Alison Rand
Analyst · Mark Hughes from SunTrust. Your line is open
Thank you, Glenn, and good morning everyone. Starting on slide six, term life pre-tax income for the quarter was $70.3 million of 18% versus the prior year period. Growth in adjusted direct premiums which increased 11% year-over-year continues to drive the segment earnings expansion. Incurred claims for the quarter were in line with historical trends as was the benefits and claims ratio at 58.4% which is typically elevated in the first quarter. During the prior year period, incurred claims were higher due to normal claims volatility resulting in a $2 million year-over-year improvement. The benefits and claims ratio should continue to be in the 58 to 58.5% range for the remainder of the year. The DAC amortization ratio at 16.8% was consistent with the prior year period and our expectations. Persistency in the quarter was generally in line with twenty eighteen levels. We expect the DAC amortization ratio to be consistent with prior year levels for the remainder of the year and to be around 16% on a full year basis. The net insurance expense ratio for the quarter was 8.1% or about 3 million higher than the prior year period largely due to growth in the business and typical inflationary increases. I will discuss companywide expenses later in the call, but I want to highlight that we expect term life infrastructure modernization efforts and other initiatives for 2019 to increase the full year insurance expense ratio to the low to mid 8% range in 2019. Term life margins will see modest pressure accordingly, but are expected to remain at or above 18.5% for the year. The financial supplement shows the ratio of premium ceded to the IPO coinsurance as a percentage of legacy direct premiums. Given that in 2017, we stop seeding policies that continue after reaching an end of their initial policy term, the level of premiums ceded to the IPO coinsurers has been declining faster than it had been prior to 2017. We expect the premiums ceded to the IPO coinsurers to continue to decrease by about 5 to 6% per year. And for these premiums as a percentage of legacy direct premiums to decline by 2 to 2.5% year-over-year over the next several years. In recent earnings calls, we have discussed the drivers of adjusted direct premium growth and provided the historical and estimated impact of these drivers. Last quarter, we communicated that adjusted direct premiums were expected to grow around 11% for 2019. While sales in the first quarter were lower than anticipated, 2019 adjusted direct premium growth should still be around 11% assuming that sales are 3% higher than the prior year for the remainder of the year. We expect adjusted direct premiums to continue to grow beyond 2019, but at a decreasing rate. We've shared that if issued policies increased by 3% per year, the adjusted direct premium growth rate should decline by about 1.5% per year for the next few years with a deceleration tapering off thereafter. The first column on the chart on slide seven depicts these estimates. The next three columns show how issued policy levels impact growth. Even if sales levels were flat, adjusted direct premiums would grow by about 9% in 2020 and 7% in 2021 highlighting the financial strength of the term life business and the continued benefit of the IPO reinsurance structure. Sales growth of 6% per year would lead to adjusted direct premiums growth of around 10% in 2020 and 9% in 2021, while 10% growth in sales would keep adjusted direct premiums growing around 10% per year for the years shown. Turning next to our investment and savings products segment on slide eight, revenues were flat year-over-year as elevated volatility in the financial markets at the end of 2018 carried over to the early part of the year creating headwinds for sales and client asset values. As markets improved during the quarter, both sales and client asset values recovered. Demand for variable annuities remains strong increasing to 27% of sales in the quarter versus 21% in the prior year period. This mix shift in sales is driving an increase in the sales base net revenue ratio as annuities generally have higher sales base earnings component than other investment products. Our client asset values recovered during the quarter. The low market levels at the beginning a 2019 put pressure on average client asset values causing a slight decline versus the prior year. Asset based revenues and commissions declined year-over-year accordingly. Since the launch of our Lifetime investment platform in the second quarter of 2017, we have transition clients from the Freedom Portfolio to our new Lifetime Platform for the final transfers occurring in January of this year. The Freedom Portfolio client fee structure included recordkeeping and custodian fees, whereas the Lifetime Platform does not. As a result, account-based revenues declined about 5% year-over-year and fee generating positions declined by 6%. We expect account-based revenues to grow modestly for the rest of the year as new retail mutual fund positions are added to our recordkeeping platform. Account base net revenue per fee generating position increased 10% to $3.20 during the first quarter of 2018 due to reductions in fees paid that we negotiated with our recordkeeping platform provider in December of 2017. The fee reductions are phased in over the contract period with the final reduction occurring in 2020. While revenues were flat, ISP income before income taxes increased 7%. This increase is largely attributable to lower segregated fund DAC amortization year-over-year of $3 million, which was impacted by both the strong Canadian markets this quarter and the less favorable market in 2018. The change in DAC amortization was the main driver of the increase in the asset base net revenue ratio. Operating expenses in this segment were consistent with the prior year period. Let's move now to a review of our invested asset portfolio and adjusted net investment income. On slide nine, the 8% or $1.6 million increase in adjusted net investment income was principally due to growth in the invested asset portfolio year-over-year. The portfolio yielded 3.85% at the end of the quarter and the yield on maturities was almost identical to that of new investments. The average yield on maturities for the rest of the year is relatively high at 4.6%, so it may be difficult to replace the maturing yield with new purchases at current market rates. The average yield on maturities in 2020 of approximately 3.5% will create a lower hurdle for improving portfolio yield with new purchases. We expect to see continued growth in the size of the invested asset portfolio as our business grows which would largely offset the yield headwind in 2019. Now let's move to slide 10 for a further discussion of insurance and other operating expenses. Companywide expenses for the quarter were 109 million or about 5% higher than the prior year period. First quarter expenses are typically elevated due to the annual grant of management equity awards. We expect second quarter expenses to be approximately $104 million. Last quarter I provided a detailed outline of investments we plan to make in 2019 indicating an expected growth rate in total insurance and other operating expenses of 6 to 8%. First quarter spending on various infrastructure and modernization products was lower than our projections, but we believe this is largely due to timing of projects and we expect expense levels to pick up as the year unfolds. At this time, we are not adjusting our full year expense estimate and still expect insurance and other operating expenses to increase between 24 and 31 million over 2018 on a full year basis. Regarding allocation between segments we would expect approximately two thirds of the annual increase to fall in the Term Life segment driven by the growth in the premium base and the implementation of various term life related initiatives. The remainder of the increase should be split between the ISP and C&O segments. We remain disciplined in how we approach these investments and will revise our estimates in the next earnings call if necessary. As I wrap up and move to slide 11, our tax rate of 22.7% during the quarter is consistent with our full year estimate of approximately 23%. As we noted in our release taxes in the first quarter of the prior year included a benefit of 1.8 million associated with the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017, which reduced the gap tax rate by 2.1%. We will remain as we have since our IPO committed to maintain a strong balance sheet and continue to demonstrate a strong capital position with Primerica Life Insurance Company's statutory risk-based capital ratio estimated to be around 460% and holding company liquidity of 167 million at the end of March. We will continue to take out ordinary dividends primarily from Primerica Life to the extents available with the goal of maintaining our near-term RBC ratio in the low to mid 400% range. Now let's open the line up for questions.