Earnings Labs

Perrigo Company plc (PRGO)

Q4 2008 Earnings Call· Mon, Aug 18, 2008

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Perrigo’s fiscal 2008 year end earnings result conference call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Arthur Shannon. Sir, you may begin.

Arthur Shannon

Management

Thank you very much and welcome to Perrigo’s fourth quarter and year end 2008 earnings conference call. I hope you all had a chance to review our press release which we issued earlier this morning. A copy of the release is available on our website at www.perrigo.com. Before we proceed with the call, I’d like to remind everyone that the Safe Harbor language contained in today’s press release also pertains to this conference call. Certain statements in the call are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended and are subject to the Safe Harbor created thereby. Please see the cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements on Page 1 of the company’s Form 10-K for the year ended June 28, 2008. I would now like to turn the call over to Perrigo’s Chairman and CEO, Joe Papa.

Joseph Papa

Management

Thank you Art, and welcome everyone to Perrigo’s fiscal 2008 year end earnings conference call. Joining me today on the call is Judy Brown, our Chief Financial Officer and also Jeff Needham, our Senior Vice President of Consumer Healthcare business segment. For our agenda today, first I will provide a brief perspective on the quarter and the year. Next, Judy will walk through the detailed financials and our 2009 EPS guidance, and then I will give you an update our very successful new product launches for Omeprazole and Cetirizine plus an update on FY09 guidance. This will be followed by an opportunity for Q&A with Judy, Jeff and myself. My overall comment on the quarter is we continue to execute on our plan with a strong focus on quality, customer service, new products and efforts to lower our cost structure. We had record fourth quarter sales of more than $0.50 billion plus record adjusted operating income of more than 46% from last year on a 360 basis point improvement in gross margins. Our teams continue to deliver on new products and the sell through is on track to meet our expectations. Before turn the call over to Judy for a detailed review of our financial performance, I want to provide a perspective on Q4 market performance and full year achievements and market data. The overall OTC consumer market was up 5.8% in the fourth quarter versus last year. Our store brands though gained 17% while Perrigo’s sales gained 53% on the strength of new product launches and increased market share. Within the overall OTC market, cough/cold in the quarter was up nearly 15.5% from last year primarily due to the launch of Cetirizine. Store brands in the cough/cold market gained 22.4% while Perrigo’s sales were up 73%. My second comment…

Judy Brown

Management

Thanks Joseph, as Joseph just noted we ended fiscal 2008 on a high note with record new product launches, working capital management and cash flow all performing inline with our high expectations. During this review I’d like to walk you through the details of the fiscal fourth quarter which will serve as a baseline for elaborating on fiscal 2009 guidance later, and then I will highlight our full year results as well. First the fourth quarter, on a GAAP basis we had a record fourth quarter sales and earnings. For the first time fourth quarter consolidated net sales crossed the $0.50 billion mark, an increase of 34% from fourth quarter last year. The consolidated gross profit rose $39 million from 2007 and the gross margin increased by 60 basis points. Consolidated net income was up $9 million to a fourth quarter record $27 million or $0.29 per share. After reviewing the figures we released this morning, you will see that there were several items this year and last year which we have excluded from our analysis of the quarterly financials on an adjusted operating basis. Let me summarize. On January 9th, 2008 we completed the acquisition of Galpharm Healthcare Ltd., a leading OTC store brand supplier in the UK. The Galpharm balance sheet and operating results are included in our consolidated results beginning in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter this year we recorded a charge to cost of sales of $2 million after-tax, or $0.02 per share, related to the step-up of inventory acquired from the Galpharm acquisition. In the fourth quarter we also recorded a charge of $7 million after-tax or $0.07 per share for the impairment of a generic Rx intangible asset. The rest of the assets from that acquisition are performing inline with expectations. And…

