Earnings Labs

PPL Corporation (PPL)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 1, 2016

$38.69

-0.76%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the PPL Corporation Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Joe Bergstein, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Joseph P. Bergstein - PPL Corp.

Management

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the PPL conference call on third quarter results and our general business outlook. We're providing slides of this presentation on our website at www.pplweb.com. Any statements made in this presentation about future operating results or other future events are forward-looking statements under the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from such forward-looking statements. A discussion of factors that could cause actual results or events to differ is contained in the appendix to this presentation and in the company's SEC filings. We will refer to earnings from ongoing operations or ongoing earnings, a non-GAAP measure, on this call. For reconciliations to the GAAP measures, you should refer to the press release which has been posted on our website and has been furnished with the SEC. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Bill Spence, PPL Chairman, President and CEO.

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Management

Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for today's call. With me are Vince Sorgi, PPL's Chief Financial Officer as well as the presidents of our U.S. and U.K. utility businesses. Starting with slide 3, our agenda this morning begins with an overview of our quarterly and year-to-date 2016 earnings results. Following that, I'll address our 2016 and 2017 earnings forecast as we are raising the midpoint of our 2016 forecast and reaffirming our 2017 guidance. I'll provide a brief operational overview as well as an update on our UK currency hedging. Following my remarks, Vince will review our segment results and provide a more detailed financial overview. As always, we'll leave time to answer your questions. Turning to slide 4, today, we announced third quarter 2016 reported earnings of $0.69 per share compared with reported earnings of $0.58 per share in the third quarter of 2015. Year-to-date through the third quarter, reported earnings were $2.11 per share compared with $0.42 per share through the same period a year ago. Reported earnings for the first nine months of 2015 reflected a loss from discontinued operations of $1.36 per share, which resulted primarily from the spinoff of our competitive generation business. Adjusting for special items, third quarter 2016 earnings from ongoing operations were $0.63 per share compared with $0.51 per share a year ago. That represents a 23% increase on a per share basis. The increase was driven largely by an April 1, 2016 price increase in the UK, higher base electricity rates and higher transmission earnings from additional transmission capital investments in Pennsylvania and higher sales volumes due to favorable weather in Kentucky. Through the first nine months of 2016, earnings from ongoing operations were $1.86 per share compared with $1.77 per share a year…

Vincent Sorgi - PPL Corp.

Management

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Let's move to slide 9. Our third quarter earnings from ongoing operations increased by $0.12 per share, driven by $0.05 of higher earnings from the Pennsylvania Regulated segment, $0.02 from the Kentucky Regulated segment, and $0.06 from the U.K. Regulated segment. We should note that for the third quarter, we saw warmer weather compared to last year, and as a result, domestic weather was favorable $0.03 compared to last year, and weather was about $0.02 positive compared to budget. However, with the warmer winter earlier this year, on a year-to-date basis, domestic weather is only positive about $0.01 compared to budget. Year-to-date weather in the UK is negative $0.01 compared to the prior year and negative $0.02 compared to budget. So, for the company in total, weather has not been a significant driver of our financial performance this year. Let's move to a more detailed review of the second quarter segment earnings drivers starting with the Pennsylvania results on slide 10. Our Pennsylvania Regulated segment earned $0.13 per share in the third quarter of 2016, a $0.05 increase compared to the same period last year. This increase was primarily driven by higher gross margins due to higher distribution margins as a result of new rates going into effect January 1 of this year, higher transmission margins due to additional capital investments, and the favorable effects of weather. Moving to slide 11, our Kentucky Regulated segment earned $0.18 per share in the third quarter of 2016, a $0.02 increase compared to a year ago. This result was primarily due to higher gross margins due to favorable weather. Turning to slide 12, our U.K. Regulated segment earned $0.35 per share in the third quarter of 2016, a $0.06 increase compared to a year ago. This…

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Thanks, Vince. To summarize, we continue to perform very well across all three of our business segments, and we're solidly on track to deliver on our increased 2016 earnings guidance. And even with the $0.06 of restrikes we've executed for 2017, we are reaffirming our 2017 earnings guidance. The actions we've taken as part of our foreign currency hedging strategy has substantially minimized foreign currency risk through 2019, and provide greater assurance to our earnings growth targets, and we're confident in our ability to achieve competitive earnings growth of 5% to 6% a year from 2017 through 2020. The strength of our underlying business plans also provides us with confidence in targeting about 4% annual dividend growth beginning in 2017 and running through 2020. With that, operator, let's open the call up for questions.

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from Neel Mitra of Tudor, Pickering. Please go ahead. Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Hi. Good morning.

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Good morning. Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: I had a question as to how often you plan to file rate cases within the U.S. both in Pennsylvania and Kentucky now that the capital spending is coming down to some degree, given that transmission in Pennsylvania and the ECR in Kentucky is somewhat coming to an end. How often do you need to file in order to avoid under earning? And kind of what's the criterion which you'll go in for a rate case or what your earned ROE needs to be before you go in to take that risk?

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Sure. Let me begin with Pennsylvania. So, on the transmission side, we're continuing to build out many projects, and those projects are included in our five-year capital spending plan that's included in the appendix of our presentation today. So, that work will continue on. Relative to Pennsylvania distribution operations, that capital spending is coming down, and we would not expect the need to go in for a rate case in Pennsylvania during our forecast period. In Kentucky, I'll let Vic comment on our plans there.

Vincent Sorgi - PPL Corp.

Management

Well, as we just announced today, we just filed this morning, so I suspect I'd (20:54) like to see the outcome of this case before I speculate on when we would file again. But generally speaking, when we get below 10% or so, we begin to look at whether or not another case is required. I should also point out that given the current status environment of regulations, I still would expect there to be substantial expenditures associated with our ECR, both in terms of the $1 billion that was just recently authorized by the commission to meet some of our coal combustion residual requirements and then also now we have some water issues that are going to require us to file under the ECR. So, I still think there will be a lot of money running the ECR. Let's get the outcome of this case, and generally speaking, when we get below 10%, we begin to look at additional cases.

