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QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)

Q4 2008 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 7, 2008

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Qualcomm fourth quarter and fiscal 2008 conference call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded November 6, 2008. The playback number for today's call is 800-642-1687. International callers, please dial 706-645-9291. The playback reservation number is 67351049. I would now like to turn the call over to John Gilbert, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Gilbert, please go ahead.

John Gilbert

Operator

Thank you, and good afternoon. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Dr. Paul Jacobs, Steve Mollenkopf and Bill Keitel. Steve Altman, Len Lauer and Don Rosenberg and Derek Aberle will join the question-and-answer session. An internet presentation and audio broadcast accompanies this call, and you can access it by visiting www.qualcomm.com. During this conference call, if we use any non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the SEC and Regulation G, you can find the required reconciliations to GAAP on our website. I would also direct you to our 10-K and earnings release which were filed and furnished with the SEC today and are available on our website. We may make forward-looking statements relating to our expectations and other future events that may differ materially from Qualcomm 's actual results. Please review our SEC filings for a detailed presentation of each of our businesses and associated risks and other important factors that may cause our actual results to differ from these forward-looking statements. I'd also like to remind our listeners that our New York Analyst Day is this coming Thursday, November 13. The analyst meeting will be webcast for those of you unable to attend. And now, it is my pleasure to introduce Qualcomm 's CEO, Dr. Paul Jacobs.

Paul Jacobs

Analyst

Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. I am very pleased with the performance of our business this past year, particularly the strong execution of our chipset business and our successful settlement with Nokia. While we continue to see strong growth in 3G CDMA, the current macroeconomic condition and potential for further economic slowdown creates an uncertain business environment for the next few quarters. Before I comment further on our business going forward, I would like to highlight what was a very successful fiscal 2008 for Qualcomm. We had three important transitions in our executive team this past quarter. I'm very pleased to welcome Len Lauer as Chief Operating Officer, Steve Mollenkopf as President of QCT and Derek Aberle as President of QTL. We look forward to their continued contribution and leadership in these new roles. In fiscal 2008, we achieved record pro forma revenues, up 25% year-over-year; record pro forma earnings per share, up 12% year-over-year; and our operating cash flow remained strong at 32% of revenues. Our fourth fiscal quarter includes revenues and earnings per share related to our completion of the settlement and license agreements with Nokia. In addition, the quarter also includes impairments of our marketable securities portfolio that are related to the impact of the recent disruption in the financial markets. The GAAP year-over-year comparison is also affected by a one-time tax benefit in the fourth quarter of fiscal year '07. As of the end of October, out of a total transit portfolio of approximately $13 billion, we had approximately $1.3 billion in net unrealized losses on marketable securities, which could result in additional impairments if financial markets do not improve. These potential impairments are excluded from our guidance as global financial markets are too volatile to predict in the near term. Over the last…

Steve Mollenkopf

Analyst

Thank you, Paul. This has been an excellent quarter and a great year for QCT. I would like to share the highlights. We shipped approximately 86 million chipsets in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008, representing a 26% increase year-over-year. For the entire fiscal year, we delivered a record 336 million chipsets, which represents 33% growth from fiscal 2007. QCT's fiscal 2008 revenues were also at record levels for the year and reflects growth of approximately 27% over fiscal 2007. Our forecast assumes our MSM shipments for the next few quarters will be impacted by a significant contraction in channel inventory. We believe this inventory contraction is driven by the current macroeconomic conditions and not a shift of market share. Our CDMA2000 product portfolio continues to perform well with the volume being helped by our high-end MSM 7000-series chipsets. This trend also helped QCT to maintain consistent average ASPs in a price competitive environment. CDMA2000 EV-DO shipments increased 8% sequentially and 19% on an annual basis for the fiscal 2007 to fiscal 2008. Our QSC single-chip solutions for CDMA2000 are making strong inroads in emerging markets. More than 20 customers have launched over 50 handset models. We expect our single-chip customers to launch over 30 more new handset models in the near future. Finally, we shipped a record number of CSM base station channels this past quarter, which indicates the CDMA2000 ecosystem that we expect will continue to expand. Our UMTS products also continued to gain traction, as we solidify our strong position with WCDMA, HSPA and HSPA+ technologies. Our UMTS shipments grew by 11% over the previous quarter and more than doubled in fiscal 2008 as compared to 2007. Market traction for our single-chip UMTS products continues to be strongly driven by worldwide migration of 2G users to 3G.…

