Earnings Labs

Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 9, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

00:01 Ladies and gentlemen thank you for standing by and welcome to the Reynolds Consumer Products Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. Please be advised that today’s call is being recorded. 00:32 And I like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mark Swartzberg. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Mark Swartzberg

Management

00:42 Good morning and thank you for joining us on Reynolds Consumer Products' fourth quarter and fiscal year 2021 earnings conference call. On the call today are Lance Mitchell, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Graham, Chief Financial Officer. 00:55 For our agenda today, Lance will focus on market conditions, our fundamentals, and our 2022 priorities. And Michael will review our quarter and outlook. Together, our remarks will be approximately 20 minutes, then we will open it up for your questions. 01:11 During the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are based on management's current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and outcomes to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements. 01:28 Please refer to Reynolds Consumer Products' annual report on Form 10-K and other reports filed from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission and its press release issued this morning for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today. 01:48 Please note management's remarks today will focus on non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP measures to non-GAAP financial measures is available in the earnings release posted under the Investor Relations heading on our website at reynoldsconsumerproducts.com. 02:05 The company has also prepared a few presentation slides and additional supplemental financial information, which are posted on Reynolds website under the Investor Relations heading. This call is being webcast and an archive of it will also be available on the website. 02:20 While we would like to answer all of your questions during the question-and-answer session, in the interest of time, we ask that you ask one question and a follow-up and rejoin the queue if you have additional questions. 02:32 And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Lance Mitchell.

Lance Mitchell

Management

02:36 Thanks, Mark. We delivered another year of record net revenues finishing the year with continued strong demand and in line with our expectations in-spite of continued supply chain challenges. Thanks to the resilience and hard work of our team, we grew revenue 9% on top of last year’s record net revenues. We grew volume another 1% on top of 2020’s 9% increase. 03:04 We grew market shares for most of our products. We grew both of our billion dollar brands. The Hefty brand grew and exceeded 1.3 billion in retail sales in 2021 and Reynolds brand continued to grow strongly up to $1 billion in retail sales achieved in 2020. 03:26 We anticipated and fulfilled strong holiday related demand and we mitigated ongoing supply chain challenges, including production disruptions at third-party suppliers, import delays, and significant staffing and logistics related headwinds. 03:44 We also accelerated revolution cost savings in 2021 and began increasing our emphasis on revolution growth and cost savings initiatives, strengthening our earnings potential for 2022 and the long-term. 04:01 Michael will walk through the details of our 2022 outlook, but let me set the stage. Our four rounds of price increases since late 2020 have been implemented as planned. Inflation remains a watch-out, but maybe moderating and we anticipate profit growth this year. We are forecasting that to commence with our second quarter results. 04:28 Now, let's turn to the top line. We expect consumer demand, price increases, innovation, and expanded manufacturing and supply chain capabilities to remain our main drivers of growth. First, consumer demand. 04:46 Household use of our products remained elevated versus pre-pandemic levels. According to our latest Harris Poll, which we conducted again in December it is our ninth since we started – the start of the pandemic. Everyday use of foil…

Michael Graham

Management

09:52 Thanks, Lance, and good morning, everyone. I will briefly review our fiscal year 2021 and fourth quarter results then turn to our outlook. For the fiscal year 2021, net revenues were 3.6 billion, up 9% over a record 3.3 billion net revenues we had in 2020. 10:11 Growth was driven by pricing to offset higher material costs, continued strong demand, and continued benefits from innovation. Adjusted EBITDA was $601 million, down 16% versus last year as price increases lagged higher material labor and logistics cost, partially offset by higher volume and lower SG&A. Adjusted earnings per share for the year was $1.59. 10:36 Now turning to the quarter, revenues in the fourth quarter were $1 billion, an increase of 15% over the prior year record net revenues of $888 million. Growth was driven by pricing to offset increased material costs, continued strong demand and continued benefits from innovation, adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $181 million, compared to $198 million in the prior year. 11:01 The decrease was primarily due to price increases lagging in higher material, labor, and logistics cost, and is partially offset by higher volume and lower SG&A. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $0.51. 11:15 Turning to our segment results for the quarter, there were three main drivers of our year-on-year earnings decline. Price increases which lag commodity cost increases, higher labor and logistics costs and continued staffing and logistics related challenges. Partially offsetting these factors was continued strong demand for our categories and product portfolio. 11:37 In Reynolds cooking and baking, net revenues increased 23%, driven by higher pricing and a 9% volume increase. Adjusted EBITDA rose as higher volume and lower SG&A more than offset material cost increases in excess of price increases. 11:53 Volume grew 9% driven by strength…

Mark Swartzberg

Management

18:20 Thanks, Michael. As I turn it over to the operator for the question, I'd like to remind you that we ask that you ask one question and a follow-up. And then rejoin the queue if you have additional questions. Operator?

