Earnings Labs

Primerica, Inc. (PRI)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 7, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Primerica Second Quarter 2015 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathryn Kieser, Investor Relations Officer and Executive Vice President. Please go ahead.

Kathryn Kieser

Analyst

Thank you, Amy. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Primerica's second quarter earnings call. A copy of our earnings release, financial supplement, presentation and the webcast for today's call are available on our website at investors.primerica.com. Following the reading of the Safe Harbor provisions, Glenn Williams, our Chief Executive Officer and Alison Rand, our Chief Financial Officer, will deliver prepared remarks, then we'll open it up for questions. We reference certain non-GAAP financial measures in our press release and on this call. These non-GAAP measures have limitations and reconciliations between non-GAAP and GAAP financial measures are attached to our press release. You can see our GAAP results on page 3 of the presentation. We will also make forward-looking statements in accordance with the Safe Harbor provisions of the Securities Litigation Reform Act. The company does not revise or update these statements to reflect new information, subsequent events or changes in strategy. Risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially from these expressed or implied are discussed in the company's 2014 annual report on Form 10-K, as updated quarterly by our form on Form 10-Q. Now I'll turn the call over to Glenn.

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Raymond James

Thanks, Kathryn. Good morning, everyone. Today I'll discuss our second quarter performance and distribution results, as well as update our perspective on the Department of Labor's fiduciary rule proposal by giving you a broader understanding of our business model. Beginning on page 3, you can see that during the second quarter of 2015 operating revenues increased by 6% compared with the prior year period. Strong operating results were driven by growth in the term life segment, including 14% growth in life insurance policies issued and a 10% increase in net premiums. The investment and savings product segment continue to perform well with a 9% increase in product sales and 7% growth in average client asset values year-over-year. Operating results reflect higher than historically incurred claims in the current quarter compared to incurred claims in the year ago period which were lower than historical levels. Net investment income continues to be modestly impacted by lower yields on invested assets and ongoing capital deployment. The comparison of year-over-year results was also negatively impacted by the declining Canadian dollar value which reduced operating revenues by approximately $7.5 million and net operating income by approximately $1.5 million. While net operating income was consistent with the prior year period, net operating income per diluted share increased 7% to $0.93, reflecting solid performance and ongoing return of capital to stockholders through share repurchases. ROAE expanded to 17% on an operating basis versus 16.3% in the second quarter of 2014. The significant increase in ROAE from 14.6% in the first quarter of 2015 primarily reflects the expensing of equity awards granted to retirement eligible employees in the first quarter, strong performance and continued share repurchases. Between April 1st and August 5th we repurchased another $100.3 million or 2.2 million shares of Primerica common stock, for a total…

Alison Rand

Analyst · SunTrust

Thank you, Glenn and good morning, everyone. Today I will cover the quarter's operating results as I normally do. Then I'd like to spend some time reviewing broad business dynamics of both term life and investment savings products which hopefully will help you frame any potential impact of the proposed DOL's fiduciary rule on our business. Starting with term life, on slide 6, we experienced strong topline growth year-over-year. Our 9% growth in operating revenue was driven by a 10% increase in net premiums and an 8% increase in allocated net investment income. While the percentage of our assets are invested assets allocated to term life continue to grow, the associated increase in allocated net investment income was partially offset by a lower effective portfolio yield. During the quarter, the ratio of benefits and claims, net to adjusted direct premiums increased to 60.7% versus 58.9% in the prior year period. In general, we'd expect the second quarter to have a relatively higher ratio due to the impact of seasonally strong persistency on the change in benefit reserve. That said, in any given quarter, the level of incurred claim in relation to historical norms will cause fluctuations in the overall benefit and claims ratio. The increase in the ratio year-over-year was largely due to incurred claims that were about $1 million above historical levels this quarter whereas in the prior year period incurred claims were about $2 million below historical levels. The ratio of term life DAC amortization and insurance commission to adjusted direct premium of 13.8% was consistent year-over-year as both periods experienced seasonally strong persistency. In contrast to the benefits and claims ratio, strong seasonal persistency drives term life DAC amortization down which generally results in a much lower DAC and insurance commission expense ratio in the second quarter…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Steven Schwartz at Raymond James.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Raymond James

I have a question but let me ask a couple and get back in line. I'm going to ask two on with concern with the DOL I think. First, Glenn, in your comment, one of the appendices was a letter by Gibson Dunn, by Eugene Scalia or one of his minions. If the BIC, if the rule is adopted as currently seen, are you prepared to sue the DOL?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Raymond James

To answer a question like that you'd have to see what the final rule is and the overall industry reaction to the rule. It's impossible to anticipate how that might turn out without seeing the final rule. There's just too broad a series of possibilities to make a decision like that, so that one's just too difficult to answer at this point. And really --

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Raymond James

Well, my caveat was if the rule is adopted as is.

