Earnings Labs

Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 4, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ralph Lauren Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Mr. James Hurley. Please go ahead.

James Hurley

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you for joining us on Ralph Lauren’s Third Quarter Fiscal 2015 Conference Call. The agenda for this morning’s call includes Jacki Nemerov, our President and Chief Operating Officer, who will provide an overview of the quarter and comment on our broader strategic initiative. Chris Peterson, our Chief Administrative Officer and Chief Financial Officer, will provide operational and financial perspective on the third quarter, in addition to reviewing our outlook for the balance of the year. After the company’s prepared remarks, we will open the call up to your questions, which we ask that you limit to one per caller. During today’s call, we will be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including our financial outlook. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees and our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Our expectations contain many risks and uncertainties. The principal risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from our current expectations are detailed in our SEC filings. Now, I turn the call over to Jacki.

Jacki Nemerov

Analyst

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. The third quarter results we are reporting today demonstrate the disciplined operational management of our teams through a competitive holiday season and against the backdrop of an unusually volatile macro environment. The 3% constant currency revenue we achieved in the quarter was below our expectation, largely due to external forces. As the U.S. dollar continue to strengthen against several major currencies and geopolitical tensions remained elevated. There was a sustained negative impact on global tourism, and in certain instances, local customer demand. The U.S. market size was more competitive with greater promotional activity across all distribution channels. We gain share early in the holiday shopping period, which positioned us well as the environment became more competitive in the three weeks before Christmas. I’m proud to report that we navigated these challenges in a brand appropriate way, controlling the controllable and delivering operating profitability at the high end of our outlook. We aggressively managed expenses even as we continue to invest in our long-term strategic growth initiatives. As both a company and the brand Ralph Lauren is always taken a long view and this quarter was no exception. Now let me turn to product highlights of the fall holiday season, and begin with our luxury brands. Both men’s Purple Label and Women’s Collection performed well in the quarter by challenging traffic trends in our retail stores. Not only to these lines represent the purest expression of Ralph’s design vision, but they exemplify the quality craftsmanship and attention to detail that the true luxury customer appreciates. Sportswear and outerwear were particularly strong categories where our distinctive aesthetic proved especially compelling. As you know, we recently launched Polo for women, the high awareness and broad appeal of the Polo brand has translated well to the women’s…

Chris Peterson

Analyst

Thank you, Jacki, and good morning, everyone. I’d like to start with a brief recap of the quarter. Consolidated net revenues rose 1% to $2 billion in the third quarter. Adjusting for FX headwinds, revenues increased 3%, which was achieved on top of a 9% gain on the prior year period, led by the retail segment and driven by our strategic focus on e-commerce and new store development. Every geographic region grew on constant currency during the quarter with the international business up double-digits. Reported revenue actualized below our outlook of 3% to 5% growth, due to negative foreign exchange and weaker than expected trends at our retail stores, which were impacted by a decline in traffic, especially among important tourist customers and a more promotional holiday period in the U.S. Gross profit margin of 57% was a 120 basis points below the prior year period. We anticipated decline in gross profit margin was due to mix impacts, the more promotional U.S. marketplace and unfavorable foreign exchange impacts. Operating margin of 15.5% was 110 basis points below the prior year, entirely attributable to the lower gross profit margin. This was at the high end of the outlook with provided in November, due to strong and proactive expense management throughout the organization and despite incremental investments and new store openings, marketing and infrastructure projects. Net income of $215 million was 9% below the prior year, and net income per diluted share decline 6% to $2.41 million. Moving on to segment performance, wholesale revenues increased 2% in constant currency, which was achieved on top of 14% gain in the prior year period. On a reported basis, wholesale revenues of $837 million or in line with the prior year. Growth in European whole shipments was offset by lower shipments in the Americas due…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Omar Saad with Evercore ISI.

Omar Saad

Analyst

Thanks, good morning. Chris and Jacki, hoping you could elaborate little more on some of the organizational changes that you discussed this morning. The impetus behind them, maybe some more anecdotal ideas around where you can see benefits accrue over time, as you shift the organizational structure and then where you stand on the HR perspective, I believe in teams and people in place for a kind of brand centric global organization. More color on those would be really helpful. Thanks.

Chris Peterson

Analyst

Yeah, let me start, I think that a lot of the work that we’ve done in the company over the last couple of years to globalize the company in terms of our systems, in terms of some of the functions that we move to a global basis, as really enabled us to take the next step. And so we think now is the right time because of a lot of this ground work that we’ve laid over the past couple of years to really set the stage for the new organization model and we think that this creates a platform for future sales and revenue growth acceleration, because what it’s going to enable us to do is be more focused on a by brand basis and really integrate the work of design, merchandizing, marketing, retail store concepts around the world. And so if you think about the way we’re operating today, because of the way we’ve acquired licenses, we’re really operating with many different groups around the world that are performing similar activities. And we believe that this new construct will allow us to enhance the brand clarity and consistency around the world, while driving operating efficiencies at the same time. In terms of where we are from an HR standpoint, I think as we alluded to prepared remarks, this is going to require a detailed design work which we’re in the middle of and we expect to have much more specifics when we come back and talk on the May call on that basis.

