Christopher H. Peterson
Analyst · Citi
Thank you, Jacki, and good morning, everyone. As you've seen in this morning's press release, we're reporting strong third quarter results today. Consolidated net revenues were $1.8 billion, 2% above the prior year period and in line with what we anticipated back in November, despite the disruptive operating environment Roger spoke to earlier. The growth in net revenues primarily reflects continued retail segment expansion that was partially offset by a planned contraction in wholesale shipments. Excluding the impact of strategic decisions to discontinue American Living and store closures associated with the company's Greater China repositioning efforts, in addition to the net negative impact of foreign currency translation, revenues increased 5% in the third quarter. Gross profit margin of 59.3% is a new peak level for the third quarter and was 220 basis points greater than the prior year, which was better than our expectations. The improvement in gross profit margin is primarily attributable to lower input costs, favorable product mix and operational discipline. Operating expenses of $790 million were 4% greater than the prior year, driven by overall business expansion including higher retail segment mix, continued investment in our growth initiatives and approximately $13 million of impairment and restructuring charges related to the discontinuation of Rugby. Operating expense rate of 42.8% was 60 basis points greater than the prior year, but was better than our initial expectations for the quarter, primarily due to disciplined expense management across the organization. Operating expense rate also benefited from a shift in the timing of certain marketing and IT infrastructure spending out of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter. Excluding Rugby-related charges, the third quarter's operating expense rate was approximately 10 basis points below the prior year. Operating income of $304 million was 13% greater than the prior year period and operating margin improved 150 basis points to 16.5%. Excluding Rugby-related charges, operating income increased 17% and operating margin expanded 220 basis points to 17.2%. The lower-than-expected operating expense rate accounted for most of the upside to the operating margin outlook we provided in November. Net income for the third quarter was $216 million, 28% greater than the prior year period, and net income per diluted share increased 30% to $2.31 a share. Excluding Rugby-related charges, net income rose 33% and net income per diluted share grew 35%. The substantial increases in net income and net income per diluted share were the result of higher operating income and a lower effective tax rate of 27%. The nearly 900 basis point decline in the third quarter's effective tax rate was primarily attributable to the net favorable impact of an approximate $15 million discrete tax item in the quarter. Tax rate was better than outlook we provided in November due to the geographic mix of business during the quarter. Regarding our segment highlights for the quarter, wholesale sales of $734 million were 2% below the prior year period as the discontinuation of American Living in fiscal '13, a proactive reduction in shipments to certain European wholesale customers and the net negative impact of foreign currency translation more than offset continued growth in core and emerging merchandise categories in the Americas. Wholesale operating income of $145 million in the third quarter was 29% greater than the prior year, and wholesale operating margin increased 470 basis points to 19.7%. The significant improvement in wholesale operating margin was primarily due to higher gross profit margins as a result of lower input costs, favorable product mix and overall operational discipline. Moving on to the retail segment. Third quarter sales rose 6% to $1.1 billion, supported by a 4% increase in comparable store sales and the contribution from new stores and e-commerce operations. Sales trends continued to be strongest online and at factory stores worldwide. Growth was partially offset by weakness at concession shops in Japan and South Korea, and by store closures associated with the Greater China network repositioning effort. We estimate that Hurricane Sandy had a 1% to 2% negative impact on our comparable store sales growth in the quarter as a substantial portion of our store network was incapacitated for several days and people in the affected areas were primarily focused on recovery and relief efforts. Despite the challenges of the overall retail environment, 4% comp growth in the third quarter was achieved on top of difficult multi-year comparisons. Comp growth was primarily a function of stronger conversion and higher average dollar transaction sizes. Excluding Rugby-related charges, retail segment operating income grew 9% to $211 million in the third quarter, and the retail operating margin increased 60 basis points to 19.8%. The improvement in retail operating income and the expansion in operating margin are primarily due to improved profitability in the Americas and Europe. Licensing revenues were $50 million in the third quarter, 1% greater than the prior year as higher domestic product licensing revenues were partially offset by the transition of certain South American licensing arrangements to directly controlled operations. Operating income for the licensing segment rose 3% to $37 million as a result of higher licensing revenues and lower net costs. Consolidated inventory was up 10% at the end of the quarter, and we spent approximately $78 million on capital expenditures to support new retail stores, shop installations and infrastructure investments. The company repurchased just under 1 million shares of its common stock during the quarter at an average cost of $154.50 a share, utilizing $150 million of our authorized share repurchase program. In the first 9 months of the fiscal year, we repurchased $450 million of stock and returned approximately $578 million to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividend payments. