Earnings Labs

RideNow Group, Inc. (RDNW)

Q1 2018 Earnings Call· Mon, Apr 30, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the RumbleON First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. I will now like to turn the conference over to Steven Berrard, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Steven Berrard

Analyst · Maxim Group

Good morning and thank you for joining our first quarter 2018 earnings conference call. On the call with me today is Marshall Chesrown, our President and Chief Executive Officer. By now everyone should have access to our earnings announcement which was filed prior to this call. This document may be found on our website at RumbleOn.com under the Investor section. Before we begin, let me remind you that part of our discussion today may include forward-looking statements which are based on the expectations, estimates and projections of management as of today. The forward-looking statements and our discussions are subject to various assumptions, risks, uncertainties and other factors that are difficult to predict which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. These statements are not a guarantee of future performance and therefore undue reliance should not be placed upon them. We refer all of you to our 2017 Form10-K and other recent filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact the future operating results and financial condition of RumbleON, Inc. We disclaim any intentions or obligations to update or revise any forward-looking statements except as required by law. I would like to now turn the call over to Marshall.

Marshall Chesrown

Analyst · Maxim Group

Thank you, Steve. Good morning and welcome everyone to the RumbleON first quarter 2018 earnings conference call. As you know our vision for RumbleON was driven by the belief that there was a significant opportunity to disrupt the pre-owned marketplace in power sports and recreational vehicle as it suffers from many of the same negative consumer sentiment and dealer practices that's existed in the automotive sector prior to the advent and significant influx of new instance and improved business model. Our management team saw a need for a well-designed simple online solution where consumers could buy and sell a broad selection of preowned recreational vehicle at highly competitive prices. To that end our goal from day one has been to change the way consumers and dealers buy and sell motorcycle by providing instant cash offers and offering a compelling value proposition through a quick, simple and transparent process utilizing an easy to use website and mobile app. As we have grown the business over the last nine months we have made significant investments in technology and marketing that gives us a strong foundation for our future. These investment in our unique model and proprietary platform ensure we can effectively scale with the buying and selling of high faulty low cost vehicle to and for consumers and dealers. This in turn enables us to improve growth process for the unit and significantly reduce variable operating cost while also refining and developing logistics and fulfillment channels to improve inventory returns, transportation and reconditioning stock. In addition we have invested heavily in cost effective marketing particularly in social media and search engine marketing to further reduced customer acquisition cost which are currently significantly lower than it's typical for the automotive industry. Our agnostic multi-channel approach to consumers and dealers utilizes brand building and…

Steven Berrard

Analyst · Maxim Group

Thank you, Marshall. Before I begin I just want to remind everyone that there were no vehicle sales or little other business activity during the first quarter of 2017 so we will not discuss comparisons for that quarter. For the first quarter of 2018 total revenue was $8.1 million, and it was ahead of our expectation. This was primarily result of strong reception to our marketing efforts driving $8 million from the sale of used vehicle to consumers and the others as well as related vehicle financing and service contract. During the first quarter we experienced a significant shift in our sales mix between Harley Davidson and non-Harley Davidson as well the shifted sales channel mix between consumers and dealers. In Q1 we sold 878 unit to consumers and dealers at an average selling price of $9185 and a total average blended gross profit of $788 or 8.6% per unit as compared to $887 or 9.2% a unit in Q4 2017. The change in unit gross profit and margin percentage was a result of the higher margin consumer sales representing a smaller percentage of total sales in Q1 than in Q4 of 2017. In Q1 unit sales profit for consumer sales was $2008 with a 16.4% sales margin and dealer unit sales profit was $1041 with an 11.7% sales margin. In Q1, the average selling price for consumer unit was $12207 with a gross profit of $1677 or 13.7% and the average selling price for dealer units was $8874 with a gross profit of $696 or 7.8%. Regarding sales mix, during the quarter Harley Davidson represented 69% of vehicle sales with an average selling price of $10,759 and a gross margin of 7.5% and non-Harley Davidson had an average selling price of $5622 with a 13.1% gross margin. Other sales…

