits from the accretive income from the RBI acquisition in June of 2015 plus the contribution of other profit improvement initiatives across our base business. In summary, Gibraltar is well on track for a strong 2016 and we are fully committed to achieve three goals. First, increase adjusted earnings; second, making more efficient use of our capital; and thirdly, delivering higher shareholder returns than we did in 2015. At this point, we will open the call for any questions that you may have.