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Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 5, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Please stand by, we're about to begin. Good day, and welcome to today's Quanta Services' Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, it's my pleasure to turn the conference over to your host for today's call, Kip Rupp. Please go ahead.

Kip A. Rupp - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Great. Thank you, Jason, and welcome, everyone, to the Quanta Services' conference call to review third quarter 2015 results. Before I turn the call over to management, I have the normal housekeeping details to run through. If you would like to have Quanta news releases and other information e-mailed to you when they occur, please sign up for e-mail information alerts by going to the Investors and Media section of the Quanta Services website at quantaservices.com. You can also access Quanta's latest earnings release and other investor materials such as press releases, SEC filings, presentations, videos, audiocasts, conference calls, and stock price information with the Quanta Services Investor Relations app, which is available for iPhone, iPad, and Android mobile devices for free at Apple's App Store and at Google Play. A replay of today's call will be available on Quanta's website at quantaservices.com. In addition, a telephonic recorded instant replay will be available for the next seven days, 24 hours a day, that can be accessed as set forth in the press release. Please remember that information reported on this call speaks only as of today, November 5, 2015. And therefore, you are advised that any time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate as of the time of any replay of this call. This conference call will include forward-looking statements intended to qualify under the Safe Harbor from liability established by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements include all statements reflecting Quanta's expectations, intentions, assumptions or beliefs about future events or performance, or that do not solely relate to historical or current facts. Forward-looking statements involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict or are beyond Quanta's control, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. For additional information concerning some of the risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could affect Quanta's forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014, and its other documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which may be obtained on Quanta's website or through the SEC's website at sec.gov. Management cautions that you should not place undue reliance on Quanta's forward-looking statements, and Quanta does not undertake and disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements based on new information, future events or otherwise, and disclaims any written or oral statements made by any third party regarding the subject matter of this call. With that, I would like to now turn the call over to Mr. Jim O'Neil, Quanta's President and CEO. Jim?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Thank you, Kip, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Quanta Services' third quarter 2015 earnings conference call. I will start the call with an operational overview, before turning it over to Derrick Jensen, Quanta's Chief Financial Officer, who'll provide a detailed review of our third quarter results. Following Derrick's comments, we will welcome your questions. The third quarter results that were reported this morning were consistent with the revised and preliminary expectations that were announced on October 16. While our results for the third quarter and first nine months of this year had been below our expectations, we expect improved financial performance in 2016, largely due to record backlog at the end of the third quarter, primarily driven by mainline pipe project additions. Before I provide additional commentary on 2016, I will start with some color about our third quarter results and fourth quarter expectations. There were several factors that adversely affected our third quarter results, the most impactful of which was the margin pressure in the Electric Power segment. As we discussed last quarter, large transmission projects in the United States and Canada have experienced significant delays. These delays have led to increasingly competitive smaller transmission market because of excess transmission construction resources in the industry. We believe some competitors are more aggressively pursuing work volume to absorb fixed cost. We underestimated the impact of this dynamic on our ability to secure additional work to efficiently transition resources from larger projects to smaller projects. Because much of the smaller transmission work is book-and-burn, and may not hit backlog, this dynamic had a larger impact and is geographically broader than we anticipated. Additionally, the mix of transmission work has shifted to a greater percentage of smaller projects. Production on smaller projects is less efficient than large projects due to the…

