Ross Bierkan
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Hilda. Good morning, everyone. And welcome to our 2017 second quarter earnings call. Before start, I'd like to remind listeners that at this time we cannot discuss or take any questions relating to the FelCor merger in our recently filed proxy. We appreciate your patience as we move forward through this process. I would first like to start by noting that we’re pleased to see continued demand growth in the lodging industry. For the quarter, industry demand outpaced supply and ADR growth remain healthy, driving yet another quarter of positive growth in the U.S. with RevPAR up 2.7%. Now, the industry's growth this quarter was primarily driven by the leisure segment, the robust 7.1% RevPAR growth in the resort market was a good illustration of this segments strong demand. Flat RevPAR growth in urban markets, which are generally more business and group oriented, highlighted the quarter is more tempered business and group travel, given our portfolio’s greater concentration in urban markets, we did not see the same degree of leisure benefited the industry and were disproportionately affected by the new business travel. This combined with a few portfolio transitory headwinds contributed to our softer relative performance to the industry of a 3.4% RevPAR decline. Despite the revenue pressure, our EBITDA margins held strong at 37.7%. Our efficient operating model coupled with our team's ability to manage our bottomline continued to produce one of the strongest margins in our space and generate significant free cash flow. As we move past some of our toughest comps, we expect the second half of the year to be better than the first half on a relative basis. At the same time, absent any meaningful acceleration in the economy, we expect that performance gain in the second half to remain muted. From a macro perspective, key economic indicators remain largely unchanged. Healthy corporate profits and business investment coupled with strong employment and consumer sentiment are creating a positive economic climate. Despite this backdrop, we have yet to see these positive trends fully translate into strong growth for the lodging industry. We believe that we need incremental economic growth and clarity with regards to the new administration's policies and initiatives in order to give rise to actionable corporate sentiment, which would lead to more robust lodging demand fueled by the business travel. Given the cyclical nature of our industry, we continue to believe in the benefits of diversification. As we look at lodging demand across our top markets on a year-to-date basis, eight of our top 10 markets showed positive demand growth, with the majority of these markets exceeding overall industry demand. In particular, South Florida and Austin continue to show robust demand, highlighting the long-term resiliency of these dynamic markets. As we drill further down into the performance of our portfolio, I will start with Southern California, our top performer this quarter with RevPAR growth of 5.1%. Our hotels continue to benefit from strong corporate business production from industries such as technology and the arts and entertainment. We are also seeing added benefit from the ramp-up of one of our renovated hotels. Looking ahead, we expect the positive momentum in this market to continue. In Washington DC, our portfolio RevPAR growth of 1.9% outperformed the market by about 120 basis points and our hotels gained approximately 240 basis points in additional market share against their competitive sets. During the quarter we saw healthy mix of corporate, group and leisure business. Now as we move forward, we face tough comps in the second half given double-digit RevPAR growth from last year’s strong corporate and group activity, and expect to be flat to slightly positive in the second half relative to last year. In South Florida, we saw an increase in RevPAR of 3.0%, outpacing the market by 100 basis points. South Florida was one of our few markets that did benefit from the Easter shift. Additionally, our West Palm Beach properties continue to benefit from the Presidents frequent visits, as well as an uptick in special corporate and group segments during the quarter. We expect our diversification in this region will continue to benefit our portfolio as the year progresses and partially offset the headwinds from new supply in Miami and the ongoing renovations at the Miami Beach Convention Center. In Northern California, ongoing renovations at the Moscone Center continue to reduce compression in the market. Our RevPAR decline to 5.5% compared favorably to the San Francisco market RevPAR to kind of 8.2% and again highlights the benefits of our portfolio diversification in the region. Additionally, our RevPAR this quarter reflect disruption at two hotels that were undergoing renovations. Adjusting for renovation disruption, our RevPAR would have improved by 220 basis points. With our hotel renovations now complete and the opportunity to lap the renovations at Moscone approaching late in the third quarter, our toughest comps are now behind us, which should lead to improved performance for the second half of the year and into next year. In Louisville, our RevPAR declined 8.2%, a significant improvement over