Earnings Labs

Pearson plc (PSO)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Mar 3, 2015

$14.45

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Transcript

John Fallon

Management

Good morning, everybody. We'll get going. I know this is a busy day, at the end of a very busy week of results, so we very much appreciate you for joining us. I'm John Fallon, here with Robin Freestone, our CFO, and we're joined by the Pearson executive management team. Just before we get into the results themselves, you'll have seen that we've announced this morning that we've appointed Coram Williams, CFO of Penguin Random House, as Robin's successor. Coram will start with Pearson on July 1, as CFO designate. And he's going to take over then from Robin on August 1, after we've been through the interim results and the round of shareholder meetings that we do immediately after that. So I can spare Robin's blushes for this morning, because I'll wait until July to take the chance to acknowledge the immense contribution that Robin has made to Pearson. For today, let me just say that, I think, Coram is going to prove himself a very worthy successor. He was chosen from a really very strong field of both external and internal candidates, he's proved himself in a wide range of finance roles in Pearson over the last 10 years and he's done a really great job as CFO of Penguin Random House where he has led an integration which I think is both been operationally difficult and culturally challenging and as you can see from the results this morning is one that is going very well and also one where he was very successfully helping the business to be both creatively and commercially successful when Penguin Random House itself is going through period of great internal and external change. So with that let's move on to the results. Robin and I going to trying to keep this presentation…

Robin Freestone

Management

Thank you very much, John. Good morning all, just a few words to endorse John’s comments about quarter -- what we called about 10 years I am actually delighted that he will take on the CFO role and I can assure you he will be a most brilliant Pearson’s CFO, but just in terms of numbers, so we’re going to look back as before we look forward, and looking at 2014 as a whole sales in North America improves about 2% at CER with growth in higher education in connections in view and in our Clinical Assessment business offsetting declines in K-20 of learning services and state assessments and as you can see in the appendix as John mentioned cyclical and policy related factors were broadly in light with what we’ve through we’re going to be at start of the year. In higher education, growth was primarily driven by continued strong performance in our online services business where enrollments grew more than 20% as well as share gain and learning services helped by a strong new addition here which provided a modest boost. A 9% growth in test volumes was the key driver of the growth in Pearson view. Student numbers at connections were more up than 15% and a strong initial demand for Q-Interactive was behind a good performance from our Clinical Assessment business. As we flagged at the half year, revenue deferral from blended digital programs and market share lost particularly Texas with the main cause of the decline in our case K-12 learning services business. And in our State Assessment business the impacts of policy change on testing volumes in Texas and California with the primary drivers of lower test volumes and revenues as we expected. Revenues in core declined 5% with modest growth Australia and Italy…

John Fallon

Management

Thanks, Robin. So as you heard from Robin this year we expect earnings to grow again and we then expect to be able to sustain that growth in future years. And we will achieve that growth by meeting what we think is one of the biggest needs in the world today which is all about equipping more people with the education and training that is increasingly essential to prosper in the global economy that really does value knowledge and skills more than it ever did before. So I am just going to take a few moments really to try to do two things. First to explain how our efficacy strategy helps us to do that by driving access impact and outcomes in education and as a result higher financial returns for Pearson. And then what our priorities are in implementing our strategy mainly around new digital products and services, a simply more focused company, a higher performing culture and a stronger Pearson brand. You have seen this image before it's all about the fact that we know and our customers know that technology yes it can be incredibly powerful tool in meeting this need for education but it's only a tool. And so our strategy is really to try to stand at the intersection of the new technology which gives us the great ability to engage and personalize and to diagnose with all that we and are learning more all the time about the new more effective ways of teaching. And if we do that we can then develop products and services that means we can share the benefits of richer and deeper learning far more wisely. And it means that the bigger our impact which we define in terms of improving access to good quality education and translating that…

Q - Sami Kassab

Management

Sami Kassab, Exane BNP Paribas. Three small questions to start with, please. The first one, market share in K-12, can you help us understand why you think you lost them, and how you think you will regain them? And what outcome would you expect in market share for 2015, please? Secondly, can you please come back on Brazil; help us understand the drivers of the poor performance there, and how you see 2015 developing for Brazil, and, in particular, Brazilian sistemas? And lastly, perhaps, could you quantify the impact that moving to a distributor model had on your organic revenue growth?