A - Glenn Williams

Analyst · Raymond James

Yes. And it really is an industry-wide issue. You know, we're traveling in the pack with the rest of the industry on the vast majority of the issues with the rule. They are not unique to Primerica. They may apply to us a little differently because of our unique market, but generally the entire industry is in reasonable agreement about the issues and concerns with the rule. So I think that is something that will be elevated to an industry level at the point the rule becomes final.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Raymond James

Okay. And then can we revisit the issue of internal consumption? That came up in the first quarter conference call. What was internal consumption this quarter?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Raymond James

Yes, our internal consumption stays very constant at about 20% of our sales over a year are made -- life insurance sales are made to either a recruit or a licensed agent, 80% are made to people who are neither of those two. And we don't see a lot of fluctuation in that number quarter to quarter or year to year, it's been very constant over a long period of time.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Raymond James

Okay, yes. One thing I'm a little confused about from the discussion last quarter when I was looking it over, is it pretty much -- I guess the question is, what is the definition of a recruit? I mean isn't really everybody you talk to a recruit? I mean isn't that the idea?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Raymond James

No. We define a recruit as someone who has completed infinite business application and paid the $99 fee to join with good funds. And so, you know, it's a very definable group of people that we can identify every day and we do. And so then we can also track that and know if they buy a product from us, either a life product or an investment product, we can match that up.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Raymond James

Okay and then it's like 14% of those people become licensed agents. Okay. I'll leave it there and get back in line.

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Raymond James

That number, Steven, that number is higher. That number tracks at about 18% over time. It fluctuates. As recruits spike, the number will drift down. As they normalize, the number goes back up, as you might imagine would happen in a pipeline kind of concept where it takes time for people to get licensed. But it stays closer to 18% than any other number.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from [indiscernible] at UBS.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Just want to go back to slide 11 to start, if I could. Alison, as you were talking about some of the potential changes that you might make to the model, I think you referenced, you know, clients maybe moving from variable annuities to mutual funds or managed accounts. And then you gave some sort of fee rate disclosures that I didn't quite follow, so can you walk us through that again? If a client moves from one to the other, what would the fee rate impact be on the company?

Alison Rand

Analyst · SunTrust

Sure. And I didn't give specifics, but let me give you some general thoughts around that. If a client were to move to our managed account platform, we do believe that over the lifetime of that client our profitability would be consistent with where it was in say a variable annuity. The main consideration there is that it would be far less weighted towards point of sale. Our managed account platform obviously pays the same fee on assets over time. And so the fees would be a little less front weighted, but over the long-term, we think they would be consistent. On a mutual fund, we generally feel the same. Specifically, the reason they get closer to each other is that our mutual fund platform, as well as our managed account platform for that matter, allows us to utilize our servicing, our recordkeeping platform, for accounts. So we have another form of revenue outside of asset and sales which is that we provide recordkeeping, custodial related and other types of services for those clients really on -- in most cases on behalf of a transfer agent. So we have these other sources of revenue that we actually don't have available to us on variable annuities. So the long or short answer, I guess, is that over time we feel like the options are fairly consistent. We do think the geography of the earnings, vis-a-vis what the source of earnings is, would change. And we do think the timing of the earnings would change as they would become more backend loaded.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And then I guess, have you done any more work on what the potential additional costs could be from the DOL proposal?

Alison Rand

Analyst · SunTrust

At this point, not particularly because it really depends on whether we would be using the Best Interest Contract exemption and as it currently is written, our view is that we would not use that exemption. So if in fact that exemption became usable for us, we'd have to look at what the rules were and see what the costs associated with it were accordingly.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And then my last one on this is, the eight-month implementation time that is currently built into the draft, you know, we've heard some companies say that it would be next to impossible to comply with the proposal over an eight-month implementation period. Can you provide your thoughts on how Primerica would be in such a situation?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Raymond James