John Gilbert

Operator

Thank you, Bill. Before we go into our question-and-answer session, I'd like to remind our participants that our goal is to address as many questions as possible before we run out of time on this call. Please limit your questions to one per caller. Operator, we are ready for questions. Operator: (Operator Instructions). Maynard Um from UBS, please go ahead with your question.

Maynard Um

Analyst

Hi, thanks. Presumably, there is not a whole lot of visibility out there one year out. Just curious when you look at the numbers now, how conservative or aggressive do you think your guidance might be, because you are looking for fairly good handset unit growth in 2009, but implied a much weaker chipset? Even taking into account the inventory correction, it feels like there might be a disconnect. Are you overly conservative here on the chipset side or how comfortable or how much visibility do you have to the handset side? Thanks.

Bill Keitel

Analyst

Maynard, these estimates that we have given are our best estimates. We are not attempting to be conservative here. The inventory contraction will have a significant impact on MSM shipments. We expect that will be largely limited to the first two quarters of fiscal 2009. In terms of fiscal 2010, I would add that under Paul's direction and his caps on our headcount and resource growth that we first took a careful look at 2010 and updated that outlook in line with the goal of targeting our R&D programs, so that we end up where we want to be two and three years from now, and not overly focus on an inventory contraction here for the first two quarters.

Operator

Operator

Glen Yeung from Citi, please go ahead with your question.

Peter Karazeris

Analyst

Hi. So, this is Peter Karazeris for Glen Yeung. Your 2009 handset ASP assumption of 195, down 10.5, can you give us a sense of the run rate of how that would come through the year? In other words, is it a relatively steep decline in the beginning or does that decline somewhat steadily? Really in the same vein, as we began this year, you had guided to 199 and had upside to the year. Can you give us some of the puts and takes around that ASP number, what would be upside and what would be downside? Thanks.

Bill Keitel

Analyst

Hey, Peter. So, we think we are coming off of fiscal Q4 at about a $216 ASP, and our estimate for the first fiscal quarter is $205. I will share with you that the $216 to the $205, we estimate approximately $9 of that is due to the stronger dollar. I would add I think we have pretty good visibility on that, given that the exchange rates with our licensees was set at the end of September. I think we are starting the fiscal year at a price for the handset ASP of about $205. From there, there will be puts and takes quarter-to-quarter. In general, what we do see is a greater growth in developing world relative to developed world as compared to what we were expecting just recently. In that developing world, obviously, they are looking for a less expensive handset. Of course, that is fulfilled largely with our lower-end chipset as well. Other than that, I would say, yes, we did have a favorable ASP for fiscal 2008 relative to the expectations at the outset of the year for fiscal 2008 relative to the expectations at the outset of the year. A large element of that was the weaker dollar which at the outset of the year we hadn't anticipated. Then number two, a pretty strong trend, much stronger than we expected to smartphones. I think that the run rate we have got here and the interest in smartphones, I think we have got that pretty well sized. I hope there is upside, but I have to say I think these are our best estimates at this time.

Peter Karazeris

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ittai Kidron from Oppenheimer, please go ahead with your question.

Ittai Kidron

Analyst

Thank you very much. First, a question for you, Bill, just taking the high end of your operating income guidance for the first quarter and your EPS range, does that mean you expect a strong rebound in interest income? The second question is to Steve on the chipset side. Can you give us more color on, first of all, how do you expect chipset ASPs to behave through '09? I assume that the operating margin of QCT is going to get significantly contracted, just given the inventory correction. If you can clarify on the inventory correction, whether this is a pure chipset inventory or you also see a strong handset inventory. It was not clear in the commentary whether this is something that your customers need to correct or something that you need to correct within your customers.

