Michael Nierenberg
Analyst · FBR. Your line is open
Thanks, Mandy. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our third quarter earnings call. As you would see by the numbers, we had a terrific quarter. All of our business lines continue to perform very well. I will break out by segments, and then when I am done with opening comments, I will refer to the supplement which has been posted online. In our MSR segment, we announced acquisition of the full MSR from Ocwen, agreement purchase of approximately $100 billion of a full MSR. While we continue to work with Ocwen, the trustees, rating agencies and others to transfer the MSR into our name. We’re taking all measures to try to expedite that process. Since we announced the transaction, we currently transferred about $16 billion out of the $100 billion of full MSRs from Ocwen into our name. As you think about the MSR asset in the portfolio, based on where we are in this current rate environment, the portfolio should do great as we look forward. Our bond portfolio had an excellent quarter as all fixed income assets are seeing very good demand. For the quarter, our portfolio had an unrealized gain of approximately $70 million and our life-to-date unrealized gains in the portfolio are about $380 million. The velocity around our call business should continue to prove over time as advance balances and delinquencies trend lower. In the quarter, we did three non-agency deals, one which closed in Q3 and the other one which closed in early Q4. Total collateral securitized was $1.1 billion between both deals. Our consumer segment had a very good quarter as well and we did one securitization on our Prosper loan. We have purchased $1.7 billion of loans from Prosper with our partners, and this is part of a $5 billion commitment we made last year. In the advance segment, advance balances, as I pointed out earlier, continue to decline and total $4.3 billion. Just to give you -- put that in perspective, when we initially acquired all the advances from both Nationstar and Ocwen, the total was approximately $8 billion. So that’s down very significantly. As we all know with the Fed in play in December, we feel our business is positioned extremely well for current times, and I will now refer to the supplement which has been posted online. So I am going to begin on Page 2. From a portfolio perspective, we had $533 billion UPB of MSRs. That’s broken out between full MSRs and excess MSRs. Our excess MSR portfolio is approximately $190 billion and our full MSR portfolio is about $340 billion. We have call rights on the legacy non-agency mortgage market of a $155 billion. The legacy non-agency mortgage market today is a little bit greater than $500 billion, just to give you -- put that in perspective. We control more mortgage collateral, I think, than anybody in the marketplace today, and again, as delinquencies trend lower and advance balances trend lower, I think you could see acceleration of that pipeline and the cleanup of the legacy mortgage market continue. As you know our portfolio, overall, we try to target mid-teen-type returns, not very easy in this current market. As I pointed out, the demands for fixed income assets is very strong right now. When we look across the portfolio and size our portfolio in various interest rate environments. Our MSR portfolio should continue to perform extremely well in our higher rate environment. And as we look at our bond portfolio, our 90% of our existing bond portfolio is floating rate. Returns for the year on an annual basis are approximately 19%. We've had two dividend increases during the year. When you think about the pipeline in the large addressable market of whether it be mortgage collateral, consumer collateral, a really assets and businesses that we invest in. The U.S. housing market is about $25 trillion and the consumer market is about $2.5 trillion. As we look at Page 3, earnings for the quarter, GAAP net income $226 million or $0.73 per diluted share; core earnings, $199 million or $0.64 per diluted share. And we pay a dividend of $0.50 or $154 million. Page 4 is the snapshot of our portfolio. What we did this quarter is we combined our MSR portfolio to show you the total amount of net investment on our MSR portfolio between excess and full MSR is $2.2 billion. The other part of that is finance. Currently the MSR market is flushed with cash from a financing perspective. So as you know, when we look at the MSR asset, there is times we’ll fund it fully and there is other times that we’ll fund it with financing from our, whether it be our repo counterparties or do securitization in the market around the asset class. Servicer Advances, I think, pointed out continue to trend lower. Currently we have $164 million of net investment in the asset class. As you go down, Residential Securities & Call Rights, we have little over $5 billion of assets. 90% of those are floating rate greater than 90%, and our net investment there is $1.4 billion. On consumer loans, between resi and consumers, just to give you a breakout there, $475 million of equity in the residential loan market. Most of that is due to our call business. We are opportunistic at times. We are not out in the market buying large portfolios and of non-performing loans or reperforming loans. Typically we'll try to source one-off high-coupon-type loan portfolios. And over the course of the past quarter, we've been able to do that with returns greater than 20%. And then cash as of the end of 9/30/’17 was $280 million, and I'll talk about that in a little bit as well. Page 5. For the quarter, quite frankly the business performed like we believe it should have: not eventful; continue to execute around our Call Rights; MSR portfolios continue to well; and the consumer segment, which became a little bit bigger as part of our business, continues to do well also. So for the quarter, real quickly, we agreed to acquire, as I pointed out earlier, roughly $100 billion of non-agency MSRs from Ocwen, purchase price about $400 million. We also agreed to acquire $3 billion of flow MSRs during the quarter. We executed cleanup calls on 43 seasoned, non-agency deals that are in $1 billion in collateral. And then during and subsequent to the end of the third quarter, we completed two non-agency securitizations of $1.1 billion. During the quarter, we purchased $435 million in non-agency mortgage securities, bringing our net equity to about $1.4 billion as of the end of Q3. In Servicer Advances, advance balance continue to decline meaningfully. I pointed that out before, down 32% year-over-year to $4.3 billion as of the end of the quarter. That’s down from $6.3 billion, to give you