Rob Lynch
Analyst · BTIG. Your line is open
Thank you, Steve and good morning everyone. Papa John’s continued its turnaround in the fourth quarter delivering a second consecutive quarter of positive accelerating sales by executing against our focused priorities. Comp sales rose 3.5% in North America and 2.4% across international last quarter. Higher comp sales and unit growth drove a 5% increase in Q4 revenue and adjusted earnings per share of $0.37 compared to $0.18 a year ago. Long-term drivers of our business, including unit level profitability also continue to improve meaningfully as I will discuss in a moment. On the Q3 earnings call, my first at Papa John’s, we set a course to move the company forward and build on our strengths. We renewed our focus on Papa John’s purposes which I will reiterate here. We love pizza. Pizza brings us all together. The world deserves better pizza and we deliver it. This purposes our guiding path moving forward. That path will be paved by our company’s values, culture and strategic priorities. We are laser focused on delivering positive results in the short-term, but even more importantly, building sustainable, long-term value for our shareholders, franchisees, team members in the communities that we serve. It’s a credit to the hard work and dedication of our team members in franchisees as well as their energy and commitment around our new priorities that we were able to finish 2019 so strong and begin 2020 with great momentum. As we announced this morning and will discuss more fully in a moment, our 2020 plan is for positive full year North America comp sales between 2.5% and 5%. The midpoint of this range would represent our best performance in North America since 2015. We expect international comp sales to grow between 1.5% and 4% as we see strong growth globally somewhat mitigated by the impact of coronavirus in China. Strong comp sales will further benefit unit level profitability both for company owned and franchisee restaurants. Combined with the global unit growth forecast of 100 to 140 net new restaurants, Papa John’s 2020 plan will deliver the company’s best top line growth in several years. Our plan also achieves the strongest earnings in 3 years with full year adjusted earnings per share between $1.35 and $1.55 compared to $1.17 just 1 year ago. As you can see, we expect 2020 to be a great year for Papa John’s and the beginning of a bright future. Let me begin our 2020 discussion with what we are doing to drive long-term sustainable growth in comp sales, the number one driver for our business. Since arriving at the company, my mandate for Papa John’s product and marketing team has been simple, innovate and build on Papa John’s premium differentiated brand. And they are delivering fending off competitive value platforms without us having to deeply discount. In November, we launched garlic Parmesan crust. This was the first time we have innovated on our amazing fresh dough and are incredibly excited about the possibilities here. We fundamentally believe that increasing awareness of our product quality with our dough as the star of the show is the key to our success. Many of our customers and prospective customers still don’t know that our original dough is always fresh, never frozen, made with six simple ingredients and then it contains no artificial colors or flavors. People have never cared more about what goes into their food and with our product we have a right to win now more than ever. One way to increase the awareness of our brand benefits and points of differentiation is through our advertising. As you know, Shaquille O'Neal and his better day communications have had a very positive impact on our brand. We will continue to highlight him as a board member, storeowner and lover of all things Papa John’s. In addition, we also launched a new ad campaign in Q4 called Pizza It that focuses directly on our food. In it, we celebrate the pure joy of pizza by filming our food in ways that we never have before. We believe that by making our food the hero of our communications we will distance ourselves from our competition. And it’s working. Garlic Parmesan crust has been a success, helping drive solid comp sales last quarter and delivering profitability back to our restaurants and franchisees. Earlier this month, we introduced Papadias, a toasted handheld alternative to sandwiches, made with our fresh, never frozen dough and other high quality ingredients for just $6. Again, we are leveraging advertising that brings Papa John’s food to life and establishes a distinct unexpected voice for the brand. We have done extensive testing and Papadias is our compelling new product in and of themselves, but they are also a strategic choice to drive additional transactions, incremental profits and improve labor efficiencies during the lunchtime day part without cannibalizing our core products are diluting our premium value proposition at dinner. I would add that Papadias mark another innovation milestone for Papa John’s, our first new holistic platform that doesn’t consist of pizza, sides or desserts. Expect continued innovation to be a key part of our 2020 product and marketing plan proves that a new culture of innovation is taking hold at Papa John’s. We now encourage and embrace