Earnings Labs

Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 14, 2019

$32.85

-0.81%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+3.08%

1 Week

+3.03%

1 Month

+6.16%

vs S&P

+3.23%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2018 Pilgrim's Pride Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] At the company's request, this call is being recorded. Please note that the slides referenced during today's call are available for download from the Investor Relations section of the company's Web site at www.pilgrims.com. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dunham Winoto, Director of Investor Relations for Pilgrim's Pride. Please go ahead.

Dunham Winoto

Analyst

Good morning and thank you for joining us today as we review our operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and year-ended December 30, 2018. Yesterday afternoon, we issued a press release providing an overview of our financial performance for the quarter and for the year including a reconciliation of any non-GAAP measures we may discuss. A copy of the release is available in the Investor Relations section of our Web site, along with the slides we will reference during this call. These items have also been filed as 8-Ks and are available online at www.sec.gov. Presenting to you today are Bill Lovette, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Fabio Sandri, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin our prepared remarks, I'd like to remind everyone of our Safe Harbor disclaimer. Today's call may contain certain forward-looking statements that represent our outlook and current expectations as of the day of this release. Other additional factors not anticipated by management may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in these forward-looking statements. Further information concerning those factors has been provided in today's press release, our 10-K and on our regular filings with the SEC. I'd now like to turn the call over to Bill Lovette.

Bill Lovette

Analyst

Thank you, Dunham. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today. For the full-year 2018, consolidated net revenues were $10.9 billion versus $10.8 billion from a year ago, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA of $798 million or 7% margin versus $1.39 billion [ph] a year ago or 13% margin. Our adjusted net income was $318 million compared to $707 million in the same period in 2017. Adjusted earnings were $1.28 per share compared to $2.84 per share in the year before. For the fourth quarter of 2018, net revenues were $2.66 billion versus $2.74 billion from a year ago, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA of $111 million or 4% margin versus $241 million a year ago or 9% margin. Adjusted net income was $21 million, compared to $134 million in the same period in 2017, resulting in an adjusted earnings of $0.09 a share compared to $0.54 a share in the year before. Our team members have remained focused on executing and delivering the best performance possible during 2018 against differing market conditions across our global footprint. In the US, we experienced a very difficult environment in commodity chicken, partially offset by Prepared Foods which has been accelerating, and it's improving. In Europe, we tracked the expectations in extracting synergies despite feed cost pressures in Europe during the second half. Mexico had stronger than seasonal performance in the first-half, a weak Q3 and then a recovery as we exited the year. Though we're proud of our progress we've made sin terms of our relative operating performance to the competition over the last years and all regions we're in, we're not satisfied and are continually identifying opportunities against our zero-based approach and refining our portfolio strategy to better adapt to specific market dynamics. We continue to believe this approach…

Fabio Sandri

Analyst

Thank you, Bill, and good morning everyone. For the full-year 2018, net revenues were $10.9 billion versus $10.3 billion from a year ago with an adjusted EBITDA of $798 million or a 7% margin compared to $1.39 billion or 30% margin for the year prior. Net income was $248 million versus $695 million the year prior. Adjusted EPS was $128 per share compared to $284 in the year before. Adjusted operating margins were 4% in U.S., 9% in Mexico and 4% in Europe respectively. We reported $2.66 billion in net revenue during the fourth quarter of 2018 resulting in adjusted EBITDA of $111 million or a 4% margin. That compares to $2.74 billion in net revenue and an adjusted EBITDA of $241 million or a 9% margin the year before. Adjusted profit per share was $0.09 compared to $0.54 in the same quarter of last year. Our EBITDA in the USA was $5 million after adjusting $50 million for losses related to the weather events in USA and Puerto Rico. Small birds and case ready continue to be a relatively stable market as Chicken has remained compelling to consumers despite higher availability of other properties. On the other hand similar to Q2 and Q3, large bird de-boning commodity was very challenged during most of Q4 although prices bottomed out and then recovered as we neared the end of the year. Regardless of market conditions we have the portfolio diversification in the all bird sizes, including both commodity, and more stable segments such a small bird and case-ready which is designed to maintain a more consistent margins over the long-term, while protecting the downside. As we've mentioned, we were impacted by weather disruptions due to the hurricane at some of our complexes. The $50 million adjustment is related to direct expenses…

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Ben Theurer of Barclays. Please go ahead.

