Earnings Labs

Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, May 2, 2013

$237.12

-3.63%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.87%

1 Week

+2.43%

1 Month

+1.86%

vs S&P

-0.53%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Michele and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Royal Gold Fiscal 2013 Third Quarter Conference Call. All lines have been placed on-mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Karen Gross. Please go ahead.

Karen Gross

Management

Thank you, operator. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today to discuss Royal Gold’s fiscal 2013 third quarter results. This event is being webcast live and you will be able to access a replay of the call on our website. Participating on the call today are Tony Jensen, President and CEO; Stefan Wenger, CFO and Treasurer; Bill Heissenbuttel, Vice President, Corporate Development; Bill Zisch, Vice President, Operations; Bruce Kirchhoff, Vice President and General Counsel; and Stan Dempsey, Chairman. Tony will open with an overview of the quarter followed by Stefan with the financial review and the Bill Zisch will discuss the performance of our portfolio. After management completes their opening remarks we will open the lines for Q&A. Before we begin, I want to remind everyone that this discussion falls under the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. A discussion of the company’s current risks and uncertainties is included in the Safe Harbor statement in today’s press release and is presented in greater detail in our filings with the SEC. Now I will turn the call over to Tony.

Tony Jensen

Management

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. The company reported a 7% increase in year-over-year revenue which was largely driven by increased production at three of our principal properties, Andacollo, Holt and Wolverine. Specifically a 10.5% volume increase in production for the entire portfolio of 36 revenue generating assets (inaudible) offset the 3.5% lower metal prices compared to the prior year quarter. While operating cash flow remained strong net income for the period was impacted by two items. First, a non-cash loss we recognized related to the securities we own. And second a higher income tax expense related to the filing of our June 30, 2012 income tax return. Stefan will discuss both of those items in more detail. For the quarter, 51% of our revenue came from our three producing cornerstone properties, Andacollo, Voisey's Bay and Peñasquito. Andacollo was again our largest revenue source contributing approximately $23 million followed by Voisey's Bay at $9 million and Peñasquito at $5.12 million. Compared with the prior year period, we saw production increases at six of our 12 principal properties most notably at Andacollo. Our percent of revenue from precious metals was 79% of which 73% was from gold. Approximately 32% of our revenue was derived from Chile, 26% from Canada followed by Mexico and the United States each contributing 17% and 15% respectively.

Stefan Wenger

Management

Thank you Tony and good morning everyone. For the quarter, we had revenue of $74.2 million, an increase of 7% over revenue of $69.6 million in the comparable period. Cash flow from operations increased by 43% to $68.1 million or $1.05 per share compared with $47.5 million or $0.81 per share for the third quarter of fiscal 2012. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $66.1 million or 89% of revenues compared with $63.6 million or 91% of revenues for the prior year period. Net income was $6.5 million or $0.10 per share compared with $26 million or $0.44 per share for the third period of fiscal 2012. Our net income was impacted negatively by a couple of unique items. First, due to the prolonged decline in the value of our investment in Seabridge common stock, we determine that a writedown of this investment was necessary during the period. As this writedown was for accounting purposes only, there was not a related tax benefit on the loss and as a result the impact on net income was $12.1 million or $0.17 per share. Excluding the loss on Seabridge shares, net income would have been $17.4 million or $0.27 per basic share. Second, net income for the quarter was also impacted by higher income tax charges of approximately $7 million. A majority of which resulted from a reduction in foreign tax credit benefit recorded in the current quarter, related to the filing of our June 30, 2012 income tax return. While this amount relates to taxes for the year-ended June 30, 2012, it was recorded as an additional expense in the current quarter. This additional tax expense resulted in an impact to net income of $0.10 per share for the quarter. Excluding these two item, net income for the quarter would have been $24.3 million…