Bill Keitel

Analyst

Okay. I will start. This is Bill Keitel, and I will offer my perspectives on both your questions and let anybody else here chime in. On the investment income for fiscal Q1, the guidance does include, I think, a rational rate of investment income as compared to the fiscal 2004 actuals. As far as clearing this, I will try and be extra clear. In fiscal 2004 actuals, we had a $327 million charge for other than temporary impairments and in the guidance for the first fiscal quarter, I have not included an estimate of impairments as traditionally I never have. I wish I could have better visibility on that to give some indication, but the volatility in the market is such, I just do not feel capable of doing so. So, there is a risk of less investment income than what is contained in that EPS guidance, but we are just going to have to see how the quarter progresses. I would add that then on your question on the inventory, I will take the first stab at that. Our estimate of channel inventory is from a time an MSM ships to the time a handset is in the hands of a subscriber. So it covers the OEM cycle, the carrier cycle and the distributor cycle. So, what we believe we are seeing is everybody in the chain to one degree to another trying to reduce the amount of inventory they are holding, given the uncertain economic environment. We see them all taking a defensive posture. So, that reverberates back into our chipset business, because to some degree, carriers and/or distributors are looking to reduce their inventories which puts pressure on the OEMs. The OEMs as well we think are trying to reduce their inventories. So, it gets magnified into our chipset business.

Ittai Kidron

Analyst

With regard to ASPs?

Paul Jacobs

Analyst

I think with regard to ASP, in the first quarter, I think we expect to see a similar trend to what we saw in the fourth quarter of last year, which was a continued strong movement toward the higher end mix, as we said in our prepared remarks. I think in the second half of the year, consistent with what Bill said, it is fairly difficult for us I think to predict what the mix is going to be. I think that is something that we really do not have as much visibility into at this point.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Tim Long from Banc Of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Tim Long

Analyst

Thank you. Just a two parter here on Nokia and the impact. Thanks for breaking out the different splits of the one-time payment. Just curious, when you look at the impact of Nokia on the fiscal '09 estimates compared to the range that you gave the day of the announcement, did that change at all? In other words, did that change given better visibility into their units and ASPs? Then the second part, Bill, could you just discuss with us a little bit how we should think about the effective royalty rate on the business if we are going to exclude out the amortization of the $3.9 billion? So, how should we think about the effective royalty rate on ongoing CDMA, WCDMA shipments? Thank you.

Bill Keitel

Analyst

Okay, Tim. First on Nokia. Back in July, when we announced our fiscal Q3 and as well as announced that early stage we were at on an agreement with Nokia, at that time, we had estimated that in fiscal 2008, EPS improvement would be in a range of $0.07 to $0.13, and we had estimated fiscal '09 in a range of $0.20 to $0.28. Fiscal '08 obviously, as I just stated, came in at $0.20. So, not only did we hit the high end, but we went above. That was largely due to the accounting of the patents that we received from Nokia. Within our current guidance right now for fiscal '09, given the results of the Nokia agreement, we are now at the lower end of that prior guidance. So we well exceeded the range for our guidance on fiscal '08. We are at the low end of our prior guidance for fiscal 2009.

Tim Long

Analyst

Okay. What brings you down there, Bill?

Bill Keitel

Analyst

It was really sizing the forward royalties and then to this patent cost, the $1.8 billion. Revenue and cost over the full 15-year period will both equal $1.8 billion. The accounting required the revenue to start earlier than the cost. So, we had that $0.06 pick up in fiscal '08. That $0.06 pick up will now, over the next 15 years, be amortized, will revert back. So, part of that that is impacted is bringing down the FY'09 estimate. I would also add, Tim, I think everybody recognizes that we had a very short interval back in July to get through the agreement and our estimates, and it was very preliminary at that time. Then as well, of course, we are now looking at a very significantly smaller market than what we were back in that July timeframe. As I said, in the August timeframe, we were looking at earnings per share target for fiscal '09 in the $2.60 range and here we are looking at $2 to $2.10. So, I think the smaller market is probably one of the bigger impacts.