Derrick A. Jensen - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Today we announced revenues of $1.94 billion for the third quarter of 2015, compared to $2.15 billion in the prior year's third quarter. Net income from continuing operations attributable to common stock was $43.2 million or $0.23 per diluted share. These results compared to net income from continuing operations attributable to common stock of $87.9 million or $0.40 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2014. Net income attributable to common stock for the third quarter of 2014 was negatively impacted by a $32.3 million net-of-tax charge, or $0.15, to provision for long-term contract receivables associated with change orders on the 2012 Electric Power transmission project that were ultimately settled earlier this year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations, as presented in today's press release, was $0.30 for the third quarter of 2015, as compared to $0.58 for the third quarter of 2014. Net income attributable to common stock for the quarter was $216.4 million or $1.15 per diluted share. This compares to $94.6 million or $0.43 per diluted share in the third quarter of last year. Included in net income attributable for common stock and net income from discontinued operations for the third quarter of 2015 was an approximate $171 million net gain, or $0.91 per diluted share, associated with the sale of our fiber optic licensing operations, which was completed on August 4, 2015 and resulted in net after-tax proceeds of approximately $848 million. The decrease in consolidated revenues in the third quarter of 2015 as compared to the same quarter last year is primarily due to a decrease in revenues from our large electric transmission and mainline pipe project, which were adversely impacted by reduced customer spending and delays in project timing due to regulatory and permitting issues.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we'll take our first question from Dan Mannes with Avondale Partners.

Daniel Mannes - Avondale Partners LLC

Analyst

Hey. Good morning, everyone.

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Good morning, Dan.

Derrick A. Jensen - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Good morning, Dan.

Daniel Mannes - Avondale Partners LLC

Analyst

Hey. First, thanks for the color on the ASR. I think that clears things up pretty nicely. But I did want to focus on the electric business, obviously. You've been in more competitive environments. You've dealt with small project work before and have a lot of experience. I guess my question is, given the current environment, how much of the recent results relate to, maybe, the transitory effect of dealing with the transition versus what the correct run-rate margin should be if this were the environment you knew you were going to be participating in? So basically, can you just help us out with where you could get to if, if the current environment persists, what do you think you could manage margins to, relative to the fixed math you've been putting up recently?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Well, I think, Dan, that's a very good question and there's a couple of factors there. One, I want to reiterate that there's no reason why we couldn't operate with the current level of business at a 10% operating margin. But you bring up a good point, I mean, we've got transition going – one of the major things that's occurring is we had a significant amount of transmission resources in the industry working on large projects. They've flooded the market. I think it took everybody in the industry by surprise, is the impact that it had on the smaller transmission market. So, right now, we do have an oversupply of labor. The market's become more competitive. We can deal with that. We need to keep a level of large transmission resources to capitalize on projects we see on the horizon. But if that didn't happen, hypothetically, we could certainly adjust our cost structure to get back into the 10% range. So we're in a very fluid market right now, and we're evaluating it almost every day. But I do think that we're at some point of stabilizing the business, and now we'll just adjust going forward as the market begins to develop, especially in the large transmission arena.

Daniel Mannes - Avondale Partners LLC

Analyst

Got it. And then, transitioning over to the Oil and Gas business, your commentary has been fairly consistent with what we've heard in the market and your peers as it relates to large work coming in. Can you talk to us, and I know this is a challenging topic, about the capacity you guys can bring to bear for next year? Where you guys are in terms of utilization, if booked and expected projects lay out? And how much more you could even conceivably do next year on the mainline front?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Well, I think utilization is based off on how the projects lay out, right? So we don't have a real clear picture of that right now, because it's early. I mean, you get a $400 million mainline project that could last four months, versus a $400 million electric transmission project which could last a year and a half. So, it depends upon how the projects lay out. I will tell you that we believe that we've got plenty of utilization to take care of the work that we have been backlogged, that we plan to go to 2016, off of – excuse me – plenty of resource capacity to handle the work we have in backlog in 2016 and the work that we're continuing to negotiate for 2016. So, it's very similar to electric transmission when it ramped up in 2011. I mean, we were on three jobs and we ended up doing about five times that much in a period of two years. So, we'll be able to – we're prepared and ready to take on as much work as we can at our margin profile.