Ben Theurer

Analyst

Yes. Good morning, Bill, Fabio, thank you very much for taking my question. Actually on the U.S., I wanted to follow-up on some of the qualities commentary you made looking into the first couple of weeks of 2019 and going forward. So what is it would you have seen especially on the big bird side in terms of demand, and how do you feel about pricing going more towards the grilling season as you've mentioned some of the drivers already? I'd like to understand a little bit how you prepare yourself for a hopefully better feature season into summer and what do you think more prices are going to, or is it still too early to say some of the directionary - where the direction is going that would be my first question?

Bill Lovette

Analyst

Thanks, Ben. We saw this coming as early as December and that our key customers especially in retail were planning to ramp up their features. And in January, we anticipated that what we anticipated an increase demand at retail actually was a little bit stronger than what we thought it was as a matter of fact we had to bring in meat from other size categories and our retail trade pact plans to augment the supply that we have there which is indicative of really strong demand and we think that's encouraging. We see a little bit stronger than normal January demand at retail. We've seen more featuring at foodservice. And so what that's caused is a relatively strong demand given that the supply has stayed relatively flat if not down at the end of Q4 especially in that large bird segment. So I think that set us up pretty good to see the increased pricing that we all realized in the markets indicated beginning in January. We think we're going to see normal seasonal patterns this year. We think we're going to see more foodservice promotions of chicken as we've already started to and given him them the supply that we see growing - no more than 2% to 3%. We think it's going to set up to be a fairly balanced year. So that's what we're seeing right now, and the other thing that we're doing not to just relay on commodity prices, as I said in my prepared remarks we're doing a lot in our Big Bird de-boning sector to create value added products. We're de-boning more of our legs, we're portioning more of our breasts, we turned - as I said the one plant into antibiotic - no antibiotics ever. We're increasing the sales out of that plant for that product which would get a premium over the commodity prices. So we feel encouraged at what we're seeing in the market and even more encouraged with what we're doing with our own mix.

Fabio Sandri

Analyst

On the third of care out [ph] of the Bird, Ben, we're also seeing some increase in exports as the market are reacting to the low prices of the specially the like quarters.

Ben Theurer

Analyst

Okay, perfect. And then just one out of curiosity with Tyson acquiring the assets of Brazil Foods over in Europe, clearly you've become active in Europe before that, for Moy Park transaction. And I assume you were interested in those assets at some stage as well. Could you have - comment at some way how that potentially impacts your competitive position of Moy Park in Europe? And what ultimately maybe made the difference of why you were not for reengaging in the transaction? Thanks.

Bill Lovette

Analyst

We don't think that that single transaction affects our competitive position at all. We remain focused on growing in Europe as you probably know most all of our chicken production is in the U.K. and we sell about 93% of that production within the U.K. and we get a premium for British and UK grown poultry and we are extremely satisfied with that. What we desire to do to augment our supply for our foodservice business which we expect to grow in our non-branded business, which we expect to grow is to increase production or acquire production in areas that have a lower cost basis such as Eastern Europe or perhaps parts of Asia or other parts of the world that can bring that lower cost supply for the products that the consumers don't attach a premium to. And so, we remain focused on that. We are in that market. We are traveling to that market. We're looking for opportunities and that's not changed.

Ben Theurer

Analyst

Okay. All right. Perfect. Thank you very much. I'll leave it here. Thanks.

Bill Lovette

Analyst

Thank you, Ben.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Heather Jones of Vertical Group. Please go ahead.

Heather Jones

Analyst

Good morning.

Bill Lovette

Analyst

Good morning.

Heather Jones

Analyst

First question is on tray-pack pricing. Could you give us a sense of what we should anticipate for that for you guys this year on a year-on-year basis?

Bill Lovette

Analyst

Sure. We're encouraged by our pricing in our tray-pack operations. As we've been saying for several years now, Heather, our strategy may be a little bit different from other participants in that. All of our trade back product goes to our key customers and we have an arrangement with those key customers based on quality, based on service, largely based on selling their brands. And we have a mutual agreement where we're going to keep them competitive in their marketplace. And so that allows us to move pricing when it's needed, whether it's up or down and it's proven to be really good for our key customers and obviously very good for us. We see continued growth in that category as I said we're having to augment our meat supply going into those plants, and we expect in the next 12 months to 18 months to be increasing our capacity to put more meat in a tray because our key customers in that category are growing. So we feel really good about the pricing there. We continue to evolve our mix into more value added products that consumers are asking for. And so, that's one of our best businesses in our portfolio and it's among the best of the chicken business in the U.S.