Marshall Chesrown

Analyst · Maxim Group

Let me close by reiterating a few key takeaways. First, we're very pleased with the ramp-in units and revenue we experienced in the first quarter and expect the trends to continue. Doubling unit, sales in Q2 and totalling in excess of $10,000 units for the full year. Next we clearly see the ability to leverage the model in a meaningful way. We expect a sequential improvement in expenses as a percent of revenue and believe we have significant room to improve sales margins through technology improvement and as we drive an increase in the consumer sales mix via some exciting some enhancements to the RumbleON customer experience. Our expectation is to be profitable by year-end and see significant operating leverage beyond that period. We have taken aggressive steps to refine the model and believe the metrics are a powerful indicator for where we can take RMBL. The first quarter represented our first full quarter of operation and we already have achieved unit sales levels that took years for peers in the automotive sector to achieve and we accomplish this at gross margin percentages in dollars that are competitive to or better than what our automotive peers are realizing currently. We expect to turn inventory with an average day in inventory of less than 20 which improves the risk profile significantly and ROI and will easily be best in class. Once again I want to make crystal clear we are the only buyer and seller of vehicles of any kind that does it 100% online. We don't just market online, we transact online and that leads to significant disruption in the way vehicles are bought and sold going forward. Lastly we as a management team are highly focused on creating shareholder value and have a significant alignment with our shareholders. In…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. We will take our first question from [indiscernible] from ROTH Capital Partners.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

I had a question as you progress through this. Steve you mentioned a lot of numbers, is that a mix of 69%, Harley 31%, non-Harley. Like as you talk about the [indiscernible] of units, a couple of questions. One, is the mix shift going to sort of inverse as the year goes on [Technical Difficulty] revenue like what's the blended mix on that and then I think there is a little disparity in terms of Harley and non-Harley gross margin? Can you one just talk about why that's the case and then two how you get that more to a level of parity going forward? And then my last question would just be around your infrastructure for doing appraisal, cash offers etcetera, do you have enough people in place today to get to the $100 million number or what's kind of the headcount assumption going forward. Thank you.

Steven Berrard

Analyst · Maxim Group

Well first of all, I will start with the last one. We continue to make significant improvements in our technology which allows us to process a much higher amount per person per hour. We already which is very early in the cycle earlier than we anticipated we already do not have data people but data is being produced by our system and the data that we have we simply have a supervised whether it is released in those vouchers if you will, those cash offers. We have gone from being able to do about 20 an hour with the new technology enhancements, a single supervisor can do about an 100 an hour, so its significantly higher than we even anticipated or were able to reach in the automotive sector. So we are pretty excited about that. We actually have reduced head count on the appraisal side but because of the flow of purchases we've increased the documents people, the document specialists in this side of the business are a must have primarily because of the title, each day has its own title laws and those other things that we have deal with that in that regard. With regards to the mix, I think that the quarter is probably close to reflective of going forward look. However we will continue to increase the amount of non-Harley Davidson simply that because of the amount of the market that there is. We can't control necessarily what customers put into the appraisal funnels. So it's going to be - we think at the end of the day probably [indiscernible] with more of the total market which you know Harley's you've heard it say before represents about 50% of just the 600cc in larger motorcycle but there's a whole lot of players in all the…

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Nehal Chokshi from Maxim Group.

Nehal Chokshi

Analyst · Maxim Group

The 6.9% gross margins that includes the processing cost were about 150 basis points of processing cost based on the numbers you gave on the conference call, and I think last quarter the processing cost came out to about 674 basis points. So that's a dramatic improvement in the efficiency, what were the drivers of that improvement.

Steven Berrard

Analyst · Maxim Group

Well a couple of things, one the fact that we're now expanding out on our partner network with auctions, the freight number has come down and because we're now doing a large percentage of our reconditioning auctions we are not saying retail price and so we have seen a significant decline in reconditioning and we expect as we go forward part of the ramp up in margins is going to come from the fact that now we have added more additional logs and freight bill will continue to come down you know the 569 that we had this quarter in the 400 next quarter and we'll continue to recondition at the auction as well because they do a really good job. They give us condition reports which help us a great deal in terms of retail deal.

