Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to Ryder System Incorporated's Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Release Conference Call. All lines are in a listen-only mode until after the presentation. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would like to introduce Mr. Bob Brunn, Vice President, Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations for Ryder. Mr. Brunn, you may begin. Robert S. Brunn - VP-Investor Relations & Corporate Strategy: Thanks very much. Good morning, and welcome to Ryder's third quarter 2015 earnings conference call. I'd like to remind you that during this presentation, you'll hear some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in economic, business, competitive, market, political, and regulatory factors. More detailed information about these factors is contained in this morning's earnings release and in Ryder's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Presenting on today's call are Robert Sanchez, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Art Garcia, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, Dennis Cooke, President of Global Fleet Management Solutions; John Diez, President of Dedicated Transportation Solutions and Steve Sensing, President of Global Supply Chain Solutions are on the call today and available for questions following the presentation. With that, let me turn it over to Robert. Robert E. Sanchez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. This morning, we'll recap our third quarter 2015 results, review the asset management area and discuss the current outlook for our business. Then we'll open the call for questions. With that, let's turn to an overview of our third quarter results. Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were a record $1.74 for the third quarter 2015, up from $1.63 in the prior year. This is an improvement of $0.11 or 7%. Comparable earnings per share excludes non-operating pension costs of $0.05 in the third quarter of this year and $0.03 last year. Our results were below our initial forecast range of a $1.82 to a $1.87, but were in line with the top end of our revised forecast range, announced early last week. Our forecast for the third quarter was revised recently to reflect a $0.06 impact from a temporary maintenance execution issue, and a $0.05 impact from less robust supply demand conditions in used vehicle sales. We experienced a higher than planned number of out-of-service vehicles during the quarter. This occurred because maintenance technicians were supporting new levels of fleet growth across all product lines, while at the same time, we were continuing to drive further productivity within the maintenance organization. We've made significant progress on this issue, and expected to be fully resolved this month with no ongoing impact into 2016. In used vehicle sales, we saw lower volumes and reduced pricing, particularly in September. I'll discuss used vehicle sales trends in more detail later in the call. Operating revenue, which excludes fuel and subcontracted transportation revenue, grew by 6%, to a record $1.4 billion for the third quarter and was higher in all business segments. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, operating revenue grew by 8% for the quarter. Total revenue declined primarily due to lower fuel costs passed through to customers. Page five includes some additional financial information for the third quarter. The average number of diluted shares outstanding for the quarter increased to 53.3 million shares, up from 53 million last year. In January, we temporarily paused repurchase activity because our balance sheet leverage was nearing the high-end of our target range of 225% to 275%. Repurchase activity remains paused because our leverage is now just above the high-end of our target. We'll continue to evaluate the appropriate timing to resume anti-dilutive share repurchases going forward. Excluding pension costs and other items, the comparable tax rate was 35.3%, generally in line with the prior year. Page six highlights key financial statistics on a year-to-date basis. Operating revenue was up 6% to $4.1 billion. Comparable EPS from continuing operations were $4.47, up 12% from last year. The spread between adjusted return on capital and cost of capital widened to 140 basis points, up 50 basis points from the prior year, driven primarily by higher leverage. On a full-year basis, we expect the spread to be 150 basis points. I'll turn now to page seven and discuss some key trends we saw in the business segments during the quarter. Fleet Management Solutions operating revenue, which excludes fuel, grew 6%, driven mainly by the growth in full service lease and commercial rental. Excluding the impact from foreign exchange, FMS operating revenue was up 8%. Full service lease revenue increased by 6%, or 8% excluding FX, due to fleet growth and higher rates on replacement vehicles, reflecting the higher costs of new vehicles. The lease fleet grew organically by 7,400 vehicles year-over-year. Sequentially, from the second quarter, the lease fleet increased by 1,900 vehicles. In addition, we had near-record new lease contract signings in the quarter. These continued strong sales levels, later in the calendar year, provide us with great fleet growth momentum into 2016, as these units get built and delivered to customers typically four months to five months later. Based on our strong contract signing activity and sales pipeline, we expect record lease fleet growth of 6,000 to 6,500 vehicles for the full year 2015, above our prior forecast of 5,000 to 6,000 vehicles. Miles driven per vehicle per day on U.S. lease power units declined 1% versus the prior year, but continue to run at normal historical levels. Contract maintenance revenue increased 4%. Our contract maintenance fleet grew by approximately 200 vehicles from the prior year, but was down 500 vehicles sequentially. Looking ahead, we expect sequential growth in this product line, as we signed a significant new customer in July that will start up in the fourth quarter. Contract-related maintenance revenue was up 5% from the prior year. Included in contract-related maintenance are 8,200 vehicles serviced during the quarter under on-demand maintenance agreements, an increase of 32% from the prior year. During August, we also – we more broadly launched this new product at our annual carrier conference and have geared up expanded sales efforts to respond to strong customer interest. We have significant