PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) Q2 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary
PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG)
Q2 2026 Earnings Call· Wed, Jul 29, 2026
$42.63
-5.43%
PROG Holdings, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Key Takeaways
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PROG Holdings, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Hello, and welcome to PROG Holdings Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press one-one on your telephone. You would then hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press one-one again. I would now like to hand the conference over to John Allen Baugh. Sir, you may begin.
JB
John Allen Baugh
Management
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the PROG Holdings Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Joining me this morning are Steven A. Michaels, PROG Holdings' Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer and Brian J. Garner, our chief financial officer. Many of you have already seen a copy of our earnings release issued this morning, which is available on our Investor Relations website investor.progholdings.com. During this call, certain statements we make will be forward-looking, including comments regarding our 2026 full-year outlook and our outlook for the third quarter of 2026. Listeners are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, all of which are subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to update any such statements. On today's call, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS, which have been adjusted for certain items, which may affect the comparability of our performance with other companies. These non-GAAP measures are detailed in the reconciliation tables included with our earnings release. The company believes that these non-GAAP financial measures provide meaningful insight into the company's operational performance, and cash flows, and provides these measures to investors to help facilitate comparisons of operating results with prior periods and to assist them in understanding the company's ongoing operational performance. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Steven A. Michaels, PROG Holdings' President and Chief Executive Officer. Steven?
SM
Steven A. Michaels
Management
Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you all joining us today. Let me begin with the headline. This is a strong quarter for PROG Holdings. Revenue came in toward the higher end of our outlook, while adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS exceeded the top of our range. Importantly, every product in our ecosystem contributed. At Progressive Leasing, GMV growth combined with fewer customers choosing to exercise their 90-day purchase option, drove higher gross margin and a 12.7% adjusted EBITDA margin. At Four, robust customer demand once again translated into profitable triple-digit growth. And at Purchasing Power, we delivered double-digit GMV growth with revenue and margin both ahead of plan. Producing results like these while the consumer is under pressure is a testament to how we have built this business over the years and the discipline with which we run it today. Before I walk through our strategic priorities, let me add some context on the quarter. Consolidated GMV grew 60% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year. This is an improvement from the 54% growth we posted in Q1. Because our platform generates volume simultaneously across leasing, Four, and Purchasing Power, this consolidated figure is the clearest way to see the true scale of what we are building. Starting with Progressive Leasing, GMV grew 3.4% year-over-year, a meaningful improvement from the 2.2% decline we saw in Q1 and right in line with our expectations. Recall that for much of last year, leasing's GMV was held back by two things. The tightening actions we deliberately took and the Big Lots bankruptcy. Once we had cycled past both items, largely by the end of February, leasing's GMV turned positive in March, and that momentum carried through the second quarter. The improvement reflects both the lapping of those prior headwinds and the payoff from several growth initiatives we put in place over the past year. Applications grew double digits year-over-year, fueled by stronger top-of-funnel marketing and an improved user experience, though we remain disciplined about how many of those applicants ultimately convert into funded leases. We believe we are firmly back on a growth footing at leasing and notably, we produced that growth in Q2 even as our customers contended with inflation and higher costs. Four's GMV more than doubled year-over-year. Extending its remarkable run of triple-digit growth to 11 quarters. Growth continued to be powered by healthy underlying consumer demand for BNPL. Four's position as an easy-to-use and highly rated app shoppers genuinely like, coupled with solid marketing performance, drove both GMV and subscriber growth. Appetite for our BNPL offering stays strong, and that appetite keeps converting into attractive economics and profitability. A topic I will return to shortly. Purchasing Power posted another quarter of double-digit GMV growth, powered mainly by strength throughout its established employer relationships. I want to be clear about the quality of the growth across the businesses. Because it is an important point. This growth is coming from expanded distribution share gains with our retail partners, and genuine customer demand, not from loosening our decisioning posture. In fact, our leasing approval rates are down year-over-year, which is the clearest evidence that we remain disciplined regarding our portfolio performance. Consolidated revenue came in at $720 million, up 22% year-over-year and toward the higher end of our outlook. This growth was driven primarily by the addition of Purchasing Power, together with excellent momentum at Four, partially offset by a revenue decline at Progressive Leasing where a smaller average portfolio through the quarter created a headwind. With GMV growth continuing and portfolio growth resuming, we expect leasing to return to positive year-over-year revenue comps in the second half of the year. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations of $88.4 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.19 both came in above the high end of our outlook range. Brian will take you through the details but the headline is that we delivered profitable growth while investing in the business. Now to portfolio performance at Progressive Leasing, where the takeaway is that disciplined execution delivered strong profitability this quarter. Lease merchandise write-offs came in at 8.4% of total Progressive Leasing revenue, which was largely within our expectations as of the April earnings call. The second and third quarters are seasonally our two highest write-off periods, and with this quarter's GMV growth, some elevation is expected. The sequential increase from the first quarter was modestly above our normal seasonal step-up, and we believe that was caused by cost pressures, including gas prices, which weigh on the budgets of our core customer. The key point is that this reflects a choice we made from a position of strength. With leasing gross margins healthy, we made a deliberate decision to focus on driving higher portfolio yield and maximizing adjusted EBITDA dollars. Our decisioning posture remains dynamic, and we make appropriate adjustments that keep us well positioned to finish the year inside our 6% to 8% targeted annual range, as we have successfully done in prior years when unfavorable macro factors have had an impact on leasing write-offs. The payoff of our approach is evident in the results. Progressive Leasing segment delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.7%, our highest second quarter margin since exiting COVID. Achieving that level of profitability in a seasonally high write-off quarter underscores the underlying earnings power of the segment. Let me also offer a brief perspective on the broader environment