Joseph Papa

Management

Thanks Judy, now that Judy has given you a very comprehensive review of our year, I’d like to talk about a few things that happened during the past 12 months and anticipate some of your questions. First, in fiscal year 2008 we rescued our customers when a competitor shut down their OTC business, we were able to capture $100 million in annual sales, and have maintained that business during the year. This is now our business and we intend to keep it in the future. Second, we executed several tuck-in acquisitions which broadened our product offering. In the Rx field we executed on the acquisition adding Glades business to our nine marketed products and four pipeline products and this has proven to be a very successful deal exceeding our expectations. In the [inaudible] transaction in OTC, we added store brand pediculocide products which has also exceeded our expectations. In January, 2008 we acquired Galpharm, a leading OTC store brand supplier in the UK which gives us a larger footprint for future European expansion. In May we announced a collaborative agreement with Cobrek which will contribute in ANDA filing for a generic equivalent to Luxiq, a $34 million branded pharmaceutical product to this agreement. Perrigo will be the exclusive distributor of this product. In June we acquired the branded OTC business of Brunel Healthcare from NeutraHealth for $12 million and the related transaction sold its vitamin mineral supplement business along with related production assets in the UK to NeutraHealth allowing us to focus the UK business on the more profitable OTC business segment. We are now the clear leader in OTC store brand in the UK. All these deals were executed spending less than $180 million while adding more than $100 million to annual sales at very favorable margins. Third we…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Randall Stanicky - Goldman Sachs

Randall Stanicky - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

On the guidance, I’m assuming that there’s Paragraph 4s built into the guidance? If you could comment on that and then also specifically around Nasacort AQ, I was wondering if you could give us the latest on that and also if in fact that case was to be settled, could you talk about the implications to Perrigo and the arrangement you currently have with Barr?

Joseph Papa

Management

First let me just talk about the comment about the Paragraph 4 and really all of our new products—I can make a summary comment on that. The way Perrigo approaches our new product is that we put together a new product, what I call a probability factor. And we’re trying to look at all of our new products for whether it be in consumer healthcare or also in the Rx business or in the API business, and put a probability weighting on new products realizing that we’ll either get the approval or we will not. So it’s really a binary affect but we do try to put a probability factor recognizing the fact that at any time in a given year, you can’t really say until you get the final decision whether or not you’ll be able to launch a product. Specifically on the Nasacort, I think as you know, that’s a case that the case has been heard. There is now a postponement in the final decision for that case. We have a postponement. I believe the date is until September, middle to early September. In terms of implications, obviously it’s a very exciting product. It’s over a $300 million product that really will depend on what happens with the court case and I will add that we do not have final approval at this time. Specific to the arrangement with our self and Barr, we are working very closely on this product. It is a profit split for both companies is the best way to describe this opportunity. I realize you understand it is a very large product, however until we get more clarity on both the approval status and the court case, there is really not much more I can say at this time.

Randall Stanicky - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

So a settlement wouldn’t necessarily preclude Perrigo from I guess enjoying some of the benefits of that settlement?

Joseph Papa

Management

We have a relationship with Barr on this occasion and so if there is any settlement, clearly Perrigo would share in that settlement.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Gilbert - Merrill Lynch

Greg Gilbert - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

I wanted to ask about new products, can you break down the 75 for us, the way that you do in your filings, the 75 in the quarter in terms of where that came from, in consumer healthcare specifically?

Judy Brown

Management

That is all of our new product launches so that’s anything that had been launched within the last 18 months so you would have Omeprazole, Cetirizine, the new Fruit Chill Gum in smoking cessation category, as well as smaller products across the bandwidth of cough, cold, allergy, vitamins, etc.

Greg Gilbert - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

And you’ll break that down in the K for [XUS] and Galpharm like you did last quarter?

Judy Brown

Management

Absolutely.

Greg Gilbert - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

For the $275 million of new product sales for consumer in fiscal 2009, are you simply pro rating the Omeprazole and Cetirizine that fall within the 18 month window? Can you walk us through what the Omeprazole and Cetirizine effect within the $275 million?