John Fallon

Management

So Don, do you want to pick up on the K-12 learning services point? Then Tamara will talk about Brazil and then I think the move to the distribution model had the biggest impact in core markets so Rod perhaps you could pick up on that.

Donald Kilburn

Management

Well clearly that we lost some share in the competitive wars in 2014. I think in particular we lost some share middle school in Texas around our math products and our science product. We lost a little bit of share in Florida. I think the underlying reasons was we were coming out of a substantial reorganization in 2013 and the sales force where we went from I think eight or nine the sales force is down to one. There was some disruption there. I think also we identified in '14 that we had some product gaps that we are about addressing, so the good news is the reorganization has bedded down after '14 moving into '15 and on the product side again we are addressing the issues there and again we won share I think in '13 we lost some share in '14 and we're anticipating that we will be back to being very competitive in '15.

John Fallon

Management

Tamara if you want to pick up on Brazil.

Sami Kassab

Management

What does the breakeven mean, is it 30% like your 10 year average?

John Fallon

Management

I'm sorry, what was your question?

Sami Kassab

Management

What does breakeven mean, is it 30% like your 10 year average?

John Fallon

Management

So I think what we're saying that we expect to start to regain our performance and I think overall you can assume that in our U.S. K-12 business benefit all the deferred revenues coming through that Robin talked about an improved competitive performance offsets the fact that it's a smaller adoption year this year which should enable us to sort of sustain a similar level of revenues to last year. I think probably the summary of it. Tamara, can you talk about Brazil?

Tamara Minick-Scokalo

Management

In Brazil, Sistema as we flagged at the half year that business had stalled out because we are combining with three private Sistema brand and we were combining three sales forces that largely called on similar customers together integrating those. In addition, we made the decision to accelerate the integration of Multi and our Pearson Brazil business into last year full integration and those two disruptive forces caused that business to stall out, but we took the opportunity both to invest in that sales force both the capabilities as well as increased reach into the marketplace, we reinvested from that restructure into a further reach into the marketplace the capabilities as well as invested in new product refresh and digital blended products for our Sistema. So we fully expect that to come to into growth in '15 and return to growth.

John Fallon

Management

And then Rod, do you want to pick up on the question that was around impact of distributor of moving to distributor model?

Rod Bristow

Management

Yes there was some impact as Robin said is moving to a distributor model, but I wouldn’t want that to be overstated in the context of other changes we were also making, we exited some lists, some businesses as well. And if that moved to a distributor model whilst there is a degree of impact partly through a disruption partly through timing, it also means that as we develop those relations with those distributors it gives us a sharper focus and an ability to grow going forward.

Sarah Simon

Management

Yes, Sarah Simon from Berenberg. Three questions also. First one is can you – you talked about sort of great stability in terms of policy, can you comment on what the impact would be if there's a major rewrite to the No Child Left Behind which is kind of going through at the moment? Second one in terms of the net restructuring benefit you showed us the same numbers obviously currency has moved a lot so presumably the savings that are going to come from that being dollar based is going to be even bigger than they were guided to before? And then the third one was just about the user or registration numbers for global English and Wall Street English were sort of flat to down, just a comment on that would be helpful. Thanks.

John Fallon

Management

So Doug, do you want to pick up on the sort of political and reauthorization changes to No Child Left Behind and perhaps talk a little bit more about where you think we are on common core as well.

Doug Kubach

Management

Sure. So as you know the No Child Left Behind or Elementary Secondary Education Act is the U.S. federal initiative to provide funding primarily for disadvantaged students across the country. It also is the act that specifies that states need to implement standards and have annual assessments for many of the grades in reading math and in science as well. So we are following the reauthorization quite closely, because that does drive a lot of aspects of our business around assessments and professional development and new curriculum materials. It's likely that if it is reauthorized that the major focus will be on the accountability provisions and moving more of the control around accountability back to states, but as far as we can tell right now there really won't be any major impact on the implementation of standards or on the annual assessments provision. A – Unidentified Company Representative: Thanks Doug. And then John, do you want to pick up and so I think we're looking at the slide in the appendix is looking at the sort of global English registrations and the Wall Street English registrations pretty much flat year-on-year talk a little about that. And perhaps also and talk a little bit about some of the new products we've got coming out that gives us good confidence we're going to see some momentum in those registrations this year.

