Jenn Hyman
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Hi, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. We are very proud of our strong Q1 performance which showcases our accelerated business momentum, robust subscriber engagement and improved year-over-year profitability. We exceeded our Q1 guidance across all key metrics both on the top and bottom line. We grew revenue 100% year-over-year and grew gross margin by 9 points year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin came in five points above Q1 2021. We finished Q1 with 135,000 ending active subscribers, hitting a new record high for quarterly ending active subscribers. Additionally, our subscribers are increasingly more profitable for three key reasons. One, the margins of our new subscription plans, whose rollout was completed last year in May 2021, are nearly double what they were in 2019. Two, subscribers are more loyal than pre-COVID. And three, they are highly engaged, evidenced by the rate at which they opt to pay for additional items in their subscriptions, meaning they rent many items from us for more use cases. In sum, we see continued evidence that the strategies we have in place are paying off and we are on track for a record 2022. We remain confident in achieving free cash flow profitability over the medium term with the cash we have on hand as we laid out in our Q4 earnings call as well as with our more near-term goal to cover our operating expenses over the next two to four quarters. In April, I laid out three key business strategies intended to drive top line and three intended to impact the bottom line in 2022. While these initiatives are just gearing up, I wanted to provide updates on our progress in Q1 and how they're impacting our financials. The first top line initiative is events. We believe the boom in events this year gives us the opportunity to build out our funnel of potential subscribers not just for 2022 but for years to come, taking advantage of one of the most unique aspects of the Rent the Runway business: our organic growth flywheel. For 12 years, over 80% of our customers have come to us via word-of-mouth. And as a result, we have not had to be as reliant as others in the consumer space on paid marketing. The reason why renting from us is so viral is because women rent very bold clothing from us. And when a customer walks into a restaurant or work or an event wearing some sexy red knockout dress, the other women in the room notice them and the same conversation ensues, wow, you look awesome. Where did you get that? And the response is typically, thanks. It's Rent the Runway. Multiply this by the roughly 80 days per year when subscribers are in our clothing and that's a lot of opportunities to share Rent the Runway organically. So why am I bringing this up right now? It's because Rent the Runway is benefiting from the fact that women are using fashion for self-expression as they emerge from COVID. In other words, fashion is bolder than ever. The shorter hemlines, cutout, new trends and colorful clothing women are wearing right now translates into highly cost-efficient customer acquisition for us. To this end, we've been taking a 360 approach to capturing this demand with dedicated teams focused on full-funnel marketing strategy and product experience. We've nearly tripled our events-focused content and creative across our own channels and continue to both market our reserve business and position subscription as a solution for multiple events. We're building out the addressable market for wedding through partnerships like our recent successful partnership with Zola and a strong pipeline of future tie-ins during the coming months as we head into peak wedding season. Black tie is to 2022 as sweat pants were to 2020. We are seeing our customers gravitate towards more formal looks with cocktail dresses and gowns having the highest utilization of any category in Q1 and reaching all-time highs. Customers are evidencing greater confidence in their upcoming plans. As an example, international travel as a use case for our new subscribers has almost doubled since fall 2021. Our second and third top line initiatives, search and discovery and fit, are more long term and iterative in nature. In Q1, we focused on back-end infrastructure and cloud investments that provide scaling and efficiency benefits and support our work to provide an enhanced search experience for the consumer which is expected to be rolled out over the coming quarters. Now shifting to our strategies impacting the bottom line. First, we remain extremely excited about the prospects for at-home pickup which is currently live in over 20 markets, covering well over 1/3 of the subscriber base. As a reminder, at-home pickup is not only more convenient for the consumer but also less expensive for us versus national carriers, thanks to pickup density and consolidation of inbound shipments back to our warehouses. We are well on our way to bringing this offering to more than half of our subscriber base by year-end. Customer adoption of home pickup during its initial pilot phase exceeded our plan with minimal marketing efforts. The way customers find out about at-home pickup today is via a sticker on her garment back. We expect adoption to increase meaningfully as we integrate at-home pickup into the product experience of our app which is set to launch within the next few months. Second, we are continuing to build on the technology and automation investments into our warehouses in 2021 which drove a more than 30% year-over-year reduction in non-transportation fulfillment costs in 2021 and we see ongoing opportunity. We completed the full rollout of RFID on all of our rental products at the end of 2021 which affords us many opportunities to simplify processes within our warehouses, reduce labor expense and gather more data. Prior to RFID, each returned item had to be individually scanned with a bar code 10 to 15 times throughout the reverse logistics process versus now, we can quickly scan units via RFID readers without human intervention. This has improved labor productivity and we continue to see cost-savings benefits. RFID also enables us to use the hundreds of millions of data points we've gathered over the past decade to automatically sort our inventory into 1 of 26 distinct cleaning processes to improve garment quality and longevity. In Q1, we took another step in automating our processes and further utilize RFID by rolling out our digital issue tagging software. Now whenever we discover a garment quality defect, we can record it digitally which allows us to automate our decisions around processes like cleaning or restoration which is expected to reduce labor costs and improve product ROI. We also continued the rollout of new packaging in Q1 which is now being used for over 20% of shipments. Our packaging has always been reusable but we've improved upon it, making it waterproof and easier to pack for us and for our customers. The new packaging also doesn't need to be laundered which is more cost-efficient for Rent the Runway and supports our sustainability goals by reducing water usage compared to our current garment [bath] (ph). Third, we continue to grow Exclusive Designs and launched six new collections in Q1. We remain excited about the pipeline with nearly 20 exclusive design partners in 2022, around half of which are new. Share by RTR and Exclusive Designs are on track to represent a combined 60% of our product acquisition mix this year. We are within striking distance of the 2/3 that's embedded in our midterm plan to get to free cash flow profitability. Lastly, I'd like to touch on the macro environment which is on everyone's mind and very uncertain. To date, our business continues to grow and our outlook is positive which is reflected in our guidance this quarter. But I want to take this opportunity to speak a bit to the character of our team. Two years ago, when COVID hit and the U.S. was sheltering at home, our customer demand significantly declined. Our team reacted swiftly and made a series of tough and bold decisions to cut a significant amount of cost from every area of our business. We changed the way we financed our rental products with our vendor support because Rent the Runway matters to them. We nearly doubled the margins of our subscription programs. We transformed processes in our warehouses and added significant automation. We were focused on every dollar that we spend as the culture of frugality is embedded in our DNA. We have well-tested plans based on our COVID experience that give us confidence that we are prepared for macro challenges and can continue to drive our business to profitability and capture our long-term opportunity for a large and profitable business that changes how women get dressed. It's not business as usual but I feel reassured that our team is battle tested, scrappy, innovative and most important resilience. That said, what we believe, interestingly, is that Rent the Runway is entering an environment that may be conducive to growth for our business. Rent the Runway stands to benefit as the share of consumers' wallet shift towards experiences over ownership. We've seen our data that the customer is yearning to get back out into the world, back to weddings, back to concerts and events, back to vacations and even back to the office a few days a week. And we believe that all of this stands to benefit us. Given the significant cost savings she derives from renting which is around 15% of retail price if she rents a la carte and around $20 an item in our subscription program, we believe that women will consider renting in a cost-conscious environment. During the 2008 recession, Americans continued to purchase about 65 articles of apparel per year. They just purchased them more often at off-price and value-focused retailers. At that time, rental and resale were not mainstream options for the consumer the way they are today. We can't predict how the consumer will be impacted by the macro environment but we will aim to be part of the customer's larger cost-savings consideration set during these uncertain times. We plan to stay vigilant and are confident in our ability to react swiftly, take advantage of opportunities and always keep our customer as our North Star. And with that, I'll turn it over to Scarlett.
Scarlett O’Sullivan: Thanks, Jenn and thanks again, everyone, for joining us. I will provide an overview of our first quarter results for fiscal '22 and then follow with guidance for the second quarter and full year. I want to reiterate the financial framework provided in our last call to grow revenue while driving towards profitability. We are focused on growing revenue by growing subscribers and ARPU and also generating revenue from our reserve and resale businesses which are important funnels into subscription. We continue to move towards free cash flow profitability by increasing expense leverage in our three major cost buckets which are fulfillment, operating expenses and investments in rental products. Phase 1 is to cover our OpEx and we maintain our target to reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the next two to four quarters with free cash flow breakeven to follow in the midterm. Q1 revenue of $67.1 million was up 100% year-over-year. We saw a strong post-Omicron bounce-back in subscriber activity after the fiscal year-end with a 17% quarter-over-quarter increase in active subscribers, ending the quarter with 135,000 active subscribers. Total subs increased to 177,000 subs, up 11% quarter-over-quarter and up 70% year-over-year, with pause subs as a percentage of total at 24% compared with 28% at the end of last quarter. I'd now like to provide an update on the price increase we rolled out in Q1. Thus far, the impact has been within our expectations. This speaks to the significant value we offer to our subscription which we think is strengthened in an inflationary environment where the cost of buying new clothing continues to rise. ARPU, defined as average monthly subscription rental revenue per subscriber in Q1, was ahead of our expectations, benefiting from continued success of add-on. 28% of active subs paid for one or more add-ons in Q1 which we were pleased to see in a period of high seasonal acquisition and a higher proportion of new subscribers, resulting in 86% of revenue being generated by subscribers. As a reminder, these add-on items are margin-accretive as they are generally added to an existing shipment with minimal incremental cost to us. We reiterate our outlook for ARPU to be approximately up 5% for fiscal year 2022 versus last year. We also saw reserve and resale benefit from the post-Omicron bounce-back. Customers plan for social events in earnest which led to a beat of over 20% of our reserve revenue relative to our expectations. And we also saw subscribers in particular buy more units than anticipated, boosting our resale revenue above our forecast. Our Q1 gross margin rose 9 points year-over-year to 34%. The significant improvement is due to higher revenue per shipment versus last year and rental product depreciation and revenue share costs at 32% of revenue versus 50% in Q1 '21 as higher subscriber count and therefore higher revenue, absorbed product costs. In addition, revenue share as a percent of revenue was favorable versus our forecast as some Share by RTR items are hitting their max on performance-based payout, after which revenue is no longer shared with brands. We expect gross margin to be slightly higher for full year '22 compared with full year '21. Fulfillment costs were 34% of revenue in Q1 compared with 26% in Q1 last year as we generally expected, largely due to transportation cost increases. We knew these increases were coming starting in H2 last year and have been steadily diversifying our shipping partners which helped to mitigate these costs. In addition, warehouse productivity improvement helped to partly offset the shipping increases. In terms of comping against last year, Q1 '21 still had higher unlimited subscription pricing and subscribers were less engaged given the COVID environment, resulting in lower fulfillment costs as a percent of revenue last year. We maintain our prior expectation of fulfillment costs as a percentage of revenue at approximately 34% for full year '22. Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was negative $8.8 million versus negative $6.2 million in Q1 last year, representing negative 13.1% margin and a five point improvement versus negative 18.5% last year, giving us the confidence to reiterate our target of getting to adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the next two to four quarters. Our total operating expenses, marketing, technology and G&A, represented 77% of revenue compared with 93% in Q1 '21, demonstrating our ability to absorb fixed costs with higher revenue even as we invested in the business in Q1. I want to call out again our investments in technology that provides scaling and efficiency benefits for search, fit and discovery which you saw in our Q4 '21 results continuing into Q1 '22 which we expect into the rest of the year. Marketing in Q1 was 13% of revenue and 11%, excluding employee costs, in a quarter when we grew subscribers significantly and spend was lower than forecasted due to strong organic growth. We intend to keep marketing dollars in our plan for the rest of this year and maintain our target for marketing expense, excluding employee-related costs, at approximately 10% of revenue for the year. Moving to free cash flow. We continue to anticipate rental product CapEx, our largest cash expenditure, at approximately $60 million of fiscal '22 and remind you that seasonally, Q1 and Q3 spend tends to be higher. We are on track in our expectations for the free cash flow margin this year to be slightly lower than in fiscal '21 in a more normalized year of product acquisition. Free cash flow should be measured annually due to seasonality of product spend. And we remain on our path to reach free cash flow breakeven in the midterm as we previously laid out with the cash we have on hand. As we look at the remainder of 2022, we are very mindful of the macro environment and are closely monitoring. And as Jenn noted, our outlook is reflected in our guidance this quarter. A reminder that Rent the Runway started in a recessionary environment and we believe our subscription and a la carte services provide even more financial value and a way to save cost in a cost-conscious environment. We also just navigated two years of COVID impact and we are ready and able to act with effective tools and experience to respond to a negative impact on our business. In particular, a significant portion of our costs are variable and we have demonstrated we can manage our fixed costs and investments in a downturn. Turning to Q2 and rest of year guidance. I want to reiterate the historical seasonality of subscriber acquisition. We just reported on what is typically one of our stronger periods for the year of -- for acquisition when customers naturally think about changing over their wardrobes. This means that in the summer months, we generally see slower acquisition and higher rates of pause and that is reflected in our guidance for Q2. In addition, we expect a continuation of the strong environment for events that we saw benefit our reserve and resale businesses in Q1. And though Rent the Runway has shown greater resilience to COVID variants over time, we continue to closely watch variants and potential impact and we have incorporated similar patterns to the prior two years in our expectations for the second half of this year which means we expect Q4 revenue to be only slightly higher than Q3. For Q2, we expect revenue of $72 million to $74 million, representing 56% year-over-year growth at the midpoint versus Q2 '21. For adjusted EBITDA in Q2, we expect negative $4 million to negative $3 million. In terms of full year, we are reiterating our revenue guidance of $295 million to $305 million, representing 45% to 50% growth versus full year '21. We continue to believe that longer term, we can sustainably grow revenue in excess of 25% annually. We are actively managing to free cash flow dollars and margins and maintain our prior guidance of negative 6% to negative 5% adjusted EBITDA margin for fiscal '22. From a quarterly progression standpoint, a reminder of the pre-COVID seasonality of our profitability with Q3 typically impacted by higher marketing when we lean on seasonal customer acquisition and also by higher product spend and revenue share. We would therefore expect Q3 profitability to be lower than Q2 profitability. We continue to be intently focused on balancing robust growth with profitability and we'll seek to strike the right balance to attain both objectives and maximize the long-term value of Rent the Runway. With that, we are happy to open it up for questions.