Alison Rand
Analyst · Citi
Sure, sure. So first on claims, we do think this is definitely seasonal experience. We have [indiscernible] -- if you look back over the last 8 or 9 years, I'd say 6 or 7 of them, the first quarter had been elevated. So this is not atypical from what we've seen. And in fact, it was elevated in last year as well. This year, I'd say the claims were about $3 million-or-so elevated vis-à-vis whether it be a historical norm on an average-quarter basis, which was actually slightly better than it was last year, but relatively in line. We did see sort of that experience last year maybe a little closer to the $4 million range. So again, we don't look at that as having any ongoing issues and in fact, believes like I said, that it's pretty consistent with what we've seen in the first quarter in the past. With regard to persistency, there's a couple of things going on here. We generally believe that our persistency levels are pretty much stabilized as -- at where they are right now. We've been doing a lot of work on this just to make sure we're comfortable with it. And in fact, some of the things that we've seen have to do a little bit with the disasters -- natural disasters that unfortunately the country was faced with last year and quite frankly the year before. We specifically saw last year a block of policies that we had been asked to not lapse come and lapse in Louisiana in the first quarter of 2017. This year, we've been actually accruing, if you will, for that expected lapses even when states have asked us to restrict lapses. That being said, when we look at our first quarter experience, we are seeing a bit of an ongoing lag in a couple of regions that really were impacted, Puerto Rico, Louisiana being 2 of them. And so there is some of that, which we hope will taper out throughout the rest of the year. The other thing to mention, and it is -- we shortcut this and say it's the DAC ratio. But I will remind you that the DAC amortization ratio actually includes the line item of insurance commission. And because of this one program that we changed with our sales force, the compensation program, we can no longer defer the expense. So you're actually seeing it hit quickly or hit now rather than being deferred and amortized. That being said, it doesn't change the overall economics of the program. The amount of compensation total outlay is the same. But we do think that that's impacting the ratio by about 20 basis points year-over-year. And so if you ultimately look at it, I think what we've said is that on a full year basis, we expect the ratio to be around 16, which is really very consistent with what it was in 2017.