Earnings Labs

Pool Corporation (POOL)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 22, 2015

$215.72

-0.26%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Pool Corporation 3Q 2015 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mark Joslin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead. Mark W. Joslin - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Thank you, Kate. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our call. I would like to remind our listeners that our discussion, comments, and responses to questions today may include forward-looking statements, including management's outlook for 2015 and future periods. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today. Information regarding the factors and variables that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results is discussed in our 10-K. And with that, I'll turn the call over to our President and CEO, Manny Perez de la Mesa. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Mark, and good morning to everyone on the call. I'd like to start my comments this quarter with a bit of reflection. As many of you know, our mission is to provide exceptional value to our customers and suppliers, creating exceptional returns for our shareholders, while providing exceptional opportunities for our employees. Without providing exceptional value to our customers and suppliers, we cannot achieve an exceptional return for our shareholders or provide exceptional opportunities for our employees. To that end, we have invested consistently over the course of over 20 years to further our value proposition and further distinguish us in the marketplace. It is our employees who make our exceptional value proposition a reality every day, the same employees who have been provided exceptional opportunities,…

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question is from Matt Duncan of Stephens. Please go ahead.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Hey, good morning guys. This is Will (11:03) on the call for Matt. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Congrats on the great quarter. I just wanted to start – you mentioned the California drought and the water restrictions. I wanted to start there. And I was wondering if you're still growing above that 5% year-to-date rate that you were in the second quarter and possibly update us, maybe a little more color around the education process of the pool efficiencies there and how that's being received in the market. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure. When you look at our California Blue business, our California Blue business has been pretty solid all year, growing 5% in the quarter and 6% year-to-date. And what we've done there is we, together with other important members of the industry, including the industry association, as well as local builders, remodelers, so basically our customer base and important manufacturers in the industry, we've gotten together efforts and it's almost like a very basic blocking and tackling of providing those that are making decisions at the local water boards and the rest on, in fact, how much water is or is not consumed by existing pools, as well as ways to mitigate water loss through evaporation, and also reflecting on the economic contributions that swimming pools as an industry make in California. And when you translate the economic contribution as well as the employment created by the pool industry in California, how that translates to per gallon of water, we rank very favorably. In fact, we rank ahead of many other industries, including the energy industry, the agricultural sector. So, there's a lot of industry that benefits – and what we've seen, there's a lot of industries where our economic contribution far exceeds theirs on a per-gallon basis. So that's the efforts that we've undertaken on…

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Very helpful, Manny. I appreciate that. And sticking with the Green business a little bit, outside of California, have you seen an overall improvement from the 2Q mark of – I think it was down 7% (15:30) within the total company Green business? Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes, overall the Green business is down, I believe it's 2% on a year-to-date basis, so that's – and that includes not only the impact in California, but even more so the fact that we discontinued certain product lines that were unprofitable. So overall, our Green business profitability is up on a year-to-date basis despite the decline in sales.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Okay, and last thing from me and then I'll hop back in queue. On the share repurchases, trying to think about where your stock is today, how you guys are thinking about share repurchases going forward through the remainder of the year. Should we expect you guys to remain active throughout the fourth quarter as we head into 2016? Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: When you look at our share repurchase program, it really comes back to our capital structure, both in the near term and longer term, as well as the cash generation that we have in the business. In the 10-K, we describe our priorities in use of cash and those priorities start with the ongoing investments in our business that we continue to do to further our value proposition. Secondly, acquisitions, to the extent they make sense, to help us enter new markets or enhance our share position in markets that we are weak in, and then third, dividends which are basically targeted at 35% of net income. And then after that, it's a matter of where we are in our capital structure, so our target debt to EBITDA on a trailing 12-month basis is 1.5 times to 2 times. We finished the quarter at 1.65, which is, as Mark mentioned, at the lower end of our targeted range, so you can expect us to continue to buy shares during the course of time to stay in that 1.5 times to 2 times, ideally a little higher than 1.65. The timing of that, it's really a matter of all the rules surrounding when we can buy back shares and – but I think what you've seen over the course of years now from us is that we're pretty deliberate and we continue to do that every year, that ends up being some quarters are a little more than others, but a lot of that is really outside of our control given that we set established parameters and the market just solved itself over the course of time.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Great. Thanks a lot, guys. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from David Mann of Johnson Rice. Please go ahead. David M. Mann - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC: Thank you and congratulations on the 20-year run. Look forward to the next 20 years. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, sir. Appreciate it, David. You've been around for 20 years. David M. Mann - Johnson Rice & Co. LLC: Yeah. Thank you for reminding me. A question, you talked about the recovery you saw in Texas to normalized growth. That seems to contrast with some just general comments from consumer-related companies about slowdown in Texas. So can you just talk a little more about what you're seeing, whether it's just pockets of strength, or what you envision for the health of your Texas market? Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, if you look at Texas as a market, first of all, you've got an installed base of pools. And that installed base of pools, a number of those continue to age and there are opportunities to either replace the equipment or, for that matter, remodel the pool. And both those areas are areas that we've been growing with not only in Texas, but throughout the country. And that continues to bode well. When you look at new pool construction in Texas, for the year, it is marginally down year-on-year given largely to the hit that we had in terms of activity or reduced activity in the April, May, and early June timeframe when it was really wet and everything got pushed back. We have seen, in August and September, new pool permits creep up a little bit above last year. But still, I think for the year, new pool construction…