Bill Zisch

Management

Thank you, Stefan, and good morning everyone. Once again, to provide you with the current view of our operational performance, I will compare the March 2013 quarterly results with the December 2012 quarterly results rather than the prior year comparables. With many of our principal properties remaining at steady state operating levels and somewhat typical soft production in the first calendar quarter of a new year, (inaudible) which consists of 36 producing properties performed as expected. Overall, production was down about 3% from the December quarter, well within the expected variation of ongoing operations particularly in the first calendar quarter of the year. At Andacollo, gold sales were inline with expectations and exceeded the preceding quarter by 5% totaling 19,000 ounces to our account as higher gold grade material was mined as planned and sales exceeded production by about 600 ounces more than in the preceding quarter. Given the full year guidance of 63,000 ounces for calendar 2013, we anticipate future production will likely reflect transition to lower grade. In March at Voisey’s Bay, the government of Newfoundland and Labrador announced amendments to their Voisey’s Bay development agreement including a commitment from Vale to pursue underground mining to extend the mine life. The underground mine is expected to start producing ore in 2019. Also included in the new agreement is Vale’s right to continue processing Voisey’s Bay ore at the Sudbury smelter for up to another three years as construction and start-up of the Long Harbour facility in Newfoundland is completed. The hydromet facility is expected to start operations in the second half of 2013 initially using imported nickel concentrate as Voisey's Bay concentrate being introduced gradually in 2014. Treatment of copper concentrates will continue in [Europe], so the seasonal shipping schedule that impacts the timing of concentrate sales is…

Tony Jensen

Management

Thanks for the update Bill. I would now like to bring you up-to-date on two of our key development properties. At Pascua-Lama through March about 70% of the structural steel is erected for the process plant facility; 65% of concrete was (inaudible) Port, 55% of earthworks was completed and the ore [convinced] on was approximately 80% complete. AuRico spent approximately $4.8 billion on the project as of the end of March. During the fourth quarter of calendar 2012, [AuRico] reported that pre-striping activities in Chile were halted and addressed increased dust in the open pit area and that the project has since strengthened dust mitigation control measures. In addition, regulatory restrictions have also been placed on the project due to the need to repair and improve certain aspects of the water management system in Chile. In April, a Chilean court granted a request for a preliminary injunction to suspend construction activities on the Chilean side of the project. The corresponding action alleges non-compliance with the environmental requirements of the projects environmental approval. Construction activities in Argentina were the majority of Pascua-Lama critical infrastructure is located including the process and tailing [search] facilities were not affected. Given these pending regulatory and legal issues, Barrick stated on the April 24 that they were not or were unable to fully assess the impact of the capital budget, operating cost and schedule of the project. We acquired our Pascua-Lama Royalty interest through several transactions, because these were existing royalty interest, we had to honor the agreement terms and I should note that we do not have any redemption rates. Production does not occur by a specific date. Our carrying value for book purposes is about $400 million or $600 per net royalty ounce. If Barrick were to delay the project, our investment would remain…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from John Tumazos [Very Independent Research].

John Tumazos - Very Independent Research

Analyst

Thank you. My question concerns the Mt. Milligan legal framework where Royal Gold is senior. Could you review the seniority rights just in case metals prices are low, copper’s $1 or $2 and you end up exercising your rights place?

Tony Jensen

Management

John, this is Tony. I am going to turn that question to Bill Heissenbuttel.

Bill Heissenbuttel

Analyst

John, our position at Mt. Milligan with respect to the assets at Mt. Milligan is we do have a secured position there. That security is subordinated to the senior notes that they issued. I think it was late last year, mid last year. That is the only thing that we are coordinated to and we would be senior to any unsecured or subordinated obligations at the Terrane Metals, at the operating company level and we would be structurally senior to any unsecured obligations that might be supported by a guarantee in the sub at the parent level.

John Tumazos - Very Independent Research

Analyst

How much of the notes that are expected?

Tony Jensen

Management

John, just one second please, I think we've also limited the amount of security debt of $350 million.

John Tumazos - Very Independent Research

Analyst

So $350 million is the amount of debt that's senior to you.

Tony Jensen

Management

Yes and that's the maximum that they can put in front of us.

John Tumazos - Very Independent Research

Analyst

Continuing I recall Newmont sold the Holt-McDermott mine to St. Andrew Goldfields a few years ago, but somehow the Canadian court ruled that Newmont had to pay the royalty and not the Canadian company. Do you think it would be good if you move your domicile to Canada just to make sure that courts are not spurious?

