Gary Friedman
Analyst · Guggenheim Securities. You may now ask your question
I don’t know if we caught the right margin profile or what, we think about what’s possible. And I don’t think anybody would have – I don’t think there is an analyst on the street that has a 20% operating margins in the next five years. So, when you say what’s right, it’s this, there is – we saw a path to 20%. How quickly was it going to unfold, a lot of it comes down to the desirability of your product when it relates to margins, right. So, we are seeing now as we have transitioned and – transitioned from a single source rug relationship to direct sourcing model in rugs. We got a very different business and it’s very different margin profile that’s lifting the business. We’ve talked to you guys about kind of annualizing the accelerated clearance of products through our outlet division. A year ago that dragged margins, that’s now washed through and we are seeing, what I would call more normalized margins there. I’d start with, if you think about the 21.8 or the 47.5 we hit in margins, we did that on – even thinking about it from a gross margin point of view or operating margin point of view, we did that in flat revenues, right. So, what we are doing is, when I wrote in the letter that we now expect that we will reach 20% operating margins in 2020 with 5% revenue growth, what I was trying to do is give you a floor, right, a floor for this year. I don’t think there is any way we will go under 5% revenue growth, but I don’t know all the stores shutdown again, who the hell knows, what can happen with this pandemic. I mean, it seems like things are kind of getting better not worst. And so, we think that consumers used to wearing masks now. People are used to social distancing. In many markets you see, cases going down. So, we think we are pretty safe to say, I mean, you guys could do the math, if you back into the math on 5% revenue growth for the year, it’s about 18% in the second half, right. So, we kind of think today that seems like a floor. And at that kind of revenue growth, we are comfortable with having 20% operating margins. And if you just kind of step away from the pandemic, and the whole – all the things that are happening with COVID, I am actually quite happy to take through that our revenues are flat this quarter. Because what it does is it helps get rid of the noise and helps us see our underlying business model and helps potential investors see and recognize the underlying business model that we built here, right, that we’ve invested in for the past five years kind of re-architecting the entire business model. And kind of positioning the brand more as a luxury brand. I think that there is opportunities in every part of the margin structure of the business. We are at the early stages about elevating the product. I mean, you’ll hear more soon about some really important strategic moves we are going to do continue to elevate the RH brand and position it as a luxury brand in the marketplace. I think that is going to give us more product margin opportunity. And that also can relate to shifting margin opportunity, right. If the product prices go higher, same cost structure moving products through this supply chain. The other thing that you’ve got to think about is, we are still pretty early in the transformation of our real estate. And when we transform a gallery in a market, we basically – the first year or two, I think we have a couple that went longer than two years, but, first one year to three years, and mostly one year, we double the revenues at retail in that market. So, you think about the just the leverage you are going to get in the – side of the business, but also against the SG&A side of the business at a corporate level, right. So, we can see a pretty clear path that we feel pretty confident over the long-term that we now see an opportunity to get to 25% operating margin in the business. And that assumes investments in international and it assumes there will be a little bit of a kind of – it’s not going to be a complete straight-line. There will be some quarters where we are opening a new DC internationally and it will be a drag for a little bit. I don’t think it will be enough of a drag to massively impact the company, because we are not just opening the DC and having our revenue move a little. We are opening a DC in an entirely new continent and I think we are going to see pretty fast revenue growth. And so, I think we’ll see kind of that normalize very quickly. But I’d say, you just think about since, I don’t know, 2016 when we – as I said, when we launched Modern in the end of 2015 and I’d refer to it as – you go public. And you put a car in a race track and you are on the quarterly race track and it kind of narrows your view and we were kind of perfect public company I think for 13 – 12 or 13 straight quarters and then we blew a tire. And most companies blow a tire and bring the car into the pits and change the tire and fill up the gaps and they go back kind of on the race track. And we decided we were going to rebuild the whole car. And we decided – we knew it was going to – we are going to take a lot of flag for it and we refer to it as we were going to march to help for a heavenly cause. And we kept the car in the pits for, I don’t know, a year-and-a-half. And nobody really believed what we were working on and we said is, what people don’t believe and what we are doing, what we do and we raised $1.2 billion or something, bought back 60% of our company and brought an entirely new car under the race track, like with a jet engine. And so, we’ve now sling shoted past everybody in our industry, right. 