Operator

Operator

18:32 Thank you very much. Our first question comes from the line of Rob Ottenstein from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Rob Ottenstein

Analyst

19:20 much and well done guys. So, just couple of points of clarification from your comments. You mentioned that demand patterns remain very strong and elevated and based on your surveys, you expect them to continue. Can you help us kind of think through what is driving that given that you obviously were a big benefit from people quarantining from work from home and now as mobility increases, people start going back out to restaurants more, start going back to the office, even if it's part time how should we think about the impact to that on demand, and how you see that playing out?

Lance Mitchell

Management

20:12 Robert, thank you. We have seen consumer demand shift fundamentally. We talked about that during the course of the pandemic that our consumer research said that consumers fundamental habits of spending more time at home, spending more time cooking and baking and utilizing our products more frequently was a fundamental shift and we've seen that continue. 20:36 What we've seen is, after the pandemic, people are staying at home more frequently, part time at the office, going to restaurants perhaps more frequently, but still changing their habits and behaviors from pre-pandemic levels. So, demand for our products continue to be very strong. 20:59 They continued strong through the fourth quarter. We're seeing the same through the beginning of this year.

Rob Ottenstein

Analyst

21:07 Terrific. And then, just a clarification on the commodity outlook, my standing, that Polyethylene inventories in the U.S. are very high. So, I'm assuming that's kind of unguards your view on resins, can you maybe talk about – a little bit about what's going on in aluminum and remind us, you know – what percentage of your business is a straight push through, cost push through, how much hedging you do and any other kind of factors around that in terms of understanding what the commodity outlook looks like for you for the next 6 months to 12 months?

Lance Mitchell

Management

21:52 Yes, as you know, predicting commodity prices is very challenging and something we've faced during the course of last year, but what we have seen now, as you mentioned as resin has stabilized. The two main resins that we use are polyethylene and polystyrene, and they have plateaued at a higher level during the pandemic, but we do see that they are moderating. 22:21 Aluminum was moderating in Q4 and took a spike up in Q1 and it stayed elevated . So, we have factored that into our guide and are obviously looking for other mitigation against that, but is part of our plan for 2022. We do expect aluminum to moderate and come down in the back half of the year. 22:46 The commodity contractual pass through is approximately 25% of our business overall. So, 75% of our business we price to the market. And – what was the last question? I forgot the… oh, hedging. 23:05 So, we don't hedge any of our raw materials. We do have a physical hedge with aluminum that we've talked about previously. We have approximately between work in process, finished goods and raw materials, we have about six months of supply in the pipeline. So, therefore, we have a physical hedge of aluminum, but none of our raw materials are financially hedged.

Rob Ottenstein

Analyst

23:33 Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

23:39 Thank you. We have next question from the line of Jason English from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Jason English

Analyst

23:47 Hey, good morning folks.

Lance Mitchell

Management

23:50 Good morning.

Jason English

Analyst

23:51 Good morning. Couple of quick questions. First, you pulled back on a lot of SG&A last year in the face of all the commodity pressure. In your outlook, how much reinvestment are you assuming?

Michael Graham

Management

24:07 Yes. So, in our outlook, we are clearly investing further in our advertising. We’ve reduced our investment last year as you stated, primarily due to service levels. But in 2022, we are going to plan to turn to more of our historical levels of advertising spend. So that will be up sizable.

Jason English

Analyst

24:29 Okay. And you're clearly putting a lot of pricing in the market, and we’ve seen your P&L, we're seeing a lot more price come to your P&L then we are HPC peers, although I know the category makes it different from one to the other. What do you see in terms of price gaps out there? Is there any reason to be concerned that price gaps may be coming on sustainably high? That would be relative to branded competitors or private label?

Lance Mitchell

Management

24:54 The price gaps have narrowed from what they were previously and some of the categories, but it varies across different categories. Private label foil, for example has also increased along with our branded foil. So, you've got to look at it category by category. But in total, these total categories have increased in price during the course of 2021 and going into 2022.