John Fallon

Management

Yes sure so on Wall Street English, which is our sort of direct delivery English language business, we saw a slight slip from the 1% down to about 190,000, but we did see good growth, we saw growth in China. We saw a bit of slippage in Europe, but really one of the really interesting thing going on there is we are sort of completely overhauling and redesigning the Wall Street experience one of our key projects is the new student experience which is a fundamental overhaul of really everything from the syllabus to the center of design of the centers to the digital community around there and sort of digital marketing effort. And it's all embedded and connected to our global scale of English which is a proprietary learning scale. So it is very much in progress and we start rolling this out in Q4 this year in China which is obviously our biggest market. And on global English as to what we're seeing in global English is quite good activity in new sales and new contracts and because of the sort of subscription nature of that that needs to flow through and we'll see the impact of that this year and ongoing years. And again we're in the process of refreshing and upgrading the product including embedding content from the FT and video from the FT into the course of that. A – Unidentified Company Representative: And Robin, do you want to pick up on Sarah's question that sort of impacts of exchange rates on the net restructuring benefit?

Robin Freestone

Management

Yes so you recalled in 2013 we had restructuring cost a little bit higher than we indicated at the start of the year. In 2014 they've been little bit lower actually so we thought we'd be having that restructuring cost of about 50 million pounds that come in at 44 million and I think on Slide 10 we shown you what we expect to happen in 2015 which is the growth restructuring charges we took in '14 of 84 million pound fall away, we get the second half of the benefits from the 2014 restructuring and then we've got normalized restructuring of about 30 million pounds and I think that is the corollary of all the activity we've undertaken in '14 coming through. There may be a little bit strange movement, but frankly the numbers are they were our best estimate what's going to happen in '15 now from what we done in '14.

John Fallon

Management

If we sort of move onto our next question for those listening on the webcast I think I was supposed to say at beginning that if you have a question if you wanted to e-mail it and then I will pick it up and make sure it gets answered and I'm still trying to do that if you want to respond even though I've done it about 40 minutes later than I was supposed to have done, but anyway we go ahead to next. Thank you.

Nick Dempsey

Management

It's Nick Dempsey from Barclays. Three questions please. First of all on Texas and California testing we have those contracts coming up for renewal I think in the second quarter. I wonder if you could give us a sense of the scale of impacts, I know you won't give us the numbers but a sense of the scale of impact if you were to lose those? And I'm thinking in terms of restructuring charges as well as just losing the profits. Second question, Houghton Mifflin talked about the K-12 text and market down 9% in 2015. That doesn’t seems tally very well with the sort of directional comments that you guys have made. So I want a few comments on that. And lastly, the stranded cost related to Penguin I guess I'd originally thought that those were included in your restructuring program. So is that a change or did I just misunderstand that in the first place?

John Fallon

Management

On Texas and California, you'll understand that we're in a quiet period in terms of bidding for both of those contracts, so obviously we're not in the position to talk about them. In terms of the guidance for '15, you can assume there is minimal impact from any change in contracts there in the sense that we already have contracts in Texas and California that will last for most of this year whatever happens to those processes that are currently in place. So that’s on the guidance, on the K12 mark I think the -- I mean I can ask Don to expand on the answer he gave before, but I think the answer is the same what I said which is, yes, the available market will be smaller this year with a combination of deferred revenues releasing from last year and what we expect to be an improve competitive performance explains the guidance that were given for the years. I don’t this Don there is much more we can have -- just when it take the market…

Robin Freestone

Management

The only other thing is reduction in some of the market is on a cash basis not on a P&L basis that it becomes deferred revenue next year.

John Fallon

Management

So there is what the AAP numbers and Houghton Mifflin are quoting this cash bands not recognize revenue spend this year because it defers over a number of years. And then on the sort of Penguin’s around the cost, I think you said back in this room two years ago when we announced that we will be doing this major restructuring program one of the major drivers of it was the demerger of Penguin from patient. We always knew that that would be a stranded cost related to it and actually fact the scale of the funded cost is somewhat lower than we modeled when is it board we were weighing up the option or merging Penguin with Random House and I think what’s happened is although there is whole, they have materialize more quickly because Penguin has got off to Pearson systems more quickly than we expected. We still expect to whittle away at that 30 million over next couple of years and that will be one of the factors of the further restructuring word that’s gone, but that a whole answers that question. Was there another one, did somebody answer the question. Tom? And then I’ll move over to this side of the room.