20% or 20% plus operating margin wherever it unfolds, we are going to have – I mean, what I like is that 5% revenue growth, we would had a plan slightly higher than that. So the fact that we are at 20% this year. Just as at the underlying business model has this systemic shift. It really has nothing to do with COVID at all, right. There is going to be a lot of people that have a very temporal lift to their business and when this thing changes and kind of heads back to normal, there may not be anything systemic there. We have a 20% operating margin floor now on basically flat to up 5%. So now you think about the business growing at 8% to 12%. Over the next several years, you think about where you are going to get leverage in margin in that model, if you think about continuing to take this brand up to the luxury mountain and the kind of leverage that will get – the key become – it’s one of the reasons why in the second half, right, we decided not to mail our call books. Because quite frankly, one, we’d be mailing and possibly creating incremental demand, we don’t have product for it. The newness because the factories are behind would delay. So, that’s costly to have back orders. And we thought let’s take this time and focus on the next few really big moves. So, all the time and energy it would take us to normally develop the seasons and develop the books and launch everything, we are actually going to refocus that time to rebuild every category in the business and we believe we can take the floor up there, right. If you think about it, if we really do our job well, there might be 10 or 20 comps in the core business just by going category-by-category, down to the detail and re-architecting the assortments which you don’t get a chance to do when you are kind of just running the business. And so, and then, focusing our time on architecting the web portal, the world of RH which we think will be a leapfrog and focusing our energy on launch in Europe. So, I think what’s different about RH in a lot of ways and what’s unique about us is, we invest really with a long-term view. And I think that’s why we have one of the best performing stock since our public offering in 2012. It’s funny I was doing interview with someone for a magazine and clearly this person was – have been talking to a bunch of short sellers or non-believers in our company, I could just tell by the tone of a question. Then I kind of said, you know, like I can tell by your tone, you have a lot of sources that are sharing their feelings with you and I said, why don’t we just start with some facts, because a lot of times when you think about a company like ours that invests with a long-term view, you have somewhat of a volatile stock over the short-term, but it can really perform as a long-term, I said, so why don’t we move from feelings to facts. I said, here is the fact for you. On November 2, 2012, our company went public in $24 a share. It’s increased, and I don’t know where the stock will close tomorrow, but where it closed today, it’s increased 14 times in value in just under eight years. It’s one of the best performances as a publicly traded company during that time period. It’s better than LDMH. It’s better than Home Depot. It’s better than Starbucks. It’s better than Nike. It’s better than Lululemon and even better than Apple. And it’s depending on where a stock closes tomorrow, it’s better than Amazon. And I don’t think anybody even recognizes that, right. I don’t think anybody stops to kind of motor up and look at the long-term and say, what are they doing here? I think people get trapped in a short-term view, quarter-to-quarter kind of microscope and they can’t see the bigger picture. And – but we try to motor up and see the whole chessboard, right. And we try to see all the moves and we like to say inside our company don’t move until you see it, right. And so, - since we brought the car which is now a jet out of the pit in late 2016 early 2017, I think we’ve basically done everything we’ve told you we were going to do, right. And we’ve probably delivered now, we are going to deliver 20% operating margins. I mean, five years ahead of, I think any analyst had us – Wall Street or seven years working anybody’s model, lot of people had it like 17% five years from now, 18%. We thought we were two to three years away. And now, it’s kind of a reset, right. We are saying we got a new floor and we have a path to 25% operating margins. We don’t mix step up here. I mean, I can’t give you every single little detail of the puzzle. But I’d say, if you look at our past performance, and you look at the big picture, we are a company that 20 years ago started this journey as a nearly bankrupt company with a $20 million market cap. I don’t know, tomorrow we’ll probably be at, we have a market cap somewhere around $7 billion. So, we think we are a really good bet. And I think people that take a long view and look at the big picture here and look at the facts versus their feelings, I think they are going to be really happy they invested in RH if they want to hold the stock for five to ten years, because I think we’ll be among the best performers in anybody’s portfolio over that time horizon. It’s a longer answer than you asked, but you know, what I shared is a big picture view, so.