and our consumer. Despite a favorable tax refund season, our customer is feeling the effects of prolonged inflation and the recent increases in gas prices, which remains a headwind for discretionary budgets. Even so, they remain resilient and overall demand has held up well. Though it is expressing itself differently from one business to the next. At Four, our smaller ticket pay-in-four offering, demand is still showing strength and contributing to a significant growth rate. At Progressive Leasing, the pressure has been most pronounced in bigger ticket need-based categories, such as furniture and appliances. We have partially offset that softness with continued strength in electronics, and on our direct-to-consumer product marketplace platform. And at Purchasing Power, we are seeing year-over-year GMV growth in nearly every category, with furniture and jewelry, the two exceptions. This is the benefit of a diversified ecosystem. One customer, multiple needs and products, with the flexibility to lean in where demand is robust and tighten where prudence calls for it. With that, let me move to the three pillars of our strategy: grow, enhance and expand. Under grow, Progressive Leasing returned to year-over-year GMV growth of 3.4% with applications up double-digits and monthly trends continuing the positive GMV trajectory we established in March. Our direct-to-consumer efforts in marketing and digital channels were again meaningful contributors. PROG Marketplace was a particular standout with its exceptional trajectory since inception. On an annual basis, the marketplace has achieved a GMV CAGR of nearly 200% from 2022 to 2025. And on a Q2 basis, it has expanded GMV roughly 13-fold over the past three years. Our e-commerce channel also advanced. Helped by an improved digital checkout experience. Reaching 25.6% of total Progressive Leasing GMV in the quarter, up from 20.9% a year ago. And our highest second quarter mix to date. At Four, we delivered 111% GMV growth, compared to the same period last year. Powered by strong customer engagement and repeat purchasing. The team rolled out AI-driven product enhancements that simplify the shopping experience, and average order values increased year-over-year. On the marketing side, we deployed spend efficiently, maintaining a healthy balance between paid and organic customer acquisition. We are also pleased with the subscription-oriented promotion launched around Amazon Prime Day and plan to use similar approaches elsewhere to drive subscribers and GMV. And at Purchasing Power, we signed several new employer clients during the quarter, and just after the quarter ended, added a large new client with more than 80,000 eligible employees. Bringing a meaningful number of new potential customers onto the platform to support future growth. We are integrating the business more deeply into our platform while testing new growth levers. In the second quarter, that included a series of improvements to the customer experience: a faster, more intuitive mobile interface, the launch of Vita, Purchasing Power's AI shopping assistant, which makes it easier for customers to find what they are looking for and surfaces personalized product recommendations. And a new bundling feature that curates attractive assortments for one click. We also broadened our merchandise categories including new automotive services such as wheel alignment, opening additional avenues for expansion. Under enhance, our investments in customer and retailer experiences delivered measurable results. Rather than cataloging every individual initiative, I want to frame this the way we think about it internally, which is in terms of outcomes. Our work this quarter focused on driving better search results, higher checkout conversion, faster decisioning, and a lower cost to serve. We launched an AI-powered search capability at Purchasing Power, and for the logged-in customers who chose to use it, site conversion roughly doubled. An early but powerful proof point on how AI is improving the shopping experience and driving real commercial outcomes throughout the ecosystem. AI underpins much of this. It is embedded in dozens of smaller improvements in customer experience and operational efficiency that individually may not warrant a headline, but that collectively move conversion, retention, and unit economics in the right direction. Under expand, Four scaled profitably, and Purchasing Power integration is progressing well. Four's Q2 revenue was $35.1 million, up 118% year-over-year, and it generated adjusted EBITDA of $8.7 million. As signaled on the Q1 call, adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.8%, down from Q1's seasonally elevated 37%, but consistent with the full-year trajectory we have guided to. Four's take rate, defined as revenue generated as a percentage of GMV over the trailing 12-month period, held steady at approximately 10%. Performance was powered by customer engagement and repeat purchasing. Average purchase frequency held at roughly five transactions per quarter, and active shoppers grew nearly 80% year-over-year, and quarterly average monthly active users nearly doubled compared to a year ago reflecting sustained consumer interest. Four's subscription model remains a key driver, with Four Plus subscribers contributing approximately 80% of total GMV. On Purchasing Power, integration is advancing well, and revenue and margin contribution are tracking in line with our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA rose sequentially from $800,000 in the first quarter to $10.6 million, with margin improving to 8.1% of revenue. As Brian will discuss, several factors drove the step-up and they were all largely anticipated. Beyond the segment results, the cross-sell opportunity at Purchasing Power and across our businesses is significant and increasingly tangible. Our ecosystem-first approach is gaining traction as a growing number of customers transact with multiple PROG Holdings products. Customer overlap deepened in the second quarter, driven by cross-product marketing and activations that build momentum. Among the promising signals we see is Four's growth rate, which serves as a primary driver of shared customers across our businesses increasingly functioning as an important entry point to our broader ecosystem. Notably, the relationship between Progressive Leasing and Four customers represents our strongest and fastest growing overlap. We are also encouraged by the early momentum we are seeing with Purchasing Power as we deepen its connectivity with other offerings in our portfolio. Looking ahead, we expect our activation infrastructure will scale with automated programs spanning digital outreach channels, in-product placement, and increasingly within the product flows themselves. We believe the trajectory we saw in Q2 is a good signal that these initiatives are beginning to compound. Before I turn it over to Brian, let me touch on our capital allocation priorities, which remain unchanged. Reinvest in the business, pursue strategic M&A and return excess capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. A combination of debt paydown, which strengthened the balance sheet and an improving adjusted EBITDA trajectory resulted in a net leverage ratio of 1.7x as of June 30. That progress together with our disciplined cash management allowed us to resume share repurchases during the quarter, buying back 280,000 shares. Resuming repurchases reflects both our improved leverage profile and our confidence in the future of the business. To summarize the quarter, we delivered earnings results ahead of the high end of our outlook, powered by growth in every one of our businesses. Progressive Leasing extended the GMV growth trajectory it established in March and delivered a post-COVID-high adjusted EBITDA margin. Four delivered another quarter of profitable triple-digit growth and Purchasing Power contributed double-digit profitable GMV growth. We accomplished all of this while managing portfolio risk, with our usual discipline in a stressed but resilient consumer environment. With that, I will turn it over to Brian. Brian?