Tony Jensen

Management

John, I don't think that issue would drive our decision of domiciling the company so that alone I don't think would sway our interest.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Garrett Nelson from BB&T Capital Markets. Your line is open. Garrett Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets: Thank you. On the royalty revenue from all other properties are the ones you don’t specifically breakout. Can we basically just assume royalty revenue will be lower in subsequent quarters than the 12.6 million you just reported if gold and other metals prices are lower. Obviously, there are a lot of properties in that number, I am just trying to better understand how to model revenue on that line?

Tony Jensen

Management

Yeah, Garrett, I think that’s a safe assumption overall. That is probably not going to change very much. We’ve got a few that are coming in like Gold Hill and a few that are going out like (inaudible), but overall I think we're going to have a reasonable amount of contribution there. So they would be impacted by the price of gold. The other thing that we would talk to there is the sliding scale. Royalty nature is often embedded in the Royalty agreements. I don't think there was any in there saved, the Holt one that would be really impacted on a leverage basis to the gold price. So long answer to your question, but yes, that's good. Garrett Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. And then I was wondering if you could just comment on the current market environment for Royalty deal flow. Obviously, your equity issue and class forward $90 was very well timed. You are sitting on substantial cash and liquidity. You are winding down your final payments to Thompson Creek, but with the distress a lot of gold miners are experiencing with the recent price drop, is the phone ringing more than say it was six months ago?

Tony Jensen

Management

Garrett, there is no question that truly is ringing more than six months ago. In fact, weekly we're getting in new solicitations, but we're going to continue to remain patient and measured and disciplined, and we very much want to align with properties that we think have very good opportunities to realize revenues even in then price markets see the lower than what we are today. So we want to make sure that we have a lot of confidence in the assets that we invest in. So we are not feeling compelled to deploy the cash we have on hand. We think we are wonderfully positioned to take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves. Garrett Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay, thanks. And I guess lots of weight for next Wednesday for a Mt. Milligan update. Congratulations to both Karen and Karlie.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Peterson from MLV & Company. Your line is open. Michael Peterson - MLV & Company: My first question today -- hi, my first question regards your 2012 reserve report, where there any meaningful positive or negative revisions within the portfolio that you’d care to discuss?

Tony Jensen

Management

Bill Zisch, do you have anything there?

Bill Zisch

Management

Mike, this is Bill. There is no major moves. The most of the change in that reserve portfolio was really just a depletion of what the existing reserves were and internally to our growth reserves, the other thing was last year versus this year we increased the amount of Mt. Milligan, but there was no major moves, the prices that people used are reasonably similar to prior years and then there has been some depletion. Michael Peterson - MLV & Company: Okay. That’s helpful. I appreciate that. Tony, perhaps you can give us a little perspective, I appreciate the Bill’s comments a few minutes ago with regard to M&A deal flow. Could you give us some perspective on your outlook in terms of the gold macro, certainly things have changed a lot in the last quarter and that might create different windows of opportunity depending on your perspective, to the degree you are prepared to share that with us today?

Tony Jensen

Management

Well, this is an environment, we think that there are going to be some wonderful opportunities and that’s exactly why we took opportunity last year to restructure our balance sheet. We took three or four measured events last year to make sure that we were going into a period where we perceived to be weakness, but we wanted to have a very strong balance sheet, and we do have that now. So I think that this is an opportunity of acquiring assets and the point in time there is not allowed a momentum in the gold sector, people with a good balance sheet and take advantage of opportunities when they come up. So I think Michael we are in a very good position to continue to grow the company. And again as I mentioned just a moment ago, we are going to do that on quality assets that we feel of quality and in on a disciplined basis. Michael Peterson - MLV & Company: That's helpful. And I share your perspective, I think there is a real opportunity here for a company positioned as you are. If I can do a follow up there with regard to commodity strip pricing specifically gold but the other commodities as well. When you look at the current curve, does that look an opportunity for value, are you more bullish or bearish, I mean we have seen a lot of change both in the level as well as the slope of your curve recently, does that change your outlook at all or is that something you are comfortable commenting on?

