Chris Killoy
Analyst · Brian Rafn of Morgan Dempsey Capital Management. Your line is open
Sure. Thanks, Mike. Financial results: For 2016, net sales were $664.3 million, and diluted earnings were $4.59 per share. For 2015, net sales were $551.1 million and diluted earnings were $3.21 per share. For the fourth quarter of 2016, net sales were $161.8 million and diluted earnings were $1.10 per share. For the corresponding period in 2015, net sales were $152.4 million and diluted earnings were $0.88 per share. Our 2016 EBITDA was $171.4 million, or 26% of sales; and our 2015 EBITDA was $132.5 million, or 24% of sales. For the fourth quarter of 2016, our EBITDA was $42.5 million, or 26% of sales. These results compared favorably to our fourth quarter 2015 EBITDA of $36 million, or 24% of sales. Demand: For 2016, the estimated sell-through of our products from the independent wholesale distributors to retailers increased 12% from 2015. During this period, the National Instant Criminal Background Check System background checks, as adjusted by the National Shooting Sports Foundation and commonly referred to as NICS checks, increased 10%. For the fourth quarter of 2016, the estimated sell-through of our products from the independent wholesale distributors to retailers decreased 4% from the comparable prior year period. During this period, the NICS checks were flat. For the month of December, adjusted NICS checks decreased 17% compared to December 2015. Not unexpectedly, in January 2017, NICS decreased from the comparable prior year period by 24%, indicating the consumer demand for certain firearms has softened since last year. As we discussed during our last call on November 2nd, just prior to the election, we observed many customers spending discretionary income on concealed carry products and modern sporting rifles in the recent months, leading up to the election. At the same time, we also observed retailers committing inventory dollars to certain product categories such as modern sporting rifles, which likely would have been in stronger demand if the election had turned out differently, given their relative vulnerability to legislative actions. The combination of increased inventory in the channel and the likely decrease in consumer demand for the near-term has made for a more challenging sell-through environment. New product development: We believe that new products are key driver of demand. New products represented $192.6 million or 29% of firearm sales in 2016, compared to $115.4 million or 21% of firearm sales in 2015. New product sales include only major new products that were introduced in the past two years. In 2016, new products included the Precision Rifle, the AR-556 modern sporting rifle, the LC9s pistol, the Mark IV pistols, the LCP II pistol, and the American pistol. Our major new product launches in 2016 included the Ruger Mark IV pistols, the LCP II pistol and compact models of the American pistol. Production and inventory: We review the estimated sell-through from the independent distributors to retailers as well inventory levels at the independent distributors and in our warehouses, semi-monthly to plan production levels and manage inventory levels. These reviews and increased production capacity of products and strong demand resulted in an increase in total unit production of 23.5% in 2016 compared to 2015. The Company’s finished goods inventory increased by 70,000 units and distributor inventories of the Company’s products increased by 48,300 units during 2016. Again, this is somewhat the result of all levels of the distribution channel stocking up to higher than normal levels of certain products in anticipation of the November 2016 elections. We expect to manage our production to moderate inventory growth and capitalize on opportunities that present themselves in 2017. Balance sheet: At December 31, 2016, our cash and cash equivalents totaled $87 million, an increase of $18 million from December 31, 2015. Our current ratio was 2.8 to 1 and we have no debt. At December 31, 2016, stockholders’ equity was $265.9 million which equates to a book value of $14.23 per share. Cash flows: In 2016, we generated $104.8 million of cash from operations. We reinvested $35.2 million of that back into the Company in the form of capital expenditures. We estimate that capital expenditures in 2017 will be approximately $40 million. Our primary focus for investment will be new product development as well as increased capacity for products and strong demand. Cash returned to shareholders: In 2016, the Company returned $47 million to its shareholders through the payment of $33 million of dividends and the repurchase of 283,300 shares of our common stock at an average price of $49.43 per share for a total of $14 million. At December 31, 2016, $59 million remained authorized for future stock repurchases. Our share repurchases have continued in 2017. From January 1 through February 17, 2017, we’ve repurchased 633,600 shares of our common stock in the open market at an average price of $49.67 per share for a total of $31.5 million. Since November 2016, we have repurchased 917,000 shares or 4.8% of the outstanding shares. Given our practice of paying 40% of our net income as dividends, the reduction in outstanding shares will not only benefit our earnings per share, it will also directly benefit our dividends per share. Our Board of directors declared a $0.44 per share quarterly dividend for shareholders of record as of March 17, 2017, payable on March 31, 2017. As a reminder, our quarterly dividend is approximately 40% of net income and therefore varies quarter-to-quarter.