Adam Portnoy
Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead
Sure. So you’ve hit on the two sort of areas then within our whole platform. That have suffered the greatest during the pandemic, which has been the senior living communities that we own as well as operate through Five Star as well as the hotels, which we own at SVC and operate at Sonesta. Both – let me take the senior living industry first, and then I’ll talk about hotels. In senior living, the good news is I think we probably hit bottom in terms of occupancy, in Q1 – calendar Q1 of this year. In our portfolio of senior living communities that we own as well as operate. Starting in March of this year, we started to see a slight uptick in occupancy. And we’ve continued to see that. We’re seeing an uptick in leads or what we call tours of the communities by potential residents. We’re also seeing a bigger conversion rate of those folks that are coming to look at the communities, the issue in the senior living space is that in a matter of 14 months from the beginning of the pandemic, or call it, 13, 14 months, you had, generally speaking, across the industry, including our own, about 1,300 basis points drop in occupancy. That is an unprecedented drop in occupancy. And that’s simply because you had regular move-outs sort of at pre-pandemic levels, but no move-ins. We’ve turned the corner. The question is, and I don’t think anybody knows the answer to this, by the way, is how fast the occupancy will increase I believe they – we will have increased occupancy in senior living communities in 2021, and we will end the year much better place than we did beginning of the year, but it’s almost anybody’s guess whether it’s going to be 200 basis points increase in occupancy or a 500 basis point increase in occupancy between – where we’re going to be at the end of the year. I can make the argument either way, and I could tell you how you could get to either one. But in terms of when do we get back to pre-pandemic levels, occupancy specifically, I think general conventional wisdom is somewhere between 2 to 3 years, and some folks in the industry think it could take longer. The good news around the senior living space is there is – construction activity has been muted. It has slowed down. And so you don’t have as much competition in the marketplace. But again, I think we’re starting to see a return, things getting better. On the hotel side, again, very devastating drop in occupancy. We look at occupancy at hotels, but we probably spend more time focused on RevPAR and/or flow through to EBITDA, hotel EBITDA. Occupancy, I think you will actually see – if you focus just on that metric, I think you could see occupancy in certain of our hotels this summer be higher than it was in 2019. Again, if they leisure destination, full-service hotels or even not even full-service hotels, leisure destinations, I think you could see a higher occupancy alone. But what we’re really focused on is when do we get back to pre-pandemic RevPAR and when do we get back to pre-pandemic EBITDA. And I think the wildcard there is, I don’t believe in the hotel – in the – business activity is going to be much slower in terms of that returning to the hotel sector in terms of the room nights that are going to be spent on business. Leisure is coming back very quickly. Business, as you know, is 70% to 75% of all hotel nights, historically have been driven by business. And so it’s the lion’s share of the market. The question is when does that come back? I think part of what we have done in our own companies at SVC and through – by taking back hotels and with Sonesta, we’ve actually positioned that company to benefit in a post-pandemic hotel world, where I think there is going to be a lot less business travel. I think that rewards program is going to be less important than it was before. I think you got to be a lot more scrappy to pick up every incremental customer. And I think a company like Sonesta is actually better positioned, I believe, better positioned than the major brands to be able to operate in that type of environment going forward. So when do we get back to ‘19 RevPAR and hotel EBITDA? Some people in the industry think it could take 4 to 5 years. I think it will be faster than that. I think in the short to medium term, we are actually especially well positioned to do better than some of the major brands, just given the way Sonesta operates and its history versus, let’s say, some of the major brands. So that’s a long-winded answer for you, but that’s my view.