Jason English

Analyst

25:23 Okay. Thanks. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

25:29 Thank you. We have a next question from the line of Lauren Lieberman from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Lauren Lieberman

Analyst

25:37 Great, Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about the logistics and staffing issues that you talked a little bit about. So, curious, I guess, as you kind of, as you stand even today, where the things stand on that front? I know you mentioned that things are getting better, but any kind of further color you could offer would be great, be it pandemic omicron related or otherwise? And then anything you could offer on fill rates in stock levels during this period and how that may or may not be improving at this point?

Lance Mitchell

Management

26:15 Thank you, Lauren. Yes. Staffing is a geographical challenge, right. Some plans and areas are more challenged than others. Particularly in Q4 and Q1, it was omicron related, as well as just the general labor availability. We called-out specifically in two segments with Presto and our Hefty Waste & Storage segments, those plans and those particular geographies were the most effected in Q4. 26:47 We are seeing improvement in January with omicron, there was continued challenges, but with the cases reducing and with our changes to our wage rate structures, we've seen improvement in overall staffing levels across our manufacturing locations. So, we're optimistic that we're improving this. We from a standpoint, we did take a backward step in Q4 in some of our product lines. And those are starting to improve in Q1, but it continues to be a challenge from an in-stock standpoint. 27:28 We do measure in-stocks in our categories across all of our retail partners and most of our products were doing better or as good as our competitors of the categories. So, it's a challenge across all of the categories. We do see it improving throughout the year, but staffing and logistics continues to be a challenge.

Lauren Lieberman

Analyst

27:52 Okay. And so, that's really helpful. And so with it being comparable to others in your category, you're not seeing any impact on market share or shelf sets or those sorts of things that we should think about if there be sort of more lasting effect?

Lance Mitchell

Management

28:08 No, distribution has been fairly stable across our categories throughout 2021. So, it has not been an impact to share either, which I'm sure you watched the share across all of our products and track channels that you can see has been improving or stable to cutting on the category.

Lauren Lieberman

Analyst

28:29 Terrific. Thanks. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

28:34 Thank you. We have next question from the line of Andrea Teixeira from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Andrea Teixeira

Analyst

28:44 Thank you. Good morning. So, I wanted to follow-up on the cost impacts, but beyond commodities, but also transportation labor, are you, Michael assuming that you stay as current or you're assuming some improvement as we go? And just a follow-up on what you said, Lance on the private label? Are you seeing your retail partners asking for more, probably label vis-a-vis your branded, just to improve affordability or we are not there yet? And hopefully we will not be. Thank you.

Michael Graham

Management

29:22 Yeah. The transportation front, we are anticipating that we'll see that those costs continue to increase. We’ve baked that into our guide appropriately. We're taking the appropriate actions, whether it be through pricing or cost reductions initiatives to offset that. So, we think we’ve baked all that into overall guide to - and we have coverage around that relative to the numbers we presented.

Lance Mitchell

Management

29:47 And from a branded private label standpoint, things remain stable there. We have not seen any fundamental changes in our categories between brand and private label. If anything the brands have performed us more strongly than private label in these categories through the pandemic and that's not shifted and seen any change from our retail partners.

Andrea Teixeira

Analyst

30:11 Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

30:17 Thank you. We have next question from the line of Peter Grom from UBS. Please go ahead.

Peter Grom

Analyst

30:24 Hey, good morning, everyone. So, I just wanted to ask about the future of gross margins. When you think about gross margin and compression. Like, have you given any thoughts to whether some of these costs could prove to be more structural rather than cyclical? And I guess like how does that inform your view of restoring gross margin kind of back to the mid-to-high 20s over time? I recognize you probably want to provide an outlook beyond this year, but how should we think about a potential timeline in terms of getting back to those margin levels?

Lance Mitchell

Management

30:55 Yes. So as we think about our gross profit dollars, we see us getting back to those previous levels in 2023. And we think we’ve got the plans in place to initiate that and it's kind of – it's going to take the time, but we're pretty structured very well to get recover back to those over pre-pandemic levels.

Peter Grom

Analyst

31:23 Okay. Thanks for that. And then I guess, just Michael following up on the phasing of top line growth for the year, I just – when you look at 10% to 14% growth for 1Q, I realize more pricing is going to build, but I think you said, using rates of growth from here, but can you just help us understand how much using we should really be modeling post 1Q, because it seems that it would be harder to hit the high-end of the full-year range assuming sales moderate from 1Q, which I think at the mid-point is 12%?