I think a lot of those timeline challenges are questions about the advice or the Best Interest Contract exemption. As Alison just pointed out, the way we see it right now as currently written, we would operate outside of that. Most of the concerns that I've seen from industry have been if you're trying to operate within BIC, can you provide all of the requirements that BIC has in it within the eight-month timeframe, can you build all of that. And so that's a piece of the challenge. That's a piece of the reason we would make the decision to operate outside of BIC is because we don't believe that eight-month preparation period is long enough. Should BIC change and we reevaluate it, clearly a lot of the discussion, if you're aware of it going on with the DOL, is this very issue. And one of the potential changes to BIC would be it would lighten all of that load and therefore not as much would need to be done during the eight-month period. So I think it's a question of whether BIC becomes workable, where we would reconsider, but currently, as Alison said, we're planning to operate outside of BIC in its current form.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Mark Hughes at SunTrust.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · SunTrust

So best to understand this as if you operate outside of the exemption, the basic requirement is that you have sort of managed accounts or level fees. You're not generating commissions based on the products you sell, you're just generating fees based on assets. Is that correct?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · SunTrust

Yes. I think there are a couple of different possibilities there and how we weight each one. And clearly larger accounts that can move on into the fiduciary world that we already play in with managed accounts is one option for our larger account balances. As we look outside of the Best Interest Contract, but still under the DOL rule, you're exactly right, level fee products, you know we made some reference in here to the possibility of working with providers in our qualified plan business to make sure that we met all the requirements for level fees and so forth and that's another option. And then, of course, a question is whether the non-qualified business grows as a result of all of this if it's not made as flexible as necessary and do you just identify some clients with small accounts who don't have access to a qualified account at this point, they accumulate money in a non-qualified account and later perhaps move to a qualified account, you know assuming it meets all of the annual requirements for contributions and so forth. So, the balance between those three or other options is what we're still working through, but we're looking at all of those possibilities.

Alison Rand

Analyst · SunTrust

Just want to say specifically, you mentioned that we'd only have asset-based. There is an exemption that -- the level fee exemption would allow us to continue to have sales-based and account-based and other forms of earnings, they would just have to obviously be level across all of our products and providers. So we would anticipate still having some forms of earnings that were sales-based or account-based.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · SunTrust

Is there a way to -- I guess one concern would be that the incentives for your sales people would be reduced, that the lower commissions would be spread out over the life of the accounts. You know, eventually, they would make as much, but upfront there wouldn't be as much juice in it to make the sale today. Is there a way to provide sufficient incentives to keep people motivated?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · SunTrust

Well I think that's a great question, Mark, but that is not directly required under the current rule to say that upfront commissions or higher first year commissions have to be eliminated, they just have to be levelized among products. And so I think, obviously there are always questions of what is the pressure on compensation or on cost of investments and is the pressure downward at the point of sale. But we don't assume that under the DOL rule that an upfront sales charge has to go away, as long as within our qualified business, as Alison kind of broke down the pieces of our business to focus on the part that's under discussion, you know we could still charge an upfront sales charge as long as it was level across all the products we were offering, based on the DOL rule or our understanding of it currently. If there are separate pressures industry-wide for those fees to come down, that's a little bit of a separate discussion, but we're not feeling those right now. And then the other thing is, I think you need to look at the total cost that those clients are paying, because in most current product structures, those that have an upfront sales charge have a lower ongoing annual charge and in fact for a long-term investor, the net is better on the A share model that exists today than it is, for example, on C share model if you're talking about the traditional mutual fund world which is why there was so much controversy around C shares. And so we don't anticipate -- that's not a direct DOL issue. Obviously it's part of the discussion, we're considering it, but we don't expect upfront sales charges to disappear as a result of this. So we do believe we'll continue to be able to motivate our sales force and continue to drive them toward the appropriate sales for our client base as we come through this.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · SunTrust

Are you saying as long as the fees are consistent across all of the products that you offer, then you can operate outside of the exemption and you will be consistent with the DOL requirements?

Alison Rand

Analyst · SunTrust

Yes, let me clarify something. That is -- one of the things I see where you're getting the 1% is we can have a managed account platform, a true fiduciary platform, as well as a brokerage platform. Within the brokerage platform is where we would be using this level fee exemption. So the levelization would not be necessarily to match what we do in a managed account which by the way, we accept that a managed account is for a larger account holder. That's where it generally makes more sense to have that type of fee structure. But so the levelization would have to be within anything we sell through our brokerage type channel.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · SunTrust

Right. and the level would be level across products, but across time the fees could be different, they could be frontend loaded?