Nehal Chokshi

Analyst · Maxim Group

And then I appreciate the color on how you get to 100 million that is effectively there you got our I think 37% more vehicles or more or less 30% lesser ASP than - I know I didn't get the numbers right but that's generally ballpark that we are talking about, what is the acquisition rate that you expect to achieve to reach that? I think you said it might be around 12.5% acquisition rate in this quarter. What is that acquisition rate you expect to achieve throughout the downtown year, 18% and what are the [indiscernible] achieving that acquisition rate at the intended gross margin excluding the processing cost.

Marshall Chesrown

Analyst · Maxim Group

I will take that one. The increase in or the potential to increase the capture rate on appraisals continues to improve, month in and month out. Some of it has to do with the more robust data as we move forward, we're able to capture a bigger percent. We are presently experiencing better numbers than the quarter, the quarter I believe was 14 little over 14% on the approval rate and what that means is you know obviously 14 of a 100 out there they say accepted. Keep in mind that you know a lot of people can't accept because of negative equity which is the same thing CarMax experiences in their in-store model. And then secondly you know there's some - obviously there is always some opportunity for unrealistic expectations but with that said we think that over time we can continue to work that up to probably in the neighbourhood of 20% acceptance rate and that you know greatly enhances the you know the flow of vehicle. We are improving week over week day over day, week over week right now in the amount of opportunities to acquire and I think as our algorithms get better on the pricing we'll be able to increase that and then also we've made significant changes in our process to where you know it's not taking - it's taking half the time as far as days to process these vehicles. Right now our average shipping is running about the six days and considering that we're buying from every corner of the earth and shipping to you know 25 different locations we've been very happy with the improvement there and 20 date - you didn't ask the question but a 20 day turn rate in the vehicle business average days of stock is - I've been doing it for 40 years I've never seen numbers turn that fast. So we are really excited from that standpoint because it really increases your or decreases your inventory risk with - something else on the price vehicle just real quick for everybody as that ASP comes down the inventory value risk comes down with it. You know a $3000 Harley Davidson, the $3000 per day is worth $3000 three years from now. So there really is no inventory risk in that lower price so there's just a lot of dynamics that lower ASP actually is a huge improvement as one of the opportunity for gross margin.

Nehal Chokshi

Analyst · Maxim Group

And then just to be clear you know to get to the 100 million, 10,000 units so you did approximately 1000 this quarter, you're saying you're going to double it to 2000. If you keep on doubling obviously you're going to blow through that right? So your guidance includes some I guess expenses and services and in terms of the production and the rate of your acute growth rate. But to be able to look out you know into the third quarter and fourth quarter and say yes, we can definitely get to 3000, 4000 vehicles per quarter, what is that you're seeing that gives you that confidence other than what is your current acute growth rate?

Marshall Chesrown

Analyst · Maxim Group

Well first off there's plenty of opportunities. The size of the market is bigger than we originally anticipated. The desire from the consumer to not have to go through the current liquidation experience which is [indiscernible] primarily is extremely high and you know if you just purely do it on a market share rate considering that the other option for consumers is so miserable we're very, very confident and we're very confident on Q2 as well as you know as well as going forward. One thing I did want to touch on we didn't mention it in the script today is with regards to last quarter we mentioned that we brought on some of the larger automotive groups i.e. Sonic and Autonation and other. I would tell you also that we are buying bikes on a daily basis from these automotive purveyors and we've brought a really great tool for them because the deals that they are making today by us providing liquidity on a product that they don't want but their consumer wants to trade has been as big as anticipated and we think it's something that we can grow exponentially over time.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from [indiscernible] from Aegis.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Some have probably traded companies and most of the companies have highlighted that adverse weather unusually cold winter weather impacted sales in Q1, you also had great topline results but to what extent do you feel you may have been actually negatively impacted and your numbers been even stronger in Q1 if not for that pretty cold weather through much of the country. Thanks.