Daniel Mannes - Avondale Partners LLC

Analyst

Sounds good. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

And as a reminder, in the interest of time today, we do ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. We'll take our next question from Andy Wittmann at Robert W. Baird & Company. Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Hi. So, I guess in the script, you guys commented that you felt like the pipeline business – a couple of things need to break your way, that it would be up in 2016? I don't know if I caught a similar comment on T&D with some of the puts-and-takes that are going on there now. Jim, I guess, what's the net outlook as you're heading into 2016 on the T&D side?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Andy, I think that's a good question. I mean, I would tell you that right now distribution in the smaller transmission market has a growth feel to it. There's thousands of projects there in any given quarter, and it's been pretty predictable over the last four years, and I don't expect that that dynamic's going to change. The large transmission market is what, obviously, is a wild card. We don't have a real good feel as to when those projects will get through the permitting process and move to construction. So, do we think some projects are going to move into construction to 2016? We do. But it's hard to pinpoint. So it's hard to tell what the segment's is going to do overall. I do think that both segments, as I said in my script, have the opportunity for growth next year, and I do think 2015 is a transition year for the Electric Power segment. But I can't really give any color as to big transmission right now; it's early. And certainly with what's happened over the last several quarters, I'm going to – time is my friend and I want to wait until February before I provide some real, specific color on the large transmission market dynamic. Andrew John Wittmann - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Appreciate those perspectives. And then, Derrick, I guess a question a lot of investors are looking at right now is what kinds of things can you do from a process perspective, as you look at results coming in during the quarter, to avoid some of the surprises that we've seen in the last couple – are there systems, processes, communication and things that need to be happening inside the company to head off some of the surprises that we've seen in the last couple of quarters?

Derrick A. Jensen - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Well, I mean when you think about the first half of the year, a substantial portion in the first half of the year was a weather dynamic. And we're not necessarily weather forecasters, and those things will – any major weather event will impact us throughout, despite our best efforts to forecast. In addition, a couple of those things that happened in the first half of the year were very, very one-off projects, specific-type items. If you recall, we talked about the cumulative effect of a couple of those jobs was about $50 million. Although very sizable, it was isolated to the one or two individual jobs rather than being something having to do with the overall forecasting process. As it relates to the third quarter, we started to see some degree of softness in much of the things that Jim has talked about. But what we, in our minds, we needed to look to see exactly how those things played out and make a determination as to what was there from the standpoint of contingencies on remaining projects and how those would execute through, et cetera, relative to being able to establish what we really felt like what was occurring here in the third quarter. So, I think that the third quarter is unique versus what the dynamics were in the first and the second quarter. But again, to your point, we will always be mindful of what information we gather in here and how that we can digest it in a way to ensure that our forecasts in the future continue to better align with our real expectations.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Tahira Afzal at KeyBanc.

Tahira Afzal - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Hi, folks, and Jim, nice to see at least some stability returning.

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Thank you, Tahira.

Tahira Afzal - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

So, I guess the first question is, Andrew asked about the revenues and where those could swing on the electric T&D side. So, let me get on the other side and ask, would you at least see backlog growth very constant about that for electric T&D in total?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

My views on backlog are unchanged from past years, past quarters and years. I mean, I think backlog will continue to be strong. I'm not going to say we're going to have record levels every quarter that we've seen this quarter. But it's going to be strong, and that's an indication of the multiyear outlook we have in the business. So, look, I'm very confident about 2016. I think 2016 is going to be a very good year. 2015 was an anomaly. It happened. We're not happy with it, but we've got some really good things going in 2016 and in both the Electric Power and on the Oil and Gas segments. So I think 2016 backlog should be strong. Going into 2016, I think these big transmission projects will break through and we'll get back to some level of normalcy in what we've seen over the last few years. We're just in a pause right now, but I'm very confident about 2016 and, frankly, the next several years over a multi-year basis. I think we've just had an adjustment in the market and we're ready to move forward again. And 2016 is going to be definitely a better year than 2015, in my opinion.

Tahira Afzal - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. Okay, Jim. That's helpful. And then, second question is more thematic. Over the past several months, we've seen several utilities buying gas distribution companies. I know you do some integrity work on the gas side. We always focused on your large pipe and gathering shale activity on the pipeline side. But are you watching what's happening in terms of M&A there? And does that present an opportunity for yourselves?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Well, we've predicted that there was going to be a convergence of both the electric power and natural gas companies. We expected that. I mean, one of the primary drivers there is the coal-to-gas switching and the need for significant natural gas infrastructure to feed these power plants, which is one of the big growth drivers on mainline pipe. And certainly it's an opportunity for our customers on the electric side who have to ensure reliable power delivery that those pipeline systems are within their control. So, yes, we're seeing some convergence of those industries in our customer base, and we have been positioning our company to take advantage of that by having the diversity to serve both the electric power and oil and gas segments. And I think it can't do anything but help us down the road, from a strategic standpoint, as our customers are looking to contractors like Quanta to provide a broader solution to them across their entire portfolio.