BG
Brian J. Garner
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Steven, and good morning, everyone. Q2 was a successful quarter, and every segment contributed to the earnings beat. At Leasing, we generated healthy margins, through a higher portfolio yield driven in part by more customers choosing to keep their leases active longer and we delivered that against a consumer that is challenged but resilient. Four continued its impressive growth driving triple-digit GMV and revenue growth. And Purchasing Power exceeded expectations delivering double-digit GMV growth and strong margins. Taken together, it was a quarter defined by disciplined execution, and momentum building across the businesses. I will now walk through the operating segments in more detail before turning to consolidated results and our revised full-year 2026 outlook. Starting with Progressive Leasing, second quarter GMV was $428.1 million, up 3.4% year-over-year and an improvement from the 2.2% decline in Q1. As Steve mentioned, these results reflect the lapping of last year's tightening actions and the residual Big Lots volume combined with the growth initiatives we have employed over the past year. Revenue for the Leasing segment was $550.3 million, down 3.4% year-over-year and a sequential improvement compared to Q1, which was down 8.4%. The gross leased asset balance, a headwind that pressured revenue earlier in the year eased as the portfolio rebuilds behind improving GMV. As a reminder, we began the year with the leasing portfolio down 9.4% compared to last year, and as of Q2, the gross leased asset balance is roughly flat year-over-year, marking the progress we have made in improving the underlying revenue driver and we expect the revenue comp to inflect positive in the back half. Similar to Q1, we saw a continuing trend of a smaller proportion of our customers choosing to exercise their 90-day early purchase options compared to last year. In the quarter, this dynamic of fewer customers exercising that option is a modest drag on revenue, but it builds a higher margin portfolio. And over time, we expect it to work in our favor on both total revenue and gross margin. Progressive Leasing's gross margin was 33.8%, up 143 basis points year-over-year, reflecting that improved portfolio yield. Write-offs in the period were 8.4% of total Progressive Leasing revenue as we consider slightly higher delinquencies in the context of strong portfolio yield driven in part by customers staying in their leases longer. I will mention that in a normalized environment, we would expect Q2 write-offs to increase sequentially from the Q1 period which is a large part of the Q1 to Q2 increase we observed. With leasing's gross margins healthy, 143 basis points to 33.8%, we are managing this portfolio to an annual result and allowing the quarters to fluctuate within reason. The modestly higher lease merchandise write-off rate in a seasonally high period with improved margins is entirely consistent with that approach. It does not change how we are running the portfolio or our expectation of achieving our annual write-off target. We aim to optimize for absolute earnings rather than any single quarter's write-off rate. Monitoring payment behavior, delinquencies and vintage-level performance continuously and we expect full-year 2026 leasing write-offs to land within our long-held targeted annual range of 6% to 8%. Progressive Leasing's SG&A for the quarter was $82.8 million, or 15% of revenue. We are keeping a tight grip on costs while still funding select investments such as technology modernization, customer experience, and AI initiatives that underpin long-term growth. Progressive Leasing generated adjusted EBITDA of $69.9 million, or 12.7% of revenue, an improvement of more than 50 basis points year-over-year. Delivering that level of profitability, even with modestly higher write-offs speaks to the earnings power of the segment. I am proud of the team's operational execution, including managing portfolio performance, in line with our expectations. Turning to Four Technologies. Q2 GMV grew 111% year-over-year to $315 million and revenue grew 118% to $35.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $8.7 million, or 24.8% of revenue. As a reminder, the first quarter is seasonally Four's best margin period, as holiday GMV converts into revenue with a lower credit loss provision. As expected, Q2 margins moderated from that peak, while remaining consistent with the range implied in our outlook. We are highly encouraged by Four's performance on both growth and profitability. MoneyApp, our cash advance product, revenue was up 34% year-over-year driven by new revenue streams. MoneyApp remains an important engagement and cross-sell driver within our ecosystem with a meaningful contribution to leasing GMV. Finally, Purchasing Power delivered GMV of $158.8 million, representing double-digit year-over-year growth against its pre-acquisition base. Revenue was $130.4 million, and adjusted EBITDA reached $10.6 million, or 8.1% of revenue up from $800,000 in the first quarter. The drivers of the sequential improvement were operating leverage on seasonally higher volume, favorable product mix and improved pricing, which lifted margin and lower interest expense on securitized debt after we paid down the warehouse facilities with excess cash in Q1. As a reminder, we treat that ABS interest expense as a form of cost of operations so Purchasing Power segment adjusted EBITDA is burdened by that cost. Purchasing Power was acquired at the start of the year, so it did not contribute to the prior year consolidated base. In our financial reporting, integration is on track. And we remain encouraged by the progress on both front- and back-end synergies. Moving to consolidated results. GMV grew 60% year-over-year to $902 million, and revenue from continuing operations grew 22.3% year-over-year to $719.7 million. This revenue performance was driven by the addition of Purchasing Power and triple-digit growth at Four, partially offset by Progressive Leasing. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $88.4 million, representing a 12.3% margin. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.19, both exceeding the high end of our April outlook. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with approximately $85.2 million of unrestricted cash, and total available liquidity of $435.2 million, including our revolving credit facility. Recourse debt was $600 million, down $50 million from the end of Q1. Since closing the Purchasing Power acquisition, we paid down $260 million of recourse debt, including $50 million in Q2. Bringing our net leverage ratio to 1.7x trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA. That is down from roughly 2.5x right after the acquisition and 2x at the end of Q1. The combination of our resilient business model and disciplined cash management fueled that deleveraging, moving us comfortably within our long-term target range of 1.5 to 2 turns. As a reminder, this ratio excludes nonrecourse ABS debt used to fund Purchasing Power operations, does not add back the associated interest expense to adjusted EBITDA and only includes the Purchasing Power adjusted EBITDA since the acquisition. We return capital to shareholders through a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share. Importantly, with net leverage comfortably within our targeted range, we also resumed share repurchases, buying back 280,000 shares at an average price of $36.34. We will keep evaluating opportunities to return additional capital while funding GMV growth throughout the business. I will now touch