Alison Rand

Analyst · SunTrust

That is correct.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · SunTrust

And then, Alison, you had made this in giving your hypotheticals on the term life business should grow at least 5% and probably 8% to 10% even if sales were flat. And then you said, but if sales grew, then there would be another $35 million in -- to understand this correctly -- another $35 million in operating profit by 2019. So we would take today, we would grow it at a certain pace and then we would add $35 million to reflect a scenario where sales were growing. Is that your point?

Alison Rand

Analyst · SunTrust

Yes. And so what you have to make sure, if you're building a model, not to do is assume both growth in that baseline as well as growth on top of it. So if you assume that we basically were running at steady state production and then added that $35 million pretax in 2019, that's what we were trying to describe. And my reason for doing that, a lot of you all know this already but just to remind people, is just, you know, we've seen great results in our term life business. And by the way, I think we've hopefully explained to you why we don't think the DOL rule impacts that aspect of our business. And when you see great results in it, unfortunately you don't see them right away in your income statement. One, our book of business is already very large, so it's hard to see that growth. And two, as we all know, it takes a considerable amount of time for life insurance earnings to really emerge and build in the financial statement. So I wanted to use this as an opportunity to remind people that there is really that upside potential. And the fact that we're seeing such robust growth in our term life business right now really should translate into growing -- and by the way, also very sustainable and with stable recurring earnings in the future.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · SunTrust

And then a final question. Could you kind of bracket, you say eventually you'll get back to a consistent level of profitability. If we take that 2014 pie chart, how much could it be down if you adjust the business model in the ways you seem to be anticipating here? I know this is a scenario based, but how much would it be done initially and then how long would it take to rebuild to parity?

Alison Rand

Analyst · SunTrust

Okay. So let me kind of break it into pieces. And unfortunately I don't have a real clear answer because we don't know what the rule will ultimately be. But we think the $58 million is fine and intact. We think the $21 million -- I'm looking at the pie chart -- is fine and intact. The $35 million of asset-based, we actually think, near-term, there would be very little decline in that number. Again, I don't know if we have -- and the extent to which we can grow it will depend on what we can sell, but just what kind of pressure we have from our current state, I think that number is largely intact near-term. The $32 million of sales-based is what's currently at question. We mentioned last quarter there is some component of our sales that are, you know, monthly preauthorized checking sales, where somebody is making a $50 or $100 contribution to an IRA every month and have been doing that for the last eight years, we'll continue to get that money in and we believe that stays under the transition provision, so that's intact. The rest of it is going to become a question of where it goes, what the rule says. And if the rule is not workable, if we can come up with a levelized approach to things or whether we have to start moving our business to a managed account. If we go to a levelized approach, I think the ongoing fee -- I mean excuse me, the current earnings would be much closer to where they are today. But if we have to go or we choose to go to more of a managed account profile, then today you see a dip, but you pick that up pretty quickly over time.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · SunTrust

In your view, is the levelized fee is consistent with the DOL rule as written today?

Alison Rand

Analyst · SunTrust

So our view is and the lawyers are going to love me for this, there's a 408(g) exemption is what we would be looking at.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · SunTrust

Was that a yes to my question?

Alison Rand

Analyst · SunTrust

Yes.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Sean Dargan at Macquarie.

Sean Dargan

Analyst · Macquarie

You know, I think what some of the [indiscernible] are concerned with beyond the immediate exposure here is the motivation of your sales force to sell ISP products. So I just want to make sure I have the, I guess the numbers framed right here. So you have approximately 100,000 life licensed reps, of which 20,000, give or take, are licensed to sell mutual funds. Correct?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Macquarie

That's pretty close, yes.

Sean Dargan

Analyst · Macquarie

Okay. And so 1000 of those reps do half of the ISP business?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Macquarie

Yes, that was the stat we gave you, very close to half of the business, as personal producers, that's correct. They're the ones that write that business.

Sean Dargan

Analyst · Macquarie

Okay. And those producers, is this their primary source of income or are they primarily, you know, making a living off of selling ISP products?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Macquarie

Well they're absolutely making a living off of their Primerica income and you're correct that the vast majority of their Primerica income at that extreme -- I mean our business, like so many businesses, looks like a barbell. It's got people that are extremely productive on one end in the ISP business and extremely productive on the other end in the insurance business and of course we're always working to draw people to the middle and be the best at both worlds, unless we need to focus on them where they are, as we're doing right this moment, to understand them better. But yes, you're on the right track I believe with what you're asking.