a sense, as of the end of 3Q in 2016. Total outstanding advance balances versus UPB are about 2.6%. So that’s some of the lower numbers that we have seen in years. On the consumer loan side, Prosper, I pointed that earlier, we did the securitization with a consortium group and then we have a small amount of our own Prosper loans. Net-net, life-to-date IRs are greater than 20% and then the spring capital securitization which continues to perform extremely well. On Page 6, just taking you through the call rights. $155 billion of call rights on a legacy mortgage market of about -- little greater $500 million. Story is the same. Work with servicers, trustees and bondholders have clean up the legacy mortgage market. We buy bonds that are associated with our call rights. As I pointed out earlier, again, asset prices and yields on bonds are not very attractive right now. However, to the extent that we can acquire assets where we have the call rights, we will continue to do that. That’s the investment in the third quarter of about $400 billion of bonds. And then as you look at the strategy, we call the deals. We liquidate the non-performing loans in the REO and mark those to market and then we come out to the market with a securitization. Again, very straight forward. We continue to -- the business lines overall nothing really that different from last quarter. On Page 7, our non-agency security and bond portfolio, as I pointed out, third quarter mark-to-market increase of about $17 million, purchased $435 million at an average price of $0.59. I think the average price of the book is, give or take, $0.70 right now. Quarter-over-quarter, the value net-net of paydowns increased by $58 million. And again, roughly 90% of the non-agency bond portfolio or greater than 90% of the non-agency bond portfolio is floating rate. So as rates go higher, particularly in the front end, and you see LIBOR go higher, we are going to earn more net interest income on our bond portfolio. We’re very happy with that. Call business, I pointed out on Page 8. We did two deals in the quarter, $1.1 billion: one settled in Q4, one settled in Q3. We’ll continue to hopefully accelerate our call business over time. I would anticipate us doing one deal in the fourth quarter, and again, the drivers are lower delinquencies, lower advances and then from a bond standpoint, more discount bonds and seems bond - overall loan prices go higher. Page 9, our MSR portfolio, again, $533 billion. I think this is a fantastic portfolio based on what we are seeing in the market and some of the Fed chatter I think will continue to grow around some of our newer production MSR. And to the extent that we could source some legacy, MSRs will do then. Full MSR portfolio $343 billion, excess $190 billion. During the quarter, very quiet, we have actually passed in a couple of portfolios because we didn’t think that it met our investment parameters. I point that out because we were not going to go out and buy every assets that we see in the marketplace. Page 10 talks a little bit about why our MSR portfolio and why our portfolio is a little bit different. Average loan size is more; FICO lower; very, very seasoned. When you look at -- or speeds, industry average 17, NRZs was 13 gross of 12 net. So our portfolios continue to outperform in the market. That's due to the nature of the portfolios as well as having recapture agreements on our entire portfolio. On Page 11, this just talks to the Prosper investment. We are part of a four-group or four-firm commitment to purchase $5 billion of loans from Prosper. It's us Third Point, Jefferies and Soros. As I pointed out earlier, we purchased a little over $1.5 billion. As part of the investment, we got warrants in the company. As we fund the consumer loans over time, we'll earn those warrants so far as I pointed out life-to-date returns of greater than 20%. While it is early, we expect that investment to be a very, very good one. Page 12 is just our SpringCastle investment. I'm not really going to spend time on that. I'll spend two seconds. Life-to-date IRR is greater than 90%. We received the life-to-date profit of greater than $500 million. We continue to monitor that portfolio. As it pays down at some point we make look refinance it, but we're very happy with our current cost of funds. Page 13 discuss -- shows tops, shows the slide of our Servicer Advance portfolio. As we pointed out, it continues to pay down and go lower currently $4.3 billion of advances of funded with $4 billion of debt, so roughly 93 LTV. If you recall going back to last year, we actually termed out most of our Servicer Advance portfolio into fixed financing because we were concerned about where the short end of the curve would go as it related to rates. And quite frankly, that was a good decision, or it’s a good decision today as we look back in time or I think our next expected maturity on that portfolio where we have to roll that is 2018. On Page 14, that is our residential loan portfolio, currently $2.6 billion. Roughly $1.4 billion is performing. Again, returns on that portfolio continue to be very good between 15% and 20%, and we would expect that to continue. Philosophically there, once again we're not out -- unless it's an opportunistic investment buying large portfolios of loans, unless we think the return hurdles lead our 15% to 20% returns, most of this stuff we're seeing in the marketplace do not. On Page 15, this talks about our portfolio. In higher and lower interest rates, MSRs are going to do great as rates continue to rise. Our non-agency portfolio should continue to do well, because over 90% of those are floating rate. Servicer Advances will become less relevant as the legacy mortgage market cleans up. And then on the consumer loan portfolio, the coupons are high enough so that portfolio should continue to do well. As we look forward, quite frankly, I think it is going to be more the same. We're not going to deploy tons of capital in lower-yielding assets in this rate environment. I think our pace of investment, if you look back to the third quarter, has absolutely slowed down because, quite frankly, we're cautious. I'm little bit concerned about the markets and what -- where the equity markets are and where we think the rate markets are headed, we have plenty of capital right now and we look forward to opportunistic investments and other potential opportunities in the marketplace as we go forward. The MSR pipelines, we're working on few different scenarios or transactions that we hope we could get done over the course for the next quarter. So stay tune. With that, I will turn it back to the operator and we’ll open it up for questions.