on some key aspects of our revised full-year outlook provided in this morning's release. Despite the macroeconomic pressures, we believe consolidated GMV momentum will carry through the remainder of the year. A rebuilding leasing GMV feeds the gross leased asset balance which is a forward indicator of future revenue. Four continues its meaningful growth and Purchasing Power is building towards its seasonally best fourth quarter. On the leasing portfolio performance, we expect full-year 2026 leasing write-offs to remain within our targeted annual range of 6% to 8% albeit near the high end of that range. Reflecting the dynamic way we are managing the portfolio to full-year economics and normal seasonality. Our revised outlook balances the second quarter outperformance against caution on the impact of inflation and higher costs on our customer. While staying optimistic about Progressive Leasing's return to growth, the ongoing momentum at Four and Purchasing Power and our ability to execute on the opportunities within our control. Accordingly, we have increased the outlook of our financial targets. Our revised consolidated outlook for continuing operations in 2026 calls for revenues in the range of $3.025 billion to $3.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $355 million to $375 million and adjusted non-GAAP EPS in the range of $4.75 to $5.00. This outlook assumes an operating environment with no change in the current financial pressures and uncertainties for our customers, no material changes in the company's decisioning posture, no meaningful increase in the unemployment rate for our consumer base, an effective tax rate for non-GAAP EPS of approximately 26% and no impact from additional share repurchases. In summary, this was a strong quarter across every one of our segments. Progressive Leasing returned to GMV growth, Four sustained its rapid and profitable expansion and Purchasing Power kept building momentum, all while we ran the business in a disciplined manner and kept the balance sheet healthy with the net leverage ratio comfortably inside our targeted range. Looking ahead, we will stay focused on profitable growth and portfolio performance as we execute against our strategic priorities against a challenging macro backdrop, and we believe that focus will allow us to deliver on our increased full-year outlook. I will turn the call back over to Steven to address the 8-Ks that went out this morning. Steven?
SM
Steven A. Michaels
Management
Thanks, Brian. On July 25, the company was informed of the passing of Doug Kurland, a member of the company's Board of Directors. Mr. Kurland, who was 72 years old, had served on the board since February 2016 and most recently served as chair of the Compensation and Human Capital Committee and as a member of the Audit Committee. Doug made extraordinary contributions to the company over his years of service. His financial expertise, sound judgment, unwavering commitment to shareholders, helped guide the company through significant periods of growth and transformation. He will be deeply missed by his colleagues on the board, the management team, and all who had the privilege of working with him. On behalf of the board, management, and our employees, I want to extend our heartfelt condolences to Mr. Kurland's family. I will now turn the call back over to the operator for questions. Operator?
OP
Operator
Operator
Then wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press one-one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Kyle Joseph with Stephens. Your line is open.
KJ
Kyle Joseph
Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open
Congrats on a good quarter, and thanks for taking my questions. Steven, just kind of want to get a sense for I know you guys discussed it a lot, but kind of the health of the consumer. Obviously, There are a lot of moving parts, but just kind of weighing less lower early buyout activity, but also kind of the strong demand you are you are seeing or at least recovery in demand. So just kind of balancing those two and see what is kind of driving that. Are we kind of at the point where we are where demand has recovered kind of post-COVID? From the post-COVID pull forward.
SM
Steven A. Michaels
Management
Yeah. Thanks, Kyle. And, yeah, there is a lot there. Certainly a focus across our portfolio of products as it relates to the consumer. So I will start with the health. And as we have talked about, we talked about in April, I think it is continuing. The consumer is stressed but resilient. And so that is the operating environment that we are operating in. Across the products. And we have seen you know, certainly, the lower buyout activity is I think, a signal on how the consumer's feeling about their liquidity position. And whether they wanna use some of that liquidity to pay off early. And I would say unlike 2023, which we talked about a lot, where we saw lower 90-day buyouts, but then the folks who did not do a 90-day just kind of ended up paying or paying off or doing an early buyout later in the lease. We have seen a little less of that this year. So some of the 90-days that did not happen, did result in delinquencies and ultimately some charge-offs. But you put all that in the mixing bowl for the leasing segment, and it results in higher gross margins and higher underlying EBITDA margins, which is a which is a positive thing for us. So we are monitoring it closely. The write-offs in the leasing segment are something we take very seriously. We did expect a seasonal step-up from Q1 to Q2 that you see pretty much every year. You cannot really look at last year as a comp because we did a material tightening in Q1, and so it kind of obfuscated the normal seasonal step-up. But I would reiterate that 6% to 8% targeted range that we have held to for over a decade is an annual range. It is not a quarterly range. So we are confident in our ability to manage the portfolio to that range for this year and do that in the context of higher margins. So being near the higher end of the range is not a negative outcome necessarily. So I have utmost confidence in our data science teams. We are seeing some areas where we have trimmed. We have taken a few actions on our decisioning posture. But nothing aggressive or material. So it is something we are watching. I would not say necessarily that the demand has rebounded from the post-COVID lows of the demand pull forward. I think we are still facing a soft demand environment for the large-ticket consumer durables. What we have seen is strength in our product marketplace and our direct-to-consumer and e-commerce platforms. Coupled with some initiatives that we have done with retailers to help to be able to grow our leasing GMV. And then, obviously, as we said, the lapping of the two discrete headwinds that we had for basically all of 2025. So those things help to get us back to a growth posture. We expect that will continue, you know, even though we are not guiding to GMV. But I would just click up a level and talk about the portfolio as a whole because, you know, we do have the ecosystem that serves a very similar customer. Across the products. And we are seeing in Purchasing Power, the provision was largely as expected in the quarter. In our Four business, which is experiencing tremendous growth. We are seeing pretty flat year-over-year, actually, performance from a provision standpoint. So we are pleased with where we are. We are confident in our ability to manage the portfolio because we understand that is job number one. And we are also pleased that while we are managing that portfolio, we are growing all of our products.