Tony Jensen

Management

Well, maybe just a few real broad paintbrush strokes there. We don't see anything different in the macro economic environment worldwide that will change our focus on being supportive to gold price. And so we are still in this business and we are in to continue to grow our business, but having the opportunity to transact when the market is somewhat out of momentum is a very good time, our most difficult times to acquire royalty interest are when the gold price is moving up steeply and the expectations of the price tomorrow are so much greater than they are today. It’s hard for us to transact in that environment. So beyond this (inaudible) we do look at this as an interesting time for us.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Cosmos Chiu from CIBC.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC

Analyst

Maybe first off on Mount Milligan, I appreciate the fact that it’s likely going to be coming into production in Q3 and the commercial production in Q4, but I also understand that in terms of the actual payment to Royal Gold there could be a lag in terms of depending on the shipment of the actual concentrate itself. Maybe Bill can you walk us through in terms of when you would be expecting Royal Gold to kind of receive the first royalty payment.

Bill Zisch

Management

Yeah, it is a bit complicated as you say and dependent upon an awful lot of assumptions, but typically we are going to see that concentrate lag about three months, but we get paid when that is produced at Mount Milligan. So we will be looking at the assumptions we have as far as the timing and the clearing of those sales. Really I can't go into all the details right now, but would be happy to kind of consider addressing that on the future calls.

Tony Jensen

Management

Yeah Cosmos if I could just add to that, what we would expect is that they would start producing in the third quarter of this year and then they start building some concentrate volume up and it will take a while for them to build a sufficient concentrate after digging the [shift]. And there might be 10,000 or 20,000 or 30,000 tons or so before they put it on the seeds. But we have a structure where we get paid on the provisional payments initially and then that kind of rats back where we get paid on the final settlement. So it’s a bit of our complicated thing, but I think you will see us starting to get revenue flow in the first quarter of next year, and then we will give more guidance as to how that goes. But it is important for the market to understand how we ship from provisional payments to final settlements and the percentages we get with those. So we look forward to guiding you a little closer on that as we get closer to production.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC

Analyst

And then maybe shifting gears a little bit in terms of Andacollo. I know in the past you know (inaudible) had talked about maybe considering a 20% increase in terms of capacity, any kind of update on that front at this point in time.

Bill Zisch

Management

What they continue to look at is they are looking at debottlenecking and optimizing what they currently have. They made some reference in the past, some expansion that I think they have kind of thought. But they are going to take a look at what they have installed, and they are really kind of operating the plant as they have installed it and added about 20,000 ton a day additional crushing and they are going to now step back and see whether or not they can debottleneck that to increase in throughput. When they get done with that optimization, I think they step back and say okay what's the next step changing capital they might consider what makes the most economic sense, it maybe an incremental increase, it maybe another addition of some sort. But they are going to probably over the next year or so be kind of optimizing debottlenecking at the same time evaluating what the longer term expansions may consider from an economic standpoint.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC

Analyst

And maybe looking at the others category, I think two assets that have been kind of embedded starting a year and half, two years ago, in your other category would be two African assets Inata and Taparko. But when I was looking, once again I guess I have neglected those two assets as well, but looking at the guidance that was given out for calendar 2013 today, I was doing the calculation behind it. To me it seems like it will still be a pretty significant contributor in 2013. Am I incorrect on that front? I am just wondering what the actual performance was in calendar 2012 for those two assets and how I should look at it in 2013?

Tony Jensen

Management

Cosmos I don’t know, but Bill are you prepared to answer that. I don’t have that detail in front of me.

Bill Zisch

Management

Yeah, from a Taparko standpoint, Cosmos we would expect them to be producing about as they did this year and continuing it about that rate. Don’t know if any real plans for much expansion, but they have been performing steadily. Inata on the other hand, when that was picked up the asset, prior to that, there had been some discussion about an expansion up to I believe it was about 165,000 ounces a year. Subsequent to that (inaudible) come in and said they are not necessarily going to be looking at that kind of expansion. So the guidance that you see now reflects their current view. I don't know whether that means there is any other opportunities as they get more comfortable with it but that’s been kind of the state of Inata.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC

Analyst

Okay. Because when I work out the numbers, multiply out the guidance and some kind of gold price assumption, I am still getting above $4 million to $5 million in annual revenue from each one. Am I overstating it or -?

Tony Jensen

Management

I wouldn't be surprised if it was in that range.

Stefan Wenger

Management

Perhaps reasonable. Cosmos this is Stefan.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC

Analyst

Okay. Great that’s all I have. And thanks again Karen for the help all these years.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Patrick Chidley from HSBC. Your line is open.