opportunity to increase volumes within customers that have already signed up for the service and are engaged in discussions with multiple new prospects. Commercial rental revenue was up 7% for the quarter or 9% excluding FX. The increase was driven by higher demand and pricing in North America. Rental revenue was particularly strong in the U.S. which was up 12% for the quarter. Higher rental demand is being supported by growth in our lease and national rental customer base. The average rental fleet grew by 7% from the prior year. Rental utilization on power units was 76.4%, down 160 basis points from the prior year, but still at a strong level. This decline was due to the higher number of out-of-service rental vehicles discussed earlier as these unavailable units are included in the denominator of the utilization calculation. Global pricing on power units was up 2% below the forecast of 3% for the quarter. Our market rates were in line with expectations; however the overall realized price increase reflects a different fleet mix and a higher proportion of rental vehicles being used by lease customers at lower rates. Used vehicle results were negatively impacted by lower volumes, partially offset by higher year-over-year pricing. I'll discuss those results separately in a few minutes. Overall, FMS earnings increased due to higher full service lease results and strong rental performance, partially offset by lower used vehicle sales results. Better lease results reflect fleet growth and vehicle residual value benefits. Commercial rental performance benefited from higher demand in pricing on a larger fleet. These benefits were partially offset by used vehicle sales results. Earnings before taxes in FMS increased 5%. Earnings as a percent of operating revenue were 12.8%, down 20 basis points from the prior year. Lower gains on used vehicles sales negatively impacted the growth in pre-tax earnings percent in FMS by 60 basis points. I'll turn now to Dedicated Transportation Solutions on page eight. Operating revenue grew 9% due to new business, higher volumes and increased pricing. Total revenue was unchanged reflecting lower fuel costs passed through to customers. DTS earnings increased 12% due to new business and increased pricing, partially offset by higher self-insurance cost. Segment earnings before taxes as a percent of operating revenue were 7.2%, up 20 basis points from the prior year. Higher self-insurance costs negatively impacted EBT margins by approximately 80 basis points. We expect improved margin comparisons in the fourth quarter, driven by new business and as we move past the high self-insurance costs we experienced during the year. I'll turn now to Supply Chain Solutions on page nine. Operating revenue grew by 5% due to new business, higher pricing and increased volumes. SCS operating revenue grew 9% excluding the impact of FX. Total revenue was slightly down, reflecting lower third-party purchase transportation costs and lower fuel costs passed through to customers. SCS earnings before taxes were up 9% due primarily to higher pricing and higher volumes. Segment earnings before taxes as a percent of operating revenue were 8.3% for the quarter, up 30 basis points from the prior year. Page 10 shows the business segment view of the income statement I just discussed and is included here for your reference. Page 11 reflects our year-to-date results by business segment. In the interest of time, I won't review these results in detail, but I'll just highlight bottom-line results. Comparable year-to-date earnings from continuing operations were $239 million, up 12% from last year. At this point, I'll turn the call over to our CFO, Art Garcia, to cover several items including capital expenditures. Art A. Garcia - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Robert. Turning to page 12, year-to-date gross capital expenditures were $2.1 billion, up nearly $370 million from the prior year. This increase reflects planned investments in our lease and rental fleets in light of new lease contracting activity and a strong rental demand environment. We realized proceeds primarily from the sale of revenue earning equipment of $321 million; it's down $75 million from the prior year. The decrease primarily reflects planned lower volumes of vehicles sold. Net capital expenditures increased by about $440 million to nearly $1.8 billion. Turning to the next page, we generated cash from operating activities of about $1.1 billion year-to-date, up by $90 million. The increase was driven primarily by higher cash-based earnings. We generated $1.4 billion of total cash year-to-date, up $19 million from the prior year. Cash payments for capital expenditures increased by about $350 million to just under $2.1 billion year-to-date. The company's free cash flow was negative $644 million year-to-date versus the prior year of negative $317 million, reflecting capital expenditures to grow our lease and rental fleets. Page 14 addresses our debt-to-equity position. Total debt of approximately $5.5 billion, increased by $720 million from year-end 2014. As a reminder, last quarter, we revised the accounting treatment for prior sale leaseback transactions to reflect them as balance sheet debt rather than off-balance sheet financing. As such, we are eliminating the total obligations measure we previously used as balance sheet debt is now substantially the same as total obligations. Our primary leverage metric and target of 225% to 275% now refers to debt-to-equity. Debt-to-equity at the end of the quarter increased to 279%, it's up from 260% at the end of 2014. Leverage increased primarily due to vehicle investments to fund growth as well as foreign exchange. We expect leverage to be at the higher end of our target range at year-end. Equity at the end of the quarter was $1.95 billion that's up $133 million from year-end 2014, primarily due to earnings, partially offset by foreign exchange and dividends. At this point, I'll hand the call back over to Robert to provide an asset management update. Robert E. Sanchez - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Art. Page 16 summarizes key results for our asset management area. Used vehicle inventory held for sale was 6,100 vehicles, up from 5,800 vehicles in the prior year and 200 vehicles above the second quarter. Used vehicle inventory was at the low end of our target range of 6,000 vehicles to 8,000 vehicles. The number of used vehicles sold during the quarter, were 4,400, down 12% from the prior year and down 