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Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)

Q2 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 7, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Royal Gold Fiscal 2019 Second Quarter Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note, this event is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Alistair Baker, Director of Business Development. Please, go ahead.

Alistair Baker

Analyst

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, and welcome to our discussion of Royal Gold second quarter 2019 results. This event is being webcast live and you will be able to access a replay of this call on our website. Participating on the call today are Tony Jensen, President and CEO; Bill Heissenbuttel, CFO and Vice President of Strategy; Mark Isto, Vice President Operations; and Bruce Kirchhoff, Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary. This discussion falls under the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. A discussion of the company's current risks and uncertainties is included in the safe harbor and cautionary statement in today's press release and slide presentation, and is presented in greater detail in our filings with the SEC. Tony will give you an overview of the quarter, followed by Mark with an update on our operating results, Bill will then provide a financial update, and Tony will close up the call with some commentary on the current market environment. We'll then open the lines for a Q&A session. Now, I will turn the call over to Tony.

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Thanks, Alistair. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the call. I'll begin on Slide 4. Our revenue for the quarter was $97.6 million, down slightly from our previous September quarter of $100 million. Bottoms Volumes were down slightly over the same period by about 3%, which is consistent with the guidance we provided in our last quarterly call. Metal prices were roughly in line with the quarter -- with the last quarter, with realized goal and copper prices up 1% and silver prices down 3%. Earnings for the quarter were $0.36 per share, which included a tax benefit of approximately $6 million and a loss of $3.6 million due to the mark to market on the value of equity securities. Bill will provide further details on these items in his remarks. Operating cash flow was $59 million, which comfortably allowed the payment of another $16.4 million in dividends during the quarter. Consistent with previous years, our board announced on November 13 that the dividend was increased from $1 to $1.06 per share for the calendar quarter of calendar year. Paying a growing sustainable dividend is one of our keys strategic objectives at Royal Gold and this increase continues our record of consistently raising our dividend since it was initially introduced in 2000. We have now returned approximately $460 million to shareholders in the form of dividends over the same period. We also continued to strengthen our balance sheet during the quarter, with working capital of $167 million and a non-drawn revolving credit facility of $1 billion, we now have approximately $1.2 billion of total liquidity and are well positioned for new investment opportunities. On Slide 5, I'd like to take a few minutes to give you an update on the Peak Gold project. As a reminder, this is…

Mark Isto

Analyst

Thanks, Tony. Starting on Slide 6, I'd like to discuss some of our recent developments at several of our operating key properties. At Mount Milligan, 2018 production was very good considering the constraints on water throughput -- constraints on throughput caused by water restrictions. Gold and copper production for calendar year 2018 achieved a high end of the revised guidance published in August. And gold production was 195,000 ounces compared to the guidance range of 175,000 to 195,000 ounces. And copper production was 47.1 million pounds compared to the guidance range of 40 million to 47 million pounds. During the December quarter, production from Mount Milligan was 60,000 ounces of gold and 11.8 million pounds of copper. Sufficient water supply has been an issue at Mount Milligan for several quarters. The operation was designed to use surface water runoff for makeup process water. But during the past three years, this area of British Columbia has seen precipitation levels that are about half of what long-term records indicate. As a result, process water has been in short supply in the past couple of years. As you can see on the graph at the bottom of the slide, quarterly average throughput has suffered since late 2017 when the issue became apparent. With respect to water sourcing and associated permitting activities at Mount Milligan, Centerra has reported that permitting applications are in process to draw additional flow during the spring melt period for the next freak 3 years from each of Philip Lake, Rainbow Creek and Meadow Creek. If these applications are approved, Centerra plans to store this additional water in the tailings facility for use during the remainder of the year, which will allow operations to continue at full capacity. In addition to this strategy, it is intended to bridge -- in…

