Leslie D. Hale
Analyst · Baird.
Yes. I mean I would say -- sorry about that. I would say that in general, the way we are seeing leisure unfold is that demand remains stable, urban continues to outperform, and that rate sensitivity is showing up in the form of using discount booking channels. And we think that's going to persist through the remainder of the year. As we think about the other segments, BT without government continues to grind forward, and we're seeing national accounts really drive that. And we think that's going to continue throughout the remainder of the year, and that October is going to benefit a lot as a strong BT month. And that while group is soft in the third quarter, as we outlined before because of the booking trends that we're seeing with weak calendar, tough comps, and the holiday shift. In the fourth quarter, we think that group is going to do well because of the setup. While the third quarter is soft for us, we see the fourth quarter shaping up as we expected because the setup hasn't changed. The holiday shift will benefit the fourth quarter, and we're lapping the election in the fourth quarter. We have better citywides across NOLA, Boston, Denver, Orlando, Houston, Louisville, and the booking dynamic is better. We're seeing our pace actualize. We're seeing definite materialize. We're going to get the benefit of our renovations ramping, and our conversions are going to continue to ramp. So when we look at fourth quarter versus third quarter, in the third quarter, you were hurt by the holidays. In the fourth quarter, you're going to benefit from the holidays. In the third quarter, you had tough comps across the markets we talked about, but we're lapping, and we have easier comps in the fourth quarter. Additionally, when we think about the citywide, citywides were weak in the third quarter. They're going to be strong in the fourth quarter. And the booking dynamic in the third quarter, we saw the inability -- we're seeing the inability for in the quarter for the quarter pickup, whereas we're actually seeing the pace materialize for the fourth quarter. And lastly, specific to us, the renovations are impacting us in the third quarter, but we're getting the benefit of that in the fourth quarter. I would also say that our fourth quarter was built on what we think is modest assumptions. We're only -- we're built on assuming a pace of 102%, which is relatively modest when you think about that. And so we have -- we feel good about how the fourth quarter is shaping up, and the setup is very different than the third quarter. And so while we have articulated some of the segment softness in the third quarter, we think it's isolated to the third quarter. It is not a function of what we're seeing from a fundamentals perspective and isn't carrying into the fourth quarter.