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Primerica, Inc. (PRI)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 10, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Primerica Q4 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathryn Kieser, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Kathryn Kieser

Analyst

Thanks Dan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we discuss Primerica's results for the fourth quarter of 2014. Yesterday afternoon we issued our press release reporting financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2014. A copy of the press release is available in the investor relations section of our website at investors.primerica.com. With us on the call this morning are Rick Williams, our Chairman and co-CEO; John Addison, Chairman of Primerica Distribution and co-CEO; Glenn Williams, President and Incoming Chief Executive Officer and Alison Rand, our CFO. We reference certain non-GAAP financial measures in our press release and on this call. These non-GAAP measures are provided because management uses them in making financial, operating and planning decisions and in evaluating the company's performance. We believe these measures will assist you in assessing the company's underlying performance for the periods being reported. These non-GAAP measures have limitations and reconciliations between non-GAAP and GAAP financial measures are attached to our press release. In the fourth quarter of 2014, net operating income excludes the after-tax impact of both realized investment gains and losses and the $4.2 million expenses related to the co-CEO transition agreements described in our form 8-K dated January 2, 2015. You can see our GAAP results on page three of the presentation. On today's call we will make forward-looking statements in accordance with the Safe Harbor Provision of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include any statements that may project, indicate or imply future results, events, performance or achievements and may contain words such as expect, intend, plan, anticipate, estimate and believe or similar words derived from those words. They are not guarantees and such statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ material from these statements. For a discussion of these risks please see the risk factors contained in our form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013. This morning's call is being recorded and webcast live on the Internet. The webcast and corresponding slides will be available in the investor relations section of our website for at least 30 days after the presentation. After the prepared remarks, we will open the call to questions from our dial-in participants. Now, I'll turn the call over to Rick.

Rick Williams

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

Thank you Kathryn and good morning everyone. Welcome to Primerica's fourth quarter 2014 earnings call. In January we announced the promotion of Glenn Williams, our current president, to Chief Executive Officer effective April 1, 2015. For several years John and I have worked closely with the Board on succession plans and we both feel that the healthy state of the company makes this the right time for a leadership transition. Our decision was solidified as we saw momentum building in the second half of 2014 with growth in the size of the sales force, solid core performance across business segments as well as EPS and return on equity expansion year-over-year. Glenn possesses a tremendous depth of understanding of our business. He joined Primerica in 1981. For the last 15 years he has successfully overseen marketing for all of Primerica's product lines and has worked closely with us on strategic initiatives. Prior to this role, Glenn was the Chief Executive Officer of our Canadian operations. His strong relationships with our sales force leaders and commitment to the business are well known throughout the organization. Glenn's deep enterprise-wide experience and exceptional leadership skills make him the ideal person to continue Primerica's growth trajectory. Glenn, please provide your perspective on the transition.

Glenn Williams

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Thank you Rick and good morning everyone. Today I'm joining the call from Puerto Rico where I'll be joined by 1400 of our representatives who qualified for this incentive trip. As Rick said, we worked very closely together for years and I'm grateful for John and Rick's leadership during that time. I'm honored to be selected as Primerica's next CEO and excited to lead our strong and experienced team of sales force leaders and corporate executives. In January we held our annual sales force leadership kickoff meeting in Atlanta followed by nine regional RVP events where I cast my vision for the future. I talked about building on the successful strategy John and Rick have set in motion by launching strategic initiatives to accelerate success. Between now and our biannual convention in July we're working on new incentive programs, sales force support and cutting-edge technology to drive organic growth in 2015. The feedback from our sales force and employees on both the CEO transition and our plans for 2015 has been very positive. I look forward to speaking with you again in more detail on our first quarter earnings call in May.