Tahira Afzal - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

All right. Thanks a lot, Jim.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Matt Duncan at Stephens.

Matt Duncan - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning, guys.

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Hey, Matt.

Matt Duncan - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Jim, I'm going to kind of, sort of try to get a view on 2016 from a little bit different angle. If you were to not see any large electrical transmission projects awarded to you that you would begin work on next year, would you be able to grow that business on the top line, just based on the small to medium-sized projects that you're seeing, or would that be difficult to do without large projects?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

I think that would be difficult to do without large projects, if we didn't see any mainline – new transmission projects, I think we would probably have – it'd be flattish to slight negative. But I think the bottom line still could grow, particularly since we had some job issues and some weather issues in 2015. So, we got a pretty good comp against 2015 to grow the bottom line. So I think there's two different dynamics working there. We certainly feel confident that the bottom line can grow on 2016 over 2015 in the Electric Power segment.

Matt Duncan - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then in Oil and Gas, a couple of things. Can you give us a little bit of color on what types of projects you're seeing out there in the bid environment? Are you seeing the implied margins in these bids get any better as this market's beginning tighten? I mean, we're seeing good backlog growth across the industry. And given what you are expecting in mainline pipeline work, is it fair to say that that business ought to grow around 10% or perhaps better next year, given the sort of pace of backlog growth we're seeing out of you guys?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Yeah. I mean, I think if you look at backlog as a key indicator, you would expect that we would have a double-digit type growth on the top line if projects move through the permitting process as we expect. In order for it to have that material impact that we expect, mainline to have that material impact that we expect next year, I would expect that that you would have that type of growth profile. And we've talked about that in the past, we've talked about 2016, we would start seeing a material uptick in mainline pipe construction opportunities. As far as the margins, I think the margin profile is really driven a lot by the contract types and the strategic alliances that we have with many of our customers on mainline. We're building multi-year programs for them and the contractual relationship is different, and it's more of a shared risk and it's conducive to us having more stable margins in that sector. Certainly we have to execute, but I think it's more favorable for us in the industry. You'll see a better margin profile going forward.

Matt Duncan - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Yes, I think the margins that you guys said that segment can do are 9% to 12%. I'm assuming with the mix shifting back to mainline, you ought to be in that range next year?

Derrick A. Jensen - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Hey, Matt, this is Derrick. Yeah. I would tell you that thematically, you're – I wouldn't disagree with that. I think one of the main things that would probably get me pause is saying that's unique to next year – as we sit here today, as from a guidance perspective, and we'll be trying to address that clearly as we move forward into, as Jim said, a February timeframe when we give our ultimate guidance. But when we look at the last half of this year and push out at the mainline jobs, and you look at ultimately how our margins in the third quarter and kind of implied fourth quarter margins in that segment, you can see how those delays in projects can individually impact the margin profile. And so as we stand here today, as Jim had said on the timing of those awards and/or their actual permitting and moving to construction, to the extent that we see any of the latter half of next year get pushed at all, then you'd see some impact in that 9% to 12% dynamic. That's why at this stage, we're not quite at the spot of quantifying. But what I'd say is that, whether from a volume perspective, and if you look out over the multiple quarters exclusive of the finite 2016 period, then I'd say that we think that there's a volume of work there that should still allow us to overall operate at 9% to 12%. We're just not yet quantifying that to 2016 based upon that risk (49:57).

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Steven Fisher with UBS.

Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning.

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Good morning, Steve.

Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Good morning. I know you guys have been hesitant to let key resources go while big projects are still in the works. But what are you doing to improve your cost position and margins, particularly in electric? And I guess what timing would you have to see in terms of these big projects in order to make a decision to be more aggressive in cost actions?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

I don't want to give the impression that we haven't let anybody go. I mean, we've had some of our operating units adjusting costs in areas regionally that we have seen some softness. But it is imperative that we maintain some critical personnel and some specialized equipment to execute on these larger projects. It's a fluid situation, Steve. I can't give you a black and white answer that says that in January or March, if we don't see improvement, we're going to make some significant cuts. But I do want to reiterate that we understand where we need to be as a company and as a management team with our margin profile. And we will continue to be diligent on that, and evaluate the environment on a (51:20) basis and make the decisions when necessary. I think we said that the expectation is that we're going to have a better year in 2016 than we did in 2015, and we're going to have a better year in the Electric Power segment on the bottom line in 2016 than in 2015. So, there will have to be – either we're going to get mainline work or we're going to have to make some adjustments. So, it's – I mean, excuse me, large transmission work or make adjustments. But I can't put a time line on that.

Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And on the – sticking with the electric business, with revenues down 15% in the quarter, FX sounds like there was only about a 3% impact. So, still a double-digit decline. And I know, Jim, you really can't predict the large transmission project timing, and that's very fair. But are there any other things that you can see with high degree of confidence that will moderate that double-digit pace over the next few quarters, be it acquisitions or anything like that? And then if it's still a double-digit pace of decline, is that a scenario where you can still feel like you can grow your bottom line in Electric Power?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Well, I want to say that on the full year, we expect growth on an organic basis. As we go into the first half of next year, we have seasonality, for one thing. And I do expect that some of the fourth quarter dynamics will likely transition into the first part of next year. So we have large projects in backlog that we expect will accelerate or move into construction at some point in time during the year, I just don't want to predict right now when that's going to happen. But I do expect the Electric Power segment to perform better on the bottom line organically than what it has in 2015.

Steven Michael Fisher - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to William Bremer at Maxim Group.

William Bremer - Maxim Group LLC

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen, and appreciate the color.

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Good morning, Bill.

Derrick A. Jensen - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Hi, Bill.

William Bremer - Maxim Group LLC

Analyst

You mentioned – you called out integrity, and I'd like to go there first. Can you give us a sense, the master service agreements that are attached to that? What size – how many years do these contracts go out, and can you give us a sense of the top diameters that you're working with there, on these pipelines? That's the first question. Second, love to get an update on two markets that you didn't voice today, which would be Australia as well as Canada, and just give us a sense of what's happening there now, and the strategy going forward if they don't improve?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Yeah. Thank you, Bill. As far as the integrity work, the asset scenario, our business continues to grow. We continue to expand there. We do have master service agreements in place for several customers. They range from three to five years on average, the PG&E contract being kind of the flagship for that type of contract. The size of pipes range. They vary. You've got cast iron replacement programs, we've got some smaller diameter pipe, anywhere from 2-inch residential pipe programs to 42-inch mainline programs in rural – or municipal areas. So, the pipe sizes range the full gamut. As far as comments on Australia, I mean, Australia has been hit hard by the oil price and China's growth slowing, so the exports are less than what we anticipated when we first entered that market. But with that said, it's still an area that we are excited to be in on the ground floor, and we will continue to build that business over a multiyear basis. I think it's going to be important to Quanta five years from now, the contributions from Australia and other international areas like Canada and Latin America will be important five years from now. But we are going to see the Canadian – in Alberta – Alberta, Australia and the Gulf of Mexico have been impacted by the price of oil. I don't expect much more downturn in those areas. I think they've settled out. In fact, we are seeing some areas return to some level of growth as some of the competitors, the smaller competitors in those markets, have exited. But it's a real tough situation that we're monitoring. But any softness in those markets will certainly be made up by the mainline revenue that we expect to move to construction over the next several years.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to John Rogers at D.A. Davidson. John Bergstrom Rogers - D.A. Davidson & Co.: Hi. Good morning.

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Good morning, John.