last quarter. During the quarter the closure of the convention center remained our biggest headwind. Additionally, the lack of market compression was further impacted by the quarter's marquee event, the Kentucky Derby having lower attendance versus prior year. Not unlike Northern California, we expect performance to improve as we start to lap the 2016 closure of the convention center late in the third quarter. We are already in the process of renovating our Marriott Louisville, setting the stage for outsized growth in the second half of 2018, when our renovation is complete and the city's state-of-the-art convention center reopens. In Houston, the ongoing soft market fundamentals were amplified by the difficult NCAA Final Four comp from 2016. This event alone generated approximately a $1 million for us last year, impacting our market-wide RevPAR to decline of 14.2% by 600 basis points. As we look further out, we expect to continue to see headwinds in Houston as the market continues to absorb the new supply there. In Denver, our hotels reported flat RevPAR grow for the quarter. ADR grew 2%, but with fewer citywide room nights year-over-year to drive compression in the market our occupancy dropped by approximately 2%. Looking ahead, we expect to see improvement in the second half as a result of an increase in group activity and corporate production. With respect to Austin, demand in the city remains robust, year-to-date demand was up 4.3%, which was incremental the last year's 5.2% growth. However, during the quarter the demand/supply imbalance combined with the loss of two large citywide events led to overall market softness. Our hotels specifically were further impacted by tough comps from about a $1 million of flood-related business last year that we had affecting our market RevPAR by 445 basis points. Looking ahead, we expect to continue to face an additional softness in 2017 as a result of new supply. However, we are seeing some indications of supply pressure easing in our tracks in 2018 and even further in 2019. In Chicago, the markets saw a strong pickup in citywide activity but did not see a meaningful pickup in compression, resulting in modest RevPAR growth in the overall market of about 0.8%. Although, our hotel did partially benefit from citywide in the quarter, this was offset by the loss of some extended-state project business that did not return leading our RevPAR to decline by 1.6%. As we look out to the second half of the year with fewer citywide on a calendar, we expect performance to remain soft. In New York, where our exposure is now limited to only 4% of our EBITDA, RevPAR declined by 4.8%. Although, the city continues to see impressive demand, this demand has been highly concentrated in select submarkets. And while the closure of the Waldorf has been helpful, there has been a number of rooms which are recently reentered our submarket post renovations offsetting much of the benefit. Accordingly, we expect RevPAR to continue to remain soft here. For our non-top 10 markets, a 3.5% RevPAR decline was soft relative to the last couple of quarters. We expect results to improve during the second half of the year, especially during the fourth quarter in markets such as Tampa, New Orleans and Atlanta. So heading into 2017 we knew the first half of the year would be challenging, given a number of short-term headwinds. This is especially true for the second quarter. Despite this, we still posted 81% occupancy had margins of nearly 38% and generated more than $110 million in EBITDA during the quarter. As we close out the first half and move into the second half of the year, some of our toughest comps are now behind us. As a result, we expect our second half to be better than our first half on a relative basis. We expect our fourth quarter to be better than our third. We will start to lap convention center closures late in the third quarter, which will position us for a better fourth. Additionally, with the Jewish holiday shifting from October to September, the third quarter will be negatively impacted, but the fourth quarter will benefit. Finally, our renovation disruption in the second half is expected to be lower than the first half, and all this being said, initial trends across the industry are pointing to a more muted third quarter. We expect these travel trends will likely translate into a softer third quarter for our portfolio as well. As a result, while we expect our second have to be better than our first, we're taking a more cautionary view of it and adjusting guidance accordingly. Even though we are currently facing some transitory challenges, we continue to believe in the resilience of our portfolio. We have built a high quality portfolio in markets with strong long-term growth prospects. As to the assets, from a RevPAR index standpoint, approximately 80% of our hotels rank in the top half of their respective comp sets, with the majority ranking either first or second within their set. Importantly, our portfolio continues to generate significant free cash flow. It is well-positioned to weather all phases of the lodging cycle and benefit from a number of our markets that are expected to recover in 2018. I’d now like to turn the call over to Leslie for a more detailed review of our operational and financial highlights. Leslie?