Rick Williams

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

Thanks, Glenn. In 2014 we delivered shareholder value by focusing on initiatives to drive long-term sales and earnings growth while actively deploying capital. Beginning on slide 4 you can see operating revenues for the full year 2014 increased 9% to $1.34 billion driven by 11% growth in Term Life adjusted direct premium and strong investment and savings products performance compared to 2013. Positive market conditions as well as enhancements to our ISP product offerings led to a 9% increase in ISP sales and 8% increase in client asset values at the end of 2014 versus the year ago period. Net operating income grew in-line with operating revenues, up 9% to $182.8 million driven by business growth and a modest 4% increase in insurance and other operating expenses of $11.8 million in 2014 versus 2013. Higher employee related expenses, including $4.6 million of accelerated compensation expense for equity awards with retirement provisions in the third quarter of 2014 were largely offset by higher legal fees and expenses occurred in 2013. The weakening of the Canadian dollar during 2014 also negatively impacted net operating income by approximately $4 million. In 2014 net investment income continued to experience downward pressure primarily due to lower yield on invested assets and capital deployment throughout the year. The 14% increase in net operating earnings per diluted share to $3.31 for the year and a 60 basis point increase in return on equity to 15.3% compared with 2013 were driven by solid earnings growth and active capital deployment in 2014. Primerica's total shareholder return of 27.8% significantly outpaced the S&P in 2014. We returned over 95% of operating earnings to shareholders in 2014 through $26.5 million of shareholder dividends and $147.9 million of common stock purchases. In 2014 5.5% of Primerica's common stock outstanding as of December…

John Addison

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Thanks Rick and good morning everybody. We're pleased with the continued growth in the size of our sales force, the increase in Term Life policies issued and the growth in ISP sales achieved in the fourth quarter. As you can see on slide 6 the size of our Life Insurance licensed sales force in the fourth quarter increased to 98,358. Recruiting of new representatives increased 13% versus the fourth quarter a year ago due to improved incentive programs and message. New Life Insurance licenses were in-line with the prior-year period as Life Insurance licenses growth typically lags recruiting. On a sequential quarter basis recruiting declined 12% and new Life Insurance licenses were down 3% from the third quarter reflecting seasonally lower recruiting and licensing levels during the holidays. The percentage of non-renewals and termination in relation to the size of the sales force slightly increased from the third quarter of 2014 and the fourth quarter of 2013. In the first quarter of 2015 we expect the size of our Life Insurance sales force to remain relatively flat with the fourth quarter of 2014 due to the seasonally lower new Life Insurance licenses following the lower recruiting levels typical for the fourth quarter. Successful incentive programs and business enhancements in 2014 drove 3% growth in both the size of our Life Insurance license sales force and issued Life Insurance policies versus 2013. The number of regional vice presidents which represent new distribution outlets across North America also increased year-over-year. During 2014 we ran short term incentive programs as well as two longer term contest trip competitions designed to increase recruiting levels in order to feed the licensing pipeline and grow the size of the sales force. Incremental enhancements were also made across the business including expanding the functionality of our client web portal, launching new mobile sales tools and representative training. In 2014 our investment in savings products business hit all-time records in both sales and client asset values and the size of our mutual fund licensed sales force increased 4% to 22,607 representatives at year end. During the year we expanded our Investment and Savings products offering the addition of four new managed account portfolios, new variable annuity providers AXA and AIG, as well as a new fixed index annuity underwritten by Lincoln. We also acquired more robust illustration software for the ISP business and we're proud to learn that Primerica was awarded Dalbar's Mutual Fund Service Award for Leadership in Customer Service in 2014, marking the 12th year in a row we have received this esteemed recognition. Alison will now discuss the financial results.

Alison Rand

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. My remarks today will cover fourth quarter segment operating results followed by a review of company-wide insurance and operating expenses, investment portfolio metrics and our capital deployment outlook for 2015. Starting with slide 7, in the fourth quarter Term Life operating revenues increased 10% driven by an 11% increase in adjusted direct premiums. Primary direct premiums grew 20% while legacy direct premiums declined 4%. We expect primary direct premiums to continue to experience strong growth as we layer on new business. Legacy direct premiums as well as premiums ceded to Citi should decline approximately 3% to 4% on a year-over-year basis as this closed block runs off. Allocated net investment income was positively impacted by $3 million of income on called securities as well as growth in assets required to support the segment, partially offset by a lower average portfolio yield versus fourth quarter a year ago. Term life operating income before income taxes was 22.7% of adjusted direct premiums and increased 6% over the prior-year period. In the fourth quarter total incurred claims return to historical levels while persistency experienced improve modestly over the quarter a year ago. Benefits and claims were slightly elevated in the fourth quarter at 59.7% of adjusted direct premiums due to improved persistency year-over-year and a $1.9 million reserve adjustment on certain supplemental policy benefits that waived premiums for disabled policyholders. DAC amortization contrasted on adjusted direct premiums due to more commissions being deferred in recent years, partially offset by improved persistency. DAC amortization and insurance commissions as a percentage of adjusted direct premiums of 15% was consistent with the prior-year period. Term Life insurance expenses increased with normal business growth and the runoff of Citi allowances. The ratio of insurance expenses to adjusted direct premiums was 8%…

