Earnings Labs

Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Sun, Nov 6, 2016

$102.86

+0.43%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Pinnacle West Capital Corporation Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ted Geisler, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

Ted Geisler

Analyst

Thank you, Christine. I would like to thank everyone for participating in this conference call and webcast to review our third quarter 2016 earnings, recent developments and operating performance. Our speakers today will be our Chairman and CEO, Don Brandt; and our CFO, Jim Hatfield. Jeff Guldner, APS's Senior Vice President of Public Policy; and Mark Schiavoni, APS's Chief Operating Officer are also here with us. First, I need to cover a few details with you. The slides that we will be using are available on our Investor Relations website, along with our earnings release and related information. Note that the slides contain reconciliations of certain non-GAAP financial information. Today's comments and our slides contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations and the company assumes no obligation to update these statements. Because actual results may differ materially from our expectations, we caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements. Our third quarter Form 10-Q was filed this morning. Please refer to that document for forward-looking statements, cautionary language as well as the risk factors and MD&A sections, which identify risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our disclosures. A replay of this call will be available shortly on our website for the next 30 days. It will also be available by telephone through November 10. I will now turn the call over to Don.

Don Brandt

Analyst

Thanks, Ted and thank you all for joining us today. This year continues to be in line with our expectation and keeping us on pace with our guidance for the year. Although, we experienced mild weather during August and September our positive customer growth and disciplined cost management continue to support our ability to meet our financial commitments. Our board also approved 5% dividend increase affective with the December payment continuing the predictable return of capital to our shareholders. Before Jim discusses the details of our third quarter results I’ll provide several updates on recent operational and regulatory developments. Our operations team did an excellent job maintaining the generating fleet and the electrical grid again this summer. The Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station performed and Unit-3 entered its planned refueling outage on October, 8. Although this summer was mild compared to last, temperature soared to 118 degrees on June 19 and demand for electricity peaked at 7,051 megawatts. On a weather normalized basis, this was the highest peak demand for APS in nine years. Our growing customer demand further demonstrates the need to continue expanding the grid while adding peaking resources. One data point worth noting, is that when our customers were using the most energy at around 5:30 PM on June 19, rooftop solar on our system was producing only 28% of its capacity. Meanwhile utility scale solar was producing 72% of its capacity because most utility scale panels are on trackers that move with the sun. A couple of hours later when our system demand was still above 7,000 megawatts essentially not changed rooftop solar production plummeted to zero. This scenario is not unique to our peak day and highlights the importance of electric grid at all hours as a day. On average, our customers now reach their…

Jim Hatfield

Analyst

Thank you Don and thank you again, everyone for joining us on the call. This morning we reported our financial results for the third quarter 2016 which excluding historically mild weather were in line with our expectation. As summarised on Slide 3 of the materials for the third quarter of 2016, we earned $2.35 per share compared to $2.30 per share in the third quarter of 2015. Slide 4 outlines variances in our quarterly ongoing earnings per share. Looking at gross margin, the largest single driver during the quarter was unfavourable weather which decreased earnings by $0.09. In aggregate, this year’s third quarter was the mildest in the last 10 years where we experienced one of the hottest July’s on record followed by some of the mildest August and September conditions we’ve seen in the last 20 years. Sales in the third quarter of this year compared to the third in 2015 added $0.02 to gross margin. In total, weather normalized retail kilowatt hour sales were essentially flat compared to last year but similar to the pattern we saw in the second quarter of this year, the sales trends by customer class were mixed and ending up yielding a positive gross margin effect. And lastly our transmission and LFCR adjuster continued to add incremental growth to our gross margin as designed contributing $0.09 per share collectively. Now turning to operating expenses which combined contributed $0.02 per share. Lower depreciation and amortization expense and lower other taxes each contributed a $0.01 to earnings. Lower D&A included higher expenses resulting from additional plans, which were offset by lower depreciation related to the extension of Palo Verde sale leaseback. In line with our expectations as we’ve previously indicated operations and maintenance expense were flat in the third quarter of this year relative to…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] our first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

So quick first question, not sure if you can say too much. I think, if I saw right in the prepared remarks, you said you've shortlisted proposals, and will be finalizing a resource selection in the coming months.

Don Brandt

Analyst

That’s correct.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Can you confirm whether you guys have been shortlisted and/or discuss any proposals that you all are pursuing as part of this RFP had process, be it for thermal and/or any other kind of resource?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst

No. At this point until we make a final selection, it’s a confidential process.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Got it, but coming months, any kind of better sense by year end or 1Q 2017?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst

Yes, it will be by year end.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Got it. Okay great. Can you elaborate a little bit, and I know you started to in the commentary, but on the changes in the capital expenditures through the forecast period, I notice they've ticked up a little bit. What drove that, if you will?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst

So I think, we look at 2016, 2017, 2018 up around $30 million a year most of it is distribution spend.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Got it. So nothing too remarkable?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst

No, I think what you’ve seen the need to the cost to hook up commercial a little higher and it just, fine tuning our estimates as we get here unit the end of the year.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Got it. And just a follow-up on the last resource question. Any implications and/or initial thought process around the proposed hike in the RPS?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst

Nothing. I mean, we’ll see what happens it’s a proposal. Comments are due by the end of November and we’ll see ultimately where that goes, on that subject though obviously an increase and would give us more upside to CapEx which is not really baked into anything at this point.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst

Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Quick question about the economic conditions, that looks like they are steadily improving with each reporting period. I'm just wondering at what point do you think that translates into higher customer growth, higher load growth, and ultimately higher rate base, and everything else.