Michael Graham

Management

31:52 So, I think in my remarks, I kind of stated that we expect it after Q1 that our growth rates will rise. And then over the period of the year it would kind of decline a bit slowly as we reach or approach Q4.

Peter Grom

Analyst

32:10 Okay, got it. So, the top line will accelerate from the 10% to 14%, and then accelerate in the back half? Okay, sorry.

Michael Graham

Management

32:18 You have to think about standpoint, our cost increased over the course of the year and our pricing took place over the course of the year. So, as we lap those additional pricing, you will see that decline a bit.

Peter Grom

Analyst

32:34 Okay. Thanks for that.

Operator

Operator

32:39 Thank you. We have next question from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Kaumil Gajrawala

Analyst

32:49 Thank you. By the way, fantastic pronunciation. Operator, I don't get that frequently. If you guys don't mind talking a bit about regulation cost savings, where you were last year and perhaps what you're incorporating in your guide for 2022?

Michael Graham

Management

33:07 Yes, Appreciate that question. We delivered a little more than two points of margin improvement through revolutions cost savings in 2021. And we set out to do that, and then we actually beat that. We're planning deliver somewhere in the range this year. So, we feel pretty good about our position on continue to drive revolution savings.

Kaumil Gajrawala

Analyst

33:31 Okay, great. And as it relates to inflations impact on the consumer, it sounds much as from yourselves, but from many others that the price elasticity just isn't where – it is lower than what might have been expected. What are you looking at to gauge if that's going to continue to be true or if at some point we reach an area where the consumer doesn't need start to respond?

Lance Mitchell

Management

33:58 Well, we're using two tools to analyze that. The first is some consumer research, which we directly reach out to consumers that are buying in our categories to determine their purchase behavior. And the second is, to just moderate the overall consumer takeaway and just monitor that very closely. 34:20 The consumption patterns continue to be very strong and consumer behavior is what their telling us is that they're continuing to use our products more frequently despite the higher prices.

Kaumil Gajrawala

Analyst

34:34 Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

34:38 Thank you. We have next question from the line of Erik Rasmussen from Stifel. Please go ahead.

Mark Astrachan

Analyst

34:50 I don't know if that's me or not. Can you guys hear me, it’s Mark Astrachan here?

Lance Mitchell

Management

34:54 Hey, Mark, it shows up as Erik on the queue for some reason. We recognize your voice. Good morning.

Mark Astrachan

Analyst

35:02 I don't know what to say. I think I'll talk to my boss after this call and make sure he's not trying to send me a message. Well. So, I guess two questions, one, on just aluminum broadly, so aluminum is up another 3% today, not that you guys didn't already know that, but kind of current level is that’s what based into what you referred to as stable. So, from here and then, I guess kind of elaborating on previous comments, Michael, it sounds like then, resin maybe pricing comes down so on products that have that as a component, is that how we should think about it? If aluminum stays where it is, should we be thinking about the Reynolds oil business continue to have pricing go up and is that a good way to think about it? And then obviously how to think about the volume impacts since those actually remain fairly stable?

Michael Graham

Management

35:58 So, let's start out with the aluminum question, as it relates to current levels. So, our assumptions in our overall guide and our plan is that aluminum will be stable at current levels through the rest of the year. And so, our overall planning and recovery actions are all around that assumption.

Mark Astrachan

Analyst

36:17 Okay. And from here then, are you anticipating more price or is it a fair way to think about it, maybe that business gets more price versus some of the other where you have lower anticipated resin costs is that reasonable?

Lance Mitchell

Management

36:32 We are planning some targeted resin or aluminum increases because of where the prices are at now. Not necessarily across the board, but on some specific products to offset that, as well as some other cost reduction initiatives. 36:52 From a resin standpoint, yes, it's moderated and we've recovered the resin prices if all of our segments accept Hefty branded waste bags.

Mark Astrachan

Analyst

37:06 Right. Got it. Okay. And then Michael, on free cash flow conversion, I guess broader strokes, a, how should we be thinking about that in 2022? How should we be thinking about debt reduction priorities, you know the net debt levels are actually a little bit above where you would forecast 12 months ago at this time? And I say that in-part with the commentary and the release that continues to be that you'll pursue strategic bolt-on acquisition. So, let's take capacity and how should we be thinking about that and kind of what should we be thinking about from that standpoint in terms of what you're targeting?