Judy Brown

Management

Because those products both launched since January 1st of 2008, those products are included for a full year run rate. So if we think more than $275 million of new products that would be one full 12 month period of Omeprazole sales included, the Cetirizine family of products, the Famotidine launch, again and other products. Again we have more than 20, 25 products going onto shelves in addition to those products I just already mentioned. So again because of the timing of those launches anything launched since January 1st, 2008 will be included.

Jeff Needham

Analyst

As you can appreciate and as we’ve talked about in the past, the Omeprazole launch but also Cetirizine were major launches with major retail marketing efforts behind them so one has to be careful about simply extrapolating four months or five months and expanding that on. So while we will have the incremental benefit of having a full year of sales of both Cetirizine 10 mg and Omeprazole you just have to be careful about the pipe fill that both of those products enjoyed with their launches.

Greg Gilbert - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

It seems to me that any pipe fill would have been worked out this quarter, no and with the expectation of getting closer to a 40% penetration—you’d get there exiting fiscal 2009 or not, it just doesn’t seem that the $275 million of new launches leaves much room for contribution from anything but those two products, plus Complete?

Jeff Needham

Analyst

Your summary is correct in that the pipe fill, the launch quantities have largely been worked off here in this fiscal year and that we’ll have a more smooth run rate throughout the full year.

Joseph Papa

Management

I remind you that we put a probability factor on all of the new products as I mentioned and that really has an influence on what the numbers actually are. There’s probability weighting on them.

Greg Gilbert - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Did I miss the revenue growth goal for consumer for the year?

Judy Brown

Management

The top line growth that I quoted was in excess of 16%.

Greg Gilbert - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

On cash flow from Ops, with net income guidance going up and cash flow from Ops going down year-over-year can you just comment on some of the beneficial factors for cash flow this past year that we won’t see recur this next year?

Judy Brown

Management

As you look at the cash flow when we exited the year at $248 million, $114 million of which coming from just the fourth quarter alone, obviously we’re very pleased with our cash flow improvements. But as I like to say, cash flow is not linear. While we are projecting of course growth in earnings in 2009, we benefited in 2008 from a very concerted cross functional process with procurement and finance on our procurements to pay process and getting our days’ payables much more aligned to our inventory cycle. And in doing so you’ll notice when you look at the line by line within the press release a substantial improvement in that payables line. We are always going to be working on our working capital turns initiatives, the management team business unit by business unit as well as on a consolidated basis, is measured in short-term bonus program, on working capital turns year-over-year percentage improvement. But the kind of lock step jump that we saw in that particular cycle again hard to achieve linearly year-over-year. So as we look forward with the earnings guidance we provided, and then looking at percentage improvement in each of the working capital line items that we have within our control, is how we came up to the early in the year balance sheet projections on an operating cash flow of 210 to 240. So that is not meant to signal that there is a balance sheet issue but rather the opposite of continuing to work on the goals and to your point, is there a one-off, I’d say the payables procurement to pay cycle being the area where we really got the biggest one time jump this year in improvement.

Joseph Papa

Management

I can also assure you that we are working very diligently meeting weekly to talk about working capital and talking about our turns and we’re working very hard to try to continue to generate significant cash.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Analyst – Sidoti & Company Analyst – Sidoti & Company: Just with the increase in the debt and the increase in cash, is there specific designs on this money or anything like that or is it just used for general needs as they come along?

Judy Brown

Management

We wanted to make sure that we were locking in good low cost liquidity when we could all see the issues that were rising in the credit markets near the beginning of the calendar year. With that in mind we also secured our term loan and used that to pay down our revolver. We wanted to make sure that we had our revolver fully flexible for any growth initiatives that we had in front of us and likewise we locked in a private placement looking to go out to the private placement market for the first time for Perrigo in order to also lock in low cost liquidity with a new group of investors, create a new syndicate of investors who could be interested in the long-term cash flow generating story of Perrigo. With that in mind it is known that we were out looking at a specific opportunity in June of 2008. That cash was well poised to fund that transaction but I will tell you that our guidance includes the maintaining of that cash on the balance sheet at the moment and we are always looking for opportunities to grow the business in a variety of ways. We talked about the CapEx expansion this year. We are going to use more then our normal run rate in CapEx in fiscal 2009 to fund various expansion opportunities, specifically in manufacturing, training and development to make sure that we have the smoothest process possible and we’ll be looking for other opportunities long-term as well to grow the business in other inorganic ways.