Patrick Chidley - HSBC

Analyst

Just a quick question on the Mt. Milligan, just coming back to the (inaudible), what’s your understanding about what sort of prices that mine could take in terms of copper and gold prices on the downside before the operator starts to sort of gets squeeze a little bit in terms of its own cash flow?

Tony Jensen

Management

Patrick, Tony here. We took a very good look at that when we made our last tranche of investment decision; I think that was in last summer or obviously last summer. We want to make sure that if we put more royalty financing or streaming into the project that after our investment was considered that I would still be a very attractive cash cost producer. If we use Thompson Creek’s numbers and subtract out the amount of gold credit that would come from to us, we still think that’s somewhere in the low second quartile, right in the -- higher second quartile, lower third quartile type of worldwide cash cost of production on copper. So once this is up and running, I think we have a project that’s pretty attractive.

Patrick Chidley - HSBC

Analyst

And so where is tonnage, just in terms of the copper world, I am not sure where that could be just $2?

Tony Jensen

Management

No, it's less than that. (Inaudible) the break gives between the second and third quartile of (inaudible) copper production. What Patrick let me guide you a little bit differently, you can look in our recent public presentations and we do have a slide in there Mt. Milligan that shows that detail.

Patrick Chidley - HSBC

Analyst

And second question then would be just you mentioned on press release about going underground at Voisey's Bay and in terms of that part being part of the new agreement but the government would draw, any idea what timing that might be and what the impact might be for you guys?

Tony Jensen

Management

As you can imagine, Voisey's Valley has a big world where they don't necessarily report all of the detail on each [shop reference]. We have actually taken a lot of our guidance out of the joint press release that was held between Valley and the government and the government put out a very makes press release that describes a lot of these issues. And according to them, I think they are looking at starting the underground development and putting them in production in 2019.

Patrick Chidley - HSBC

Analyst

Production 2019, okay. And then just a quick question on Andacollo, you mentioned high grade is the current sort of last quarter grade going to be sort of what they are expecting progress for the year?

Tony Jensen

Management

No, I think that you are going to see probably lower rate going forward. If you were to take a look at their annual guidance of 63000 ounces, then consider what they produced in the first quarter, they had a very, very strong first quarter. Now some of that was due to additional sales over production, but we think that, if you go on those numbers Patrick, we would expect the softer second half for the year than what we saw in the first quarter.

Patrick Chidley - HSBC

Analyst

Okay, great. And just final question, just coming back to your for the large cash pile and the myriad of opportunities in front of you. What sort of projects are you really looking for -- you know are you going to be looking to do any different in terms of the strategy that you've sort of been following or are you looking in based on those companies again with gold flow or are there sort of a different set of opportunities that have come up just because of what we are seeing in the developed markets perhaps on the earlier stage in terms of exploration?

Tony Jensen

Management

I think you should continue to look at us doing what we've done in the past and still over the center of the play kind of thing, but where we are today in the gold environment, we are seeing a lot of earlier opportunities than what we've seen in the past because those folks don't have the equity that they can turn to. And to the extent we do get involved in some of those earlier opportunities, we won't be putting or committing large amounts of money there. It might be tens of millions of dollars, but we always want to look for an opportunity to invest a lot more significant dollars later on once the project is derisked. So we might take some in this environment if you asked what a change in your business strategy be or supplement to your business strategy, I would say that perhaps we would look to get involved with attractive opportunities at a low dollar value but always have an option to invest more money at a later point in time.

Patrick Chidley - HSBC

Analyst

Okay. So [sort of option] to held them, get the thing actually going instead of just taking royalty now and expecting the market to get the project going.

Tony Jensen

Management

Exactly but always remember if we do get associated with the project, we want to be associated for the long term and so we look for a royalty position option into the future as well.

Operator

Operator

I would like to now turn the call back over to the presenters for closing remarks.

Tony Jensen

Management

Well, thank you very much for your interest in Royal Gold. We very much look forward to updating you in the coming months on all the activities that the company is doing. We appreciate your interest and your continued support of our company. Bye for now.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) Q3 2013 Earnings Date, Estimates & Preview | Earnings Labs