Mike Guthrie
Analyst · LightShed
I mean, we don't give formal guidance, as you know. I always look variety of data, but I look at our bookings charts and our DAU chart a lot. I look at them over like a 12-quarter period. And obviously, on an absolute basis, the business has been really up into the right over the last, well, 12 quarters and even before that. The point of that, though, is when I look at the growth rates that were in 2Q of '20 and 3Q of '20 and 4Q of '20, the first 4 quarters of COVID, we just had immense growth 3 times the rate of growth in some of the quarters. Between the first quarter of '21 and the second quarter of '21, we went from 161% bookings growth to 35%. And what that really represented was comparisons. We were finally in a period where we were comparing against our early quarterly results when COVID started. When we look at Ebola, a lot to see, is that a onetime bump in our business? Or are we retaining those users? Are they becoming engaged users on Roblox? And as we open things up or as the world opens up, are they staying with us? And the answer is yes. We probably most clearly see that in payer data, where just the raw number of payers has been growing sequentially for a long time and now it is at peak levels. What we also know right now is that the big difference in bookings, separate from users and engagement. It's -- the biggest in the growth in bookings really has to do with the rates of growth on weekdays and weekends. So if we just look at the United States and the United Kingdom, in particular, when COVID started every day, Monday through Friday, we had super high growth because people weren't at work or at school versus our normally high rates of growth, mostly focused on the weekend. Now we're kind of unwinding that trend that people are going back to work, our growth rates necessarily is going down on the weekdays. But the weekend growth is still significant. And so that gives us confidence to say that as we lap we believe that we'll be returning to high rates of growth as a great consumer internet business. So that's what we're focused on doing. The difficult compares really when we look at last year, it's right after April, in that May, June time frame that we talked about. And just having looking at that data as you're coming down the other side, I would expect that growth starts to accelerate. And as we look to late this year, then we're going to start getting more normalized comparisons and that should be an indication of what we think we can do in '23 and '24. But overall, when we look at that data, we also look at a lot of other things like changes to our product, things that we're doing and how we're investing in the business. And as a company focused on getting to 1 billion users, we're nowhere close to that. So we're quite optimistic about growth, especially as we expand the platform into other areas.