William Heissenbuttel

Analyst

Thanks, Mark. I'll turn your attention to Slide 9. As Tony mentioned at the beginning of his remarks, revenue this quarter was $97.6 million on volume of 79,600 gold equivalent ounces. This volume was in line with our expectations as we discussed during our fiscal first quarter conference call. Earnings were $23.5 million, down from adjusted earnings of $28 million in the second quarter of the last fiscal year. Although there were a number of specific items related to the new tax law that impacted both quarters. With respect to volume we saw GEOs decline 11% in fiscal Q2 relative to the same period last year. Volumes were impacted by lower gold stream sales from Andacollo and Pueblo Viejo, which were partially offset by higher gold and copper sales from Mount Milligan and improved contribution from Rainy River. We also saw a reduction in royalty revenue due to lower production at Peñasquito and Cortez, which was partially offset by $2.5 million of royalty revenue this quarter from Voisey's Bay. This is the third quarter for which we've received royalty contribution from Voisey's Bay. Metal prices had a negative effect and we're down across the board, with gold down 4%, silver down 13% and copper down 9% year-on-year. With respect to certain items of note, we experienced 2 this quarter. The first is related to tax. In this quarter, we experienced the benefit of approximately $6 million or $0.09 a share due to additional utilizable foreign tax credits resulting from U.S. tax reform. While we had previously estimated taxes payable under the new tax law, we, like all other U.S. taxpayers, needed additional regulations from the IRS in order to fully reflect its impact. We were able to recognize that impact with respect to foreign tax credits this past quarter. While…

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Thanks, Bill, and Mark, both of whom are fighting some pretty serious colds, so thanks for fighting through that. I'll conclude on Slide 11 following on Bill's last comment about our liquidity and strong financial position, and what that means to us in today's market? We often say that there are 3 ways that new business opportunities come to us. The first is through balance sheet restructuring, the second is through financing of development projects, and the third is through financing M&A transactions. Royal Gold has been active in all of these areas at different times in our history, and opportunities will present themselves from each of these sources at different times and frequencies, depending on the market environment. We were extremely busy in the 2014 to 2016 period, helping to refinance balance sheets. But the industry has now much better capitalized and balance sheet restructuring is not a major source of new business today. More recently, many of the opportunities we've been working on have been financing development projects, which is the second source of new business opportunities. With a continued growth in the trend of passive investing and generally negative investor sentiment towards the mining industry, there has been a lack of new equity in the sector, which has typically been a major source of financing for new projects. The cost of debt has also been rising, and many companies are hesitant to use debt financing, given recent history. As a result, we have been very busy, working to try to fill the gap by providing capital to project development opportunities, which are typically smaller transactions than what we saw in the 2014 to 2016 period. With respect to the third source of new business, M&A, we're seeing some very interesting business opportunities given the state of play…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The first question is from Josh Wolfson of Desjardins.

Joshua Wolfson

Analyst

First quick question on Voisey's Bay. The revenue that we saw in the fourth quarter is that something we should expect roughly going forward with the new agreements?

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Josh, I think that's a pretty good run rate. That's a very stable operation, we don't expect major variances from the production itself. The only variance that, of course, we're not in control of would be the nickel price.

Joshua Wolfson

Analyst

Right, I won't hold you accountable for those changes. And I guess, bigger question on the Peak Gold JV. I understand, there is obviously a lot of conversations that are happening that are confidential. But maybe just bigger picture, our understanding is that Royal Gold is interested in streams, but given its stake in the asset level, it's interested in Contango as well as having royalties, it would seem to be the interest that it would be too large to convert to this stream. So in the conversations that are happening, are there any sort of disclosures or information you can provide on how the company would resolve that? Or what its best, sort of, outlook would be there?

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Thanks for the question, Josh. And we are, at this point, coming to the market with Contango as well, so they also are part of our market test. And we'll see whether this is the right time to monetize our asset or not, only the market will tell us that. But we think it should be quite valuable. And certainly, the consideration that Contango might want and what we might want are different things, but let me just speak to the Royal Gold side of that discussion. And let's not limit ourselves to potential compensation to just Peak Gold. Perhaps, there's another asset in the portfolio of an acquiring company that we might be able to obtain a stream upon as well. And I kind of like that strategy, obviously self-serving, because that's puts us over the core part of our business. But it also allows the acquiring company to pay for the acquisition over time out of the production from our asset, and not simply transfer a whole bunch of cash to us on day one. So we don't know if we're going to be successful on that strategy. We think it makes sense and we're hopeful that it will make sense to some of the parties that are looking at the project.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The next question is from Alex Hunchak of CIBC.

Alex Hunchak

Analyst

I was wondering if you could just remind me of the time line of those permits that Centerra is waiting for right now? And I'm assuming that they don't apply to the, sort of, April of this year ramp-up, but that they are kind of needed for next year to avoid having to ramp backed out again, is that right?