KJ
Kyle Joseph
Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open
Really helpful. Thanks. And then just one follow-up for me. On Four, obviously, seeing really good growth there. Can you just give us a little bit more of a sense for that consumer? I know you said there is overlap, obviously, with the leasing book. But, you know, I mean, whether it is talking about FICO, I know you do not underwrite on FICO, but just, you know, where you are gathering those consumers from, like, what were they previously debit, credit card users, or, you know, where those consumers are coming from and what they look like.
SM
Steven A. Michaels
Management
Yeah. You are right. We do not even capture FICO in the business, so we do not really look at it. But there is a pretty material overlap. with the rest of our products. And I would just call it, I would say the heart of the melon is near-prime and below, but we certainly have prime customers that are utilizing the Four product and are repeat users. And so I do believe we and the whole industry is just basically taking share from credit card users and, you know, some community banks and some other sources of this type of payment plan. And we believe that is where the Four customers are coming from as well.
KJ
Kyle Joseph
Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open
Great. That is it for me. Thanks for taking my questions. Thanks, Kyle.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hal Goetsch with B. Riley Securities. Check to see if you are on mute, Hal.
HG
Hal Goetsch
Analyst · Hal Goetsch with B. Riley Securities. Check to see if you are on mute, Hal
Hey, thank you. My question is on Four Technologies as well. Could you share with us maybe the investments you are making in terms of personnel, technology, and your path to higher margins. And then the next one is, you provide, how many active users you have right now how many active subscribers you have right now if you did not do that before? Thanks.
SM
Steven A. Michaels
Management
Yeah. Thanks, Hal. Yeah. Four is a very efficient operation with a very lean team that is comprised of employees as well as contractors that are kind of placed globally around the world. And we are growing that. But at a much lower rate than the growth of the business. And the reason that the team is able to do that is because they are just an AI-native, AI-forward shop. And so they are capturing great efficiencies from their day-one adoption of maybe not day one, but, you know, adoption of AI. And they are able to release new product innovations, release new versions of the apps. Improve customer service, while actually you know, reducing headcount in that department. And so it is a small shop and the revenue per employee is quite robust, let's say. And they are confident that they can continue to grow at these levels, you know, there will be deceleration as you would expect with the law of big numbers, but without actually, having to add too many resources because of their, you know, their use of AI. And so really, really proud and look at them as a model for what we can do in the rest of the organization with AI. And we have not given the numbers on monthly active users. Although, I think in our Investor Day, we did say that in December, we had hit 3 million monthly active users. But it is not something that we have updated every quarter. We may consider doing that in the future. But I do not have those numbers right in front of me, Hal.
HG
Hal Goetsch
Analyst · Hal Goetsch with B. Riley Securities. Check to see if you are on mute, Hal
Right. Thanks a lot. Good job.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. The next question comes from the line of Bobby Griffin with Raymond James. Your line is open.
BG
Bobby Griffin
Analyst · Bobby Griffin with Raymond James. Your line is open
Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions, and congrats on good upside here this quarter. Steven, I just you touched on the progressive write-offs a little bit. I am just hoping maybe we can double-click again further into it. And I guess just asking in the context that it is probably the one area of slight that you could pick on a little bit this quarter, them being above 8. So maybe unpack kind of how it played out during the quarter for us and what you are seeing that gives you the confidence to be back in the 7% range on the annual basis, and that probably does imply a little bit of a step down from where we are today. I think people, you know, focus on these write-offs as you guys do very intently given the economic environment.
SM
Steven A. Michaels
Management
Thanks, Bobby. Yeah. I mean, yes, we would expect that it will get some attention, and that is why we gave it such airtime in the prepared remarks because it is a deliberate management of the portfolio. I think I would say that we could have made decisions that would have delivered write-offs for Q2 with a 7% handle. It just would not have been the right decision for the business because of the underlying margins that we are seeing in the overall portfolio yield. And so knowing that the 6% to 8% is an annual range, we allowed this quarter to fluctuate a little bit. And you know, Q3 might be higher than normal as well because Q2 and Q3 are seasonally high quarters. But we look at all the early indicators. We look at delinquencies and first pay balances, and a whole suite of KPIs and we believe and have confidence in that team to be able to deliver for the year. And like I said earlier, we have made some cuts because in pockets, we are seeing some things that the data would lead us to the decision to make some cuts. And approval rates are down year-over-year in the quarter. Even though we have lapped the tightening last year in Q1 of 2025. So just an active dynamic management of that portfolio. Brian and that team reports to Brian, and we have meetings, if not weekly, we have a set meeting every other week to just to review the inventory of items that could be tightening, could be loosening, depending on what the data say. So we are hands on the wheel like we always are. We understand that this number is not a number that you are used to seeing from us, but it was a deliberate action. And I would recall back to the fact that last year was an aberration because we had a material tightening in Q1. There is usually a 60 or 70 basis point increase sequentially from Q1 to Q2. And so we, you know, we were in the 7.3%, 7.4% range in Q1. And so normal sequential number would have put us at the top. And then we do admit that there is some gas price pressure due to the war and the, you know, the oil prices. So we are watching that, and to your question about what gives us the confidence, just the decade of execution and performance that this team has delivered never having been outside that 8% range on the top end in any trailing 12-month period is what I would lean on there.
