Alison Rand
Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead, Mark
Thank you, Glenn, and good morning, everyone. Before we get started with a review of our core operating results, let me address the $60 million non-cash goodwill impairment charge recorded during the quarter. GAAP requires us to reform a goodwill impairment analysis annually for our senior health reporting unit, which we conducted as of July 1, 2022. The impairment charge reflects the calculated decline in the fair market value of our senior health business, which was primarily driven by an increase in the market based weighted average cost of capital used to discount the reporting units cash flows. The WACC was influenced by significant increases in current equity market risk premiums and interest rates. This charge has no impact on Primerica's cash flows or our ability to repurchase shares of our common stock, nor does it impact our plans for the senior health business as Glenn just discussed. Turning now to our operating results. Term Life segment operating revenues of 428 million grew 7% year-over-year, driven by a similar growth in adjusted direct premiums, while pretax income grew by 4%. The resulting Term Life operating margin was 19.3%, down slightly from 20% in the prior year period. As sales and persistency trends have normalized post-pandemic, [7%] [ph] growth in adjusted direct premiums. We can see this dynamic in the deceleration of ADP growth to an expected 8% for the full-year of 2022. We expect ADP growth to contract further in 2023 to around 6%, driven by a variety of factors. First, persistency is expected to continue its return to normal levels in 2023, while 2022 results benefited from lower lapse rates for part of the year. Second, while sales levels have normalized, strong sales in the first half of 2021 provided a tailwind to ADP growth in 2022. Finally, the Canadian exchange rate, which was relatively stable throughout 2022 dropped in September and our planning assumption is that it remains at this current level through 2023. Looking further into the future, assuming mid-single-digit sales growth, we expect ADP growth to remain at around 6% per year for the next three years. This predictable revenue growth is a function of the size and stability of our import premium base and the ongoing benefit of increasing benefit riders, which act as a buffer against any short-term negative deviation from our expected sales growth range. Moving next to Term Life segment expense drivers. The DAC amortization ratio at 16% was generally in-line with typical third quarter levels. We continue to see approximately [50%] [ph] higher lapses on policies issued during the peak of the pandemic from the second quarter of 2020 through the second quarter of 2021. As this group of policies continues to mature, its impact on overall persistency will decline. Policies issued in the most recent 12 months have generally experienced historical lapse rates. While we continue to observe lapses slightly below historical levels on policy issues before the pandemic. We will continue to monitor persistency trends closely to see if any negative trends emerge from the economic pressures on middle income households. We saw a significant reduction in excess net claims during the quarter with net claims exceeding historical levels by approximately 2 million. The excess net claims this period was split between COVID-related deaths and normal volatility, while 14 million of the 16 million in except net claims last year was related to COVID. The third quarter benefits and claims ratio was [59.5] [ph], compared to historical averages of approximately [58.5 to 59.0] [ph]. The excess net claims and elevated late duration persistency, which requires us to hold additional reserves, contributed to the upward pressure on the benefits and claims ratio. Finally, insurance expenses were in-line with expectations and lower than levels we saw in the first half of 2022, as we resume our normal schedule of sales force leadership events. At 7.5%, the insurance expense ratio is largely in-line with historical trends. As we look ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect the benefits and claims ratio to remain slightly elevated versus historical levels, reflecting the pandemic's fading impact on results. At this point, we do not see any notable COVID pull-forward effect on mortality results. We expect the GAAP ratio to be in-line with pre-pandemic historical levels, reflecting seasonally higher lapses in the fourth quarter. Finally, the pretax margin, which is generally lower in the fourth quarter, is expected to be around 19%. We continue to make progress on our LDTI implementation for 2023 and plan to provide full-year margin of performance ratio guidance under LDTI when we report fourth quarter results in February. As a reminder, while the new accounting standard modified the emergence of profit, it has no impact on cash flows or the economics of our business. We expect to recognize higher profits under LDTI, largely due to how deferred acquisition costs are amortized. Turning to the Investment Savings Product segments, economic headwinds and market volatility continue to significantly impact ISP results with revenue generating product sales down 28% and average client assets down 10% year-over-year. Operating revenues and pretax income were down 14% and 16%, respectively. With the ongoing market volatility, it remains difficult to forecast [3Q results] [ph]. Client asset values ended October at around 83 billion and assuming market levels remain unchanged for the remainder of the quarter, we expect fourth quarter asset based net revenues to decline by approximately 9 million year-over-year. As Glenn noted earlier, we expect to see sales volumes in the fourth quarter decline as much as 30%, which would reduce sales based net revenues by 6 million year-over-year. Turning next to the Senior Health segment, we continue to execute a deliberate plan to grow the business slowly as we gain experience with the evolving Senior Health sector. During the quarter, we saw both high LTVs and – higher LTVs and lower contract acquisition costs on a sequential quarter basis with the LTV and CAC ratio closing to just below one. We also recognized about 2.5 million of marketing development revenues from our carrier partners and a 1.7 million positive tail revenue adjustment from annual carrier and active commission rate increases applicable to a large part of the [in force book] [ph]. With the Medicare annual enrollment period now well underway, we expect fourth quarter operating earnings for the Senior Health segment to generally breakeven. We do not anticipate a need to provide funding to e-TeleQuote in 2022 as cash tax benefit from net operating losses will be sufficient to cover the segment's operations. In our corporate and other distributed products segment, the $4 million year-over-year increase in pretax operating loss was driven by lower earnings in the mortgage business as interest rate headwinds have [slowed down] [ph], as well as operating expenses that were – higher operating expenses that were allocated to the segment. Consolidated insurance and other operating expenses were 8.6 million or 7% higher than adjusted insurance and other operating expenses in the prior year. The year-over-year increase primarily reflects the cost to support growth in the sales force and Term Life business, higher employee related costs and ongoing investments in technology. As expected, expense growth has started to normalize from the elevated levels in experienced earlier in the year. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect insurance and other operating expenses to grow approximately 6%, driven by growth in our business and employee related costs. Finally, our invested asset portfolio remains well diversified with an average rating of A and a duration of 4.8 years. Rising interest rates and to a lesser extent changes in credit spreads continued to impact its income prices with our invested asset portfolio, ending the period at an unrealized loss of 321 million. We regularly evaluate the portfolio from possible credit impairment and have taken very few this year. We do not believe the large unrealized loss is due to significant credit concerns within our holdings. We continue to have the ability intent to hold these investments until maturity. At less than five years, the relatively short duration of our portfolio means that a significant portion of our portfolio will mature over the next few years. On the plus side, rising rates have provided the opportunity for higher reinvestment rates than we have seen in the last several years, which will benefit net investment income over time. During the quarter, the reinvestment rate on our longer-term insurance company portfolios averaged about 5.25%, almost 300 basis points above the third quarter of last year. Liquidity at the holding company remains strong with invested assets and cash of 239 million and Primerica Life statutory risk-based capital ratio is estimated to be 450% as of September 30. We repurchased 97 million of our common stock during the quarter and we anticipate repurchasing the remaining 32 million of our authorization by the end of the year. With that, I will open the call up to questions.