ideas that build on our core differentiated brand proposition and product quality. Papa John’s momentum around product and marketing also reflects changes in our organization. Under the streamlined management structure that we implemented in November, our new Chief Commercial and Marketing Officer, Max Wetzel, now oversees marketing, menu strategy, product innovation and customer experience. The holistic view and integrated execution provided by Max and his team are already facilitating faster, smarter decision-making. In Max’s first few months with the company, he and his team have been focused on three key initiatives. First, we are getting more productivity out of our media spend. As a challenger brand, it is imperative that we maximize the value of our media dollars so that they work harder for us as we are outspent 5 to 1 by our largest competitor. We have already identified multiple opportunities to create efficiencies and optimize our media investment and we are deriving the benefits of that improved plan. Second, Max and his team are building out our social media capabilities to maximize the brand’s influence across our social media channels. We are moving to an always-on model and developing engaging creative that is native to each platform. For example, we have recently executed a robust Snapchat partnership for Valentine’s Day which is one of our biggest sales days of the year. And lastly, we are optimizing our e-commerce platform so that we could unlock the full potential of the great assets that we have already built like our loyalty program which is an untapped opportunity with over 14 million members. Next, I would like to discuss what we are doing to improve unit economics. As I have said, our brand cannot succeed and grow long-term if our franchisees are not profitably growing their businesses. While unit economics have been challenged by lower sales over the past 2 years, we are starting to reverse that trend. Last quarter, median profitability for traditional franchises improved both sequentially and versus a year ago. We also achieved our lowest level of closures among our traditional franchisees since mid 2017. I am confident that we have even more opportunity. Our We Win Together investment of $18 million in marketing and financial support for domestic franchisees during 2019 and 2020 has helped our system weather the storm of lower sales. As this program tapers down and concludes this year, we expect rising comp sales and productivity initiatives to improve profitability and in turn support our franchisees’ long-term health and sustained investment in the brand and their businesses. In addition and under the leadership of Jim Norberg, Chief Operating Officer of North America, we have accelerated multiple initiatives to improve efficiencies and quality in company and franchise restaurants. For example, we have green lit a rollout of Papa Call, our centralized order taking system and customer service center across company restaurants. This will be completed by the end of Q2. Extensive testing indicates this should have a meaningful impact driving incremental transactions and increasing restaurant efficiencies as well as improving our customers’ ordering experience. Our franchisee rollout is planned for the back half of 2020. Thirdly, in addition to being an increasingly important channel to reach customers, our partnerships with top third-party aggregators in the U.S. will also support unit economics driving profitable, incremental transactions in markets where our restaurants are driver constrained. We are seeing strong results and we will have the top three aggregators integrated into our system-wide point-of-sale platform by the end of Q2. And lastly, we have identified a number of opportunities to reduce other costs, which we are actively pursuing this year. These include, but are not limited to reducing auto and general insurance costs by leveraging our partnership with Drivosity, our driver tracking technology to reduce auto claims. Building an indirect procurement team to drive savings across our non-food and packaging spend and more efficiently utilizing our labor, which we continue to improve in 2019 despite rising wages and a very tight labor market. Next, I would like to discuss how we are moving forward to continue to deliver strong long-term unit growth. I am very excited to have Amanda Clark joining the executive leadership as Papa John’s new Chief Development Officer. Amanda comes to us from Taco Bell where she was Executive Vice President of restaurant experience. In her role there, she oversaw the entire customer experience of Taco Bell’s 7,000 restaurants, including design, consumer-facing technology, merchandising, customer marketing, new concepts and company development. Before that, she also served as Senior Vice President, North America Development and General Manager of Taco Bell Canada. I had the pleasure of working with Amanda at both Taco Bell and Procter & Gamble and she is a talented and proven addition to our team. Amanda will oversee global development for Papa John’s driving us towards our unit targets for 2020 and beyond. Over the coming months, she will partner with International Chief Operating Officer, Jack Swaysland and North America COO, Jim Norberg