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QXO, Inc. (QXO)

Q2 2008 Earnings Call· Fri, May 9, 2008

$19.67

+0.28%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Beacon Roofing Supply’s fiscal year 2008 second quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) On this call, Beacon Roofing Supply will make forward-looking statements, including statements about its plans and objectives and future economic performance. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors including but not limited to those set forth in the risk factor section of the company’s latest form 10-K. On the call today for Beacon Roofing Supply will be Robert Buck, Chairman and CEO; Paul Isabella, President and COO; and David Grace, Chief Financial Officer. I’d now like to turn the call over to Robert Buck, Chairman and CEO of Beacon Roofing Supply.

Robert Buck

Chairman

Welcome to our second quarter 2008 earnings call. I will begin the call with a few summary comments and then David Grace, our CFO, will present the financial details of our performance. As I’ve done for previous calls, I’ve prepared a few questions and answers covering the important topics that we know you want covered during this call. After I’ve handled the prepared questions, we will open the call for additional questions that you might have. For the quarter, sales increased 6% while organic sales decreased 6.7%, which is a big improvement over the 12% decrease in organic sales during the first quarter, and I’m excited to say that the third quarter is off to a strong start and we are hopeful that trend will continue. EPS for the quarter was in analyst range, albeit on the low end of that range, and our second quarter, which is our winter quarter, is highly dependent upon the weather. You will hear more about our expense control programs on this call and we will explain that gross margins firmed up at our existing branch locations and we also want you to take note of our strong cash flows even during this winter quarter. We want you to be aware of these positives and this performance while at the same time we acknowledge that we can and we will do better. Paul Isabella, our new COO, is on the call, and he is doing a fantastic job executing our business plan of running a lean and efficient company. The third quarter is shaping up well and we have a strong handle on our costs and capital spending. I am also very proud of the officer leadership team and the tough decisions they are making and what I want to do now is turn it over to David and he will give financial results, and then I’ll come back with the Q&A.

David R. Grace

Management

In the second quarter of fiscal 2008, our net sales increased 6% to $304.3 million from $286.9 million in 2007. Our quiet markets, which are comprised mostly of [not gross] commercial roofing systems, added $36.4 million in net sales. Our existing markets, which were comprised of 160 branches, not included in our acquired markets, saw a sales contraction of $19.1 million or 6.7%. There continues to be a lower level of new home construction activities, and in some instances, lower levels of re-roofing and remodeling, with flat to slightly declining material prices as compared to 2007. Towards the end of the second quarter, we raised some of our prices to our customers in response to price increases received from some of our suppliers. We do not believe these increases had a material impact on this quarter but they will have some effect in the future. Residential roofing products sales continue to struggle in most of our regions with a drop of 10.5% for the quarter. Non-residential roofing grew by 4.2% with most markets seeing good activity except in the Midwest which was down, mainly due to our harsher winter. Complementary products reacted much like our residential roofing products, down 12.1% and again across most of our existing markets. We estimate inflation in our product cost based upon our current inventory’s product mix and invoice cost as compared to the invoice cost of the same products a year ago. Based upon this estimate, our product costs were flat to fiscal 2007 levels, but as I mentioned, our suppliers have increased prices for residential roofing and some complementary products ranging from 5% to 15% which were effective on February 1st and this has increased our weighted average cost of those products. We closed one branch during the current quarter compared to three…