James Hurley

Analyst

Next question? Lora we’re ready for the next question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Michael Binetti with UBS.

Michael Binetti

Analyst · UBS.

Thanks, good morning guys. Chris, I was wondering if you could help us with a little more color on your comments on the operating margin outlook for fiscal ’16 when you exclude FX.

Chris Peterson

Analyst · UBS.

Yeah. So I guess I would say a couple of things. First, let me just describe the FX impact a little bit and then I’ll come back to the underlying. So, I think as we mentioned we expect FX at current rates to have about a negative 550 basis point impact on the top-line. A lot of our cost structure is in U.S. dollars, Swiss francs and Hong Kong dollars, because that’s where we have our big standards of operation from an SG&A standpoint from overhead and of course a lot of our manufacturing base is in currencies that have not depreciated as much as the Euro, the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. So when we look at the FX impact on the top-line of 5.5%, the flow through of that to the bottom-line is a little bit over 40% in terms of the impact that it has which is what leads to the $185 million headwind because our cost structure is not denominated in local currency. On the underlying basis, back to your question, I think that we expect our operating margin on the underlying basis to be up versus this year and that’s because some of the investments that we’ve been making in terms of our infrastructure, in terms of the retail store development and in terms of the increased marketing and advertising were seeing positive trends from those that are driving growth in operating margin on an underlying basis. The two headwinds that we have next year which we expect to offset the underlying increase in operating margin are the e-commerce platform, which will be a bigger investment next year than this year, but we believe strategically the right thing for us to do as we’ve talked about in the past and the continuation of our retail store development effort particularly where we’re looking to re-merchandize many of our stores from the world of Ralph Lauren concept into distinctive Ralph Lauren luxury stores or Polo stores, which we think are clearer to the consumer.

James Hurley

Analyst · UBS.

Next question?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from David Glick with Buckingham Research Group.

David Glick

Analyst · Buckingham Research Group.

Yes, thank you. Just a follow-up question on your America’s business, I was just wondering if you can give us obviously the international business in constant currency was very strong, little bit of noise in North American wholesale. How do you think about in the sort of context of the new world as you describe and how do you think about the underlying growth potential on a near and intermediate long-term basis of your wholesale and retail businesses in U.S. in comparison to what continues to be strong performances in Europe and Asia.

Chris Peterson

Analyst · Buckingham Research Group.

I think if you – if we look at the wholesale business, we believe the wholesale business which is largely focused in U.S. and Western Europe as a channel is likely to grow at a sort of a 0% to 2% rate. We believe we have opportunity to grow market share and we’ve pretty consistently been growing market share in that channel if we look over the last 10 years and so we think we can grow a couple of points faster, which would position us at sort of a low to mid-single digit growth rate in the wholesale business going forward. The retail business we believe we can grow faster both driven by the e-commerce business where we had high teens growth in the current quarter and we think that the e-commerce business is going to continue to grow at an accelerated rate, which is why we are investing behind the e-commerce business and then when you go to the brick and mortar retail business, I think that – we think that the brick and mortar retail business, we had strong performance internationally and a little bit of a slowdown and performance in U.S. that was below our expectations primarily driven by traffic trends. We saw traffic trends in the quarter at the factory outlet channel that were down mid-single digits and that’s what really affected us relative to the expectations we had going into the quarter.

Jacki Nemerov

Analyst · Buckingham Research Group.

I think also that in the U.S., the third quarters interesting because what we saw was that we continued to take market share in the quarter even across all of our categories on that we blend and represent, that was – I think unique as certainly the backdrop of the quarter was more challenging around.

James Hurley

Analyst · Buckingham Research Group.

Next question?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Kate McShane with Citigroup.

Kate McShane

Analyst · Citigroup.

Thank you, good morning. Chris, I just wondered if you could walk us through the revenue guidance that you have for the remainder of fiscal year 15, which you’re guiding to be up mid-single-digits in constant currency, which is up against your toughest comp and would be the stronger sales growth of the year. What are the drivers of that and what are you basing your confidence on that this can be achieved in Q4?

Chris Peterson

Analyst · Citigroup.

