Manuel J. Perez De La Mesa
Analyst · Wunderlich Securities
Yes. Thank you, Brent, that's great to provide that perspective for the investor or shareholder. When you look at our business and you look at the depressed level of replacement remodeling activity where we have witnessed a significant decline in consumer behavior -- or pool owner behavior from 2007 to 2009, we saw -- we began to see some of that recovery in terms of that behavior in 2011. We are continuing to see that now, and again building materials is probably the greatest testament to that. With that certainly growing much greater than the installed base of pools or anything along those lines. So that is beginning to come back, and we see that gradually happening over the course of the next 5 to 7 years to get back to normalized levels by, according to our schedules, 2018. There is also, coupled with that behavioral change, we also have the increasing age of those pools, which are the ones that are most ripe for replacement and remodeling activity. So those 2 factors, the aging of the installed base coupled with gradual recovery of consumer behavior to normalized levels, we believe are going to be a very -- provide us a little bit of a tailwind overall over the next 5 to 7 years in that -- in those product categories in those segments. In the case of new construction, we have a little bit more of a conservative view there. And given the fact that this year, real estate values appear to be stabilizing after, whatever, 5 years of decline, we believe that, that is good, and that, as those real estate values begin to gradually appreciate and real estate consumers view their homes as more of an investment than an expense, we believe if that begins to happen, that will begin to contribute to a recovery of new pool construction to more normalized levels. But in that particular case, as we incorporate in our investor presentation and the like, we believe that, that's going to have a later impact and being more of a benefit to us, the industry, and to us directly in the back half of this decade. And therefore, with negligible impact in the near term in terms of '12, '13, '14. So basically, what you've got is, just to summarize, you've got an existing base, which is growing, of pools which need to be maintained and drive all our maintenance and repair type expenditures or sales and expenditures on the part of our -- of the consumer. That's going to grow at a modest rate, we're going to grow faster than that because we always take share as we provide more value and do that better for the customers, that's a very rational thing, it's part of our legacy and our history given the investments we've made. But the part 2 of that is we'll have tailwinds given first, driven by the replacement remodeling and then later on primarily driven by new pool construction.