Nick Dempsey

Management

I have two questions on two different subjects. The first one on K12 curriculum, I think there had been some hope that period of sort of sub trend level of spend relating to sort of steady state levels on sub text, but there might be a period of about trend spend is that -- should we discount that as very low likelihood? That’s first question and then the second one is on Penguin Random House, I recognize there is potentially a lot more good stuff to happen there in terms of restructuring and maybe a good economic reason for holding on to that stake, but can you just talk about the strategic value of it, is there a reason why you need to hold it from a strategic perspective now that the warehouses all separate?

John Fallon

Management

Sure, I mean on Penguin Random House I think the cleared decision that we made was there enough time of grade change in the trade publishing industry the best way to secure the courageous and commercial future of Penguin with the merger with Random House, I think so far that proving to be the right call. Clearly there is a lot of value that being created this further significant program of integration going on this year. So at this point we are very comfortable with our shareholding in the company and the terms in which anything different might happen, we clearly set out in the shareholding agreement. On the K12, again I am not sure we can and I think the first point I remember is that the K12 learning services business is just one pile of a not bigger U.S. K12 business and we saw strong growth in connections last year and we expect to see good growth in connections this year and I mean we’ve included in the appendix to the fact what happen to our cashing volumes which is obviously the single biggest part of our K12 business last year were down. So, I think in broad terms you're right to say that the funding environment because state tax receipts are now in surplus is more favorable and as the policy environment becomes bit clearer, you would expect some positive momentum, but we’ll see that as not in our virtual schools and testing businesses we will in learning services. I think that’s probably the way to think about lot and…

Nick Dempsey

Management

Two questions if I may, the first is on Wall Street English, you mentioned growth in China, so you're talking about double-digit growth or single-digit growth? And secondly, South Africa was quite weak in 2014, so do you expect now adoptions to stabilize with the level of 2014 or rather to revert back to 2013 please?

John Fallon

Management

So two question for that for tomorrow there, we got microphone so, outlook for textbook publishing in South Africa and Wall Street English growth in China, you might brought that out to talk about the textbook business we’ve got there in English more generally.

Robin Freestone

Management

We have two very strong English businesses in China, one is our Wall Street business which had very strong growth last year and our business of English test prep for aspiring young student who want that certification in order as a gateway to study abroad, both of them had robust growth the exact growth I don’t think is appropriate to give out exact numbers on that, but looks to stay very strong growth and we expect that to continue in the future especially as we layer in new products more digital blended engaging et cetera. And the second question was South Africa, this was a market correction and we had anticipated some drop in the market. There were three tranches of curriculum reform in K-12 in the public school system the last of which took that market in 2013 to an unprecedented high. We had forecasted a drop, a drop of 40% was not forecasted in that market for it to drop-off in those top ups quite as much given there's still probably only seven textbooks for every 10 children, we expected those top ups to remain stronger than they did. We expect that market to stabilize in '15 and so and we've taken share over the last few years, we expect to continue to take modest share for that market to really stabilize and not go back to those high levels that we've previously seen through curriculum reform.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thanks John. I've got three questions. The first one is really on U.S. assessment I wonder if you can elaborate I mean there's been a lot of negative report in the trade press backlash against testing sharing of tests what's really happening there? How much of it is political posturing and what does it mean for revenues and profits for you in '15 and '16? That's the first question. Second one is change in its business model in the college market is that a positive for the market? And the third one is really about the board composition you're looking for a new chairman, do you need to shift it a bit more to having someone with sort of U.S. political experience someone to navigate that or do you think the board composition is right as it is?

John Fallon

Management

Well let me take the third one first because Glen is still very much the chairman of Pearson and very active so the question is somewhat hypothetical but I think it's fair to say that myself, Kate, Don, Doug, Tim, the wider Pearson team all invest very significant amounts of time into engaging with policy makers in the states as the whole of the team does around the world. I think we have good relations across the political spectrum and I think we are widely respected for our ability to take on large complex projects and do so in the full glare of publicity and where the lot of political sensitivities around it and do it effectively. Clearly if you're in the business of education is one of the most important issues in the world, it's something on which everybody has an opinion and rightly so. So you've got to be willing to be open transparent engaged and you've got to hold yourself accountable and that's why another reason why I think this whole move to us being focused much more on the impact of what we have and measuring our success by access and outcomes is the best way for us to sustain and grow the business and navigate our way through those issues. And on that then Tim, do you want to talk about the changes in the business model and what that means for us in higher education and why we're excited about that both in the U.S. and around the world and then John if you want to pick up then on bring a bit of sort of context in perspective to the whole debate over assessment. Is that okay, so Tim first.