Operator

Operator

Mark McKechnie from AmTech, please go ahead with your question.

Mark McKechnie

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. I appreciate it. I wanted to ask about the chipset the recovery. It seems like you are getting hit by inventory. Do you expect chipsets to bounce back up in the 70 million level there in the June quarter or the September quarter or how do you see them bouncing back? Yes, thanks.

Bill Keitel

Analyst

Yes, we have looked carefully at the times in the past when we have seen inventory corrections. We have reached out to a lot of our contacts within the total chain to get our best handle on what we think is going to happen in this contraction. We think this is going to be a much faster contraction. It is going to happen a lot quicker than what we have seen in the past. I feel like we got pretty good insight on that. So, we see this happening over the next two quarters. As I said, we think it is going to drop just a little bit below the historical normal average of 15 to 20 weeks. Then, from there, we are projecting a modest increase in that channel inventory coming out of the fiscal year in the range of about 17 weeks. So, a little difficult to say for sure, but I feel reasonably good about that estimate at this time. So, once that inventory channel stops contracting, then I think we see a more normalized MSM shipment level. I do not think we want at this time to get into unit estimates out in that timeframe. We will be sharing more about our forward plans next week in New York. I would just point you back to what I said in my prepared comments that operating expenses we think are going to be distorted as a percent of revenue here for the next two quarters. Based on our plans, we see a more normalized level that is operating expense as a percent of revenue in fiscal Q3 and fiscal Q4.

Mark McKechnie

Analyst

That is because you are expecting a pretty big bounce back in fiscal Q3 I am assuming in revenues, right? It is not because you are going to cut expenses.

Bill Keitel

Analyst

Once the inventory contraction stops, then I think we will see our chip shipments getting back to a more normalized level pretty quickly.

Mark McKechnie

Analyst

Got it. Thanks.

Paul Jacobs

Analyst

Obviously we are going to watch this. These are all projections based off of models that we had from previous years. We do not think the inventory levels are sustainable over the long-term. Of course, we will watch and we have contingency plans. If we do not see the recovery happen, if it takes an extra quarter or something like that, we will look at other ways of reducing costs, and we are going to continue to do that throughout the year.

Operator

Operator

Ehud Gelblum from JPMorgan, please go ahead with your question.

Ehud Gelblum

Analyst

Thank you very much. A clarification on a couple of things, Bill. First, the 10% uptick in OpEx you are actually expecting for '09, does that include the amortization of the $1.8 billion Nokia patent, which is three quarters of that would be about $100 million or is that in COGS and not part of the OpEx uptick? Then was that $1.8 billion you paid to Nokia, did you actually pay that? Is that a cash payment? So, on a net basis you got $700 million? I am just trying to understand how that works.

Bill Keitel

Analyst

Okay, yes, Ehud. In terms of the OpEx, that does not include patent amortization. The patent amortization is in cost of sales, and that was not a cash transfer with the patent transfer.

Ehud Gelblum

Analyst

Okay.

Bill Keitel

Analyst

So, only a $2.5 billion payment to Qualcomm.

Ehud Gelblum

Analyst

Okay. That is actually very helpful. Then a more fundamental question; when you are talking about going from 19 weeks of inventory in the channel than the 14 weeks, was the 19 weeks based on your prior shipment record of about 86 million per quarter, which translates to about 6.5 million chips per week, or is it based on the new level of 60-65 which is 4.50 million to 5 million a week or is the 19 based on the higher number and 14 based on the lower number? Just trying to get a sense of how many chips were really chucking out of the channel over the next couple quarters.