Sean Dargan

Analyst · Macquarie

Okay. I'm just trying to frame, so for the other 19,000 mutual fund licensed reps, do you have a ballpark figure of their average annual commission that they earn?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Macquarie

No, I don't have that with me, Sean. Because we would look at that -- you know, we look at it as total commissions. As well as broken down between the two primary areas of life and ISP. And then remembering that even a significant portion of those are going to be part-time and so when you think about what that expectation of that amount needs to be, you've got to figure all that in and I don't have that in front of me.

Sean Dargan

Analyst · Macquarie

But would it be your -- I guess would the intent be to get the most productive ISP sales people all registered as IARs?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Macquarie

It would certainly be a piece of our plan. I mean what we want to do, Sean, is make sure that we have a rescue plan, a safe place for those most productive people to be first. And make sure that we're, you know, taking care of their clients, accommodating their needs as business people and continue to keep them productive and profitable for the company. And I think it's an advantage that that's a relatively small number that we need to make sure we've got a specific plan to keep them active, keep them productive. You asked a question earlier about the motivation for the kind of rank and file. Co clearly a piece of that is their compensation and a piece of that is their compensation at the time of sale, but that's not their only motivation. We want to make sure we understand, you know and feel like they can be paid appropriately for the service they provide to their clients and that the timing of that is the best possible. But if some of that timing starts to shift, we have other motivational capabilities. You know, people aren't just in our investment business on a part-time basis just for the money they make. They understand that it's a part of the job they need to do for their clients. They understand that this part of our business for them is a business that builds compensation over time for them. I explained earlier people enter our life insurance business first, that's because you can make money quicker in the life insurance business. And they start to add an investment business, especially these that we're talking about that are the rank and file, the 19,000 if you will and they build that over time. That's their expectation. So extending that timeframe a little bit is not perhaps as sensitive an issue as someone might perceive when you first hear this, if we had to go down that path. So I think we've got the capability -- we have a very flexible business model and we can adjust it as needed to make sure that we continue to use all the motivational capabilities that we have to keep those people moving.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Colin Devine at Jefferies.

Colin Devine

Analyst · Jefferies

Just a couple questions here and clarify, with respect to the ISP production, you know you were mentioning the 1000 reps. Are they all in the U.S.? Just so we're distinguishing between the U.S. and Canada, obviously Canada is not at risk with the deal. That would be number one. Number two, if we can change topics. You know, you were talking about product enhancements, perhaps if you could spend a minute or two discussing those. And then lastly, with respect to commissions, I think it would be very helpful to get some granularity as to how those differ across your various products. Thank you.

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Jefferies

Okay. Let me pick off those, Colin, if I could kind of one at a time. Yes, the discussion we're having is about our U.S. ISP business. About the breakdown of our total life -- or total sales force on the ISP side, a little over 17,000 of that group is in the U.S. and I think we, you know, make that public at least once a year. So that's a number that's out there. And what we've been discussing today is all pertinent, the stats surrounding and so forth, to our U.S. business. And our Canadian business does behave a little bit differently and of course these rules don't apply to them. When we talk about product --

Colin Devine

Analyst · Jefferies

I just, I want to be very careful here with the numbers. So, the 1000, it's 1000 out of the 17,000.

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Jefferies

Correct.

Colin Devine

Analyst · Jefferies

And then of total ISP earnings or of just U.S. ISP earnings which portion are they contributing? Sorry, I just want to be exact.

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Jefferies

U.S.

Colin Devine

Analyst · Jefferies

Okay. And what is that percentage again of U.S. ISP earnings?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Jefferies

It wasn't earnings, it was --

Alison Rand

Analyst · Jefferies

U.S., it's 52% of U.S. ISP sales.

Colin Devine

Analyst · Jefferies

How would that compare to earnings?

Alison Rand

Analyst · Jefferies

I would guess it would be fairly close but I'd have to actually do some work. I mean our book of business has been around longer in the U.S. than in Canada, but I don't know. I guess my suggestion to you would be look in the supplement and see how we split the assets between U.S. and Canada and you can gauge it from that.

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Jefferies

All right. Product enhancements, I'm assuming we're staying focused mainly on the ISP side of the business. As you know, we've continued to add product providers as well as products going back several years when we first added the managed accounts business, the advisory business and of course we've recently expanded that product line within the single partner that we have currently in that product line. On the variable annuity side, we've added a number of new product providers, as well as on the fixed index annuity side. And so we've seen expansion in those types of products. Our mutual fund line has not brought on -- we brought on a couple of new partners, but they have not been significant in sales up to this point. But as Alison mentioned, moving one of our long-time partners onto our platform, you know, gives us an ability to work more closely with them, plug into them better through our technology and so forth and also provide some of the service that they do to clients which creates an income stream for us. So there are a number of fronts we've been working on, on the ISP side for product enhancements. And of course there's a whole different list of what we've been doing on the life side. I'm not sure if that was part of your question or not. And then your commission question again, refresh my memory on that one.