BG
Brian J. Garner
Chief Financial Officer
The only thing I would add, I think Steven nailed it, but remember, the 8% that we refer to or 6% to 8%, that is an annual range. And here in the quarter, slightly above it, but we did reiterate for the year, we expect to be kind of near the high end of that range. The other thing I would say is we have talked previously about Progressive Leasing being in the range of 11% to 13% target margins. And here, we are at 12.7% for the quarter. And so near the high end, two things have happened at the same time. You have got near the high end of our write-off range and near the high end of our margin range. And that has everything to do with this interplay that is happening with customers staying in their leases longer. And so that benefit is more than offsetting the delinquencies being kind of at that 8.4% level. And so the decision point that Steven indicated is, okay. Do we pull back on tightening? Or do we do we pull back on approval rates and tighten at the expense of bottom line? Or do we manage to with the bottom-line context given what we are seeing in the data. And so we have elected the latter in this quarter. And as we move throughout the year, we will continue to apply that lens. So your question about do you go back to 7% or 6%, I think doing so in the current dynamic would come at the expense of bottom line just given what we are seeing. And so it is by design, and we will continue to make those decisions in real-time. But understand also the importance of consistency and managing that portfolio, which we understand is job number one.
BG
Bobby Griffin
Analyst · Bobby Griffin with Raymond James. Your line is open
Thank you. And then, Brian, as a follow-up, it is actually on that interplay of people staying on leases longer. That is one of the things you probably do not know. There are a lot of things that are tough to forecast, and this type of business is probably one of the aspects that is tough to forecast out. So, like, for the back half, what have you assumed there? It looks like you guys kind of beat the midpoint and then kind of flowed that through the year. And then it looks like maybe the back half EBITDA is roughly about the same. So just help me understand what is assumed from the overall environment in the back half of 2026 and the guide in that interplay of early or staying on leases longer. Sorry.
BG
Brian J. Garner
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. It is a good question. So if you do the math imputed in the back half, more imputed in the back half, margins are slightly down with Progressive Leasing from the front half. And that is driven in large part to the dynamic you just referenced. So we had a we had exceptional margin performance in Q1, again, really strong here in Q2. But the 90-day dynamic that we have been seeing, we are not banking on. We are not automatically assuming that is going to continue at the same level of a tailwind. And so we have got some moderation happening there. We have got a step down in Q3 and Q4 on that tailwind embedded in the outlook. So to the extent that it stays at current levels or the amount of time that they are in the lease lengthens from the current motion, that is upside to the base case. And, you know, that is a hard shot to call. It is obviously very fluid. In any given day, you read a different headline about where gas prices are going and etcetera, and we think that has at least something to do with the current trends that we are seeing. So just being, like we said in our remarks, being cautious about the current environment. Managing that portfolio, and, you know, not counting on the 90-day tailwind that we have seen to continue at the same level of strength. But still a tailwind year-over-year. But not at the strength that we saw in the first half.
BG
Bobby Griffin
Analyst · Bobby Griffin with Raymond James. Your line is open
Very good. Makes perfect sense. Appreciate the expanded details, and good luck here in the back half.
BG
Brian J. Garner
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Bobby.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Bradley Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
BT
Brad Thomas
Analyst · Bradley Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open
Good morning, and let me add my congrats on a solid quarter here. As well. Steven, I was hoping you could maybe talk a little bit more about the GMV trends. Again, really encouraging to see that inflecting positive this quarter after a number of exogenous headwinds that you have had in recent years. Wondering if you could give us any color on maybe how does GMV trends get affected by things like spikes in gas prices that we have seen earlier in the quarter and then just with easier comparisons, but also still perhaps you know, some consumer confidence overhangs from the macro environment. Just curious about how you are thinking about that GMV growth in the back half.
SM
Steven A. Michaels
Management
Yes, Bradley. Yes, we are pleased to have all the products growing at the same time. It certainly makes a nice powerful engine. And leasing is the biggest part of that engine. So I am not sure we see, like, specific demand signals in a shorter acute period of gas price spikes that it happens over time. And this year, was maybe even more muted because the gas price spike happened kind of during, albeit at the tail end of tax season. And so you know, I think I said if there was a time when it could happen, tax season's the best time because the customer is most equipped to deal with it. And the further you get away from that, the harder it gets and the more the stress compounds. We certainly are looking at it and looking to see it signals of it in the delinquency picture, from a demand standpoint, I am not sure there is a that we have observed a direct correlation with a spike in gas prices. But we are pleased to be beyond these two things that we had to talk about all of last year, and we do not wanna talk about anymore. We did say last year that absent those two things, we were kind of a lowish single-digit GMV grower, and so we are we have lapped those things. We are seeing strength in certain retailers. Other retailers, we have got work to do. To overcome some of their trends. But e-comm, as we pointed out in the prepared remarks, is almost 26% of total GMV, but Q2 high. The PROG Marketplace is outstanding and continues its really nice growth. And we have got some other things that we just reviewed, you know, two days ago. That we feel like we can put in place for the back half. We have not guided leasing GMV necessarily, but as you know, we have guided revenue. And in order to hit that revenue, you would have to assume that the gross leased assets will flip back to positive in the back half. Which will then feed into revenue and be positive in the back half. So we are pleased with where we are. We have certainly got work to do. But we have got we have got things that we know we can work on. And we are also optimistic, I would say, about some business development opportunities. Not gonna break tradition and talk about specific pipeline opportunities, but we do see some green shoots there and hoping we can get some things over the goal line before things shut down for holiday. Which is within the next kind of 75 days. So we are working on that, hopefully. And we are you know, we are really pleased with how Four's doing. Purchasing Power is coming along on plan and really has a lot of upside. And with leasing contributing as well, we are we feel like we are well positioned even in a tough consumer environment.