Bill Keitel

Analyst

Yes, the 19 is based on our current estimate for the CDMA unit market for here the latter part of calendar 2008, divide it by 52 and that is what we see as a week's equivalent. Then for the 14 weeks, again, that would be now our calendar 2009 unit estimate, divide by 52, and that would be a week's equivalent. Our MSM are just a piece of that total channel.

Operator

Operator

James Faucette from Pacific Crest, please go ahead with your question.

James Faucette

Analyst

Thank you very much. Looking at your unit forecasts for next year, I was wondering if the growth that you have built in there, if that anticipates now the granting of 3G licenses, because I did not see whether those that had been specifically excluded for China are the granting of those licenses? Then the second question that I had was if you would give a little color as to the last few weeks, how the cuts and indications of inventory reduction have been communicated to you? Has it been all at once by all of your customers or has it been in specific geographies? Any color you can give on the nature of those cuts recently would be very helpful. Thank you.

Paul Jacobs

Analyst

We have put some units in for China, razing it off of some estimates that operators have made. We are anticipating that 3G licenses will be granted relatively soon. So, we did make the decision this year to put some units in for China that we had not in the past.

Steve Mollenkopf

Analyst

This is Steve. With regard to your question about the change in customer behavior related to the inventory contraction, it is really something that started happening, I would say, in the last several weeks and consistent with our belief that this is highly dependent on what the OEM is thinking of and how they want to manage the economic environment. It varies a bit across customers. So, we have seen some variation across customers and certainly accelerating over the last several weeks. Recently, and when I say recently, meaning over the last several days, I think we have seen a reduction in the rate of change of that forecast and consistent with our guidance. We have actually opened up the number of units to allow for a little bit more uncertainty than normal, but I think we have a lot of confidence actually that what we gave is a reasonable outlook. Operator: Tim Luke from Barclays Capital. Please go ahead with your question.

Tim Luke -Barclays Capital

Analyst

Thanks so much, Bill and Steve. With respect to the guidance that you gave, the chip units came down 30% and the WCDMA forecast is up like almost 40% for the year. Can you give us some color on regionally where you are seeing the biggest delta in terms of this substantial change in channel inventory that you outlined? Then can you give us some flavor of, to get to that 370, what you are assuming in terms of the regional change in the WCDMA market? There is the question on seasonality as part of that. Steve, do you think this is the low in the chip number and then March is slightly up from here? Thanks.

Bill Keitel

Analyst

Tim, this is Bill. I will try and take part of those questions here. First, we have provided an update on the calendar 2008. I just did a summary in my remarks. On our website, we have updated it by region of the world. As I said, we have brought down our estimate of the replacement rate just slightly. Previously, we had been looking for a 43% replacement rate for 2008. We have updated that now down to 42%. Then as we always do, we have got a pretty thorough process of trying to check region-by-region on net adds and as well as new subs. We have brought down Europe modestly. You will see that on our website. We brought down also the Americas by just a couple of units. China, I think we have all seen that on an interim basis here that with the transition coming up here from China Unicom CDMA to China Telecom, there has been a defocus on growing that CDMA base. So, we brought down China a bit. India, we brought down slightly as well as the greater Asia Pacific. Each of those, again, are detailed on our website, so you will be able to get that. In terms of the WCDMA market growing and our chipset forecast here for Q1 having a fairly significant decrease, it is simply that right now the market, be it operators and/or OEMs, they think they have got enough chipsets to satisfy a lot of their needs, and they are looking to reduce those. So, our rate of flow into the OEMs we think is going to reduce here relative to the past for the next two quarters. So, it is a little difficult to exactly trace our estimated shipments into the end market. If we are right here that this inventory contraction is pretty severe, it is going to curve for the next two quarters. Operator: Mike Walkley from Piper Jaffrey. Please go ahead with your question.

Mike Walkley

Analyst

Great. Thank you. Bill, just another question on the trajectory of the recovery; should we assume in the back half of '09 back to normal builds that QCT margins would be within that historical 25% and a little bit higher range that is embedded in your guidance? Can you just help clarify that?