Fabio Sandri

Analyst

And Heather, I think just - just adding on what you said, we have two partnerships that are key customers because we help them grow their brand while we offer a full range of products from [indiscernible] natural to the higher order attributes like you're gaining. We don't have any contract negotiations because our prices don't follow the volatility of the commodity markets. We did not react to sharp increases in strong spot market and does not follow the troughs.

Bill Lovette

Analyst

And one other thing I would add to Heather just to remind you that we're now able to offer our key customers a national brand in Just BARE chicken to fill that segment for their customers who want a branded differentiated better for me product. And so we're able to offer a total chicken solution for diner, whether it's the rotisserie birds for the deli, the value added prepared foods products for the deli and the frozen section and for the fresh meat case.

Heather Jones

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. And then on conversions, so back in 2017 you guys converted a plant to a Baber plant to organic and I think you reference something earlier in the call that I just didn't catch. Weren't you converting another big bird plant to small bird this year? And did you say something else about another conversion?

Bill Lovette

Analyst

We converted one of our big bird plants to no antibiotics ever. We're doing more portioning for breast filets and tenders in our big bird plants. And then longer term we do expect that demand for our small bird de-bone products with the key customer will grow and will place the opportunity to convert or the possibility to convert a big bird plant to that category as well. So that's still on our plan.

Heather Jones

Analyst

Okay. But that's not happening right now.

Bill Lovette

Analyst

That's not happening right now.

Heather Jones

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Ken Zaslow of Bank of Montreal. Please go ahead.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst

Hey, good morning everyone.

Bill Lovette

Analyst

Good morning.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst

My first question is what is the process and timing through to which you're able to pass through pricing in Europe for the higher lead cost, I understand that more in the U.S. and I understand that dynamic, can you just talk about the dynamic and the timing?

Bill Lovette

Analyst

It's different for different customers Ken. But typically 10 weeks to 13 weeks is the lag time. Now in the cases where we don't have a formula in place we go much sooner. The other thing that I would mention that we're changing is typically or historically I'll say only the feed ingredients have been in those escalator agreements. We're now including not only feed ingredients but we're including utility cost changes, labor cost changes and other packaging and other cost changes so that we get the full effect of the cost impact as it happens to increase. And our team is going out much quicker to our retailers and we're employing our key customer strategy in Europe just like we have in the U.S. where we say it is our obligation and our responsibility to keep our key customers competitive in their markets for their customers and our consumers. And we see that paying off handsomely as we have increased our volume with the key customers that we desire to grow with.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst

So we would expect not just current quarter that you're in but the quarter after that we will start to see a meaningful change in the margin structure for where you are today to more normalized levels in not this quarter, but the quarter after that that 10 weeks to 30 weeks is that how to think about it?

Bill Lovette

Analyst

Yes, that that you should see a price response 10 weeks to 13 weeks after the actual cost goes up.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst

And my second question is, can you talk about the foodservice demand. You know, as you said in your prepared remarks that you had more wing featuring. Can you talk about other featuring, how that sort of progressed throughout the year, what type of strength that will lead to in pricing?

Bill Lovette

Analyst

Yes. In a general sense, we do see more foodservice features planned for this year, particularly on wings as we're experiencing high demand for wings right now and the price response has been commensurate with that, but we think we'll see tender, great tenderloin demand and through promotions and also breast fillet or sandwiches and other products, so we believe we'll see much stronger foodservice demand through the year for 2019 than we saw in 2018.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Jeremy Scott of Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Jeremy Scott

Analyst

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. Just wanted to follow-up on the comments on Europe, so, your contracting strategy, it sounds like you're passing through some of the operational risk to your customers. Can you talk about some of the key offsets that you might receive from that, so lower premium on the pricing or just generally a more stable margin but typically I can see the upside if you do get a price increase.

Bill Lovette

Analyst

I would go back, Jeremy to our key customer strategy whereas, before we tried to serve virtually everybody and anybody in the marketplace and we, just like we did in the U.S. seven or eight years ago, we pulled back and we've deployed our resources and innovation and service and quality and mix to the key customers that we wanted to grow with. And so, what that allows us to do is make price less important in the total value proposition. And it does a couple of things. One, it makes our mix better, allows us to create a more profitable mix. It also allows our key customers to grow in the products that they want to feature with their customers and have greater amount of customer loyalty there. And so, it's a win-win for both of us. And so, we've taken on a lot of business with some key customers and then commensurately we've lost business with some customers that we desired to not do as much with.