Rick Williams

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

Thanks, Alison. Before we open up the call for questions let me just say that John and I have been honored to serve this great company for 30-plus years. We love Primerica and truly believe this is the right time for a leadership transition. We're proud of the last five years. The growth and success we've seen in the organization, the returns we've delivered to our stockholders, the opening of our new home office and the enthusiasm among our employees and most recently the handling of the baton to Glenn who our board recognized was the right successor for us. We look forward to continuing to serve on the Board of Directors in a non-executive capacity and we're confident that Glenn will continue to execute the initiatives to grow distribution capabilities, increase earnings and deploy capital to drive long-term shareholder value. Now let's open it up for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And our first question will come from Steven Schwartz of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

I want to stick with just on Canada for a second. Alison, just so I've got this right. The $4 million that you were citing, that was pre or post-tax?

Alison Rand

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

Post.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

That was post. And if the Canadian dollar was about 125 where it is now, we're talking about $7.5 million post? Could you maybe detail which segments that would -- which segments is it mostly in, I guess?

Alison Rand

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

Sure. I'm trying to make sure I agree with the $7.5 million. I think that sounds a tad bit high, but give or take you're talking somewhere in that general range, maybe $5 million or $6 million. But anyway, probably the largest place you will see it will actually be in ISP because a significant portion of our mutual fund and segregated fund type business actually does come from Canada. You will see it to some degree in Term Life, but again there it is really just a function of the premiums. And relatively speaking the U.S. premiums really do outweigh the Canadian premiums pretty substantially. When I talk about expenses, you'll actually see somewhat of a benefit for their operating expenses. The other places you might see it, specifically in some of the production counts. You will see it in AUMs, you'll see it in sales volumes for Canada and to a much lesser degree you'll see it in Term Life in force.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

And then one more on Canada, is there anything new on the testing issue there?

Rick Williams

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

No. Not at this point in time. The issues we've raised in our lawsuit have gotten attention in the industry and we're hopeful that regulators will focus on it. But there's nothing tangible at this point.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

Rick, is there some sense of timing or anything life that?

Rick Williams

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

Unfortunately not. These things run in due course and it's hard to tell.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark Hughes of SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

In looking at the sales force can you give us some sense on the recruiting momentum here in the first quarter? You did quite well in 4Q. Is that being sustained early in 2015?

John Addison

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

We had clearly, particularly in the second half of last year, I believe a very -- there were a lot of things done that really drove successful results in the business. As we say in there of a lot of it -- some of it was messaging focus, but some of it was very tangible and this contest where Glenn is in Puerto Rico and the rest of us will be joining him later was a very successful contest. And we did make some adjustments to like bring more newer people and stuff. So really successful things. The good news is that momentum has continued into the first quarter. It's not like we had a great fourth quarter and then the spigot turned off. Momentum has continued, been doing this a long time. All of us have, Glenn being a partner with Rick and I in it. I've learned one thing is that, as Winston Churchill said, success is never final. And spiking the ball in the end zone will get you a 15-yard penalty. But we feel good about the momentum that has continued into the first quarter of this year.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Do you think your sort of the yield in terms of licensing will it be similar to what we've seen or is the -- are these recruits, I'll just say, are they going to be comparable in terms of their success in getting licensed?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Yes we do believe that. On the longer term basis we still feel good about the 18% to 20% of recruits getting licensed and the recruits that came in the fourth quarter were every bit as good as any other recruit that we've had. So we still feel good about that. Again, there is seasonality with the mismatch between when a recruit comes in and when they actually get licensed. Over the long term we do think 18%-plus is still good.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Alison, could you talk about the benefits in claims expense in the legacy block? Where should that be trending? I think you talked about claims frequency maybe normalizing. I know you had a reserve adjustment, but is that -- throughout most of the year has been elevated certainly compared to the prior year. Where should that trend going forward?