Derrick A. Jensen - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Good morning, John. John Bergstrom Rogers - D.A. Davidson & Co.: Just a little more color, if I could, in terms of the T&D vertical, the electrical business. Jim, what's the margin that's in your backlog now, or directionally, versus what you've just seen? I mean, you're – and the confidence. I'm just trying to get to the confidence that it gets better next year, with or without those big transmission projects?

Derrick A. Jensen - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Yeah, John. Actually, it's Derrick. From a margin perspective in backlog on Electric Power, what I say is, we are going to have an online – a bit of pressure on those margins. It's not so much, though, from the standpoint of what we're doing from a bidding perspective. It's much of what we're seeing more from the standpoint of our expectations of the performance against that work, primarily from the dynamic of what Jim spoke about. We've got T&D resources from the large transmission work that have been moved over, and some of those resources are working on some of that smaller transmission work. And so, to that extent, as we think about how we expect that backlog to perform, arguably structurally, we have to believe that it's going to perform at a lower rate. That doesn't necessarily translate into our aspect of bidding it lower, but it's just that what we are saying now is that, based upon this performance, we're going to say that we think it'll currently execute at a slightly lower rate. John Bergstrom Rogers - D.A. Davidson & Co.: Okay. That's very helpful. And then, just on the pipeline side, or the Oil and Gas side of the business, can you give us – because it sounds like – I mean, we're going to take another step down in margins here, before they recover. And how much excess overhead are you carrying there now? Or maybe another way to ask it is, what's your capacity to do work in that segment?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Well, certainly, our fixed costs in the Oil and Gas segment have continued to increase, because we've got to prepare for this mainline pipe... John Bergstrom Rogers - D.A. Davidson & Co.: Right.

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

... expansion. So, there is some impact there, and that is a drag on margins, especially when we expected some of these programs to start in the fourth quarter of this year, and they've been pushed. So, now we've got so much work coming in 2016 that we're probably going to see some pushes, but we're still going to have probably a pretty nice uptick in revenues in that segment, with mainline contributions, even with pushes, because there's just so much work that's supposed to move the construction in 2016. You also have the Canadian dynamic with seasonality, and seasonality going on right now. So, you got to be prepared, because if the ground freezes, you're going to go work, and there's going to be a significant amount of it in Canada during this time of the year. If it doesn't, you're not going to mobilize. So, you've just got that dynamic going on. But we certainly have a higher fixed cost in that business today than we did last year, because you can't just turn the switch on and start working on the amount of mainline projects that we expect. You've got to prepare for that, and that takes time, and it costs money to do so.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Alex Rygiel with FBR Capital Market. Min Chung Cho - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Great. Good morning. This is Min Cho for Alex. Thanks for taking my question.

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Good morning, Min. Min Chung Cho - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Good morning. Given the uncertainty about some of the timing of the backlog and moving into construction phase, do you feel – I mean, how conservative is your 12-month backlog number? Is there still a certain amount of risk to that number?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Well, our backlog, we've been consistent the way we book backlog, and it's typically once we get it, executed, contract or some form of executed contract from the customer, it goes into backlog. So, I would say that the way we book backlog is very conservative, and I have not seen any fixed price contract that's gone into backlog, ever to my knowledge, get pulled out of backlog. I mean, once it's in backlog, it moves to construction. We've made MSA adjustments from time to time; back in 2008 and 2009, when we went into the banking crisis, we had to adjust MSAs and backlog. But as far as lump-sum fixed-price contracts, I would say that I'm very – with a high degree of confidence that if it hits backlog, it's going to construction. Min Chung Cho - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Right. I guess I'm concerned more with the 12-month backlog number, and the potential for push-outs of projects beyond that 12 months?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Well, okay. I understand. I think that, again, you're probably going to have pushes in 12-month backlog, because we've seen pushes over the last three to four years. And nothing's changed in that dynamic. But what's different is that there's going to be a significant amount of mainline work. I mean, we booked, as we talked today on the call, several billion dollars' worth of mainline projects, many of which will be moving to construction or planned to move to construction in 2016. Will you have some pushes in that backlog? Absolutely. I would say it's almost certain you're going to have some pushes. But with what's left that does go in 2016, it's still going to be material and more than what we've seen here in 2015. So – but we will have some pushes out of backlog. Min Chung Cho - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Okay.