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

So as we continue to see a further solidification of the market incremental new business we expect to the 2016 through 2018 you’ll see a continual upward slope in customer growth resulting retail sales and what that means in terms of CapEx remains to be seen.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

All right. And can you comment at all on the headlines of late regarding the election, and everything else that might be happening out there?

Don Brandt

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Michael there’s as you pointed out, there is a lot of headlines both local, national and industry media. It is what it is, the election is not over with. You can get some pretty good reliable information at the Federal Election Commission website. The Arizona Secretary of States website and at pinnaclewest.com our political participation policy.

Michael Weinstein

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ali Agha with SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

For the last two consecutive quarters, we've been seeing flat weather-normalized sales growth, customer growth has been pretty consistent, anything to read into that? Are we seeing more changes in usage patterns, or too early, or can you just comment on this trend here?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

We’re not really seeing anything different in usage [ph] patterns per customer obviously every residential that’s added from a new units going to use less synergy then equivalent one or 10 years ago that’s just the [indiscernible] world we’re in we’re 0.3% for the year and in line with guidance.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. And then if I look at the timeline on the rate case process, as you laid out, it looks like if there is to be a settlement, that January through March period would most likely be the time period before hearing but after all of the staff intervener testimony comes in?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. Rate design January 27 hearing March 22 that would be a window, where a settlement could occur.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Got it. And then this target that you guys have been working on that, at a minimum, you target to earn this 9.5% ROE, should we assume that continues through this next two or three-year cycle of CapEx that you have laid out for us? Is that still a good benchmark to think about going forward?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Well, we file for a rate case with 10.5% ROE. So assuming we get decent outcome in the rate case that supports the longer term growth Ocotillo, Four Corners, SCR’s [ph] deferrals and so on, yes that would be a good benchmark to think about.

Ali Agha

Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim. Please proceed with our question.

Shahriar Pourreza

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with our question.

Let me just ask Mike's question slightly differently. It’s been quarter after quarter, you've seen an improvement in the economic indicators, and the jobs and the housing. So the question is really when do you think that will transpire into your guidance, into your customer growth assumptions? Because right now, you're still at 50 basis points to 150 basis points of growth, but what's the lag between what you're seeing from an economic standpoint, to what you're seeing in your guidance?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with our question.

Well our guidance 2016 through 2018 from a sales growth perspective is a half of 1% sales on low end to 1.5% on the top end and I think as history has shown us in the last couple of years, slightly better improvement in customer growth and sales as we move through the timeframe. As I referenced earlier, with the low vacancy rates in apartments and low mortgage rates, you’re seeing household formation 25 to 34 begin to increase across the country and that’s holds true for the Metro Phoenix are as well. So it’s going to be better in 2018 than it is this year. 2017 should be better than 2016. Exactly what that means, think you’ll have to look to our guidance.

Shahriar Pourreza

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with our question.

Okay, great. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Charles Fishman with Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

Charles Fishman

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

Don, I just wanted you to clarify something that I'm confused about. You said the staff is recommended a new customer category, or that rooftop solar customers should be in a partial requirements class? Is that correct?

Don Brandt

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. I’ll turn to Jeff to comment on that.

Jeff Guldner

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

Charles, so one of the findings that’s right now in the recommended or opinion or is recognized as the residential customers or the rooftop solar are partial requirement customer. So it’s somewhere to what we’ve seen on a commercial side where you got a customer brings their own generation and we treat those folks differently on the commercial side than a customer that’s the full requirements customer and so that’s a helpful finding in that recommended opinion order because it reflects the nature of that customers use.

Charles Fishman

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

So Jeff that would lead you then, I mean essentially what the staff is saying is consistent with your proposal of having this demand piece for the rooftop solar people, correct?

Jeff Guldner

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

That’s the argument we’ve made, is that these folks still use the demand side of the grid and so if you look at a commercial customer that’s basically how we set the rates, is to recover the demand, the cost to service that reflects the fact that they bring their own generation and so again, this is going to be subject to discussion at the Open Meeting in December and we’re obviously getting ready for that conversations, but it’s the helpful finding that just reflects the facts of the system.

Charles Fishman

Analyst · Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, thanks a lot Jeff. Appreciated. That’s it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Ridzon with KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

Just as a follow-up, is it been determined that they are going to be treated with demand charts or is that still open to discussion?

Don Brandt

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

That’s still open to discussion.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

And back to usage, sometimes we've seen extreme weather things mess with people's weather norm [ph] models, could that be going on here?

Jim Hatfield

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

I mean it’s possible but really what we have is stronger commercial growth than we’re seeing on the residential side which is sort of supporting the sales growth as we sit here today. I always say weather is an art, not a science, but it wasn’t so extreme like you would see in the solar [ph] month, you sort of tend to skew your degree days.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst · KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, thanks for the color.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore. Please proceed you’re your question.

Greg Gordon

Analyst

Sorry, I joined the call late. Have you commented on the integrated resource plan, and can you comment on it any further detail? And as a part of the shortfall, would one of the potential solutions be to acquire some of the power blocks out there? There's a lot of gas combined cycle sitting there underutilized, and I know you probably don't need base load generation. But at the values you might be able to pay to get some of those power blocks, even if they were used for intermediate or peaking, could that be a potentially good value proposition to solve that shortfall?

Don Brandt

Analyst

Greg, I did cover in my remarks and we’ve had a couple of questions on it, but we’ve shortlisted a number of resources, we expect to resolve it by the end of the year and announce our plan going forward and beyond that we’re not going to - we’d prefer not to get in any detail of where we’re at now in the process, it’s confidential.

Greg Gordon

Analyst

Okay, thanks. I’ll see you in a few days.

Operator

Operator

We have no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments.