Matt Gustke
Analyst · Oliver Chen from Cowen & Company. Your question, please
Thanks, Julie and good afternoon, everyone. So let’s get into and discuss the results for Q3 after which I’ll provide an outlook for Q4. We had a very strong Q3 highlighted by accelerating top line growth, which included a strong tailwind across our top-of-funnel metrics immediately following our IPO, and a significant operating leverage in marketing and operations and technology. Our Q3 results underscore our continued focus on balancing growth with a disciplined approach to driving operating leverage. Now moving on to our key operating metrics. Trailing 12-month active buyers in Q3 were 543,000, up 43% year-over-year. GMV from repeat buyers was at 81.8% of total GMV in Q3, reflecting strong buyer retention and accelerating new buyer growth in the period. We generated $252.8 million in GMV, an increase of 48% year-over-year. GMV growth accelerated 800 basis points quarter-over-quarter. Trailing 12-month GMV per active buyer was approximately $1,700 flat year-over-year. Q3 orders were approximately 577,000, up 41% year-over-year. Consistent with expectations that we articulated on the last quarter’s call, AOV increased year-over-year to $438, a $20 year-over-year increase or 5%. This 5% year-over-year AOV increase was driven primarily by an increase in average selling price per item, while units per order were up modestly year-over-year. Discounting was flat year-over-year. At a category level, all of our top level categories experienced growth in excess of 35% year-over-year, with women’s watches and jewelry, all experiencing quarter-over-quarter acceleration. Men’s and handbags were the fastest growing categories in Q3 with men’s strength in sneakers and street wear. Our Los Angeles store continued to aid men’s category growth. Returns and cancellations were 26.2% of GMV and went down 150 basis points year-over-year, driven primarily by lower cancellations as a result of strong performance in our fulfillment operations. Q3 consignment take rate was 36.8%, an increase of 40 basis points year-over-year. The year-over-year increase in take rate was up more modestly versus Q2, as we experienced more pronounced strength in watches, jewelry and handbags in Q3, which generally carry lower take rates, but also contributed to our strong increase in AOV. We expect year-over-year take rate to increase in the fourth quarter and a modest year-over-year increase in full year 2020, as we fully anniversary our February 2019 take rate adjustment. We also note that take rates can vary from quarter-to-quarter based on the mix of products sold as well as which consigners had item sales. In a steady state, we expect take rates to be highest in the second and third quarters of the year and to decrease in Q4 with a higher mix of high priced products. Now moving on to the P&L. Total revenue in Q3 was $80.5 million, an increase of 55% year-over-year. Revenue growth outpaced GMV by 700 percentage points primarily due to higher take rates and accelerated 400 basis points as compared to Q2’s year-over-year growth. Q3 consignment and service revenue was $69.8 million, up 53% year-over-year and accelerated approximately 900 basis points quarter-over-quarter. Consignment and services revenue includes approximately $5 million of revenue from shipping fees and our subscription program First Look. Direct revenue was $10.7 million, up 75% year-over-year. As a reminder, we primarily generate direct revenue when we accept returns from buyers after we have already paid the consignor. In such instances, we recognize the gross proceeds as revenue when the goods subsequently resell. Q3 gross profit was $52.2 million, an increase a 57% year-over-year. Gross profit per order increased by a 11% year-over-year to more than $90. Our consignment gross margin was 72.1%, up 90 basis points year-over-year driven by a higher take rate. Our direct gross margin was 17.6%, up 540 basis points year-over-year. Direct gross margin is lower than consignment gross margin, because direct revenue is recognized on a gross basis with corresponding cost of sales. Moving on to operating expenses. Please note that I will speak about OpEx on a non-GAAP basis, excluding equity based compensation and related taxes. For our reconciliation to GAAP, please refer to our earnings release. Marketing expense was $13.2 million in Q3, an increase of 25% year-over-year. Marketing as a percentage of revenue improved to 16.5% compared to 20.4% in the same period a year ago. Importantly, we demonstrated approximately 400 basis points of year-over-year marketing leverage, driven by an approximately 15% year-over-year decline in buyer acquisition costs, but also delivering accelerating GMV and revenue growth. We believe there’s continuing opportunity to improve marketing leverage going forward, driven by one; buyer retention, 81.8% of GMV came from repeat buyers in Q3. Two; network effects within our marketplace, including our flywheel, where buyers become consignors and consignors become buyers. Three; continued media mix optimization and finally, conversion to buyers from our long tail of members. We note that marketing leverage will vary from quarter-to-quarter based on the timing of our advertising spend. In Q4, we expect a year-over-year decline in absolute marketing dollars as we executed on our plan to frontload higher ROI marketing spend earlier in 2019 and invest less in lower ROI marketing in Q4. Operations and technology expense which includes costs relating to our stores, luxury consignment offices, fulfillment centers, merchandising, engineering and product management was $36.3 million in Q3, an increase of 30% year-over-year. Operations and technology as a percent of revenue was 45.1%, an improvement compared to 54% in the same period a year ago. This improvement was driven by productivity in our inbound operations from the automation investments that Julie discussed, and the anniversary of our LA store opening. We drove approximately 900 basis points of ops and tech leverage on a reported basis. Excluding the impact of $2 million related to a settlement payment in connection with the early termination of a vendor services agreement that was backed out of our EBITDA reconciliation in Q3 2018, we drove approximately 500 basis points of ops and tech leverage in Q3. We believe there’s continuing opportunity to improve operations and technology leverage going forward driven by automation and occupancy leverage. Selling, general and administrative or SG&A expense was $27.2 million, up at 81% year-over-year. SG&A as a percentage of revenue increased to 33.7% compared to 29% in the same period a year ago, driven primarily by investments in our administrative function headcount to support being a public company, as well as growing our sales team in advance of an expected significant ramp in Q4 supply volume. Our adjusted EBITDA loss for Q3 was $20.9 million or 26.0% of revenue. Importantly, we demonstrated 470 basis points of year-over-year EBITDA margin leverage, while driving accelerating top line growth. At the end of the third quarter, cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaled $370.3 million. Now moving on to guidance. We expect Q4 GMV of $292 million to $300 million, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 34% to 37%. This guidance reflects quarter-to-date trends in demand and supply, a return of top-of-funnel metric growth to pre-IPO levels and a year-over-year decrease in marketing expense that is consistent with our previously articulated plans. We expect our Q4 EBITDA margin loss percent in the range of 14% to 15%, which represents a 15 percentage point to 16 percentage point year-over-year EBITDA margin improvement. We expect the following factors to drive significant Q4 operating leverage. First, gross profit per order. We expect gross profit per order to increase year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Marketing, we expect a year-over-year decline in absolute marketing dollars to result in a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter improvement in marketing as a percent of revenue. Ops and tech, we expect our automation and occupancy leverage to drive a significant year-over-year improvement in Ops and tech as a percent of revenue, consistent with Q3 as a percent of revenue on a reported basis. And SG&A, we expect the deleveraging we experienced in Q3 to moderate in Q4. For the full year, we are raising our GMV outlook and now expect 2019 GMV of $997 million to $1.005 billion, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 40% to 41%. We are also revising our 2019 EBITDA margin range to a loss of 23% to 24%, compared to previous guidance of 24% to 25%. A few final notes for those building models. We expect approximately $3 million to $4 million in stock-based compensation expense in Q4 and our fully diluted share count, including unvested options as of September 30th, 2019 was $95.2 million. In closing, we are pleased to report strong Q3 results highlighted by accelerating top line growth and strong operating leverage. We continue to focus on top line growth and more broadly, driving the growth and development of the authenticated luxury consignment market. And we will do so whilst striking a balance with delivering strong operating leverage as we drive toward profitability. With that, we will open the line for questions. Operator?