BT
Brad Thomas
Analyst · Bradley Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open
That is really helpful. And then I just wanted to follow-up on the point you were making for Bobby's question. That difference between the profitability range, you know, versus the write-off, are there elements that might be more sustainable over time, or are there dynamics just maybe seem transitory here for the quarter? Because obviously, that delta seems to be widening, perhaps it opens the gate for you guys to bump up the long-term target range or write-offs in support of GMV and leases and EBITDA. Just curious to get about that.
BG
Brian J. Garner
Chief Financial Officer
Hey. Hey, Bradley. This is Brian. I think, obviously, I feel like we have talked so much the 6% to 8% range over the years that it is that it has become a staple of the business. And I think it also relates credit, you know, relates confidence and credibility with our ability to manage the portfolio. But you are exactly right. This is, I think, a good case in point where you do not completely put the blinders on with respect to an absolute number. You have got to consider it in the context of the other data that you are seeing, and that is what we have done here. You know? So you know, moving that range at any given point in time in the future, obviously, would be you know, taken very seriously, and we would not do that lightly. And, you know, it would have to be data-driven and more confidence in a more sustained dynamic than just an individual quarter or a couple of quarters. And so that is probably what I would say to it. But you know, I think what you have heard from us is just the broader context, trying to evaluate all variables, and you know, here, we have updated guidance for the remainder of the year in large part because of this element and the tailwinds are outweighing the headwinds of the slightly higher delinquencies. Now I would say that these delinquencies were not well outside our internal expectations. You know, we evaluated along the way. And as Steven mentioned, we were watching early indicators. So it is well in hand. It is just a conscious decision to maintain our approach. Whether we change anything, to your question, about the ranges going forward would have to be grounded in confidence about a long-term dynamic that we felt was in place.
BT
Brad Thomas
Analyst · Bradley Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open
Really helpful. Thanks, Brian.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hong Nguyen with TD Cowen. Your line is open.
HN
Hoang Nguyen
Analyst · Hong Nguyen with TD Cowen. Your line is open
I think, I mean, a couple of quarters ago, you mentioned that when people get into delinquencies, maybe they are not able to get out, but they continue to make payments, and those customers can be very profitable for you guys even though they remain in delinquency. Maybe in light of the higher write-off rate this quarter, I mean, are you seeing a change in that kind of, you know, roll-rate dynamic from delinquency to charge-off? And I have a follow-up.
BG
Brian J. Garner
Chief Financial Officer
Okay. I think it was a little tough to hear, but I think you are referring to roll rates and what is what is happening with roll rates. And yeah. Yeah. So I think as expected, the write-off trend also is aligned with what you are seeing just slightly higher I would call it slightly higher roll-offs and/or roll rates in certain buckets. But not outside of parameters that we are comfortable with. But it is yeah, slightly higher delinquencies, which are coming from those roll-rate dynamics. But I will say that the average life of a lease, how long a lease is sticking around with us, is increasing. And so that is, I think, that is also a key dynamic to make sure we are embracing because that does that does provide the economics. Even in the face of just a slight uptick in delinquencies and slight uptick in roll rates.
HN
Hoang Nguyen
Analyst · Hong Nguyen with TD Cowen. Your line is open
Got it. And maybe on the Four business, obviously, very strong results there. And very strong guidance increase. In terms of the guidance, I think, you know, I think the entire raise in revenue passes through to the bottom line for Four. Maybe can you talk about, you know, the strength there and maybe, you know, the operating leverage that this business has given that it is also your highest margin business among the three? Thank you.
SM
Steven A. Michaels
Management
Yeah. I mean, we are as we said before, we are extremely pleased with the position that Four is in and the position that it puts itself in for the next several years. We have got material growth along with margin expansion, which is very difficult to do. And so we are proud of that and excited about the opportunities. And, yeah, we had a nice raise in our expectations for the full-year. And that will set us up for future years. We have not necessarily guided, but if you look at the three-year targets that we put out in Investor Day for Four, it, you know, can point you to adjusted EBITDA margins, you know, north of 30%. Which is certainly where we are going. So there is a lot of flow-through, when it comes to operating leverage. Based on really, Hal's question, which is a lean team that can deliver a lot of growth and without having to increase its size that much. And so there is there is good leverage off the fixed costs. And as we continue to grow, we look for opportunities on the provision and the loss rates of our cohorts not only from improvements of our data science, and our collections operations, but also composition of the GMV with increasingly more GMV coming from Four Plus subscribers that are kind of by definition repeat customers. So a lot of good tailwinds there. But not done on autopilot. The team is crushing it.
BG
Brian J. Garner
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. I was just going to quickly add, I mean, to Steven's point, implied in our guidance is just shy of 22% at the midpoint for Four, which is representing that expansion. And that is happening in the face of increased investment in marketing and some other you know, revenue generating activities. And so like Steven said, well on the path to improving those margins.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Chukumba with Loop Capital Markets. Your line is open.
