Tom Baltimore
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.
As I said earlier, I think part of it is that we, the industry had such a strong quarter and if you look at sort of third quarter as an example, third quarter last year, the industry was so strong, it was up 9.2% and I think Star, we were up 9.6%, side some of the others, almost most of our major markets were up near double digits or more than double digit on RevPAR. So to some extent, we’re a victim of our own collective success. We've done so well. Those comps are tough, there are some unique things about third quarter that I think may get a little bit tougher, we talked about New York, we talked about some of the tough comps in other specifics cities. So as you step back and look at I think on the demand side right now, demand is still outpacing supply, I think the long - last 12 months average is about 330 basis points. Year-to-date, it's about 233 basis. That is again well in excess of the long-term historical average, but for a couple of markets where you are seeing increased supply, clearly New York, the situation in Houston and a few other markets, you’re still seeing really attractive fundamentals. Supply is probably not likely going to eclipse demand until 2017, 2018. We're still seeing very slow [ph], corporate profits are still growing, businesses continue to invest, consumer confidence is improving, housing is improving and we've had somewhat of a muted recovery. We’ve averaged about 2.2% and this recovery, the normal would certainly be 150, perhaps 200 basis points above that. So it's a little bit, not too hot, not too cold and I think as a result of that, you can make, I think a legitimate case that this cycle will run into extra innings, absent some sort of shock. The last two cycles were shortened, the Great Recession, and of course 9/11. So getting back to an elongated cycle here I think is achievable. We’ll have to watch it carefully, I think absent some sort of shock, I think the business is well positioned for future growth.