Joseph Papa

Management

We feel very good about our organic growth rate however we always feel it’s prudent for us to be looking at opportunities for tuck-in acquisitions to supplement the organic growth rate and I think having the cash available for us will certainly make that an easier process. Also I think as you know we have very significant stock buyback that’s occurring and dividend program that’s occurring so there’s clearly some need, opportunity for that as well. Analyst – Sidoti & Company: Where are we with the stock buyback program?

Judy Brown

Management

As of the end of the year, we still have $130 million available on the program which expires in February, 2010. At the time that we renewed the program in February of this year, we still had money left on our old program. We expired that out, and are currently engaged in a 10B51 automated repurchase program.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Derek Leckow - Barrington Research

Derek Leckow - Barrington Research

Analyst

On the new products, you talked about $150 million of incremental new product versus $275 million in total; can you help me understand what that $150 million is comprised of?

Judy Brown

Management

Again, the way we track new products can be confusing in a year when we are having such phenomenal success with great new product launches, so any product that’s been launched since January 1st of 2008 would be included over the course of our planning for fiscal 2009, and that incremental amount again can be incremental Omeprazole, incremental Cetirizine plus then brand new new things like Famotidine and other products that have not yet entered the marketplace.

Derek Leckow - Barrington Research

Analyst

Can you give us what the brand new new number is expected to be at this point?

Judy Brown

Management

Not to be evasive but in order to make sure that we’re not talking about any specific individual product beyond the broad guidance that we provided for Omeprazole being a full year run rate of $150 million to $200 million, we will not be quoting exact product numbers for each individual product.

Derek Leckow - Barrington Research

Analyst

It’s helpful to have the Omeprazole number at least, and as we saw there’s a couple of big new products that are expected here. You’ve got the launch of Famotidine Complete going on and then we have Nasacort of course to look forward to in the near-term. So I assume that those two are the ones that are probably most probable at this point?

Joseph Papa

Management

Just to be clear, but Famotidine Complete to be clear that is launched so that is in that essentially 100% probability, just to be clear.

Judy Brown

Management

And that product is $100 million at brand so if you use your classic model to work backwards off the retail brand price and then how much you assume the store brand share, which is at this point for 180 days at least exclusive to Perrigo, you can come up with your estimation then of what the top line Famotidine Complete contribution should be in a 12 month period.

Joseph Papa

Management

And as we announced last week, we began to launch Famotidine Complete and ship that to customers in early August so that’s your start date.

Judy Brown

Management

So you’ll have more or less six weeks run rate in the first quarter of 2009.

Derek Leckow - Barrington Research

Analyst

And is there a fill in process that goes on so you’ll have a heavier weighting of that in Q1?

Joseph Papa

Management

Similar to other major launches, that is a launch with retail marketing programs behind it so that’ll have its heaviest weight here in this first quarter.

Derek Leckow - Barrington Research

Analyst

On the cash balance you talk about your long-term growth opportunities, in the past we’ve always thought about the generic pharmaceutical segment as being the probably the fastest growing segment over the long-term, I’m wondering what you’re seeing out there and you didn’t buy that vitamin business back in June, are you still looking at vitamin companies, or are you looking more towards generic Rx businesses out there?

