Sumant Sinha
Analyst · Bernstein
So I think that the allusion that we made to transmission issues really is a very sort of small issue, which is that there's a bid that we're connecting to in one of our projects, that day is getting ready a month later than it was supposed to. And because of the March 31st deadline for commissioning, therefore, it sort of puts a little bit of a question mark on -- or a big [witty] on whether that is going to then get done before March 31st or not, whereas we're going to be fully ready from our side. But whether it happens on March 31st or if not then it will happen 10 days later. So that is not such a big issue from our overall revenue generation standpoint and so on. And the bigger issues that you're addressing or you're raising are around land and general connectivity, availability and PPA signing. So let me try to address those quickly. So as far as we are concerned on transmission, we have got all the connectivity for all of the 24 odd gigawatts of pipeline that we have got fully in hand. So we don't have any issues around connectivity right now. And in fact, we have surplus connectivity, I think, as you had yourself written in a report some time ago, we have surplus connectivity. And therefore, any new bids that happen, we'll actually be in a really good position to use some of that land based connectivity that we have to win those auctions. Now we are also able, based on the connectivities commissioning dates, we're also able to, in some ways, smooth out that execution of this 24 odd gigawatts over the next few years' time. Now there may be delays in some of the connectivity coming up by a few months here and there but by enlarge the delays are not more than that. And therefore, if you plan your execution are reasonably well in terms of which projects go into which substations and so on. By enlarge those get delivered. As I said, there could be a few months here and there but the delays are not more than that. So I would say that connectivity is becoming a problem for those companies that have not proactively blocked the connectivity earlier, which unfortunately something that we had done. So therefore, connectivity per se is something that is fine as far as we're concerned. As far as land is concerned, land is a problem in wind. It has always been a problem with wind projects. And that is why if you see a lot of our increase in our commissioning is happening out of solar not so much out of wind. We don't expect that wind is something that is going to exceed maybe 5 gigawatts a year in the country over the next few years, maybe the next two, three years, you'll probably end up just doing about that much of capacity in wind as an industry, I'm saying. And our share within that will be whatever it will be based on our own commissioning plans. So land is definitely a problem. And particularly, in the last six to nine months, there are a lot of projects have been done in Maharashtra. There were specific issues on account of certain Ministry of Defense issues because of the elections that are coming up and then local loan order problems that I'm sure you've read about in the press and frankly, that has also impacted us in terms of our commissioning time lines. Otherwise, we hopefully have got some of the wind projects commissioned by this time. So that always is something that we have to bake in to our plans that wind projects do take longer to get commissioned than solar projects very often. And then as far as PPAs are concerned, on the PPA signing, I would say that this year, there has been reasonably decent progress on PPA signings given the large backlog on the large amount of bids that have happened in the last two years, the fact that out of the maybe 120, 130 gigawatts of bids that have happened in the last -- in this current financial year and the previous one, there are only maybe 30 to 35 gigawatts of unsigned PPAs. But the balance of it has all got signed. So I would say that there is a lot of headroom that is built up now in terms of signed PPAs. If you were to look at that as another indicator of what capacity additions may happen in the near term. So my sense is that the balance PPAs also get signed. And at this point, the government is wondering -- not wondering but is considering slowing down the pace of bids potentially to allow the old bids to get signed. And that is perfectly fine because the pace of bidding has been extremely rapid. So I think it will give all of us a little bit of breathing room to just reassess where we are and look at our execution pipelines and so on. So I think that is a -- that would be healthy thing in my opinion. So my sense is all the PPAs eventually will get signed or at least the most amount of them will get signed.