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

There's no question in my mind that that'll happen. But it's not going to impact our excitement about what moves the revenue in 2016. Min Chung Cho - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Okay. That's fair. Also, I know you've been asked this question in the past and you've been fairly conservative about the opportunity in Mexico kind of for natural gas pipe. Any change in the strategy there?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

No. I mean, Mexico continues to be an area that we recognize there'll be significant amount of opportunities there. And it just depends upon our customer base, especially some of our key customers, whether they move down there and they want us to move with them in more of a collaborative partnership-type role. We continue to evaluate it, but it is a higher-risk area than Canada and the United States, for sure, and there's a lot of work for us to do here in Canada and the U.S. So we'll go to Mexico if we can mitigate the risk, or we'll evaluate going to Mexico if we can mitigate the risk. But right now, our opportunities are in Canada and in the U.S.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Jamie Cook at Credit Suisse. Ben E. Xiao - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi, good morning. This is actually Ben on for Jamie. So two questions for Derrick. First, I guess going back to the margins. I appreciate you can't quantify your expectations for 2016, but can you at least help us with your expectations by segment for Q4, just so we can get a better sense for run rate into 2016? And then second, just on the free cash flow. I mean, conversion's been pretty good year-to-date. I know it will come down in Q4, but how should we think about 2016, just because this mainline ramps up, I imagine more cash will be tied up in working capital?

Derrick A. Jensen - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Yeah. Actually, I'm starting with your last question. I think that's a fair assumption for 2016, exactly right. The mainline projects have a tendency to be fairly rapid ramp-ups and be sizable projects that happen over a short period of time. And so, depending on the timing of that, you can see a pretty substantial draw of that capital. And then from a timing perspective, then of course it depends on how much of that work is coming in the fourth quarter as to whether, if any of that gets pushed, whether that would turn into cash in 2016, or just continue to roll and maybe such that it goes into 2017. So I do believe it's a fair expectation that 2016 cash flow will be lower than 2015 cash flow. From a margin perspective on the fourth quarter, I can comment that I'd say Electric Power is probably going to be in or around the 7% or 8% range, we'll say, and in Oil and Gas because of timing it's probably going to be like in, say, the 4% to 5% range. One thing though, you made the comment about estimating a run rate for 2016. I don't know that I would be looking at those fourth quarter margins to be indicative of run rates, per se. One of the main things to recall, remember, is the seasonality aspect of the business. I mean, it's typical for our fourth quarter margins to drift based upon the lower revenues or weather dynamics and seasonality, let alone the fact of the impact of some of the mainline awards, et cetera. So that's kind of how the fourth quarter would lay out, but I'd be hesitant to say exactly how that's going to impact 2016 at this stage. Ben E. Xiao - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. Thanks a lot. Very helpful.

Derrick A. Jensen - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Sure.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Vishal Shah at Deutsche Bank.

Vish B. Shah - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. Jim, I apologize if this has been already asked, but could you maybe just talk about how you think the backlog is in terms of what percentage of your backlog has cleared permitting and how much still needs regulatory approval for 2016?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

It's in various stages, Vishal. I would say that once a project moves to backlog, in general, most of the permitting and siting has been done, and there's a path to construction. In other words, they see that they should be able to get through the remaining hurdles. Typically if projects are challenged to get permits, that they don't move to construction, typically, to the construction phase or to backlog. But I would say that, in general, there's a path to getting these projects fully permitted into construction, if they're in backlog.

Vish B. Shah - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

And what kind of visibility did you have in the large transmission side in terms of the permitting process? I mean, what are your customers telling you in terms of timelines, and how do you plan for that when you think about the workflows that you have on standby for some of those projects? Thank you.

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Well, I mean, I think that's an art more than a science. And we're in constant discussion with our customers, so we have a pretty good feel for when projects will move to construction. I mean, obviously, we've had some surprises, some of our customers – I mean, really, the overall profile on backlog, as far as projects moving from backlog to construction, hasn't changed. It's just that projects are bigger and cover longer distances in more populous areas, so it's just a little bit more of a sensitive process for our customers to get through. But we're certainly in constant communication with our customers and we try to plan our resources accordingly, to the best that we can.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Adam Thalhimer with BB&T Capital Markets. Adam Robert Thalhimer - BB&T Capital Markets: Hey. Good morning, guys.