Tim Bozik

Management

So, Paddy to respond to your question about Chegg. Chegg's recent I think decisions and announcement were really about focusing on digital and services by outsourcing the rental business or partnering a rental business to Ingram. So I think that that actually that squares pretty well with our product portfolio strategy that John described has applied to higher education which is we're participating in digital courseware and services and then Chegg plays a role in the distribution channel and insofar as we work with multiple partners we think that actually supports the movements that are healthy for the business. And from a portfolio standpoint, we're investing in new digital products and courseware models that John described if I could give you a sliver of color on the REVEL model that he described so I can give you some context around that. It is a couple of think really interesting things for learners and for Pearson so first to describe the user experience it combines a reading text experience with a suite of learning application or applets. In the UX that is super simple and modern and it's based on principles of learning design and cognitive research so that's where John's point about applying what we know about teaching and technology. It is a fully mobile user experience, it's based on our increasingly modern cloud-based stacks that will bring the efficiencies that he described about and it provides a kind of dashboard and analytics for faculty that really give them a predictive and leading indicator of student performance. From a business respect it was launched with some less than 20 products and it's already used it over 100 colleges and universities in the U.S. The platform is globally deployable, our product release cycle is tripling in 2015 and from a portfolio standpoint John characterized that is getting us into the qualitative areas, it extends the reach of our digital courseware portfolio in some pretty interesting ways. So that gives you maybe little more color on business models, product models and sort of tech piece.

Robin Freestone

Management

So John can you just give a bit more perspective on assessment and while you're there can you also deal with the question from Tim Nolan a query that's come on my e-mail which is PowerSchool I thought this was an important part of your digital services is it because you have overlaps with other offerings? Any color so just deal with the assessment then explain the rationale behind the PowerSchool decision.

John Fallon

Management

Sure well the first thing to note about our assessment business in the U.S. is how diversified we've become while the state assessments that are driven by the Federal No Child Left Behind Act are an important part of our business there. Just one part of our business, we have a really strong clinic assessment business, diagnostic testing, future certification, language testing and so on. So we are not really that exposed if there are dramatic changes in terms of the federal legislation. Now as I mentioned earlier, we are watching the reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind Act very closely, because that does affect that part of the business if there is a move which we are anticipating of more control back to states that’s really the environment that we’ve been operating in under No Child Left Behind from the beginning. So, we don’t think that that is a raw material. Moving on to PowerSchool, so PowerSchool is an administrative software system, it's a great business, it's a really good brand performing quite well, it's a market leader. But it is an administrative system and it's about managing customers data, it's not information or data that we can use and really in anyway. And we also have to work with the whole market with all of our learning systems and assessment programs we have to integrate with every schools student information system product and while PowerSchool is the leader with about quarter in the market. There are three quarters of the market using other systems and this will actually help us work with that part of the market because will no longer be a competitor. And given that we cannot directly measure an impact on student outcomes relative to providing and administrative software system it's just not a priority for investment and we think that it will be a better served in under another order.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

I will ask you to step back and think about two broader issues please. One is the fact that you’ve been describing now, but you and your predecessor have been describing the efficacy of digital education tools for long time but is skeptics abound and don’t seem to be any less vocal. Can you get investors a sense of whether you are making tangible progress or not in a length concerns or if not is there a strategy, a different strategy that you can deploy going forward? Second question, can you please draw distinction between your strategy on data protection and data usage compared to some of the other competitors and do you see there is a competitive advantage and why?

John Fallon

Management

Two good questions, I think on the first question, I mean clearly I think we are making significant progress, I think that progress has been clouded by the very significant cyclical and policy related issues we have to deal with over the last couple of years, if you just look -- just take one example, we just look at the appendix of the back and what happened to BTEC qualifications holding over the last couple of years and you compound that was happening with college enrollments at this point in the cycle that something is clouding the very significant progress we are making the growth in digital and services as a percentage of revenues, the growth in deferred revenue which is the equivalent of two points of organic revenue growth. So, I think those help to provide some evidence of it. And I think the --well efficacy is something that we’ve been talking about for some years it really does take a while for this to really deeper than get traction across the company. So I think is really now over the next three to five years that you will really see very significant benefits of that coming through. I think the other data point I could provide is when we were having this conversation two years ago when I was new to the job to hold that all of your questions were about analog to digital and how we were going to see significant secret of value in that transition. Well, I think we can now say clearly that, we are sustaining the value in that transition. So, I think there is quite a lot of points there if you look that should already give shareholders confidence, but there is a lot more still to do. On the data analytics point, Tim do you want to pick his up, you wanted to say something -- is something that was across the whole of the lines of business something that Tim and John are all working on collectively across the company, but we do think this is a significant course of competitive advantage and actually the very reason for us to get out of a business like PowerSchool is because we free up resources and time and focus to really focus on the front end where we think we really can bring value and expertise. So Tim you want to summarize some of the word that we’re doing in that area?

Tim Bozik

Management

Sure, so I think that the -- that Pearson has very strong opportunities for competitive advantage as it pertains to applying data and data analytics and predicted fashions that can have the kind of learner impact and by doing so provide the kind of business growth for us. The moves that we’re making to a simplified technology platform which perhaps Albert collaborate on that will allows to get the benefits of that skill from the kind of consistency of the architectural and the application that are customers, so I think at in principal level there is I think a fair agreement about at least the directional potential of the application of data on impact of learning and therefore the connection of what that could do from a business standpoint for us and perhaps I could ask Albert to talk about how we’re approaching that from a technology architectural standpoint to elaborate on that?

John Fallon

Management

And so I think it’d be helpful just to talk a bit more Jim, this is really fundamental drive of opportunity for us over the next three years the really opportunity to really simplify our technology platforms.

Albert Hitchcock

Management

Good morning everyone, so there is a huge opportunity and I mean largely I think driven through some of Pearson’s history and that we have acquired over the Company over the long time we had very fragmented structure and to some extent that technology architecture reflects that fragmentation over the many years. So the strategy really is to dramatically simplify the technology environment and create what we’re calling a set of call platforms for the Company effectively core assets that underpinned both the customers and their experience, but also enables us to run an effective business and John mentioned about going from 63 ERP systems down to one and we’ve got a program for that we’re doing the same thing CRM we have many CRM systems across the country. We want to get one of the next few years and really create what I call a 360 degree view of customers so all that customer data sits in one place, so we can see every customer interaction the Company has and create a very personalized way of dealing with customer and of course that then cascades up to the product layer and how we actually touch product and customer experience. And so when we think about big data and customer learn our analytics the intention is to have again one platform that does that, so today we have many fragmented views of customer data by getting to one platform than we can really start to look at customer lifecycle across the whole learning continuum wherever a learner sits in the world and then start to get to as Tim says a very predicted view of customers behavior, so we can understand customer trends. We both have a historical view of what the customer has done with us but increasingly like a number of other industries get to this predicative view and ultimately then the nirvana of that is can we actually change the learning process and the content in real-time to suite an individual’s personality and behaviors and so that sort of where we increasingly want to spend their R&D dollar is who we’re getting that really adaptive learning cycle that continuously learns and continuous improves around a personalized learning experience.

John Fallon

Operator

I am just linking that back to your first question then of course the reason we know that this efficacy strategy is a commercially successful strategy is what driven our most successful commercial products over the last five years. The issue is, is not every product in Pearson yet, so we need to make all Pearson like the best of Pearson already is and that’s what’s going to drive grow of the Company. So Patrick and then also [indiscernible] and then it’s Patrick and then I’ll come to the back.

Giasone Salati

Analyst

Hi Giasone Salati, Redburn. I have three questions please can you give us the split of for-profit college and K-12 testing as a percentage of profit now? Second how is the Pearson College going in London, I think it’s been running for two years a bit, is that model that you’re ready to roll out as well? And picking up on the last answer, I am looking at Slide 38 with all of those datacenters, it is reminiscent of Reuters coming out of the 90s after a long period of acquisitions never integrated and unfortunately they fail consistently year after year to integrate those datacenters, is technology much easier now? Or is Pearson a totally different beast from Reuters clearly there was live only where is live testing maybe live at this point which makes you more confident that you can actually combine these different datacenters in one and what time arise?

John Fallon

Operator

Thank you for that question. Robin, do you want -- I suspect the answer is we can’t provide a lot more guidance, but do you want to try and answer the first one.

Robin Freestone

Management

Little bit I think, if we look on 44 we put in the appendix I mean which helps you split out within our North American business how much of it is in various parts and clearly the for-profit colleges you reference is part of the higher education blue bar in that business and we’ve always said remember for for-profit colleges are only about 7% of the U.S. higher education market but we’re somewhat more highly weighted into the for-profit colleges because MyLab tend to have greater penetration in that space so that give you some degree of clue to how much of that blue area is the profit colleges certainly isn’t a majority of it but isn’t an important of it. The testing business that you referenced and I think John covered this earlier is part of the green bar in school, but remembering the state testing is only part of our testing business because we’ve got natural testing and clinical which is one of our highest margin businesses in there as well. So it’s important but it’s again not like changing in itself.

John Fallon

Operator

Okay, Rod, do you want to pick up on Pearson college, which honestly still very much in private phase isn’t it.

Rod Bristow

Management

Yes, it’s still very much of in early days but we’re pleased with the progress that we’re making with Pearson college and the proposition the reason why students that comes to Pearson college, chose Pearson college is because if you want to a get job working for a FTSE 100 company then you come to get your degree from FTSE 100 company, you may get some direct firsthand experience this is going to be valuable to even if what the Steven is telling us to come through Pearson College. The reason we decided to make the commitment to fill Pearson College is a couple of reasons; first of all, it gives us much more firsthand direct experience to prove out some of the things we are working with other higher education plan is on. So that we can better develop partnerships with other higher education institutions and develop the kind of partnerships outside of North America that we’ve been very successful at in North America for example Arizona State University. So to build out our expertise environment also to be able to acquire degree-awarding powers, so that ultimately we are degree-awarding powers we will be able to take our degree programs to other institutions and particular outside of the UK. So it's a very good future growth opportunity early days, but so far on track.

John Fallon

Operator

Albert I don’t think either of us can help very much with the writers historical analogy, but I know the company that grew very rapidly through acquisition was Vodafone and that’s one way you bring direct experience, so I think you can apply that to this question.

Albert Hitchcock

Management

Yes, I mean a good question, I would say the data center landscape directly reflects the complexity in the application environment. So, as we reduced the number of applications and the number of digital products in so much more standardize set that enable us to collapse the data center, so there is a direct linkage there. But I think there are many example companies have failed on this and also many examples of companies of being successful out there and I did the same thing at Vodafone and did a lot of technology consolidation and I did also the same job at Nortel Networks when I was the CIO there as well. So it's a leadership challenge, it's not a technology challenge per say and we’re assembling a very high caliber professional technology organizations that are worth the journey here both in terms of the process rationalization simplification because clearly applications so that is support business process, so we’ve got to do two things, we got to simplify the business model, simplify the processes of the company, moved to standardize platforms and as we do that journey the consolidation of the underlying infrastructure data centers and network follows that continue. So, it's a multi age journey, but we very made some good start on the journey and we got a lot to do, but we’re making good progress.

John Fallon

Operator

I think that’s a really important point because I think it's the organizational changes that we made over the last two years to start from one person as a single operating company three job for three lines of business that actually enables this program to have much greater success rather integrate what are hundreds of still vertically integrated P&Ls. So I think this is as much a leadership and culture issue as it is a technology challenge and that’s really important and I think we’ve made huge progress on that there the back and then I think we got time for one more question probably.

Mary Pollock

Analyst

Thanks. Mary Pollock, CreditSights. My question is on your uses of discretionary free cash flow your dividend increasing, your free cash flow is better but you don’t have a huge amount of headroom so if you could that’s employ there particularly regarding M&A? And secondly on your credit ratings last year you said you were comfortable being which will be this year your high BBB and the long-term. How you are thinking about your ratings and is there a leverage level where Pearson has being more proactive showing up their balance sheet?

John Fallon

Operator

Robin do you want to take both of those?

Robin Freestone

Management

I mean two related fairly, I mean I think that we’ve always been clear that the uses of cash the first one is organic investment and you’ve seen us actually to reprioritize even higher up this trade organic investment over the last couple of years and that’s where that great pipeline is exceeding new products so wherever it is on John’s chart putting all the ’16 is actually going to come from this from that organic investment. We then said dividends, we then said M&A and you’ve seen us coming back a little bit on the M&A activity in the recent times, although Grupo Multi last year was one of the largest acquisitions we’ve done and I think at the moment you won’t see us do that many very significant acquisitions because the prioritization has gone into organic. Just on the debt rating we’ve always been very clear that we’re committed to BBB+ BAA1 and that is what is in some ways constraining our acquisition activity. We are still committed to those ratings I have thought there might be a chance a year ago that we might get downgraded we also gone negative what if Moody’s that weren’t I think the ratios are very similar now as they were a year ago. So in the extensive discussions we’ll have with the rating agencies in March, I am kind of hopeful that we get through those again with the ratings intact. But we’ve always committed to BBB+ BAA1 as our ratings.