Robert Buck

Chairman

What I want to do now is go through these important questions that are often asked, we’ll get through these, and then we’ll open the call. The first question: which product segment has shown the most firming up of margins? The answer is: surprisingly, non-residential is less stable at this time than any others are although we continue to see sales growth from this segment, albeit in low single digits. Residential roofing product margins, especially with the price increases beginning to take effect seem to be stabilizing while complementary product sales were down in most regions. When you add it all together gross margins in existing regions are up and that is certainly good news. The second question: Existing market sales declined less in the first quarter. Can you give us more details? After a tough December and January, we saw some encouraging signs in February and March although the prior year comparisons are easier. As I’ve said in the past, I am looking for a sustained period of perhaps two or three months of good activity before we might conclude the worst may be over. The Northeast and other northern regions who were hit with an early winter, they rebounded somewhat during the quarter, but then some other areas were sluggish, such as the southeast, midsouth, and west. There are bright spots. Again, the northeast, Canada, Mid-Atlantic, Central Plains, all held up best in the second quarter. Third question: We are all aware of the slowdown in new residential construction. Can you quantify any slowdown in re-roofing? Let’s take a stab at that. As you may know, we do not have a completely accurate method of tracking new versus re-roofing, but maybe we can make a few suggestions to help you understand the situation, so we’ll go through a…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Analyst for Michael Rehaut - J.P. Morgan.

Analyst for Michael Rehaut - J.P. Morgan

Analyst

Just a follow up on the price increases of 5% to 15%. We’re actually hearing from some suppliers that they’re actually not able to pass along prices as much as they expected. How much of the 5% to 15% have you been able to pass through? Some of the manufacturers, some of their comments have suggested that they were unable to pass along those price increases to those customers.

Robert Buck

Chairman

I think our manufacturers have been pretty successful. They’ve been very firm and that’s how we are reacting to it, so I’d have to find out more offline of which ones you’re speaking about. At this point, I think most folks are very clear on that because of the price accrued. It continues to increase in our view and I’m sure in theirs they really have no choice.

Analyst for Michael Rehaut - J.P. Morgan

Analyst

Just following up with your comments on April, is the growth year-over-year or is it more like sequential, seasonal pick up?

Robert Buck

Chairman

It’s growth year-over-year.

Analyst for Michael Rehaut - J.P. Morgan

Analyst

Is that across all business segments and products?

Robert Buck

Chairman

It really is strong, pretty much all, but not all. I think that we do have some summary comments about where the strengths are, the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Texas, Canada, southwest, and the Midwest. Our North Coast operation is also doing quite well, so that’s where our strengths are. The West Coast still appears to be flat but everything else is good and when you put it all together, its growth year-over-year.

Analyst for Michael Rehaut - J.P. Morgan

Analyst

Just lastly on the cost out initiatives, how much have you saved so far since you’ve implemented that program and how much further do you think you can do on that, and then to follow up on that, if you could break out your cost of goods sold, what the fixed and variable costs are approximately?

David R. Grace

Management

We saved approximately $9 million year to date, $4.7 million for Q2. As far as the fixed and variable for the costs, it’s 100% variable. We really don’t manufacture anything or add any costs to those invoice costs that we get from our vendors.

Analyst for Michael Rehaut - J.P. Morgan

Analyst

I was under the impression that you said most of your costs were fixed.

David R. Grace

Management

That would be our SG&A costs are fixed and we have 60% to 70% of those are fixed but we’ve been actually been able to during Q2 save more variable costs than with the actual de-leveraging of those fixed costs.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from David Manthey – Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. David Manthey - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: All else equal when you look at the next quarter, given that I think you mentioned that you picked up a bit of an inventory gain from buying ahead of the price increases. Could you quantify that? And then if we look out to next quarter, will the reduction in gross margin as that goes away be offset by an increase from the price increases that are actually being implemented by you? I know that’s a long question but hopefully you got that.

David R. Grace

Management

That’s really twofold. One, we made some purchasing deals during the quarter which will benefit us in Q3. Whether that goes away in Q4 is another matter under proper accounting for rebates and special buy income as we call it. That really gets pent up as a reserve against inventory until we sell the product, so we had some of that at the end of December and we have even more of that at the end of March. As far as quantifying by dollars, it’s less than 2% to 3% of our total inventory. David Manthey - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: And then in terms of the non-residential market, on the new construction side, are you seeing signs of weakness there yet and if you could talk about a little bit longer term, have you historically seen any correlation between new non-res construction and non-res re-roofing?