Yeah, so I think as we look at Q4, we think that we’re planning the business prudently with a mid-single-digit constant dollar comp growth. We have good visibility in our wholesale business from a booking standpoint and we certainly expect the wholesale business in the fourth quarter to grow at a faster rate than what we saw in the third quarter and in the year-to-date period. From a retail standpoint, we are anticipating a bigger impact on retail primarily due to new store openings. So baked into our constant dollar comp guidance is not a big expectation for a constant dollar comp increase. It’s more around the acceleration where we see in the wholesale business as well as the full impact of our retail store development activity and of course we’re continuing to view the e-commerce is operating very successfully, which we have been doing.

James Hurley

Analyst · Citigroup.

Next question?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the Lindsay Drucker Mann with Goldman Sachs.

Lindsay Drucker Mann

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Thanks, good morning, Chris. For the fiscal ‘16 outlook, I just had a question on that, I think it was a $185 million operating profit drag. Number one, is that on a fully unhedged basis and have you hedged any of your inventory that would delay that flow through? Number two, is any of that $185 million occurring in the fourth quarter? Or is that just a fiscal ‘16 number? And then lastly, how much visibility do you have to lower costs from cotton and energy and other items, offsetting some of that operating profit drag? Thanks.

Chris Peterson

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Yeah, okay. So we do hedge our inventory purchases, a portion of our inventory purchases and we typically hedge sort of six to nine months out. So we’re not hedged for the full fiscal year next year and we’re not hedged to the 100% rate. We typically hedge at sort of a 70% of our exposure rate. So there is a significant impact from currency in that guidance for next year that’s inventory related, but there are also will be an additional flow through in the following year from the portion of inventory next year, where we do have a hedge on, if you think forward to fiscal ’17. With regard to the fourth quarter, there certainly is a foreign exchange impact on the bottom-line and on the operating margin in the fourth quarter and in fact it’s fairly significant. And the reason for that is that when you think about the flow through that I talked about earlier, if the FX drag on the top-line is flowing through next year to a little bit over 40% rate. We’re also seeing a similar type of impact in the fourth quarter and with the 550 basis point drag from foreign exchange on the top-line in the fourth quarter, that’s creating an operating margin pressure in the fourth quarter, which is a big part of the reason for our guidance change on operating margin, not just for the fourth quarter, but also for the fiscal year – the current fiscal year. And then on comp on raw material and oil cost, we have some visibility to that and so when we saw the drop in commodities and we saw the strength of the dollar and we saw the drop in oil prices. We immediately began working with the global manufacturing and supply chain teams, who have at this point gone over and met with the number of our manufactures in Asia and began the work on getting cost reduction. We don’t have full visibility to the cost reduction that we’re going to get, but we are certainly confident that we’re going to get some cost reduction as part of this and that’s part of the detailed work that we have and finalizing the budget ahead of us over the next couple of months. There is a timing lag in terms of when that flows through because typically the seasons that we’re negotiating are six months out or so from the time that we began that negotiation process.

James Hurley

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Next question?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Christian Buss with Credit Suisse.

Christian Buss

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

I was wondering if you could talk a bit about retail performance and what your expectations are going forward for outlets versus full price stores.

Chris Peterson

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Yeah, I think on the outlet business, we saw retail comps up in the international outlet business and so we’re seeing sort of a tale of two different environments. In the international business, the outlet business continue to – we are able to continue to drive comp store sales gains and we’re not seeing the traffic declines in the international outlet centers that we are in the U.S. and the U.S. I think the traffic declines that we’re seeing to the center are putting more pressure on that business. It’s still a large business and still a very profitable business for us, but we believe that with the growth of the e-commerce business which is become particularly large in the U.S. that’s starting to cannibalize a little bit into that channel, also as some of the brick and mortar stores that are closer in to the urban areas have gotten more competitive on pricing it’s reduced the consumer desire to drive to get to the outlet center. And so we’re factoring that into our plans as we go forward because we expect that trend, although you can never predict but we certainly think the consumers going to continue to shop more and more on online and as that happens we think that’s going to continue to put pressure on brick and mortar.

James Hurley

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Next question?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Evren Kopelman with Wells Fargo.

Evren Kopelman

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Thank you. Good morning. Can you give a little bit more color around your comments about the promotional environment in the U.S. maybe more by channel what you saw at department stores versus the outlet channel, where you saw the biggest pressure and what do you expect going forward?

Chris Peterson

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Yeah, so I think what we saw was that as we enter – I think Jacki sort of talked about this in the prepared remarks. But as we enter the holiday season, we got off to a pretty strong start over the Thanksgiving period, the week before Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, and then we saw a little bit of a drop in sort of the consumer purchase behavior and that period between the Thanksgiving – the end of the Thanksgiving shopping period and the first couple of weeks of December. And as a result of that what we saw was that a lot of the competitors ratcheted up the promotional intensity in terms of trying to deal with the inventory that they had on the floor and so reacted to that not to ensure that we stayed competitive during the period and I think that’s what we were alluding to in our commentary. And again, that was really a U.S. phenomenon, not so much international.