Fabio Sandri

Analyst

And also, we have the potential increase in efficiency with all the synergies that we generated through the integration with [indiscernible] mix. We are ahead of the $50 million target over the two-year period. That was a fundamental factor for the good results year over year despite the $30 million having in because of the increase in these prices.

Jeremy Scott

Analyst

Right. And then just on the U.S., you made some comments around labor and how it may impact the ramp in chicken capacity, so first what are you seeing in your plans in terms of retention and is it [indiscernible] bid up in the wages for some of your key workers? And then secondly, are your internal expectations for chicken production growth over the next couple of years meaningfully lower than the external expectations just because of this problem?

Bill Lovette

Analyst

I think our expectations for chicken supply growth are probably in line with most of what you see. 2% to 3% this year, I wouldn't expect a material change in 2020 over 2019, even with the new operations that are be - are going to be coming on board. The availability and supply of labor is definitely putting pressure on the ability to grow. We are increasing our wages. I don't know Fabio, if you have a …

Fabio Sandri

Analyst

$50 million…

Bill Lovette

Analyst

-- $50 million year-over-year, so definitely we're having to pay more to get labor in addition to that we're installing more automation than we would have - had this not been the case. Giving up some yield, but in order to keep our plants running at capacity we realized, we're not going to have the labor supply that we would in and therefore have to automate and so we're also continuing to develop - trying to develop some proprietary automation to do some of the more difficult tasks in our plant to alleviate that pressure on labor. And I think every company is facing a - virtually that same pressure.

Jeremy Scott

Analyst

All right. And just on that to - your investment, can you share what percentage of your fresh chicken volumes today are sold as to both late quarters? And what's the expectation after you increase this de-boning mix?

Bill Lovette

Analyst

It's minimal in terms of commodity like ours especially compared to five years or seven years ago. And I think we have one plant in our Big Bird network where we don't de-bone legs, and it's a plant, is close to the port that is more conducive to export. So we're wrapping up leg de-boning in we're ramping up like the [indiscernible] in all of our plants.

Fabio Sandri

Analyst

Yes, the big investment in terms of automation has been on de-boning the front of the bird.

Jeremy Scott

Analyst

Got it, got it. And maybe just last one, China implications, is there a reasonable expectations for P&L impact if we do get the reestablishment of the pork trade?

Bill Lovette

Analyst

I think that would be net positive. Would it be material? I'm not sure I would go that far, but it would certainly be positive.

Jeremy Scott

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Akshay Jagdale of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Akshay Jagdale

Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. So I wanted to ask about demand. I know you mentioned future activity. It looks like it's going to be better this year, but can you just give us some context like now that we've had - we've gone through 2018. How would you characterize sort of what happened last year right? I mean obviously demand was pretty weak and much weaker than anyone expected. So when you look back and you look at all the data available like how would you summarize sort of what happened last year and then I have a follow-up for this year.

Bill Lovette

Analyst

Last year obviously with the trade disruptions we had particularly in pork, we had cheaper pork prices competing with all proteins and retailers took advantage of those lower wholesale prices in pork and to some extent beef and put most of their features on beef and pork, very little featuring on chicken last year and we saw commensurate decrease in demand for chicken through 2018. We began in talking to our key customers in mid Q4 of 2018 they indicated that that was going to change in 2019 beginning in January and sure enough that that's been the case. We've seen stronger demand actually for chicken at retail in January. And it's moved through February and as I mentioned, Akshay, we're having to augment more of our supply in our retail plants than it has been normal because of that increased demand and that's pulling me from that big bird sector which is in some years fairly normal. We didn't get that last year and that's primarily what caused the large bird de-boning products to be much lower in price is because they weren't flowing into those retail plants as normal. And so what's different in 2019 versus 2018 is we're back to that normal pattern of big bird meat flowing into retail plants to augment the supply and at least in our case, I can't speak for everyone, but we've seen it a little bit stronger early this year than has been more.

Fabio Sandri

Analyst

Just to quantify, Akshay, the feature activity was 23% lower in 2018 when compared 2017. And in Q4 feature activity was 37% lower last year, we'll go back to 2017.

Akshay Jagdale

Analyst

Okay that's super helpful. So you're saying - just so I understand that it's retail features because that's what you're talking about, but related to the big bird segment because there's an all - there's sort of an overflow out of that segment into retail that typically happened that was negatively impacted last year by this retail feature reduction. Am I understanding that correctly?