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Thanks, Vince. And just one addition, some of this could be dependent also on the results of the Clean Power Plant and how that may roll out into the future in terms of at least the Kentucky operations. Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Could you remind me the rider (21:55) that you have in place for ECR and how much that covers regarding contemporaneous spend?

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Sure. Go ahead, Vince.

Vincent Sorgi - PPL Corp.

Management

Under the terms of the statute, we're entitled to recover cost both capital and O&M associated with the Clean Air Act, and generally speaking, that handles most of things associated with not only the Clean Power Plant you've discussed the match (22:20) requirements and all of those types of expenditures. I don't have a breakdown with me of how much is in rates now and how much will be in rates, but generally speaking, it pretty broadly addresses almost all of the environmental requirements associated with our coal combustion facilities.

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

And it's near real time.

Vincent Sorgi - PPL Corp.

Management

It is near real time. We file it and we recover it almost instantaneously, I think about a 60-day delay. Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Got it. So, the Kentucky rate case that you're filing now, is that more for distribution spend? Is that the way we should look at it?

Vincent Sorgi - PPL Corp.

Management

It's for everything not associated with environmental spend. So, it would be things not associated with the ECR filing. So, for example, as Bill pointed out, we're looking for things like additional reliability on distribution system, additional automation on our distribution system, additional rebuild of our transmission systems. So, it's really driven by bricks and mortars associated with distribution and transmission, and there is some capital in there that's not associated necessarily with coal combustion. Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Got it. And then quickly, could you just update us where you are with any Compass approvals and where you are in the progress with that project, just with the first phase?

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Sure. I'll ask Greg Dudkin, President of our Pennsylvania Utilities, to address that one.

Gregory N. Dudkin - PPL Electric Utilities Corp.

Analyst

Sure. Yes, so where we are is, we have filed an interconnection request with New York ISO. We're expecting a response shortly on that. And for New York transmission projects, you have to go through something called Article VII, which is environmental citing and need process, and we're in the process of starting that up. And I should add that that Article VII process normally takes two to three years. Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Got it. Thank you very much.

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Abe Azar of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Abe C. Azar - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Good morning.

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Good morning.

Abe C. Azar - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

When do you expect new rates will be in place for the Kentucky Utilities? And can you remind us what your history is of settling rate cases there?

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Sure. The expected rates would go into effect, if approved by the commission, in July of next year. Our history of settling has been very solid. We operate, we believe, in a very constructive jurisdiction in Kentucky, and I think all of our spending in the past has been well justified, and we've had what I think are fair and balanced outcomes through settlements. So that's been the pattern thus far.

Abe C. Azar - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Great. That's all I have. Thank you.

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Sure. You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David Paz of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

Hey. Good morning.

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Good morning.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

I heard earlier someone there mention water issues. I just wanted to make sure I understood. What are the water issues you referenced earlier with respect to capital spending? How much is that? And is that already in your five-year plan?

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Yeah. Those are water effluent guidelines that have been issued by the EPA, so it's not a new issue. And we're looking to see if we have a breakdown of exactly how much that is. We may not have it here at hand, but we can get that to you.

Vincent Sorgi - PPL Corp.

Management

This is (26:24). I should also comment that we're in the process now of reviewing those regulations. They only recently promulgated, and so those regulations and how we're going to comply with them, we're also finalizing those estimates, and I suspect we'll be in a better position to comment on that at the next call.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

Great. Okay. And I presume the next call is when you will update your five-year plan to include, I guess, 2021?

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

That's correct. Yes.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

Okay. Great. And then, just on the 2019 specifically, 2019 hedges. I just want to make sure I understand. What has changed since the October 12 call? (27:05).

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Just really the fact that we were able to execute the plan that we talked about on the October 12 call. We had outlined what the strategy was, and we had executed some of that plan, but now we've completed the restrikes for 2016 and 2017, and we're able to do that at the rates that are shown on slide 14, which shows, as Vince commented, that when we get out to 2018, we've got hedges on at $1.42, well above our $1.30 that's embedded in our earnings expectations, the 5% to 6% earnings growth. So, that gives us $0.12 of potential value that we could move to hedge 2019, if need be.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

Got you. Okay. And as long as the pound is within $1.15, $1.25, you're relatively protected in 2019. And if the rate is above $1.30 or so, $1.35, that's when you say you can move to 2020 protection.

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Well, first off, let me just comment on, if the pound stays at, let's just say, $1.20 and above, what you can see on this slide is at $1.20, we would effectively be able to use that $0.12 from 2018 and hedge up 100% of the 2019 exposure. To the extent that we don't need 2018 value to hedge 2019, we would then look forward to 2020, and we could use some of that value for 2020 if we needed to.

David A. Paz - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

Got you. Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from John Barta of KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

John J. Barta - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Hi. Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. Just two quick ones. The AMI (29:04) in Kentucky, that's going to go through the rate case?

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Yes.

John J. Barta - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Okay. And then when did you say you're going to be filing the domestic rate cases? Is that today?

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Yes. We're announcing that – well, actually the filing would be on November 23 I believe it was.

John J. Barta - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please go ahead

Okay. That's all. Thank you.

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Okay. You're welcome.

William H. Spence - PPL Corp.

Operator

Okay. Operator, I think that's all the questions that are in the queue. So, let me just close the call by thanking everyone for your participation on today's call. I will note that several members of our senior management team and I will be attending the EEI conference next week. And we look forward to seeing everyone there. Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.