James Hurley

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Next question?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Joan Payson with Barclays.

Joan Payson

Analyst · Barclays.

Hi, good morning. Could you talk a little bit about the Polo women’s business, how that’s performing in retail stores compared to a point of sale at wholesale and also how it’s doing internationally compared to domestically.

Jacki Nemerov

Analyst · Barclays.

Yes, the Polo women’s business is off to a nice start. As you know, we started that business just this past fall. And we’re seeing a strong response from that younger customer and on an overall basis we are seeing a nice reaction in the department stores. We’re seeing a nice reaction in our retail stores and from an international basis, also a very strong reaction in the international markets in Europe and in Asia. I think that as any new brand is launched, there are opportunities to continue to build and perfect and as we are now receiving next season’s merchandise and so forth, we’re continuing to see those changes and an improvement consistently in the momentum of the brand. We really believe that it’s unique and addresses a new audience and so I would say that we are pleased so far with the results, but more to do and more to build and develop.

James Hurley

Analyst · Barclays.

Next question?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Barbara Wyckoff with CLSA.

Barbara Wyckoff

Analyst · CLSA.

Hi everyone, following on Joan’s question, talk about, please, the performance of Lauren in U.S. department stores this year versus last year and how do you see it going forward?

Jacki Nemerov

Analyst · CLSA.

Our overall performance in the Lauren brand all of its categories which are obviously – we have a sportswear business and important dress business, footwear business and accessory business, multiple licensed businesses and the brand has been growing steadily over as you know many years. I think that we see opportunity in certain aspects of the business, certain businesses are on huge acceleration and other businesses have slowed slightly and we continue to work on a daily basis to be able to address that. The dress business is on fire. Lauren represents the number one dress brand in almost every department store. We’ve had a phenomenal footwear season with accelerated growth in footwear. Our bag business is also building nicely and we had an excellent season in bags. Our sleepwear business, a lot of – our coat business also was spectacular for the season. So I think that it moves on a category by category basis, but overall strong growth in the brand.

James Hurley

Analyst · CLSA.

Next question?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The final question comes from Erinn Murphy with Piper Jaffray.

Erinn Murphy

Analyst

Great, thank you, good morning. Just on the gross margin side, could you just help us aggregate that 120 basis point decline during the quarter? What was tied to the promotional environment versus FX versus mix shift and then, did you guys have to air freight more to work around the port issue. And then just in context with the gross margins, as we think about your guidance for 2016, you talked about constant currency gross margin being up. Just speak to the drivers there. Thank you.

Chris Peterson

Analyst

Yeah, so on the quarter on gross margin, really there were three things that impacted the 120 balance sheet. Certainly, currency had a significant impact as we mentioned the promotional U.S. marketplace and then we had a mix impact as well, and part of that was due to the cadence of our wholesale shipments. The cadence of our wholesale shipments in the quarter, we round up shipping more women’s product in the third quarter than we did men’s product in the third quarter from a growth rate standpoint and the men’s business operates at a significantly higher gross margin for us than the women’s business. And so we saw a mixed impact that was due to the men’s versus women’s growth mix. If you look at those three aspects, I would say that the three aspects were relatively equal in nature. There was not one that was overwhelming relative to the other aspects on gross margin during the quarter. We did have to air freight more product during the quarter. We also round up routing a lot of product via all-water routing. So we shipped it around the U.S. and received it in the East Coast ports. And what that did is Jacki eluded to was that allowed us to avoid some of the issues in the West Coast port situation, but it takes more time to ship it to the East Coast. So we then had to accelerate once the product was unloaded in the East Coast, receipt into our Greensboro distribution center and staffing our Greensboro distribution center to turn that inventory around faster. So we did see an impact from the West Coast port strike. But I would say that impact was relatively minor because of the strong management of our supply chain teams. And with regard to next year, on an underlying basis, we do believe gross margins going to be up as we gone through the initial stages of the budget process and I think there is a couple of reasons for that. One, as we expect the retail segment to grow faster than wholesale and of course our retail segment has higher gross margins than wholesale. Two, we expect the accessories business to grow at a faster rate than the balance of the business and that also tends to be a gross margin sweetener. And then third, at least in constant currency, the international business is projected to grow at a faster rate and of course we have higher gross margins in the international business than we do in the U.S. and so when you look at those three elements, I think all of that is driving us to underlying gross margin that’s improving in next year’s forecast versus this year.

James Hurley

Analyst

Thank you very much for attending and as always, we’ll be available for follow-up calls.