Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q2 2015 Sturm, Ruger Earnings Conference Call. My name is Steve, and I'll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Michael Fifer, Chief Executive Officer. Please proceed. Michael O. Fifer - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, and welcome to the Sturm, Ruger & Company second quarter 2015 conference call. I'd like to ask Kevin Reid, our General Counsel, to read the caution on forward-looking statements, which will be followed by a quick overview of the second quarter, and then we can get right into your questions. Kevin? Kevin B. Reid - Vice President & General Counsel: Thank you, Mike. We'd want to remind everyone that statements made in the course of this meeting that state the company's or management's intentions, hopes, beliefs, expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements. It is important to note that the company's actual results could differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained from time to time in the company's SEC filings, including, but not limited to, the company's reports on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and Form 10-Q for the quarter just ended June 27, 2015. Copy of these documents may be obtained by contacting the company or the SEC or on the company website at www.ruger.com/corporate or of course at the SEC website at www.sec.gov. We reference non-GAAP EBITDA. Please note that the reconciliation of GAAP net income to non-GAAP EBITDA can be found in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 27, 2015, which are also posted on our website. Furthermore, the company disclaims all responsibility to update forward-looking statements. Mike? Michael O. Fifer - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Kevin. Financial results. For the second quarter of 2015, net sales were $140.9 million and fully diluted earnings were $0.91 per share. For the corresponding period in 2014, net sales were $153.7 million and fully diluted earnings were $1.12 per share. For the first half of 2015, net sales were $277.8 million and fully diluted earnings were $1.71 per share. For the corresponding period in 2014, net sales were $323.5 million and fully diluted earnings were $2.34 per share. Our second quarter 2015 EBITDA was $36.2 million or 26% of sales, and our second quarter 2014 EBITDA was $42.1 million or 27% of sales. Demand. The estimated sell-through of the company's products from the independent wholesale distributors to retailers, which we believe to be the best available measure of demand, decreased 2% in the second quarter from the second quarter of 2014. For the first half of the year, estimated sell-through declined 9% from the first half of 2014. We believe that demand for the company's firearms in the second quarter and first half of 2015 declined from the comparable periods in 2014 due to more conservative restocking behavior at retailers. We believe retailers experienced relatively weak consumer demand through much of 2014 and felt overstocked in the latter half of 2014. The National Instant Criminal Background Check System numbers as adjusted by the National Shooting Sports Foundation, which are commonly referred to as NICS checks, increased 3% in the first half of 2015 compared with the first half of 2014. While we believe that the aggregate NICS data is the best available proxy for consumer demand, recent analysis of state-by-state numbers occasionally shows a low correlation with the anecdotal retailer reports of consumer behavior. For example, the June 2015 Connecticut numbers would indicate that Connecticut transactions more than doubled from 2014. That is extremely unlikely. Nonetheless, the aggregate mix numbers generally seem to follow what we believe to be the trends in consumer demand. So we will continue to monitor them and report them in comparison to our estimated sell-through numbers. Anecdotal reports from a number of retailers indicate that we have maintained our market share in 2015, that consumer demand in 2015 has been stronger than in 2014, that retailers are in a better stocking position than one year ago, and that retailers have some cautious optimism for the balance of the year. New product development. We believe that new products are a key driver of demand. Our recent new product launches include the SP101 double-action revolver in 327 Federal Magnum, the 77 bolt-action rifle in 17 Winchester Super Magnum, the Mini-14 Tactical rifle in 300 AAC Blackout, the Redhawk double-action revolver dual chambered in 45 Auto and 45 Colt, the second edition of the Ruger Collector Series 10/22 Rifle, the SR-556 Takedown rifle, and most recently, the Ruger Precision Rifle. New products represented $47.7 million or 17% of firearm sales in the first half of 2015. New product sales include only major new products that were introduced in the past two years such as the LC9s pistol and the AR-556 Modern Sporting Rifle. The Ruger Precision Rifle will be included in the future, but it launched in July and had no impact on second quarter results. Production. In the second quarter of 2015, net sales increased 3% and earnings increased 14% from the first quarter of 2015. That is a direct result of the 32% increase in unit production from the first quarter of 2015, which resulted in improved efficiencies. It also resulted in increased inventories at the company and at the independent wholesale distributors. The company and the independent distributors were willing to increase inventories both to restock from the significant inventory reduction in the first quarter of 2015 and in anticipation of the new recently announced summer retailer programs. We've previously described the distributor show season that occurs every January and February and how the retailer buying programs that are offered at that time affect buying patterns for the next several months. Typically, the company has only offered programs during that time of the year. However, that is not typical of the industry as the major retailer buying groups hold summer shows that most manufacturers and many of the large independent retailers participate in. This year, the company has decided to offer summer retailer programs to encourage retailers to stock the company's products as fully in the second half of the year as they typically do in the first half of the year. In a related note, the selling expense in the second quarter increased in large part due to accruals for the anticipated expense of the new summer retailer programs. We also learned an inventory lesson after the industry and the company experienced a decline in demand following the post 2008 election search. Throughout 2010, the company was extremely cautious about inventory levels and managed production rates to minimize inventory build. When consumer demand sharply rebounded in late 2010, the company increased production very quickly but not quickly enough to take full advantage of that demand. Looking back, we believe we left significant opportunity for increased earnings on the table in early 2011 as a result. We think there are parallels between the decline in consumer demand in 2014 and the one in late-2009 and having experienced – and having learnt from the prior experience, we are more comfortable with higher inventory levels. Firearms are fortunately non-perishable products and we want to be fully prepared when demand rebounds. Cash flows. In the first six months of 2015, we generated $80.9 million of cash from operations. We reinvested $16.3 million of that back into the company in the form of capital expenditures. Note, that is a 29% reduction from the comparable prior-year period. The reduction is not indicative of any decrease in our new product development effort but rather is primarily the result of repurposing equipment after we've dramatically cut production rates in the second half of 2014. We estimate that our capital expenditures in 2015 will be approximately $30 million. Our primary focus for investment continues to be new product development. Balance sheet. At June 27, 2015, our cash and cash equivalents totaled $61 million, an increase of $52 million from December 31, 2014. Our current ratio was 2.2-to-1 and we have no debt. At June 27, 2015, stockholders' equity was $208 million, which equates to a book value of $11.12 per share, of which $3.27 is cash. Cash returned to shareholders. In the first half of 2015, the company returned $12 million to its shareholders through the payment of $9.2 million of dividends and the repurchase of 82,100 shares of our common stock at an average price of $34.57 per share for a total of $2.8 million. At June 27, 2015, $73.2 million remains authorized for future stock repurchases. Our board of directors had declared a $0.36 per share quarterly dividend for shareholders of record as of August 14, 2015, payable on August 28, 2015. As a reminder, our quarterly dividend is approximately 40% of net income. Those were the highlights of the second quarter. Operator, may we please have the first question?