John Barry
Analyst · Wunderlich, please go ahead. Merrill Ross Your line is open
Hey, Merrill, this is John Barry. I appreciate your question I have a bit to add. I think about these results on three levels, first we're seeing spread compression everywhere we look it can be aircraft leasing, it can be real estate, it can be sponsors loans, can be on line lending everywhere we look there's spread compression. We do our best to avoid having that spread compression impact our book but there's a limit to what we can do, for example in our CLO book we see quite a bit of refinancing’s and repricing. So the market is enabling borrowers across the board to reduce their borrowing costs, and as a result income to lenders, that's the macro, will that change well, we can't predict the future but what we've noticed over the last 15 really in my case 30 years in this business, is you seem to have a downward trend in asset spread until something happens. I just heard yesterday morning I think the volatility index is the lowest it's been in 20 years, that normally is a sign that it's not going to stay that way, will just have to sit. So that's the macro and everyone on this phone call has an equal ability to predict the future which in my case is zero. Then the next level I look at is what I would call timing differences in our portfolio, sometimes in mark-to-market where there's some volatility around the mean, and there I look at our CLO book there are timing differences, I look at -- I think that's the main area that I would -- that I think of the book is having timing differences income, we would've expected in this quarter, not in this quarter but in the future quarter. So as far as I'm concerned the timing differences just is a timing difference, if we get the money eventually. The third level which is the most frustrating to me is operating problems, because that's where I feel that we have a rule and can always do more. In our case there's two areas of operating problems, one is the energy business, we're just amazed at how loan this -- you -- we sometimes it's a drop and then you expect regression to the mean in most markets, this is not -- has not been at least in our part of the energy market where we are largely services, has not regressed to the mean anywhere near what we would have expected, based on past history. So that has been very frustrating, very disappointing we spent a lot of time on that, it's not that easy to fix problems in an industry where revenue is collapsing and where people are pricing down and desperately trying -- your competitors are trying to desperately stay in business really by pricing below their marginal cost. So that is very frustrating, looking backwards we wish we never invested in energy, right, well, we don't get that opportunity, we are invested in energy, it's only what is it grew 2.3% of our book, thank goodness it is not more, but it's been extremely, extremely, extremely frustrating and upsetting for all of us. Then another part of the operating problem is other companies that are not in the energy business. And while are not accruals low relative to the industry, they really should be a lot lower in my view, and I think we should be doing a lot better dealing with not just energy but non-energy companies, and that has my attention, believe me has everyone’s attention. So those are really the strands I think that have set into a very, very disappointing quarter for me, typically you'll have, I don't know, one or two or three things that are problems and seven and eight things that are going well and they tend to upset each other, this is one of those quarters where it's like you've got a baseball team and your three batters just went up and all three struck out, you say gosh thank goodness the last one wasn't like this and we hope the next inning will not be. But I appreciate your question and as far as a dividends goes, we examine the dividend at least a million times a quarter and we try to size it in relationship to what we think is the long-term sustainable earning power of the company. But we also have to be aware of these macro forces and where interest rates are going the future, as Cain [ph] said, there is two opinions, right; "those from people who don't know where they're going, and those opinions from people who don't know that they don't know where they're going." So we've kept our dividend where it is and we're focused right now on resolving these operating questions, which is the one area where we really can do something and I hope you find that helpful.