Alison Rand

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

I will remind you again that come next quarter we won't be reporting legacy. So most of my comments really are focused on the block in the aggregate. So I'll talk to that but all address quickly what I think you're talking about with legacy. Specifically with legacy this quarter, the rate and the volume and the amount of claims, as I said, really did normalize. So the anomalies we saw last quarter really did not repeat [Technical Difficulty]. We had a little bit of something. Anyway and so you have that point correct. We did have that about $2 million adjustment this quarter and that really almost completely hit legacy, given what those policies are. Also just in general, legacy claims experience as a percentage of premium would be going up because you do obviously have much older policies there. You have policies that are heading end of term and so you look at what their mortality experience may or may be. The increasing trend on legacy is in fact something that we would expect. That said, if you look at the company in the aggregate we were at 59.7% of adjusted direct premiums. Again, that's a little bit at the high end of our range and we do expect that number to come back closer to 59% going forward.

Mark Hughes

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

And just to be clear, on the expenses you say $80 million to $82 million is sort of a one-timer with a $6 million equity award. And then going forward it would be $3 million lower. Is that to say $70 million or $77 million to $79 million in subsequent quarters?

Alison Rand

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

No. The way we've been doing is obviously giving you the update one quarter out. Specifically for the equity awards what you will see is that it will be theoretically $1 million lower than it would have been last year each quarter. That said, that's got a whole bunch of nuance because each year is obviously different with things that are happening. But just in the aggregate we wanted to make sure you were aware that that $6 million pop, if you will, partially comes back throughout the year. And again by 2017 you won't be seeing these year-over-year kind of nuances because we will have saved into all of our years the new vesting for retirement. The other things, though, that are in the first quarter that won't repeat in next quarter or second quarter, excuse me will be things like merit increases. So you'll see that pop from a year-over-year perspective. But then it will be in there forever. And then you have some other things that are just really one time in the first quarter on privacy and specifically tax mailings and things for our investment business. So there are some nuances. We generally see if you go back over time that the first quarter is our highest expense quarter. So it probably will come down lower than what you are describing. The other thing to consider is what happens with the Canadian exchange rate, because obviously as I mentioned earlier, the exchange rate will directly impact the Canadian expenses.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Dan Bergman of UBS. Please go ahead.

Dan Bergman

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

So first just wanted to ask a question on the sales force. It looked like the year-over-year change in the ending sales rep count remained solid but fell a little bit from about 5% in the first half of last year to about 3% in the quarter. So I just wanted to see if you had any additional thoughts on how this annual rate of growth should trend ahead? Are you still looking for that mid-single-digit growth rate over time and any thought on kind of what's required to achieve and sustain that level of growth?

Glenn Williams

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

I mean, going back to the core, we're looking for the mid-single-digit growth over time in the sales force. We were in the 3% to 4% range on a quarterly basis in 2014. You do get sort of the seasonality dynamics, as John mentioned, the first quarter because of the low recruiting in the fourth quarter has relatively low licensing in the first quarter and therefore the first quarter sales force remaining flat is actually pretty good. The dynamic that you did see in the fourth quarter was the non-renewal jumped up to 8.3% and as we've been guiding at around 8%, 8.5% but it's been 8% in the prior quarters and 7.7% in the third quarter. So there was a little headwind in the fourth quarter on non-renewal, but we still give the same guidance as we had in the past on the non-renewal rate.

Dan Bergman

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

And let me, I guess, shifting gears to Investment and Savings Products. Sales growth there was again quite strong in the quarter and it sounded like some of that strength was due to the recent product introductions. I wanted to see if you could give a little more color on how much of the fourth quarter growth came from these new products and whether we should view kind of the quarterly result as a run-rate or whether some of those sales was a more of a one-time pop that should dissipate over time?

Rick Williams

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Talk a little bit about the new products first. And just to give you a feel for the mix, we talked about the variable annuity business growth. And we have had introduced the AXA product about seven months ago and that now accounts for about 20% of our variable annuity sales. So you can sort of see that all of that's not incremental, but a piece of that is incremental in the business. Seg funds had a change momentum in the fourth quarter. Again, there was a good product introduction both on the variable annuity and the seg funds side. Those new products should help with continued momentum in 2015.