AC
Anthony Chukumba
Analyst · Anthony Chukumba with Loop Capital Markets. Your line is open
Congrats on a good quarter. I just wanted to touch on you guys resumed your share repurchases, do you guys have any idea of how aggressive you guys plan to be?
SM
Steven A. Michaels
Management
Yeah, Anthony. Yeah. We have been an aggressive acquirer over the years. We took a little pause because of the Purchasing Power acquisition, and, you know, we always look at our capital return initiatives through the lens of a leverage ratio. And so we were able to delever very quickly, which shows the power of the business from a cash flow generation standpoint. We did get back in the market in Q2. And our leverage ratio is at 1.7. As of the end of June. We do not guide to you know, the level of activity or what our plans are there, but we do look to return excess, as we define excess, excess capital to shareholders and it is generally through share repurchase because, you know, the dividend is kind of set. We do have a quarter coming up here in Q4 where we expect to generate a lot of GMV. And that will need to be funded with working capital. And so that will that will come into our you know, into our calculus as well.
AC
Anthony Chukumba
Analyst · Anthony Chukumba with Loop Capital Markets. Your line is open
Thank you. And just a quick follow-up. Could you guys give me updates on your retail partner pipeline for Progressive?
SM
Steven A. Michaels
Management
Yeah. I mentioned that, like, we do not we do not talk about individual names, but I mentioned that we are optimistic on business development, but we have got work to do because when it comes to the large retailers, the window shuts here in the next kind of 60 to 75 days because of holiday preparedness. So that is really all we will comment on that.
AC
Anthony Chukumba
Analyst · Anthony Chukumba with Loop Capital Markets. Your line is open
No worries. Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Caintic with BTIG. Your line is open.
VC
Vincent Caintic
Analyst · Vincent Caintic with BTIG. Your line is open
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Question, going back to credit, instead of leasing, I do want to ask about how write-off rates are trending for the Four business and Purchasing Power? I know we usually have to wait until the 10-Q, but I am assuming that since the leasing business write-off rates were a conscious decision that the Four and the Purchasing Power businesses are likely more stable. So if you could talk about that and maybe any macro factors or other things that are driving the write-off rates for those segments? Thank you.
BG
Brian J. Garner
Chief Financial Officer
Yes, I can, or Steven can fill in any blanks. On the Four segment, so what you will see in the 10-Q, Vincent, that is coming out later today is that for Four's provision as a percentage of its GMV was effectively flat from a year-over-year perspective. And there are some things to consider when you are comparing and contrasting that offering versus leasing and Purchasing Power in that. At the top of that list is the ticket sizes, call it, you know, in a $150 range. And so it is a smaller ticket size. So that is one element. The customer is largely the same, but Four is on the front end of the curve in terms of their ability to improve their decisioning model and the operational enhancements they are making on collections. And so that is I think, an important thing to know. And they have made some that team has made some of those improvements along the way. And so you have got certainly a stress consumer from a year-over-year perspective, and gas prices are feeding into that. But they have been able to deliver this growth in the context of effectively flat provision as a percentage of GMV. On the Purchasing Power side, and this is not gonna be overly satisfying, but We did not. You will not see Q2 of last year presented with Purchasing Power given that we acquired the business earlier this year and that we are not a public company prior to that, and so they did not have quarterly reviews. But what I will say is that their provision was within our expectations. And the margins that we saw were slightly better than we expected. From a bottom-line perspective. And so we are in-- I think we are in a good place with Purchasing Power. Similar ticket size, similar customer, slightly different mechanics in terms of how the offering works. But the credit side is an area of focus certainly for us, and we are comfortable with where they came in. We think there is upside as we get better operationally and you know, deploy some of our expertise in improving that motion and Purchasing Power. So stay tuned on that. But that is probably the color I would offer.
VC
Vincent Caintic
Analyst · Vincent Caintic with BTIG. Your line is open
Okay. That is super helpful. Thanks. And then a second quick one. So you mentioned on Purchasing Power, we won an account that had over 80,000 potential customers. I am wondering how quickly you can onboard those customers or, you know, sell and onboard to those customers. Like, is that something that potentially could drive up GMV significantly quickly? Or is there like a two- or three-year sales cycle just kind of from your experience or from past experience. How should we expect that 80,000-plus to translate into GMV? Thank you.
SM
Steven A. Michaels
Management
Yeah, Vincent. On that, it is kind of similar to the leasing business in that it depends on you know, the approach of the retail partner or in this case, the employer client, how quickly they want to communicate with their employees about offering this benefit, if it dovetails with open enrollment benefits fairs and sessions that they have to get the word out, I mean, it will be you know, we stand ready to support to get the penetration to grow as fast as possible. But in this case, it will be important to get the word out in front of this all-important holiday season. I think generally, that is a two- to three-year kind of ramp to get knowledge and awareness and get registrations and get first-time buyers that then become repeat buyers.
VC
Vincent Caintic
Analyst · Vincent Caintic with BTIG. Your line is open
Okay. Great. Very helpful. Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, I am showing no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the call back over to Steven A. Michaels for closing remarks.
SM
Steven A. Michaels
Management
Thank you all for joining us this morning. I am really proud of this team. We delivered strong results across the board. With revenue, EBITDA, and EPS. Leasing returned to growth. And we ran the portfolio with discipline in a tough environment. And when I look at what we built and what we are building, an ecosystem that gives customers more ways to transact with us, a distribution model that is hard to replicate, got healthy margins, and decisioning that gets smarter with every data point. So I feel very good about where we are headed. And I firmly believe the best chapters of PROG's story are still ahead of us. And as our friend, Doug Kurland, would end all of his emails and texts, go Braves.
OP
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.