David R. Grace

Management

We obviously think that the new non-res construction is the weaker of the two in that marketplace. Re-roofing is such a strong component of that that it’s somewhat difficult to tell, but there is still construction activity in a lot of markets that’s happening, whether that is going to go away at the end of the roofing season in October or November is another matter. As far as in the past, there really hasn’t been much of a correlation. I was here in the early 90s and the new construction basically stopped but the re-roofing is the only thing that kept up the industry at that point of time. So I’m not sure that there’s a direct correlation. I’m sure with the economy that’s happening across the country there is going to be some slowdown in re-roofing, how much it is, I’m not sure. In the past it’s been very small.

Robert Buck

Chairman

Actually the number of regions that showed growth in the commercial area increased in the second quarter so our commercial business did better in the second than in the first so that segment is helping us and the manufacturers still are looking for a good ’08 in that regard. David Manthey - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: Did you see growth in ’01 and ’02 in non-res re-roofing?

Robert Buck

Chairman

We were flat in the fist quarter; well, we saw minor growth in the first quarter, and in the first quarter, I think it’s in the Q we saw 4% growth in non-res commercial in the second quarter. David Manthey - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: I meant 2001 and 2002, Bob.

Robert Buck

Chairman

Oh, I’m sorry.

David R. Grace

Management

We actually did see growth in 2001. Remember, our year end is in September, so it was before 9/11 and the effects that happened after that. 2001, I think we had about a 6% drop in non-residential business. A check of that, Dave, though, was deflation and might have been the majority of it. We think unit volume was still okay but we have the great product mix and we’re able to offset that. We actually had some growth in 2002 in total on an organic basis albeit it was less than 2%.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from Justin Harrison - Ramsey Asset Management.

Justin Harrison - Ramsey Asset Management

Analyst

I was hoping that you could comment on some of your thoughts for the back half of non-residential growth. I’m looking at the two year trend because we have pretty much an easy comp this year, so going back the past three quarters, the two year trend in your existing markets seems to be going down pretty strongly from about, quick math, 21% to 3% to minus 10. I’m just wondering what your thoughts are on why that will reverse and why we’ll see some growth in the back half.

Robert Buck

Chairman

Our look-see on the second half is not the return to those robust years. We’re seeing the same slower growth in the second half but our opinion as well as the manufacturers’ is that the second half will be a growth period.

Justin Harrison - Ramsey Asset Management

Analyst

So there will be year-over-year growth on the back half in commercial?

Robert Buck

Chairman

We certainly hope so. That’s what we’re anticipating.

David R. Grace

Management

And remember, we had much stronger growth in ’06, upwards to 20% almost throughout the whole year in non-residential roofing, which we felt was much about what the market was doing at that time, so we took some market share and to continue to have even low single digit growth for the rest of 2008 in our eyes is great news to us.

Operator

Operator

That concludes the questions.

Robert Buck

Chairman

Again, thanks everyone for dialing in and I just have a few closing comments. David and Paul and I will be available post-call for telephone calls, emails, and so forth, so we’ll be available to you. Thanks for your questions and let me close with these points of emphasis. The market was slow in some regions in the second quarter but we’re encouraged by the growth in the third quarter, particularly in the northeast, the mid-Atlantic, Midwest, southwest, and central plains. Our commercial business is still strong for us in most regions including, again, the northeast, Canada, North Coast, which is our acquisition from a year ago, and the southwest. Thirdly, gross margins are firming up which is very encouraging for us because it is happening in a time when we are doing a good job reducing operating expenses. The effect of price increases will be more pronounced in our third quarter since most price increases were announced mid to late March and it appears that more price increases are on the way. In conclusion, we’re controlling our costs for the level of business we have and we are now entering the busy season for our fiscal year in good shape operationally. If business holds up, the performance in the second half will be very encouraging. So that concludes the call and again I appreciate your interest and support in our company and look forward to seeing many of you and talking to you in the future. Thank you very much.