Colin Devine

Analyst · Jefferies

Just, you know, you talked about how those vary across products. So perhaps you could just expand on that since that clearly is one area that could change if you go to a level commission structure with the DOL.

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Jefferies

Right, let me go first maybe and then I'll toss it to Alison for the detailed numbers behind it. But we view our product mix as being reasonably interchangeable from a bottom line perspective. As Alison has explained often, there's a timing difference between whether a product has an upfront commission versus ongoing compensation. But over the lifetime of a client, we see not a lot of difference -- not enough difference that we're trying to drive product mix from an incentive -- of course you shouldn't be doing it anyway -- but you know we're neutral on that, okay. We have more of an open architecture for all of the right reasons and one of them is the question you're asking. Now, as we shift from product to product, you're exactly right, the timing of that compensation could differ and also the question of whether we have fee income off the accounts is the other piece that Alison walked through. So, Alison, I don't know if you want to reiterate anything you said earlier.

Alison Rand

Analyst · Jefferies

I mean I think you've covered it very well, but just to reiterate what I said earlier. And again, I think you need to, from the levelization standpoint, you need to look at just what would be offered in the brokerage platform. So the managed account really is sort of separate to that. And so those key products are really going to be your variable annuities, obviously your other annuities as well and then mutual funds. And as I mentioned, the ongoing asset-based earnings on mutual funds and variable annuities is fairly consistent. There are different components, but when all is said and done, our net earnings are fairly consistent. And on a sales base, as is common, we generally pay -- or earn, I should say, more on a variable annuity upfront, as it is well known, is a more expensive product because it's an insurance product and provides guarantees that you obviously don't have in a mutual fund. So while we do think if there was a shift to more mutual funds or we had to weight something more towards mutual fund compensation upfront, that would be lower, there is, as Glenn mentioned and I mentioned earlier, the ability to generate a fee income, that we do not currently get under variable annuities, that would likely help to offset that differential.

Colin Devine

Analyst · Jefferies

Okay. One follow-up then. Going back to the beginning, the 17,000 U.S. reps that are selling funds and VAs. You know, clearly you expect, no matter which way the DOL goes, that 1,000 of them, as I think said you're going to do whatever it takes to protect them. Looking at the other 16,000, what do you think -- or could you put a number out there of what you expect the attrition rate might be if this goes ahead? Because I would assume the amount of revenues those people would generate is just insufficient to keep them in the business. Is that a fair presumption?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Jefferies

No, we don't look at it like that at all, Colin. Again, of those other 16,000, you know some are part-time, some are full-time, some produce a significant portion of their income from securities, some don't. Some have much larger life insurance businesses. And so we're not anticipating -- we haven't seen any impact yet of concern about the DOL on our whole recruiting, licensing and retention process. As we described earlier, we feel very good about the momentum we have in the fundamentals of our business. And that's in the face of us in constant conversation with our sales force about this DOL process. We keep them updated every month on what's going on because it's an important topic of interest. And we would not anticipate, even under the current DOL rule, that we would see a different dynamic attrition of the existing sales force in any different way than we see today, whether it's the 1,000 or whether it's the other 16,000.

Alison Rand

Analyst · Jefferies

I would say the other thing there too, Colin, is most of those 16,000, if you will, are in the organizations of the 1,000, okay. So they're in their business hierarchies. And so one of the benefits we have is our sales force is a major provider of influence and change and moving along in change. So to the extent we can work positively with that smaller group of people, they'll be partnered with us in really trying to teach the new regime, whatever it is, to those other 16,000 people. So, you know, sometimes people look at our large numbers and say how do you make 20,000 people change. Well, the good thing is we'll focus on the small group and that small group will actually push the change down and create the training and the face-to-face interaction to make it more workable for everybody in the organization.

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Jefferies

Okay. Well, we appreciate everyone's time today. We feel like we've delivered strong production and solid financial results in the first half of this year. And we're certainly encouraged by our post-convention activity levels and plan to build on that positive momentum to continue to grow sales, increase earnings and enhance shareholder value long-term. Thank you, everybody.

Operator

Operator

The conference is now concluded. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you for attending today's presentation.