Michael Graham

Management

37:42 So, our capital allocation strategy is pretty much unchanged. We still want to get to 2.5x. And we're pursuing that. Obviously, last year had its challenges. And as a result of that, we decided to invest more heavily in capital to support our growth and automation projects. And we think that's going to pay off in the long run. 38:07 So, overall, I mean, our strategy is the same, we're going to continue to drive that down and that will be a focus area for us going forward. So, the only thing I would say is that, as you think about our capital structure, we'll look opportunistically to refinance long-term debt, you know that makes sense for us. And that would be the only potential change as interest rates fluctuate.

Mark Astrachan

Analyst

38:34 Got it. Okay, Erik, signing off here. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

38:41 Thank you. We have next question from the line of Wendy Nicholson of Citi. Please go ahead.

Wendy Nicholson

Analyst

38:48 Hi. I wanted to go back to the line of questioning, kind of around the consumer and the lack of price sensitivity and just the increase in demand for your products. I mean, I think you said at the very beginning there's been a five-fold increase. I mean, that's just huge in terms of incremental usage, if you will. And so my question is, as you think about the business, kind of a little bit longer term, assuming these rates of usage and the lack of price sensitivity continues, does it give you kind of more license to think creatively about innovation, can you say, oh, we can add more value to these categories or products because people certainly aren't showing the price dealing that they used do at a price resistance? And also are you seeing any reaction from the retailers? 39:43 I mean, if the retailers are seeing sustained, higher velocity, in your aisle, if you will, are they giving the category more shelf space, more end-caps, all that kind of stuff? I'm just wondering if we really are seeing sustained higher demand, how does the category change maybe sort of from a bigger picture perspective? Thanks so much.

Michael Graham

Management

40:06 Thanks, Wendy. From an innovation standpoint, certainly, and I’ve said in our prepared remarks, this has provided us the environment to really step-up innovation across these product lines. So, we've got a lot of innovations going in 2021. Our pipeline is very strong because of the change in consumer behavior. And we're looking to introduce a lot more products as we go through 2022 and beyond. 40:35 So, innovation has been a significant beneficiary from the pandemic and the change in consumer behavior. From an overall category standpoint and merchandising, we've restrained that a bit because of supply capabilities. As Mike mentioned in his prepared remarks, we are returning to promotional activity. 40:58 So, we did not have a lot of end caps and promotions in the last two years because we significantly reduced our promotional activity because of lack of supply in case fill. As that's improving, we are seeing significant opportunities for secondary placements and improve distribution. And that is factored in also to our plans for 2022 and beyond.

Wendy Nicholson

Analyst

41:25 Got it. That's helpful. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

41:29 Thank you. We have next question from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Jason English

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

41:36 Hey, folks. Thanks for slot me in for a follow-up. I appreciate it. So, thanks earlier for your comments on private label. And while I appreciate its status quo at the moment, many investors, well and frankly as well as myself, believe that there's a reasonable chance that private label share could begin to bounce back when spending power through lower income consumer, begins to squeeze a bit lower throughout the course of the year. Assuming this played out in your categories and knowing that you play both sides, how do you think this would impact your P&L from a revenue margin bottom line perspective?

Lance Mitchell

Management

42:10 Well, I'll talk about the trends and I'll let Michael speculate about the P&L. The trends for the long-term in these categories because they are already highly penetrated between brand and private label, have been stable. We saw some bounce towards brands in 2020 and 2021, but not a significant shift like we've seen in some other household categories. 42:38 So, our expectation and forecast is it’s going to continue to remain relatively stable. But as you mentioned, we do play both sides of that. So, we're beneficiaries regardless of how that plays out in the long-term.

Michael Graham

Management

42:53 I would just add one thing, one of the things that we've benefited from is our reliability in this environment, although everyone was challenged, it was significantly greater than competition. So, I mean, so we are benefiting from some potential staying power as a result of that shortages that were coming from other players. 43:14 As it relates to our overall P&L implications, we've shared in the past that while there's a margin difference, we wouldn't consider that significant, and so we still feel that there is not going to be a material impact to overall profit picture in, as it mixes to change slightly.

Jason English

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

43:34 Understood very helpful. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

43:40 Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session and I'd like to turn the call back to Lance Mitchell, CEO for closing remarks. Over to you.

Lance Mitchell

Management

43:53 Well, thank you everybody for joining us today. We appreciate your time and I just want to reinforce our business is strong and growing and we're forecasting profit growth beginning in the second quarter. 44:05 I particularly want to thank our employees as they’ve continuing to put safety first as we grow this business in this exceptional time. Stay safe and stay well. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

44:18 Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you for your participation.