Bill Lovette

Analyst

That's exactly, right.

Akshay Jagdale

Analyst

Good. Good. And then so let's, can I ask about the foodservice side, the restaurant side of things. So how are you thinking about demand there and how it may be contributed to the weakness in 2018 and what's the thought in 2019 because what I hear, I'm sure you hear is too. Obviously McDonald's focused on fresh beef, everyone followed, there's a lot of beef available. Last year there was a lot of pork available last year. So it's going to be even more beef and pork available this year. So can you give us a high level view of like foodservice demand, what happened in 2018 and what maybe you're seeing in 2019.

Bill Lovette

Analyst

In 2018 largely the same condition in foodservice as we saw in retail. What's different in 2019 versus 2018 is particularly early in the year we've seen much more featuring of [indiscernible] and tenders and we've seen a commensurate price response to that and we think that will carry through the year and then we think we'll see more restfully or sandwich promotions in foodservice. Sandwich offerings, chicken sandwich offerings as retail continues to outpace virtually anything else on the menu and we don't think that will change this year. And I think foodservice operators they don't want to overdo one particular product. So we think chicken will get more of the share promotions in 2019 at foodservice than we did in 2018.

Fabio Sandri

Analyst

And also as the foodservice prepared for their promotion, there is some preparation requirement. They cannot change the menus on the fly. And if you look at the prices of ground beef it's actually increased year-over-year, while the prices of Jumbo meats than [indiscernible] has been increasing.

Akshay Jagdale

Analyst

Got it. One last one and this is your performance I guess relative to the industry, however you look at it right. You talk a lot about diversification, prepared foods and certainly I see it - I recognize it…

Fabio Sandri

Analyst

Yes.

Akshay Jagdale

Analyst

-- but perhaps for investors who just look at let's say one metric like 0.3% margin in U.S. right, like that's the lowest it's been since 4Q 2012. Can you just help us put into perspective that number right like if you weren't diversified, where would that be several years ago? One of your competitors has talked about like a 600 point gap between their margins and sort of the industry the industry margins as a good proxy. And in the fourth quarter, it looks like you guys outperformed the commodity margin by a 1,000 basis points. So I do see the benefits of mix and everything you talk about, but can you help us just think through how you think about it and the impact structurally today versus when you started this journey? Thank you.

Bill Lovette

Analyst

Sure. Thanks. Great question, actually. So our long-term incentive plan for management is solely based on our margins versus our visible competition in each of our regions. And so, for Europe it's clear with - if you see the publicly available results versus our results, we're - where we're clearly the winner there, and in Mexico clearly the winners there. In the U.S., we're also - we had a really for 2018, we had a really great year with the exception of two months October and November. Through the summer, we had as big a spreads versus our competitors as we've had in probably any year that I can remember. And then when we got the December numbers recently and our spread was back in December to where it was through the summer so clearly we like our mix we like our diversified portfolio and we like our relentless pursuit of operational excellence. And so, if you go back and look at the cut out for 2018, go back and compare that to where it was in 2011 which was a really tough year for the whole industry, and an extremely challenging year for Pilgrim's from a profitability standpoint, and then compare what we did in 2018. I think you see the results of our strategy, the results of our diversification, the hard work of our team, and I don't think that's going to change in the future, as a matter of fact we continue to try to refine that mix to make that spread larger because as we make the spread larger our management team and our overall team benefits from doing that.

Fabio Sandri

Analyst

And actually, I think our strategy and diversified portfolio used to be measured against the changes in the cycles and over time. We don't expect to compare every single quarter, as we don't have the higher than average exposure to stock markets, for a higher than average exposure to [indiscernible] but over the last five years although appeared with significant volatility on prices both domestically and internationally our margins were higher than all our public competitors in all of our geography and much higher than the average company compared to our benchmark.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference over to Bill Lovette for closing remarks.

Bill Lovette

Analyst

Thank you for joining us today. We look forward to 2019 and believe the outlook for chicken consumption globally remains positive as consumers continue to eat chicken as a compelling healthy alternative. Our diverse portfolio, differentiated products and key customer strategy in conjunction with our geographic footprint will continue to generate a more consistent performance and minimize margin volatility compared to peers despite specific market conditions. We'll continue to identify new opportunities including Europe both organically and through acquisitions to refine our portfolio and offer differentiated customized products while pursuing our key customer strategy. I'd like to thank everyone in the Pilgrim's family as well as our customers, and always appreciate your interest in our company.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.