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Ken Zener of KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

Kenneth R. Zener - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Mark W. Joslin - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Morning, Ken.

Kenneth R. Zener - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

So Manny, since you're concerned around plastics increasing heat in Texas, maybe you guys are going to get into the nursery business as well. So, if you just described this year in terms of headwinds or tailwinds next year's average, because Texas, California in 2Q was offset by a milder northern climate, and later – weather is what I just heard you summarize. El Niño is talked about and that would seem to bring a lot of rain. I mean, do you think this – could you – because there's different regions, right, Texas, California, North helped you this quarter. Can you quantify – that drag that we had in California and the deceleration we had in Texas which are very large markets was lost sales. It's hard to imagine that, that North really just offset that. So it seems like you would have a tailwind potentially next year associated with that. And because California recovered – that was what concerned me most about last quarter was the deceleration in California. Was there really a big product mix deceleration, so chemicals slowed down in California and that's what accounted for the decline? I mean I didn't explore that with you last quarter. But I mean, was there particular segments that slowed down in California that then recovered or were the competitors acting differently? If you could just maybe do a little more postmortem on that because that was such a big surprise last quarter and now it's gone. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure. Going back to California, California started off from a winter standpoint and you live in California, so you know this firsthand. California started the year with very mild winter, so it started off with a very strong start…

Kenneth R. Zener - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay... Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Go ahead. I'm sorry.

Kenneth R. Zener - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

No, that was it. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And then in terms of Texas, I mean, Texas, really we lost a couple of months or really our sales were down for those couple of months year-on-year, very unusual; picked back up to normal as soon as the rains went away and we did get that in essence value back in the Northeast, Midwest, and Canadian markets with a little bit of an extended season.

Kenneth R. Zener - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. I appreciate that detail. But the only reason I ask is because – it obviously impacted your impression of earnings in the second quarter. And Mark or Manny, I mean, do you guys really think you're going to be a public company in 20 years, the way you're buying back stock? Mark W. Joslin - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Well, 20 years is a long time, okay. But you know what? Those that still hold on to their shares 20 years from now I think will be very richly rewarded.

Kenneth R. Zener - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Garik Shmois of Longbow. Please go ahead.

Mark Zikeli - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Hey, guys. This is Mark on for Garik today. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Mark Zikeli - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

