Gregory T. Swienton
Analyst · Stifel, Nicolaus
Thank you, Art. Page 15 summarizes that key results for our asset management area globally. At the end of the quarter, our global Used Vehicle inventory for sale was 6,300 vehicles, up by 1,100 units or 21% from the fourth quarter 2010 and is well within our target range. We sold 4,200 vehicles during the quarter, up 5%. We saw a continued strength in Used Vehicle demand and pricing in the quarter. Improved demand is a result of both relatively better market conditions and the desire of some truck buyers to obtain pre-2010 engines. Stronger demand combined with less available inventory in the market has allowed us to up-price generally, and in the U.S. market to increase the proportion of retail sales where we realize better prices. Compared to the fourth quarter 2010, proceeds per vehicle were up 29% on tractors and were unchanged for trucks. Excluding some older units in Canada that we took to the auction market, truck proceeds would've been 4% higher than the prior year. From a sequential standpoint, tractor pricing was up 5%. Truck pricing was down 3% sequentially versus the third quarter 2011 or down 1% excluding the Canadian auction units. At the end of the quarter, approximately 8,900 vehicles were classified as no longer earning revenue. This was up by 1,700 units or 24% from the prior year and reflects an increase in lease replacement activity. The increase also reflects seasonal out servicing of older rental units, which we expect to continue in the first quarter. As expected, the number of lease contracts on existing vehicles that were extended beyond their original lease term declined versus last year although, they're still running somewhat above normalized levels. This decline reflects an increase in new, full-term lease contract sales instead of lease extensions by customers. Early terminations of leased vehicles declined by about 625 units or 17%. Early terminations were less than half what they were 2 years ago and were at the lowest level in the past decade. This continues to be a very positive indicator of improved lease demand. Let me now move to a discussion of our 2012 outlook. And Pages 17 and 18 highlight some of the key assumptions in the development of the 2012 earnings forecast I'll review shortly. Beginning on Page 17. Our 2012 plan anticipates a moderately improving overall economic and freight environment with higher new sales in all of our business segments. Pension costs will significantly increase in 2012 due to lower actual and expected pension investment returns. We expect that foreign exchange rates will reflect a continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This negatively impacts reported revenue, and to a lesser extent, earnings. In the Fleet Management area, based on trends that started year, we're anticipating stronger new contractual sales and improving customer retention levels. This should lead to organic growth in the contractual fleet throughout 2012. In Commercial Rental, we anticipate a higher demand and continued strong utilization with further pricing improvement during the year on a larger fleet. We'll also see a partial carryover benefit from the Hill Hire acquisition, which closed in June of last year. In the Used Vehicle area, we expect that the number of vehicles sold will increase due to higher lease and rental replacement activity this year. We anticipate Used Vehicle pricing to be stable. Depreciation will benefit due to our annual residual review that incorporates improved vehicle pricing we realized in 2011. Overall, as margins are expected to increase due to organic growth, the depreciation change, as well as productivity initiatives. And this increase in margin will be partially offset by higher maintenance costs on a slightly older lease fleet. Turning to Page 18, in supply chain we expect growth in revenue and earnings due to both new business and higher volumes. In our dedicated service offering, we're working on operational initiatives to drive improved earnings. As an additional note, as some of you may be aware, our supply chain segment provides logistics services to Kodak, which filed for bankruptcy on January 19. Our pre-petition trade receivables total approximately $3 million, most of which was outstanding at year end. Kodak is in the early stages of the bankruptcy process. However, we do not anticipate nonpayment of the pre-petition receivables. As such, no reserves have been set aside. This is subject, however, to their bankruptcy finalization. And if the situation changed from our current expectations, we could potentially incur a charge related to the bankruptcy. Page 19 provides a summary of some of the key financial statistics in our 2012 forecast. Based on the assumptions I just outlined, we expect operating revenue to grow by 6% this year. Comparable earnings from continuing operations are forecast to increase by 14% to 17%, showing strong operating leverage on our revenue growth. Comparable earnings per share are expected to increase by 15% to 17% to a range of $4 to $4.10 in 2012 as compared to $3.49 last year. Our average diluted share count is forecast to remain constant at 50.9 million shares outstanding. We project a 2012 comparable tax rate of 35.9%, below the prior year's rate of 36.7% reflecting higher earnings and lower tax rate jurisdictions. Our return on capital is forecast to increase from 5.7% in 2011 to 5.9% this year driven by higher projected earnings. The next page, Page 20, outlines our revenue expectations by business segment. In Fleet Management, contractual revenue and lease and contract maintenance is forecasted to be up by 5%. This largely reflects improved organic growth, the impact of prior acquisitions, higher rates on new sales resulting from increased vehicle investment costs and the CPI rate increases. In Commercial Rental, we're forecasting revenue growth of 17%. This is driven by a modestly improved economic environment, establishment of new rental customer relationships and use of rental by private fleet owners who don't want to purchase trucks themselves. The 17% increase in projected rental revenue reflects an 11% increase in the average fleet size and a 6% increase in price. Supply chain operating revenue is expected to grow by approximately 2%, driven by organic new business activity and volume improvements. Page 21 provides our waterfall chart outlining the key changes in our comparable EPS forecast from 2011 to 2012. In 2012, pension expense will be higher by $0.18, above our prior expectations of $0.01 to $0.06. The increase is driven by lower actual and future projected pension investment returns in the plans. Next, we plan to make several strategic investments to support the long-term growth and profitability of our business. These investments mainly fall in the areas of enhancing the maintenance technology and processes in our shops, as well as sales and marketing. These strategic investments are expected to cost between $0.11 and $0.13 this year. A stronger U.S. dollar is projected to lower EPS by $0.06 in 2012, but this negative foreign exchange impact is largely offset by a tax rate benefit of $0.05. We expect improved results in our Supply Chain Solution segment, which will include all dedicated activity in 2012. New sales, improved volumes and lower overhead costs are projected to increase EPS by $0.09 in 2012. The rollover benefit from the Hill Hire acquisition is expected at $0.14 to EPS this year. In FMS, we reviewed and modified our residual value estimates to reflect the impact of higher Used Vehicle prices we saw last year, and the change in depreciation rates would benefit EPS by $0.22. Our lease fleet size increased sequentially in the latter part of 2011, reflecting improved lease sales and renewal activity, while maintenance costs will be higher on a full year basis due to a slightly older fleet. Continued improvement in organic sales is expected to provide EPS growth of $0.13 to $0.17. And finally, a larger Commercial Rental fleet and higher pricing is forecast to improve EPS by $0.25 to $0.29 for the year. So in total, these items are expected to result in comparable EPS of $4 to $4.10 in 2012. I'll turn it over to Art now to cover capital spending and cash flow.