6% sequentially. Year-to-date, we've sold 13,400 vehicles. Used vehicle pricing growth moderated on a year-over-year basis, particularly in September, when we lowered pricing as a result of somewhat slower sales volumes. Compared to the third quarter of 2014, proceeds from vehicles sold were up 5% for tractors and up 8% for trucks. From a sequential standpoint, tractor pricing was down 3% and truck pricing was down 4% versus the second quarter of 2015. With the heavy fleet replacement cycle that occurred in the overall market this year, there are significant number of 2011 and 2012 model year Class 8 tractors currently available. Prices on these units are under pressure due to the performance challenges with the newer engine technology. While we're not selling many of these model years ourselves, these price pressures are trickling down somewhat to the seven-year to eight-year old tractors we typically sell. The number of lease vehicles that were extended beyond their original lease term decreased versus last year by around 620 units or 13% year-to-date that is well below recessionary levels. This reflects a lower number of lease contract expirations this year. Early terminations of lease vehicles decreased by a 100 units year-to-date and remain well below recessionary levels. I'll turn now to page 18 to cover our outlook and forecast. During the third quarter, we delivered solid year-over-year revenue and earnings improvement across all business segments. We're particularly encouraged by continued momentum in lease sales and fleet growth, strong rental demand and solid performance in our Dedicated and Supply Chain businesses. In full service lease, we've realized strong sales activity throughout the year and have a robust new business pipeline. As mentioned earlier, for the full year, we expect to achieve record lease fleet growth of 6,000 vehicles to 6,500 vehicles, above our prior forecast range of 5,000 vehicles to 6,000 vehicles. We've continued to see around a one-third of our new truck leases coming from customers new to outsourcing. As a reminder, capital on lease trucks is only committed after the customer signs the contract with us and these contracts are generally for the full expected operating life of the vehicle. As we look into next year, these strong lease sales, particularly those in the back half of 2015 provide nice year-over-year revenue and earnings momentum, as we will realize a full year of revenue and earnings contribution in 2016 as opposed to partial year of contribution in 2015. In rental, we're pleased with the strong demand we've seen this year, which is being supported by growth in our lease and national rental customer base. Demand has been stronger in all vehicle classes, but relatively more in trucks and less so in tractors. We're seeing solid rental reservation request from our seasonal shipping customers for November and December. We've made significant progress on our out-of-service issue and expect to fully return these vehicles to service this month, with no ongoing impact into 2016. We now expect our full year average rental fleet to grow 7% versus our prior forecast of 6%. Our outlook for rental pricing is a 3% increase for the full year. In the fourth quarter, the average rental fleet is expected to grow by 8%, with pricing up 2%. We expect year-over-year utilization comparisons in the fourth quarter to be similar to those that we saw in the third quarter, reflecting vehicles out of service in October and strong prior year-end results. We're planning for seasonal rental de-fleeting at year-end particularly for tractors to prepare for the first quarter. We'll evaluate the demand conditions as we head into 2016 for next year's fleet planning. We're pleased with the continued strong market interest in our new on-demand service and introduced the product to a significant number of prospects at a large carrier conference that we hosted in August. With the IT work to support the product behind us, we've expanded the sales team who can sell on-demand. We also have significant opportunities to realize higher volumes within the fleets we've already signed. In used vehicle sales, we've adjusted our pricing due to a less robust supply demand conditions we saw late in the third quarter. We're in a good position with lean inventories today and with a normal percent of lease expirations over the next couple of years. While used vehicle prices across the board are being pressured by the supply of newer, but less desirable units from a technology standpoint, prices on our older, well maintained units are holding up relatively better. For the fourth quarter, we're assuming a further modest decline in pricing as compared to what we realized in September. Overall for the fourth quarter, we expect year-over-year gains on used vehicle sales to be down by the same magnitude as the third quarter with improved volumes offsetting lower pricing. As we look ahead into 2016, we're likely to see lower gains on sale due to pricing. However, we should see a benefit in depreciation due to higher residual values using our five-year rolling average methodology. We are currently conducting our annual residual value analysis and will provide an earnings benefit on this on our fourth quarter earnings call. In Supply Chain, we're expecting modest fourth quarter revenue growth due to lower volumes, while strong earnings performance trends are expected to continue. In the Dedicated segment, we expect strong earnings growth in the fourth quarter driven by new sales and lower self-insurance expense. Looking ahead to next year, Dedicated revenue growth is expected to remain in the high single-digit level and benefit from several large deals we anticipate closing by year-end. Our fourth quarter comparable EPS forecast is a $1.72 to a $1.82 versus the prior year of a $1.59 or an increase of 8% to 14%. While we expect rental and used vehicle results to be, as I've described this morning, the low-end of our forecast range contemplates the potential for a modestly weaker environment in these areas. Our full year EPS forecast is $6.17 to $6.29, an 11% to 13% increase from our prior year of $5.58. That concludes our prepared remarks this morning. At this time, I'll turn the call over to the operator to open up the line for questions. In order to give everyone an opportunity, please limit yourself to one question and one related follow-up if clarification is needed. If you have additional questions, you're welcome to get back in the queue, and we'll take as many calls as we can.