Tom Capasse
Analyst · Stephen Laws with Raymond James. Please go ahead
Thanks, Andrew. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the call today. Before we dive into the numbers, a few observations on the macro backdrop, since late first quarter 2022, the historic velocity of the Fed's rate increases has led Ready Capital to pivot to a defensive posture in the event recession. However, we believe Ready Capital's multifamily sector focused and diversified business model affords strength in our liquidity, credit, book value and earnings in a stressed economic environment. First, in terms of liquidity, as of 9/30, ReadyCap had $1 billion in unencumbered assets, including $200 million in cash and an additional $2.4 billion in available warehouse capacity. Further, recourse leverage of 1.6x is within our 2:1 target and critically short-term repo at $392 million is only 4% of total debt and is primarily secured by floating rate, short duration assets subject to low price volatility. Additionally, only 16% of our debt is subject to mark-to-market and the average maturity of our warehouse lines is two years. Finally, near-term maturities and corporate debt are modest with 10% of the outstanding $1.1 billion due in August 2023 and the balance laddered after April 2025. Second is credit. Our historical sector focus on lower middle market multifamily, which comprise 72% of our current CRE portfolio will benefit from the shock and housing affordability, which is tilted to buy versus rent calculus to rent. The doubling in mortgage rates to 7% has increased the US mortgage to rent ratio from the 103% prior 10-year average to a 159% today. This will support lower vacancy rates and positive rent growth even in a recession, particularly in our affordable multifamily niche. In terms of our small business segment, our credit team forecast an increase in delinquencies from 1.5% currently to approximately 3.5%, for which we are adequately reserved. This segment represents 4.5% of equity, and as such, net credit loss exposure would be modest. In the event of a recession, a big differentiator versus the peer group is portfolio diversification. The 10 largest loans equate to only 9% of the total loan portfolio, and we notably have no exposure to CBD office. Our office allocation is only 5% of our portfolio with a $2.4 million average balance. Third is book value. Given the first two factors, the hallmark of ReadyCap since COVID has been stable book value. Post the first quarter 2020 application of CECL, book value has actually increased 7% to $15.40 per share. This contrasts with the 15% to 30% year-to-date book value declines in the residential REIT sector as well as write-downs of C-REITs with significant CBD office exposure. We view book value preservation and growth as a key metric in evaluating ReadyCap's return. To that end, given the strength of our liquidity, we repurchased 3.6 million shares since September 30, resulting in approximately $0.16 per share accretion. Finally, dividend yield. As we've been communicating for a few quarters, we expect earnings to normalize over the coming quarters due to the runoff of the COVID stimulus revenue from PPP and the decline in mortgage banking. These declines will be moderated by lending and acquisition activity with a 300 to 500 basis point increase in ROE in the current distressed environment for core commercial real estate. Over the last two years, ReadyCap has paid and covered a dividend yield of 11.6% on average book value, which is in excess of the peer group average. As we look forward, we expect our business model to be capable of continuing to deliver a peer group premium, albeit at levels more similar to pre-COVID quarters. Our Board of Directors plans to realign the dividend in the fourth quarter to ensure our go-forward dividend is covered by normalized distributable earnings. Now reflecting industry trends, CRE lending volume was down 34% quarter-over-quarter at $831 million. However, this vintage features a significant yield premium with a more conservative underwriting compared to 2021. In terms of pricing, spreads on new production increased 80 basis points to SOFR+ 480, which even with the wider CRE CLO spreads equates to a 15% levered ROE. These higher yields are despite a defensive pivot and credit. 83% of volume was in cash flow in multifamily and 70% in Tier 1 and Tier 2 markets migrating to our strongest sponsors. Additionally, under stabilized yields our new production increased 8%, while loan-to-value decreased to 65%. Quarterly production in Europe increased with $75 million closed across five deals in the UK sourced via the three strategic European partnerships executed over the last year. The loans have a similar credit profile as our US bridge lending products that feature a 200 basis point yield premium. Our near-term defense strategy positions CRE lending volumes to stabilize near third quarter levels, as we harvest excess liquidity for higher ROE opportunities in the distressed secondary markets. Investment in distressed small balance commercial real estate loans is a differentiating factor in our business model. We were a top three buyer of distressed small balance loans from banks post the GFC, acquiring $3.4 billion, and we note a new supply in the recession from the post-GFC surface of 250-plus private credit funds. In the quarter, the CRE portfolio increased 2% to $9.6 billion across 2,300 loans. A number of credit metrics position the portfolio to outperform in a recession. Weighted average LTVs of 66%, with 84% of the portfolio concentrated in lower risk sectors, cash flow in multifamily mixed-use and industrial versus office. Current 60-day delinquencies remain low at 2.8%. Lastly, from an earnings perspective, 84% of the portfolio is floating rate. In our Small Business Lending segment, 7(a) production increased to $134 million, split 85% between our large loan and 15% in our emerging small loan segments. Pricing averaged prime plus 190 basis points. On the volume side, we expect a cyclical decline in 7(a) volume from $26 billion at FY 9/30, but are projecting continued growth in our volume due to market share gains, especially in our small loan segment. This is evident in our money up pipeline of $225 million as of quarter end. As discussed in prior quarters, we have leveraged our Fintech rebranded as iBusiness to drive efficiencies in volume in the small business lending segment, particularly the SBA 7(a) small and micro loan sectors, which are a major policy acts for the Biden administration in terms of reaching minority and women-owned businesses. Beyond the application to our own production, we began marketing the technology as a separate lending-as-a-service profit center. Teeding these technologies within our lending ecosystem and creating scale with a longer term potential spin-off provides another avenue for creating shareholder value. Our residential mortgage banking business, GMFS, continues to be impacted by rising rates and lower refinancing volume with originations of $534 million for the quarter. Despite compressed margins averaging 74 basis points in volume declines of 28%, GMFS remains profitable due to its servicing-retained strategy. As discussed in prior quarters, we continue to pursue and evaluate initiatives, which may include strategic transactions. With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.