Patrick Wellington

Analyst

Patrick Wellington, Morgan Stanley. Very quick one, the UK where are we in terms of BTEC qualifications and when can we expect the UK business to start peaking up again? Second one Robin if you go to some of the other education companies so it would stick to further income and as sort of revenue, so should I cross out your zero organic group revenue growth and put plus 3% in why don’t you put next column in or encourage success to do so? And then thirdly going, I think Paddy touch on this, does everybody hate Pearson, does that really matter in U.S. because you do get a lot of very negative publicity and lot that it relates to the fact the system is changing more than Pearson that you are [indiscernible] for that, that you're British company. Are you losing business because everybody hates Pearson?

John Fallon

Operator

So Rod, do you want to take up on BTECs first?

Rod Bristow

Management

Yes, so we did see a contraction in the market last year the size of the market for qualifications as a result of the changes that were made to school accountability measures in other words the kind of lead table points if you like that get applied to different qualifications and also the degree to which schools are incentivized now to ensure that there is much fewer re-sits of qualifications. So we saw a decline last year. We will see some follow through of that in 2015 but much-much less than what we saw last year and we will see stabilization in '16. And we have a record of growing our market share in qualifications in the UK, we expect we also continue to do that and so to be able to grow beyond that we've been investing in the last couple of years in a new suite of qualifications including BTEC but also including our GCSE and A level qualifications our world class qualifications program. We're very proud of the work that we've done there and we expect to be very successful when those new qualifications get launched into the market in the next couple of years.

John Fallon

Operator

Robin, do you want to pick up on the deferred revenue and billings point?

Robin Freestone

Management

I'd love to. So Patrick, I like to think of myself as a traditionalist you may think I'm a dinosaur and I do quite like our sales number which reflects the sort of statutory sales number that we have in the accounts and I think what you're going to see on the new accounting standards is quite a lot of companies moving to billings or some other word billings is not a great word I think but the concept that what we are actually invoiced to customers and you are absolutely right were we to do it that way you would be looking at higher levels if declared billings than we currently show in our sales line because that deferred revenue increase would come back into this year's revenues. Being a traditionalist we've not chosen for the last few years to show you the sales which are aligned with the statutory number and then the deferred revenue and if you wish to make that adjustment I'd allow you to do that with the data we provide. And my successor may very well choose differently and where billings may appear in the future presentation but that will be for others.

John Fallon

Operator

A very diplomatic and thoughtful answer for your successor. So, on your third point I mean I think Pearson is a global company with a long and proud American history and tradition over half of people who work for Pearson work in America. It generates 60% of our revenues over a quarter of our shareholders are registered in the U.S. So I think we are every bit as an American company as we are a British company or anything else. I don’t think that we are losing business as a result of some of the headlines that you talk about and some of those headlines as you implied are a direct result of our willingness and ability to take on difficult politically controversial issues and not get distracted by the headlines and the noise but do what needs to be done and it's the really professional way and always with great concern for the people that we work with and I think the other point I would make is not just that we are a global company but we're also a company that is very significantly made up of former educators and all of us who work for Pearson are here because we care deeply about the power of education to transform people lives and the importance that has and the opportunities that it opens up for people. I think that there are times when currently we need to do a better job of telling that story and some of the appointments for example with Kate, James joining us is doing that and it's the number of people who number of customers partners parents at a recent event who say actually the Pearson we know is the company that only works for Pearson recognizes as a company really committed to doing the best let it come. And so transparency accountability absolute focus on outcomes and improving access that's the way that we will work our way through these, but we're never not going to be in a position you can't be the world's largest education company and not find yourselves at the heart sometimes of a lot of political controversy and hate so it's not for the faint hearted but nor is it for people who aren’t always try to act in the best interests of learners and that's what I think every single person in Pearson tries to do every day. So okay, I think we're done. Thanks everybody for coming and I'm sure Simon will be around to help and Tom will be around to help with follow up.