Bill Keitel

Analyst

I think that obviously for the first fiscal quarter here, our forecast is an abnormally low operating margin for QCT. Our best estimate at this time is the second half of the fiscal year returns to what I think we will consider a more normalized level.

Mike Walkley

Analyst

Thanks. Then in terms of not losing share, could you discuss some areas or OEM GCUs potential share gains over the next year or two?

Steve Mollenkopf

Analyst

Well, this is Steve. I think we had a number of positive moves in the last year, adding Sony Ericsson as a customer for a portion of the portfolio. We started to add some volume out of Motorola. I think as we have discussed on previous calls, we think that the addressable market to the chipset business has actually increased primarily as a result of the settlement of the Nokia licensing deal between the two companies. I think it is much too early to make a statement with regard to how that is going to impact our financials, but we definitely see a difference in terms of the way we look at the market after that event.

Operator

Operator

David Wong from Wachovia, please go ahead with your question.

David Wong

Analyst

Thank you very much. Can you give us some idea as to how the pattern of chipset shipments will affect your gross margins? Presumably, your gross margins are better in the first half of the fiscal year because of lower chipset shipments, and then they get pulled down in the second half, because your chipset shipments rebound or there is something else also impact margins?

Steve Mollenkopf

Analyst

Well, it is primarily just, David, that in the first half of the year, there is just a sudden reduction here in the run rate on our revenues as to relative to what we expect in the second half of the fiscal year. As we explained, we have carefully gone through our resource levels, the programs we are investing in, and concerning our op expenses, we tried to carefully target them to where we want to be two, three years from now. So, the operating expenses continue. The revenues are having a sudden decrease here for the next two quarters. Hence, the operating margins for the next two quarters will be abnormally low.

David Wong

Analyst

Yes, but I am referring to the blended gross margin. Does that get that benefit from a lower mix of chipsets, does it?

Steve Mollenkopf

Analyst

There is the mix of licensing revenue to chip revenue will certainly adjust here for the next two quarters. And, yes, that would favorably impact the gross margin for the next two quarters.

Operator

Operator

Ed Snyder from Charter Equity Research, please go ahead with your question.

Mike Alexander

Analyst

This is Mike Alexander in for Ed Snyder. I wanted to ask if you could give a little more color on the replacement rate for 2009. Do you have any geographic idea where replacements are going to be falling and maybe some idea of the mix of new subscribers into the developing world? Thank you.

Bill Keitel

Analyst

Mike? At this point, we are planning to give more color on replacement rates next week in New York. So, there are regional differences and quite significant, and we thought it best to share that when we get to New York. Paul, do you want to add anything?

Paul Jacobs

Analyst

Yes, I think that I teed this one up on CNBC. I will maybe just make a comment. I mean one of the things that we see happening, for example, in Japan, is that the operators are moving to installment programs which have proved to be extremely popular with consumers. That is causing people to hold the handsets a little bit longer. The interesting offsetting fact, though, is it looks like people are willing to buy slightly higher priced handset for that. So there are some puts and takes relative to that, but we are seeing some impact there. I would say it is less the macroeconomic conditions than it is been just a different business model by the operators.

Mike Alexander

Analyst

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Brian Modoff from Deutsche Bank, please go ahead with your question.

Brian Modoff

Analyst

Hi. just an understanding, Bill, on this accounting for the one-time payment and the amortization of the patents, does that mean those are canceling each other off? Does that necessarily mean that we are just really factoring the ongoing payment as a net incremental gain to your numbers going forward? Then, Paul, on the regional basis, have you seen a material change in demand from some of the emerging markets in the last few weeks that have created more concern for you? Then finally, Steve, can you give us an idea of what you think you will have in terms of designs in '09 for Snapdragon and the 7000-series platform. Thanks.

Bill Keitel

Analyst

So, Brian, this is Bill. To your question on the Nokia amortization, you are correct. The amortization of the $2.5 billion is what will positively contribute to earnings. The amortization of the patent intangible will not contribute to earnings going forward.