John Addison

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

And just two cents, number one, clearly the market being good. I mean, is the greatest thing we can have. But again to the messaging and focus and driven by our marketing team, there has been a significant focus in our sales force on the Investment and Savings business. One of the successful events last year was our contest we ran for our Investment and Savings producers to the Greenbrier. And with improvements in their illustration software, improvements in products but more importantly a real focus of the organization on the business along with the market, it significantly improved the business and the plan is to continue to do all those things. I can't speak for the market, that's you guys' job. But our focus is to continue to deliver Main Street families the right investment platform. And we believe Primerica is that answer.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Sean Dargan of Macquarie.

Sean Dargan

Analyst · Macquarie

Just following up on John's commentary on ISP. As ISP has contributed more to overall earnings, I think that's been reflecting favorably in your valuation. Can you just tell us about any initiatives you have to convert more of the licensed reps to securities reps?

Rick Williams

Analyst · Macquarie

To answer the question you didn't ask and I'll come back to the question you did ask. John talked about the focus on the securities business. And I've mentioned about the product introductions, but there has been quite of other additional focus on that business beyond that, that relates to the automation. About 70% of our securities business now comes in on sort of a handheld, a phone or an iPad. That's made life a lot easier for the reps to submit the business. What that also does is it makes it easier to train new people coming into the business to become productive in the business. We're also working on new illustration software that should help sales as well. As it relates to just initiatives to get agents licensed, there's a whole variety of training programs that we do have. You did see last year a 12% increase in the number of new securities licensed reps. The sales force itself, the security licensed sales force did grow 4%. Sort of working on trying to make it easier to get licensed has shown some benefit and are hopeful that that will continue.

John Addison

Analyst · Macquarie

And again, I'll talk focus in a very significant way. Nothing sells at Primerica like success. Our representatives as you well know, are independent contractors and they make decisions. We provide the environment, we provide the products, we provide the training, we provide the support, we provide motivation, but they provide the effort. They've got to build their business. And what people are seeing now is people having tremendous success in the investments business. And it's no longer viewed as a boutique business; it is viewed as a cornerstone of the company and they're seeing that reflected in the cash flows of the leaders that are succeeding at it. So besides the initiatives, the improvements, all of those things focus and continuing success and highlighting that Glenn and team will do will continue to drive this business.

Sean Dargan

Analyst · Macquarie

And do you see more willingness in the middle market in putting money to work in the markets now that we've had a couple of good back-to-back years in the equity markets? Has that changed the behavior of the clients at all?

John Addison

Analyst · Macquarie

What we see in the middle market right now is more confidence, that people actually feel that things are getting better. And for years, for several years people were saying things were getting better but the middle market was like I don't see things getting better. From the results, the biggest indicator that I would say is you saw the increase in the average size of both our variable annuity and our mutual fund sales. So yes, there is more confidence in the middle market right now.

Operator

Operator

And we have a follow-up question from Steven Schwartz of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

VA business, I'm trying to get something straight in my head here. I tend to think of the typical Primerica client contract holder as lower middle, middle income type of person, probably younger than normal, maybe for the industry as a whole and then you say your VA, your initial VA deposit is $89,000. That's lower, I think, than Raymond James' initial VA deposit, but that's still a lot of money. Is there a difference between who's in ISP and who's in term?

John Addison

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

Yes. Look one of, Steven, one of the things -- Primerica, if you look at our average client -- okay. You're right. I would say we're true -- if you look, average client we're middle market. But there is a pretty big standard deviation in that between who our people are and if you look at our ISP business. In our ISP sales force, they're seeing a lot of the clients that an Edward Jones sees or whatever. So some of these people have -- they have money and they're older. They're not as young as the typical life insurance person coming in. So when you look at our business, too much generality you can be too general with it and so in our ISP market, our guys that are out there very focused on that. They see people with a little more money. I don't know if you want to add to that.

Glenn Williams

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead

You're right, John. Our business does run the spectrum and the variable annuity products that we have do fit an income orientation for people who are looking towards retirement. And so when you get into that demographic of people looking for retirement, they do have a little -- it's not huge amounts of money, but it is some money generating the $89,000.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Colin Devine of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Colin Devine

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

Actually I remember when I learned a few years ago that the average VA tickets in Smith Barney was the same size as the average ticket you guys are seeing. It doesn't surprise me that they're that big. A couple questions for you. What new products do you have sort of in the pipeline? Are there any more VA additions or anything like that coming down? Second question is, I was quite impressed with the growth in the size of the mutual fund force, up 5%. Where do those people come from? Are they new additions to the Primerica family or are they conversions of just former life agents and how does that compare relative to the past? So that's the second question for you. And then if we can talk a little bit more on persistency. I appreciate references to it, but can we get a little more granularity on how persistency trends are in your term business?