Joseph Papa

Management

First and foremost I’ll go back to our organic growth rate, we feel very good about our organic growth rate being able to continue to growth organically but we do feel that we’ll continue to look at acquisitions that allow us to improve our return on invested capital for our shareholders. So those are the things that we are focused on. Within that construct of the return on invested capital, generic Rx is clearly one area we will look. We will also look for tuck-in acquisitions that help us to continue to extend our offering in consumer healthcare to our retailers so if there’s products that we do not have in the consumer healthcare offering that are important to our retailers we will continue to go after those and/or any other products that will come into the marketplace, new products that we’ll go after, anything that we believe will help improve the store brand equation, the value equation, for our customers. So generic Rx, also consumer healthcare and if it’s a ROIC opportunity we’ll look at vitamin and nutrition as well.

Derek Leckow - Barrington Research

Analyst

So as far as probability weightings, which segment will see the most deal activity in the next five years? Is it still your expectation to have most of that activity in the generic Rx business?

Joseph Papa

Management

I think that’s a hard one to answer right now. Generic Rx is a really challenging business. It clearly is a focus point for us but I think more important than anything else is we have the [constant] return on invested capital that is really driving our approach to acquisitions and I think its really going to be ROIC driven within our categories with the primary areas being generic Rx and consumer healthcare.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Linda Bolton Weiser – Caris & Company Linda Bolton Weiser – Caris & Company: I think you said that the gross margin in the consumer healthcare business would be expected to be about flattish in FY09, is that correct?

Judy Brown

Management

It would be expected to be fairly consistent with where you saw it in 2008, adjusted gross margin in 2008, yes. Linda Bolton Weiser – Caris & Company: I’m curious about that because I’m thinking that with more and more new products making their way into the mix and those products being higher gross margin, and you’re talking about more positive pricing generally in the industry, I’m wondering why the gross margin would be only flat rather than up in FY09?

Judy Brown

Management

Well if I step back and think about the evolution of the gross margin from 2007 to 2008, obviously there were lock step improvements in process there. We are also looking at 2009 from the perspective of managing the material situation as is seen in the marketplace and balancing raw materials pricing with our own pricing out in the marketplace. So if you look at the run rates in the second half of CHC and the second half of 2008 where we had our quality systems up and running, focusing on service but raw materials price increases were there, we were already able to get up to that 30% plus level adjusted gross margin, even with those pressures coming through in the commodity side and Joseph and the team with Jeff are going to be focusing on now also pricing opportunities, thinking about the whole year of 2009 being similar to the way the second half of 2008 was panning out.

Joseph Papa

Management

We do accept your comment as a challenge to us to continue to grow the gross margin however based on the real strength in what consumer healthcare gross margin already has done in fiscal year 2008, I think we felt a little uncomfortable to go much beyond where we are currently. However I don’t want to mislead you, I absolutely am going to strive with Jeff’s help and the whole team’s help, to continue to drive that gross margin as it would relate to both on the pricing side and the operational efficiencies we have. Linda Bolton Weiser – Caris & Company: On the launch of the generic Olux foam, I believe that launched in the third fiscal quarter were the sales down sequentially because of pipe fill in the third quarter or not?

Joseph Papa

Management

I think just to remind you, the third quarter was a really limited launch in the sense that it was March 26th or something, there was a fill that occurred in the third quarter fiscal year but it’s really very close. It isn’t that much of a difference in the two numbers. Linda Bolton Weiser – Caris & Company: It would seem like the June quarter sales would be quite a bit higher then.

Joseph Papa

Management

No, because you did have the fill. It wasn’t that much of a difference. Linda Bolton Weiser – Caris & Company: Just in terms of we’re always looking towards the future and we’re all kind of wondering when the next big new product that would be greater than $50 million of annual sales, significant, would that be in calendar 2010 or even beyond that?