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Thanks, Alex. So we understand that Centerra is expecting the ability to increase the flow rate at the sources they already have like rainbow Creek and Meadows Creek. And we expect that -- we understand that they expect the permits to come before the spring melt, which is absolutely crucial and will allow them to capture more of that spring melts retain it into the tailings facility. So that's what I can tell you on the permit side. On the -- I think your question, the part 2, was a bit around production. But let me just say that in the guidance that Mark gave you, the lower first quarter production, I believe at 30,000 tonnes per calendar day, was incorporated into that production schedule. So if they're able to better than that obviously that would be a benefit to the guidance they've put out already. Alex, is that responsive to both parts of your question?

Alex Hunchak

Analyst

I think that covers it, I feel. That's great.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

I have two questions. And one of them is just a clarification just so that I understand. Just on the guidance that was provided for fiscal Q3, I just want to make sure that I understood it, it's going to be about 5% higher than fiscal Q2 on your stream sales? Was that what you said?

Mark Isto

Analyst

That's correct.

Tony Jensen

Analyst

That's correct, Tanya.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

And modest pull on the inventory levels, is that on all 3 inventories?

Mark Isto

Analyst

We think of the inventories in gold equivalent ounces. We don't separate it by metal.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. Okay. Okay, that takes care of that one. And then just maybe coming back to the M&A environment, and this one's for you, Tony, or whoever wants to take this question. I mean there's a lot of assets out there now for sale and obviously, lots can happen that there. But just from yourself, when you look at your third option of financing M&A transaction, perhaps, just a little bit about -- is there a certain level of geopolitical risk that you are looking at? So for example, perhaps, you don't want more exposure to Africa or are you looking at streams over royalties? Some of these assets may not be able to take on the streams or maybe there are some. So maybe a little bit more on your strategy there.

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Yes, Tanya, thanks for the question. So we very much will not compromise our 3 pillars of due diligence, where we look at the project itself and the quality, and can it sustain the stream. We often look at that project from the operator's perspective, and we don't want our stream to push the project up into the fourth quartile. And so that's a -- just a very basic guidance that we do in any acquisition. The second pillar would be the people and making sure that we have very comfortable operating team and capable operating team to manage the asset. And then finally, would be the place and we're always going to be guided by our geopolitical risk appetite and being able to get comfortable wherever the asset is at. And those may be -- anyone of those may be a showstopper for us in investing in a project. And when they all 3 come together, then that's a recipe for investment for us. So we won't cross any -- I think you've been with us long enough to know the areas that we're comfortable in, there are certain countries in Africa that we're comfortable operating in, we're very much comfortable up and down the Americas with the exceptions, the obvious exceptions. And certainly in Asia-Pacific, there's many places there, particularly in Australia that we will be quite comfortable doing business in. So those are a bit of bread-and-butter but that's -- our strategy won't change as we think about this new environment.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

And the new environment, Tony, are you focused mainly on gold and silver because there are some non-gold assets that may be coming up for sale. Are you looking at any of those? Or streams on those?

Tony Jensen

Analyst

We very much are quite pleased to be probably the highest percentage of gold, highest percentage of precious metals certainly of the major streamers. And that's where our focus is and I always caveat that to say if I, on a small investment basis, could get an interest in something that is non-precious metal but would very much be a decent rate of return on long-term asset, we might take a look at it, but we're not out there focusing on it, we're very much focused on the precious metals.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. And then I guess my last one just on the M&A, I know I ask you this almost every quarter, Tony, but sort of the size range for us. Now that we have a new financing M&A sort of environment, sort of the last time I think we talked about most of the deals you were looking at were somewhere I think in the $200 million to $300 million range.

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Yes.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

What sort of range are we looking at now, in this new environment?

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Right, I would say $200 million plus or minus, would be probably the best guidance that I could give there. I think $300 million might be a quite sizable deal in this market environment.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tony Jensen for closing remarks.

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Well, thank you for taking the time to join us. And on the call, we also have Dan Breeze, who is in our Zug office and manages our international business development activities and we're absolutely just pleased and tickled to have Dan join our team, starting on the start of this year and he's already off to an impactful start. So I look forward to Dan taking an active role on these calls and future sessions. But a big shout out and welcome to Dan to our Royal Gold team. With that, we thank you for your interest and we look forward to speaking again in the very near future. Bye for now.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.