Rick Williams

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

Yes, we're looking at adding another variable annuity provider in the next couple of months. We're not at liberty to say who that is and what product it is, but we're looking for additional expansion there. As it relates to the agents that are getting securities license, yes it is almost exclusively agents that have come into the business. They've gotten their district or division leader promotion; therefore they've built a team and begun to develop a client base. And as they start to focus on going to full-time, they go ahead and get their securities license. So it's rarely sort of people coming into the business initially. It is typically people who come into the business, have had some success and are looking to make this a full-time profession.

Colin Devine

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

How does that 5% increase compare to the past? Because it just seems to me the bulk of your earnings are coming from the registered reps. And this is really what's setting the sort of forward earnings momentum of your ability to get these people their securities license. So how is that trending?

Rick Williams

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

That was a significant improvement over the last couple of years. It had been flat for the couple of years prior to that.

Alison Rand

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

And the question on persistency, and I appreciate -- we don't provide a tremendous amount of granularity with regard to persistency. But to try to speak in some general terms, we have been seeing improvement in persistency over the course of the last several years after the downturn that we saw in the 2008 through say, 2010 period. Our first and second year persistency, which is what we really focus on because it actually has the most dramatic impact on our financials, again has been where we see most of this improvement. And that's a combination of not just the market -- excuse me, when I say the market, the overall economy and people just holding onto their policies, that we see across all durations. But specifically on the early parts of the years or early durations we've made a substantial push over the last few years with regard to programs with our sales force in order to really encourage and bolster our persistency results. With that said, our business in the first year -- we look at things on a 13th month basis. Our 13th month persistency is generally going to be lower than you would see for other term writers who are selling much larger policies to a different marketplace. But once we get past, really, the first and second duration we normalize. And then I'd say our persistency rates are very consistent with what you'd see in any other term writer.

Colin Devine

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

One final one for you so you don't feel too left out, with what's happened on the Canadian dollar and the fact it obviously it does meaningful impact your earnings, does that give you cause to think of starting to hedge some of the currency risk or not?

Alison Rand

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

Yes and it's interesting. We talk about that quite a bit. You can look at it from a couple of different perspectives. One is from the balance sheet perspective and then the earnings perspective. We really haven't needed to look at -- let me -- hold on for a second. Let me go back to the balance sheet. Most of the balance sheet is net -- of the Canadian balance sheet is really matched with Canadian liabilities. So the denominations are the same. So there is sort of internal hedging happening there. So it's really just their equity and really don't feel the need to hedge that given how much money we move from Canada to the U.S. anyway. On the earnings, it's something that we have done a long, long time ago in the past. The rates have been really very stable until quite frankly the last let's say 12 to 18 months. So actually most importantly the last 12 months. So it is definitely something we will consider, definitely something we will consider. That said, I would not want to jump into it because every hedging strategy has so many potential gotcha's to it that given the level of -- so you describe it as material. It is certainly a number we're focused on, but I do think we can tolerate a $5 million; let's say $8 million impact, $5 million impact on net income and I'm not sure that's worth the risk associated with a hedging strategy. That said, it's an excellent point. We definitely are talking about it and keeping an eye on it to see if it's something we need to look into.

Colin Devine

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

Okay. The final ones, you mentioned where the RBC ended the year. Where did your MCCSR come in?

Alison Rand

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

RBC what? Excuse me?

Colin Devine

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

Where did your MCCSR come in?

Alison Rand

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

MCCSR. I actually don't have that number off the top of my head. We have not finished the filings. Those are doing the end of this month. Even the RBC that I quoted is actually an estimate. So we don't normally go through an estimation process on MCCSR. I will tell you that I'd know, because it always has been, much higher than what is required. We have a -- similar to what we have in the U.S., we have a strong capital business in Canada. But I'm happy to provide that number once it's a public number, once we've calculated it, quite frankly, fully finalized it.

Rick Williams

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

Thank you everybody. Have a nice day.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.