to develop long-term strategies that build on our improving sales and unit economics to achieve significant long-term unit growth. In fact, I believe that we have significant new unit potential, both domestically and internationally. Last year, we opened 233 international units bringing our total number of open units to over 2,100 stores across 48 countries outside of the U.S., including Portugal and Pakistan which we entered last year. This asset-light pure franchising business also continues to generate steadily growing operating income, $19 million in 2019, up from $14 million the prior year. Looking forward, Jack Swaysland recently reorganized the international operations team to improve support for our franchisees. We have evolved our strategy to better support markets where we have a strong presence, while also ensuring that we have resources to target those geographies where we see the greatest long-term opportunities. We expect these changes to lead to improved unit economics and accelerated unit growth outside the U.S. With 1,000 units in our development pipeline and significantly more wide space for expansion than our competitors, Papa John’s international future is bright. Now, I would like to turn to profitability and our outlook for 2020 and beyond. In addition to top line growth, we are advancing multiple opportunities to improve margins and drive operating leverage for accelerated earnings growth over the next several years. We are focused on three primary opportunities. First, we have made changes to our restaurant operations, supply chain and technology support teams to align with our strategic priorities that we announced back in November. This begins the journey to optimize our support structure and costs. Second, as our turnaround progresses, we are focusing our overhead spending more on sales drivers and less on consulting, legal and other administrative fees related to the challenges of the past couple of years. Thirdly, Shane Hutchins, our Chief Supply Chain Officer, is leading a number of initiatives within his organization to create efficiencies, including optimizing route designs to better utilize drivers and equipment, shifting operating schedules across quality control centers to streamline cost, and implementing new driver staffing strategies to lower turnover and the overall cost of delivery. These and other efficiency driving measures will continue to reduce operating cost in our supply chain. Thanks to these optimizations which more than offset an expected return to normalized levels of incentive compensation. We expect to decrease G&A spending year-over-year in 2020 for the first time in 3 years. Now, I would like to conclude with our progress building a culture of leaders who believe in diversity, inclusion and winning. This is an area where the company has been making progress for the past 18 months and it underpins absolutely everything we are doing to build the world’s best pizza company, including our ability to innovate, to engage our customers, to reduce turnover and to improve efficiencies. I am proud of our team, including the leadership of Chief People and Diversity Officer, Marvin Boakye and Senior Vice President, Communications and Corporate Affairs, Madeline Chadwick for so many achievements in 2019. These achievements include our partnership with Purdue University to offer first-of-its-kind to wishing benefits to all of our employees; our partnership, with Shaquille O'Neal as board member, franchisee, and brand ambassador; the launch of Papa John’s foundation for building community, our inaugural day of service with the Boys and Girls Clubs of America; and the development of a culture, where everyone belongs through the creation and growth of multiple employee resource groups. I’d like to specifically recognize our LGBTQ employee resource group. As a result of their leadership and hard work, Papa John’s recently earned a 90% score on the 2020 corporate quality index for our corporate policies and practices related to LGBTQ workplace equality. This was actually the first year Papa John’s was ranked in the survey and we scored higher than all of our competitors in the pizza category and higher than most in the restaurant industry. Creating a culture of leaders who believe in inclusivity, diversity and winning means that team members at every level in our organization are empowered to bring ideas that make Papa John’s a great place to work and that drive our business forward. On a related note, we look forward to publishing our First Sustainability Report in April, which will highlight a number of initiatives underway to help make Papa John a good steward of our resources in our communities and the environment. In summary, 2020 is shaping up to be a very positive year for Papa John’s. We will continue on four fronts: the first, delivering comp sales growth through product and marketing innovation; second, improving unit economics at company and franchisee restaurants; third, becoming more efficient and productive, which will drive corporate margin expansion and accelerated profit growth; and fourth, building an inclusive winning culture for our team members to be proud of. Now, I will ask Joe Smith to address our financial results in the fourth quarter and fiscal year.