I just have two questions. Just looking at the base business, you've done a really good job at chipping away at SG&A over the last couple of years and operating margin, this quarter was the best 3Q we've seen I think in some time. You talked on currency and labor a little bit. Just wondering like are we witnessing a structural change in the business's overall profitability right now or is it more so related to timing and seasonality? Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, I think it's better, Mark, if you look at things from a year-to-date standpoint. And quarter-on-quarter is the same thing. What you've seen is, in our history, up until 2006, you saw a gradual increase of our operating margins year-on-year as we continued to invest in people, technology, tools, et cetera. And therefore, become progressively more efficient in providing our value to the customers and our suppliers and doing that more efficiently. So that pattern continued steadily until 2006. 2007 through 2009 was... Mark W. Joslin - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: By the way, our operating margins were 8.8% in 2006. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Which is a previous peak. Mark W. Joslin - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Previous peak. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So therefore what happened is 2007 to 2009, you saw a significant reduction, basically 80% reduction in new pool construction in the United States, as well as close to a 40% reduction in replacement activity, the more somewhat discretionary areas. Huge hits which affected us adversely in our structure but the way we look and manage our businesses longer term, so we didn't make any short-term decisions or short-sighted decisions. We continued to make investments as we needed to and we took a hit – knowingly took a hit in 2007, 2008, 2009 where our margins contracted given the industry impact on the reduced new pool construction and reduced replacement and remodeling activity. Beginning in 2010, that was really more of a transition year. But after 2010, you have seen a gradual recovery of remodeling and replacement activity. You have seen very little recovery overall in terms of new pool construction over that period of time. But you've seen more consistent recovery on the replacement and remodeling activity. So therefore the industry has begun to recover, still 70% less new pools being built this year than were built back in 2005. But through that, we continue to invest, continue to get better, continue to gain market share, and continue to gain efficiencies in how we do our business. So you've seen a constant gradual process of recovery and increase in operating margins really following along the same patterns that we had from our genesis in 1994 through 2006.

Mark Zikeli - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. Just in terms of guidance, you have a $0.05 spread between the upper and lower end of the range. Just wondering what are some of the puts and takes there? That's it for me. Thanks. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure. Puts and takes, well we've got two-and-a-half months left to go, so we have certain expectations on sales. That could be plus or minus a little bit. Gross margins, again our assumptions are basically flat for the quarter but that could be plus or minus 10 bps to 20 bps depending on mix of products primarily. So those are the two biggest factors, not anything to speak of on the expense side. So that's really the main factor. Is there anything else Mark that you can think of? Mark W. Joslin - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Just a reminder, this time of the year we're really talking about Southern market, year-round markets and the Northern markets really shut down. So weather becomes important to those markets if the El Niño should hit sometime next week, next month, whatever. That would obviously have an impact given the over-weighting of the Southern market business to our results. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Net-net $0.05 is a comfortable range given the fact that we've got two-and-a-half months left to go.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Anthony Lebiedzinski of Sidoti. Please go ahead. Anthony C. Lebiedzinski - Sidoti & Co. LLC: Hi. Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking the question. So now that 2015 is almost over, Manny, what is your expectation for pool construction overall plus also any possible outlook for next year? That would be very helpful. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure. Currently – again some states lag in their reporting. We see the bigger states on a monthly basis. Overall we're still looking at 60,000 to 65,000 pools for the year domestically. And then for next year, we're expecting that to improve a little bit, probably to the tune of 65,000 to 70,000 for next year. Again, it pales in comparison to the 215,000 to 220,000 that the industry did back in 2005, but I think here what we're looking at is the lack of a robust recovery in single-family home construction, particularly the medium to upper end of single-family home construction. We've seen new home construction recover on the multi-family side, which is really not reflective of the environment that would prompt people to put a pool in their existing homes. So I think until such time as you see a real recovery of the single-family homes, particularly on the mid to upper end of single-family homes, you won't have the environment for a really robust recovery where we could see 15,000, 20,000 more pools built a year. And again, we're waiting for that to happen. We're anticipating that will happen. It's a little later than we would have expected it to happen at this juncture. But nonetheless, we're still plugging along and gaining share and building out our services and tools so we can compensate for…

Operator

Operator

There are no additional questions at this time. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Manny Perez de la Mesa for any closing remarks. Manuel J. Perez de la Mesa - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Kate, and thank you all for listening. Again, we've had a very good 20 years. Some of us in the company were disappointed that we were ninth in terms of 20-year return. Okay, we were in the top 1%, but still we were ninth, so we have eight more to go. Hopefully we will be there at the next mark in five years. Our next earnings call is scheduled for February 18 when we'll discuss our full year 2015 results. Have a great day. Thank you.