Marshall Chesrown

Analyst · Maxim Group

We don't feel at all. We feel that the opportunity to buy in the colder areas of the country, and [indiscernible] weather or power sports which again these are wants not needs that people want to liquidate their opportunity to put that in Craigslist in a snowstorm in the northeast is probably not very efficient and we offer cash for that customer. We are anticipating seasonal and we're tracking the data that we've received from some of people that we work with i.e. the auctions and dealers, but we don't anticipate to have the amount of seasonality or the effect of these local weather pattern because as an example right now the market is really starting to eat up in the northeast and obviously it's not real hot in December and in January but it seems from our perspective that the type of inventory that we're selling there is a demand for all kinds of year and we just look at it as an offset, we are in all 48 states so you know when it gets too hot in Texas which is June and July it's the middle of the season for the north and the Midwest and the northeast and the flip flop of that as time progresses. So we do anticipate some seasonality we have not experienced that at this point and in fact it seems like the opportunity to acquire which is what our whole deal revolves around actually is a benefit in the increment time.

Operator

Operator

And we will take our next question from [indiscernible].

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

So one quick housekeeping question I think you guys mentioned it but I missed it how many total appraisals did you do for the quarter? I thought maybe Marshall mentioned in his.

Marshall Chesrown

Analyst · Maxim Group

Oh yes, its $12059. I think fourth quarter was about $3900.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, that makes sense.

Marshall Chesrown

Analyst · Maxim Group

With regards to the marketing it seems like we can continue to dial that at a rapid phase but we are obviously but we're still very, very new in the cycle and we're trying to you know maintain some reasonable fiscal responsibilities with regards to the marketing expense not just on cash added but it does seem you know we've enhanced the advertising spend significantly pretty much in the same areas and it does not feel like we've you know even scratched the surface yet of opportunity.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And then just as a follow up, it looks like you've taken the dealer listings off the site, is that a temporary thing or is that a permanent change?

Marshall Chesrown

Analyst · Maxim Group

Yes, I wondered if someone is going to say that. We have a plan - we're getting ready to launch as we said some really, really interesting enhancements, I will be interested to get everybody's feedback on them with regards to the website and we do see a huge opportunity to be a significant listener of vehicle both for consumers and dealers but we want to do it in a different format and I won't get into all the details of it but I would tell you that before the quarter you will see what that plan is as it's rolled out. Definitely a big appetite out there for it but we felt at the present time that it was kind of muddying up the customer offering that it was a little confusing for the consumer but we wanted to wait until we had enough meaningful inventory. Today we have about 700 motorcycles in stock and so we're starting to get meaningful inventory that we happen to know is that very, very competitive prices and you know it's exciting for consumers to see and to muddy that up with vehicles that we don't control the pricing metrics of it, etcetera, is a little confusing I guess. So we've got an answer for it we think it's a great opportunity, we think it's a great opportunity for future revenue but we'll unveil that as time goes forward.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question [indiscernible].

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Just wondering what is the quarterly breakeven run-rate for you guys revenue wise?

Steven Berrard

Analyst · Maxim Group

Probably in the $30 million range.

Operator

Operator

We will take Patrick Murphy from Maxis Group [ph].

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

So on the Harley Davidson call they mentioned a competitive environment in the used market and it was putting some pressure on their business. Do you guys think that RumbleON is providing some of that pressure and if so is that a reason why there are a discrepancy in margins between Harley Davidson and non-Harley Davidson? Thanks.

Marshall Chesrown

Analyst · Maxim Group

I don't know they have anything to do with the margin piece of it. I think that yes we have been disruptive in that regard you know a big percentage of these are going to dealers and Harley is always had the opinion that when they sell a used bike they could have sold to customer a new one, I for one don't agree with that scenario but you know the used market is based on supply and demand, the demand will always be higher on pre-owned because of price point and a lot more people can afford what we sell. We think over time that enhancements [ph] all the manufactures because we are bringing a significant amount of first time riders to the marketplace which they are all sending millions and millions of dollars of trying to generate So again I can't speak for Harley's business on the new side because obviously we're not in it but I do think that we have been a participant in disrupting the purchase intention of consumers. We have got room for one more question if someone has? I think we're good.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions.

Marshall Chesrown

Analyst · Maxim Group

Thanks everyone for their time. We really appreciate it.

Steven Berrard

Analyst · Maxim Group

See you next quarter.