Joseph Papa

Management

We’re really excited about obviously the growth in the current products that we’ve launched, the Cetirizine, the Omeprazole, the Cetirizine D, as all very important growth drivers for us in fiscal year 2009 as we get the full year affect of those products. There are other products that are going to come to the marketplace, I can’t go into each of them from a competitive point of view, but we do believe that one of the successes of Perrigo story has been not so much the home runs but a lot of the singles and the doubles that we’ve gotten and that really just talks to what Judy said about the magnitude of the number of products that we are launching, that diversification is an important contributor to our success. So I do think there are some significant products in the future certainly as we look at the rest of the [inaudible] inhibitors, [not saying] the antihistamines that will switch, but I do think in the next 12 to 24 months it’ll be more singles and doubles that will help us to grow the business.

Jeff Needham

Analyst

I think that’s exactly right and I think our challenge and our opportunity and what our whole goal is, is to have that pipeline in consumer healthcare be as robust and as full as possible and we feel real good about our pipeline in looking at the years ahead. Linda Bolton Weiser – Caris & Company: On those two little restructuring items in the quarter were those in the restructuring line or were either of them in another line item in the income statement?

Judy Brown

Management

They are in the restructuring line item on the P&L. Linda Bolton Weiser – Caris & Company: So there were no other adjustments other then the adjustments to the gross profit line?

Judy Brown

Management

Again the adjustments that I outlined parallel the adjustments that are outlined in Table 2 of the press release where we break it down by business unit and by line item on the P&L.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Scott Harsh - Credit Suisse

Scott Harsh - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Did I hear you right, you said your probability weighting the approvals for guidance, so does it make sense then to assume that as you get more clarity on these you might update guidance throughout the year as we saw last year?

Joseph Papa

Management

By virtue of the way we do probability weighting on any new products, when it moves from being a probability weighting to a binary, whether it be approved or not approved, that would potentially change guidance. Now I can’t say off hand right now whether any individual one will be significant enough to change guidance, but yes, by definition the way we do it would potentially change guidance when we get a known outcome.

Scott Harsh - Credit Suisse

Analyst

The new dent in the new acquisitions in growth across both the healthcare and the Rx pharma business should we be assuming these are small products that are accretive early on versus something larger or to the other extent something bigger?

Jeff Needham

Analyst

Maybe just to remind you the first comment I said was that we feel very good about our organic growth rate. Second comment was that we will continue to look at ROIC driven acquisitions both in generic Rx and in the area of consumer healthcare. Third comment is that by virtue of the ROIC proposition, I would expect them to be accretive certainly in the first couple of years. Maybe not in the first six months, but certainly in the first year or two years.

Scott Harsh - Credit Suisse

Analyst

With respect to Rx, as we saw it kind of come down here and then mentioned second half of the year, I think you mentioned that we’ll expect new products to launch and that would be heavier weighted towards the second half, so we should assume that there are new products second half that come out of these 10 ANDAs that we should expect?

Jeff Needham

Analyst

Yes, the new products, obviously we’re never exactly sure about the timing but you should weight it more towards the second half of the year, yes.

Judy Brown

Management

And just to be clear it was slightly heavier, not 10/90; slightly more 40/60, 45/55 so slightly.

Scott Harsh - Credit Suisse

Analyst

On SG&A we’ve seen it kind of go up here across the quarters and I know last quarter we talked about some of the spending being variable, can you just give some insight how much of spending is now fixed and how much of this is variable going into next year? I know you’ve had more launches here with Famotidine Complete and the like; can you give us a sense of how much of this SG&A here is now fixed?

Judy Brown

Management

Just to give you, SG&A is never fixed. In the universe of operating expenses no costs are ever fixed but to give you an idea of a run rate, a blended average quarterly run rate for this year is something approximating low 70s, is I would say a baseline run rate if you were adding up distribution plus SG&A. Again that’s getting you to a point where as I said in guidance discussions, we would expect that as a percent of sales to come down more than 100 basis points from the adjusted run rate this year. The [bolus] of new product introductions had an impact on Q3 and resolution of several areas in the legal space were one-time events this quarter that were higher than we expected to wrap up the year, but looking at the projections for the course of 2009, something along the lines of low 70s over the course of the year would be appropriate.

Joseph Papa

Management

Well thank you everyone for your interest in Perrigo and have a great day.