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.4 billion in cash and investments. So a great quarter by any standard and even more so considering the unique environmental challenges we faced. At this point, I'd like to review our outlook for the balance of the year. For the fourth quarter, we expect revenue growth to accelerate and increase by a mid single-digit percentage. Our expectation is based on an 8% to 11% increase in retail segment sales and wholesale sales that are about flat to the prior year period. Included in our consolidated net revenue growth outlook for the quarter is an approximate 300 basis point net negative impact due to strategic decisions regarding certain operations, including store closures associated with the Greater China network repositioning efforts, the discontinuation of American Living and unfavorable foreign exchange effects. Operating margin for the fourth quarter is expected to be approximately 125 to 150 basis points greater than the prior year period due to lower input costs and continued expense management. The fourth quarter tax rate is expected to be approximately 29%. For the full year fiscal 2013 period, we expect revenues to increase by 2%, which includes an approximate 400 to 500 basis point net negative impact associated with strategic decisions regarding certain operations, including store closures associated with the company's Greater China network repositioning efforts, the discontinuation of American Living and unfavorable foreign currency exchange effects. In light of our better-than-expected third quarter results, we're raising our profit outlook for the year. The full year fiscal 2013 operating margin is now expected to be approximately 75 to 100 basis points greater than last year, which compares to our previous expectation of an approximate 50 basis point increase from the prior year's level. We continue to anticipate that an improvement in gross margin will be partially offset by a higher operating expense rate due to the investments we've made in the company's long-term strategic initiatives and to higher retail channel mix. We estimate the full year tax rate at approximately 32%. The fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2013 expectations that I just outlined do not include onetime charges associated with the discontinuation of our Rugby operations. We estimate Rugby-related impairment restructuring charges to be $20 million to $25 million on a pretax basis, which is at the lower end of our original expectation of $20 million to $30 million from last quarter. $13 million of these charges were incurred in the third quarter, and we expect the balance to be recognized in the fourth quarter. We expect all operations to cease before the current fiscal year end for Rugby. We remain committed to reinvesting in the business in order to fund the growth initiatives that have supported the company's strong financial results over the last several years. While we are still in process of refining our fiscal 2014 budget, I did want to provide some qualitative insight into how we're approaching next fiscal year. We expect revenue growth to accelerate from fiscal 2013's level based on the contribution from a number of the growth initiatives we've invested in this year and a more comparable base of business as we will lap the discontinuation of American Living and the store closures associated with our Greater China network repositioning efforts at the end of this fiscal year. Revenue growth is expected to be retail-led in fiscal '14 with international markets and e-commerce leading the growth. We intend to invest in a number of key initiatives as part of the fiscal 2014 plan. These include an acceleration in retail network expansion in China, continued global e-commerce expansion and a significant investment in IT infrastructure. With respect to retail network expansion in China, we expect to incur higher expenses associated with preopening, rent and other costs compared to fiscal 2013. For global e-commerce, we plan to increase our investment to broaden our reach into new countries, upgrade our sites and customer experience in existing markets, and expand warehousing and distribution capacity. Regarding IT infrastructure, we are executing a phased implementation of SAP over the next few years that will require a significant investment in operating expenses and capital. In fiscal 2014, we expect to convert global product procurement and the order of the cash process for our North American wholesale operations from legacy systems to SAP. Over time, we believe SAP implementation will yield productivity improvements and procurement savings in addition to providing the company with a stronger platform for future growth. It's an exciting endeavor for the company, and it's a process I've had a lot of experience with in my past. While we expect the investments we're planning to make in fiscal 2014 to result in higher operating expenses in the near term, they are all expected to generate returns that greatly exceed our cost of capital. We will be completing the fiscal 2014 planning process over the next 2 months, and we'll provide a more detailed outlook for next year when we report our fourth quarter earnings in May. Finally, I wanted to touch on the status of the Chaps men's sportswear license with Warnaco since I know many of you have an interest in learning about our plans for those operations. As I mentioned on the last call, we have the right to terminate the existing license agreement upon a change of control, which would be triggered upon the closing of the transaction between Warnaco and PVH. After reviewing our alternatives, we now expect that if a change of control is triggered, we will terminate the license and look to take direct control of the Chaps men's sportswear operations. Now we'd like to open the call up to questions. Operator, can you assist us with this?