Manuel J. de la Perez
Analyst · Lehman Brothers
In terms of new pool construction our expectation is that new pool construction will in fact be down again in 08 versus 07. If you look at the domestic business, domestic pool construction was approximately 210,000-212,000 pools in 2005. That number decreased to approximately 200,000 in 2006 and down to approximately 150,000 pools in 2007. That’s quite a reduction, 50,000 pools. When you look at the markets that make up that reduction, Florida was impacted the most going down from 43,000 to 23,000 pools or 20 out of the nation’s 50,000 pool decrease. Now I don’t expect Florida to go from 23 to 3 so therefore and that being the second largest market in the country, what’ll happen is that I expect that overall new pool construction will be down but the order of magnitude in terms of headwind and that then I look at as being what is being taken out of the market by the reduced level of new pool construction? And on average we sell $5,000 to $6,000 now for the product and that includes not only the legacy pool products but also complementary products. We average $5,000 to $6,000 per pool so therefore that being said a 50,000 unit reduction in new pool construction which is what took place in 07 reduced the market by $250 to $300 million. In 2008 I don’t expect frankly for it to be down another 50,000 units because again I look at the components and I look at the fact that already Florida is at a pool build rate that goes back, you’ve got to back a good 25-30 years before we were at that level of pool build and I don’t see another 20,000 unit reduction. When I look at Arizona and Vegas and California collectively, the West, those three states they are basically at half the 2005 rate. While I don’t expect that to go up, in fact I expect it to go down, I don’t expect it to go down and virtually disappear in 08. Net a 10 to 20% reduction from the already very low levels of 07 is our range of expectation in terms of new pool construction for 2008.
Dan Whang – Lehman Brothers: Thank you for that detailed review there. Just moving over to this year’s pre-buy program, could you provide a little bit more detail around that perhaps in terms of the pricing, payment terms and what you expect the net impact on margins to be in 08?