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Good morning, Adam. Adam Robert Thalhimer - BB&T Capital Markets: Jim, these potential delays on the pipeline side, what do you think about that? Is that all permitting, or are you – because these MLPs, the stocks are down, they're talking about less access to capital. Does that matter, too, or is it just all permits?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

It's mostly all permits. I mean, the country needs big pipe. And despite what's going on with the MLPs and the issues that you mentioned, I mean, you've got to get product moved, you've got to get this natural gas to these markets, and that's the shale. The shales are shut down in many areas because they don't have takeaway capacity, especially in the Marcellus and Utica. And the coal-to-gas switching is creating an environment where our customers need redundant gas pipeline systems in order to feed these power plants – these new gas-powered plants. So the need for the big pipe is there, regardless of the economic situation or the MLP environment, and that's what the big driver is on the pipeline boom that we expect, or increase in mainline pipe that we expect over the next several years. Adam Robert Thalhimer - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. That's helpful. And then on the transmission side, relative to two or three or four years ago, have you seen increased competition?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

No. I mean, it's the same people in the industry. I mean, you might see a company move into the business, but they're tapping into the same resource base. I mean, again you've got a limited amount of superintendents and foremen in this industry. It's a very specialized industry, that field leadership is extremely important, in my opinion, in order to be successful as a contractor. This business has only ramped up really in a big way five years ago, and it's really put a strain on the industry, especially at the field leadership position where it could take a decade or more to train a qualified journeyman lineman that moves to a general foreman or a superintendent position. So I really haven't seen the competitive environment change with the blue-collar workforce that executes on the work. And I think that's the most important aspect of what we do, is having those self-perform capabilities, and I have not seen a significant shift, if at all, in that area of our business.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our final question from Jeffrey Volshteyn at JPMorgan.

Jeffrey Y. Volshteyn - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I'm going to be quick. So just, Jim, following on your commentary on large electric projects, I surely understand the complexity around permitting, particularly in large metropolitan areas. But perhaps you can give us a little bit of color of where the delays are coming from. Is that local agencies? Is it federal agencies? And maybe in certain geographies or certain functions that are being consistently slower in permitting?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Well, I don't want to sound flippant with that question, but it's all of the above. I mean, it's become more complicated, and when you get into – I mean, it's every single municipality, it's every county, it's every state, and it's a very difficult process for our customers to get through, especially in the more populous areas of the United States and Canada. You just have more jurisdictions and you've got more permitting, and it just takes time. And it's no different than really 10 years ago. I mean, some of the first transmission projects that we started building in 2011 were in the permitting process for 10 to 15 years in California to get approved. So, it just takes time, and it's not a matter of if this infrastructure gets built, it's when. And the environmental groups have become more organized, and so forth. You see that in the media. It's just a more difficult environment, but what's frustrating us is to predict when these projects move or forecast when these projects move to construction.

Jeffrey Y. Volshteyn - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Do you feel that these projects are appropriately funded, and there's not a funding issue as well?

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

It's not a funding issue for the customers that we're working for, no. Many of our customers have – when you look at the pipeline, companies that have firm shipping agreements in place – shipper agreements in place to build the infrastructure, and our customers who need to build pipeline infrastructure to feed power plants and so forth, it's not a independent pipeline company that owns that project that has a shipper agreement in place, it's a utility that gets recouped through the rate base. So, financing's not an issue with the projects that we see in our backlog.

Operator

Operator

And at this time, that does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the call back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.

James F. O'Neil - Chief Executive Officer and President

Management

Okay. Well, this is Jim O'Neil, and I would like to thank all of you for participating in our third quarter 2015 conference call. We do appreciate your questions and your ongoing interest in Quanta Services. Thank you, and this concludes our call for today.

Operator

Operator

This does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation.