Ron Havner
Analyst · Nick Yulico with UBS
Again there is not good stats on what is supply, and we really focus on properties near us. I would say that, we've talked about Huston, pre-Hurricane, supply, Dallas has got supply. If you look at the markets that had meaningful degradation and occupancy Q3 2017 versus Q3 2016, sure that's down 1.8%, Miami is down 1.8%, Portland is down 1.6%, Chicago is down 1.6%, Dallas is down 1.6%, Atlanta is down 1.5%, Denver is down 1.3%. All of those markets we have seen a meaningful increase in supply in those markets. Did you take Portland, we've been told there is 30 properties, under consideration to be developed in that market which is a big uptick in supply, Denver, we have been saying quarter-after-quarter big uptick in supply, and we still see 30 or 40 more properties coming into that market. So, I'm hoping given the slowdown in renovates, in occupancy and renovates, and reduction in pricing power, that will create some kind of headwind for people to put developments on hold or simply abandoned doing them. Certainly, the tone is changed with respect to developing properties and getting 4%, 5% rate increases in revenue, quick fill-up and all that kind of stuff. I think it's going to be we'll have pretty meaningful uptick and supply this year. I don't know about next year, but even if we have a meaningful reduction, extra is going to be a couple years as each properties fill up.