Michael Grier Eliasek
Analyst · Wells Fargo
Thank you, Finian. I think you articulated many of the prior headwinds within multifamily, but we're seeing a substantial turning the corner occur in our portfolio, and I'll take each of those in turn. First, it's widely diversified from a geographic standpoint. Many of our assets are located in areas in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic or more sort of tertiary areas of the Sun Belt which weren't as targeted for development and actually have some fairly healthy rent growth. For certain assets in larger cities in the Sun Belt where there were supply additions in the market in the last few years. That is now abating substantially. There's a lag effect for new development. So developments that were started prior to 2022 when rates shot up didn't get completed until 2023, 2024, even a little bit at the beginning of 2025. Now much of that new supply has ground to a halt because of higher interest rates and higher development costs. which is very good for incumbent landlords like in our portfolio. That's on the revenue, rents and occupancy side. In terms of the cost equation, we've seen a significant slowdown in inflation, property taxes, insurance and payroll and all of that is quite favorable. Our book has had a like-for-like sort of same property net operating income increase of 7% in the last year. And we anticipate that accelerating to double- digit growth going forward. We are strategically focused as a middle market first lien senior secured lender. Real estate is substantially lower yielding than our middle market book. We are selectively exiting investments at a value maximizing price over time in a careful and prudent way. Of course, if we expect substantial NOI growth in certain properties, it may make sense to exit in a year or 2 as opposed to this second. It also makes sense to exit in a methodical bottoms-up singular asset or mini portfolio way to maximize buyer interest. There are a lot fewer buyers that can stroke a $1 billion check plus for the entire portfolio compared to ones that can buy individual assets or mini portfolio. So we're very pleased with the direction of our real estate business. We view the rotation from that 4.5% yielding a part of our book into middle market senior secured loans as a huge value driver for our business. Our last 10 or so deals in the middle market, which have been focused, as John mentioned, on sub-$50 million EBITDA companies have had an average spread of around 750 and an average floor of 300 basis points. So we're talking about double-digit yields in an all-weather fashion, even if rates get cut to are near 0, where they were only 3.5 years ago. So we've been resisting the upper middle market urge to jump into deals with tight spreads, with loose covenants with lender liability, liability management exercises low to no floors, no maintenance covenants, significant problems, and we're staying away from those Wall Street ask or larger club deals where so much capital has been focused. There's maybe 230,000 middle-market companies between $5 million and $150 million of EBITDA. The upper middle market, where there are so many problems in the $50 million to $150 million range, has only about 10,000 of those companies and the other 220,000 are sub-$50 million. That's where we're focused. They're harder deals to originate to underwrite, to close, but we originate thousands of deals per annum and have a low 0.5% book-to- look ratio with our 150-person strong team. So we're well equipped to do that. We've already unlocked value and streamlined and simplified our business by exiting our CLO book, you are not seeing this company message itself as we have in the past as a multiline player, we are focused on middle market lending first lien, senior secured with a portion of our assets from time to time purchasing selected equity that in many cases is highly synergistic with our debt and helps to command better debt terms, plus, of course, give us upside in many cases, without trade-offs through warrants through convertible debt and other types of liquidation preference security attached to our position. So that's what we're doing strategically and as it relates to real estate, Finian.