Paul Jacobs

Analyst

Yes, I think obviously there is a minor question in India, also just the timing of the transition and the re-energization in China of sales of CDMA. As we look forward into the next year, we are seeing more trend towards emerging markets as opposed to away from emerging markets.

Steve Mollenkopf

Analyst

Brian, this is Steve. On the 7000 platform and Snapdragon platform, in terms of customer traction, let me just start with the 8000 first and the Snapdragon platform first. We are still on track for our first devices in mid year next year and starting to build throughout the year. It will not be a significant number in terms of next year, but it is definitely consistent with what we see with the launch of a new chipset family. As I mentioned earlier, we are starting to see traction in the OEM base or in customer base outside of our traditional customers, which we are pleased with, and we are going to talk a little bit more about that next week. On the 7000 platform, we continue to believe that integration strategy is really the key to driving mass market OpenLS phones into the market, and we are seeing I think traction consistent with that. It is really driven primarily by our close association with some of the software houses as well. So, we have had a significant amount of interest in the Android platform as well as continued interest with our Win Mobile devices.

Operator

Operator

Kulbinder Garcha from Credit Suisse, please go ahead with your question.

Kulbinder Garcha

Analyst

Thanks. Just two very quick questions. On the inventory level (inaudible) by the end of this depletion, am I understanding that it is the lowest level that they have been in the last three or five years? Then for Paul, with respect to the lack of visibility, lack of economic uncertainty, revenue is expected to decline. I understand when you look at your annualized in the run rate at the end of '08, I am surprised a more meaningful action has not been taken? Actually how OpEx rise 10%, but you are down, and I am wondering how you think about if things do worsen from here, whether Qualcomm could take a more meaningful approach towards its cost base? Thanks.

Bill Keitel

Analyst

First, on the inventory weeks, there was a time in just a specific segment of the market, not the worldwide market as we forecast now, that we did see a dip below 14 weeks, but the variety of devices that the market was demanding at that time was significantly different than what it is today. So, in our analysis, we used it, but the comparability was not that direct. Overall, I would say 14 weeks is abnormally low, but we have seen when people try and correct inventories as we see many trying to do, they often get to a bit of an abnormal level. So we thought it was the prudent forecast to use.

Paul Jacobs

Analyst

In terms of expense management, obviously we are very focused on that and definitely are adapting to the current environment and essentially shutting down headcount growth. There are a lot of opportunities ahead of us with a number of new technologies coming to market. So we think that we are making the right investments where we generally would have added headcount to go after those, so we are making hard decisions to shut some projects down and reallocate resources. Clearly, if conditions worsen from here, we have contingency plans, and we have gone through and prioritized projects. We will continue that process. So, I think that we will be able to adapt. I do not feel like looking at a two quarter impact because of inventory contraction and then potentially damaging our ability to react coming out of the downturn, because we feel like as a market leader, we actually are well positioned to have a better competitive position coming out of the downturn. With that said, we are very focused on expense management over the past few years. We know that we have grown fairly rapidly into the opportunities, and we are looking for much more leverage this year, while still addressing these very significant opportunities ahead of us.

Operator

Operator

And, ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the allotted time for questions and answers. Dr. Jacobs, do you have any closing remarks you would like to make?

Paul Jacobs

Analyst

Yes. Just to follow on to that, I mean while these macroeconomic conditions are impacting the business looking forward, I feel like we are adapting and positioning ourselves for future growth. We have this very strong balance sheet and very strong operating cash flows, and that is allowing us to address a bunch of opportunities that are in front of us. The market for 3G CDMA continues to grow, I might add, at the expense of 2G. We are continuing to expand the functionality of wireless devices and the uses of wireless technology. So, I really do feel that in challenging times, market leaders can strengthen their position. We intend to do that in these times. I look forward to seeing everybody next week in New York, and thanks very much for being on the call today.

Operator

Operator

And, ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. We would like to thank you for your participation and ask that you now disconnect.