Thomas Capasse
Analyst · B. Riley Securities.
Yes, I mean there's 8 food groups in the Moody's [indiscernible] and there's 8 answers to that question. But the one that's relevant for Ready is obviously multi, and that's 80% of our exposure. So, to answer that very briefly, yes, we believe that it's rotational bottoms in submarkets, which are tied to supply hitting the market. The multifamily starts were up since 2020, I think, to the early this year, late last year, up like 50%, 60%. They're now down year-over-year to 35%. So what you're seeing is price declines and therefore rent declines in select submarkets where there's a lot of supply hitting the market. So, certain markets -- so to figure the bottoms in each of the markets, you look at the amount of supply and how long it takes to absorb that excess supply before the market bottoms. And overall, we're down 16% in multifamily prices. We think we have another 5% to go. But broadly speaking, we think the bottom is sometime in the later half of '24, with significant variations in markets.
And again, to reemphasize what we said in the earnings call, we use a GEO tier model for years to break markets 1 through 5, and one major input in the model is negative absorber supply and negative absorption. So, we've dodged a lot of the big bullets, like in Austin, Texas, for example. But that's -- so that's -- so we think at the end of the day, the multifamily valuations are floored based on the huge delta in buy versus rent. The average monthly payment in United States now is nearly $3,000 for a medium priced home and the average rent is a little under $2,000, that's a 50-year high. So that will underpin the demand for apartments in relation to as single family and also create a floor on multifamily valuations, which is why we're highly confident in our legacy book because of the going in LTV of low 60s. Even with these declines, there's a government takeout through Fannie Freddie and they just need some time to work through the business plans. But the valuations we think are unlike office, which is we think a 5-year secular decline, multifamily is solid.